Gee SCREAMER !! Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 19 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said: That isn't true however many times you say it. That was clear from the points we picked up when Bielik was fit and the fact he got us off the bottom. But I guess and I'm loathe to admit it, the job was too great for him to be left with no experience bar Rosenior, Given and Walker. Rooney has a tattoo from the stereophonics lp title just enough education to perform. Needs to get that lasered off. If he can’t manage to create a competing format missing one player he is totally incompetent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyMac5 Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Nuwtfly said: ? I still enjoy being a Derby fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
falconram Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 How ironic it would be, we beat Rotherham to get out of division 3 they could be the ones to send us back there. Have this team got the bottle for it not to happen ck- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ck- Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 58 minutes ago, WhiteHorseRam said: I really hope so. But I fear we are well and truly trapped in Losers' Loop - losing like winning is a habit. And we have no momentum seemingly. The Wendies will feel good after a draw, have stuff to work on after today and will now study our our performance closely. And they have growing hope. They will have a simple game plan: let us score first. Foolproof! Jourdan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamworthram Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 21 minutes ago, Ken Tram said: 100% does not mean a mathematical certainty! It means that to a given number if significant figures, the probability is 100%. I could have written, 99.9%+ But, actually, running the model 10,000 times, resulted in Wycombe avoiding relegation zero times. This implied that the chance was less than 1 in 10,000. This equates to it being less than 0.01%. So, considering your observation that recent trends might alter the results of each match by a few percentage points, if the chance of Wycombe avoiding relegation was less than 0.01%, and because I gave the other figures too one decimal place, it didn't seem sensible to write greater than 99.99%. My mistake, maybe, was to write 100% instead of 100.0%. ---- If that doesn't make sense, let me give you an absurd example to illustrate what I mean. Most people would agree that the probability of the moon continuing to exist next week is 100%, but that does not mean that it is an absolute certainty. Maybe nothing is an absolute certainty. But that doesn't mean that we should not use 100% to describe probabilities. So, you would agree that it's not mathematically impossible that Wycombe could overtake us? which is what I disputing in your original post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaspode Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Spanish said: why wait to sack him? we cant afford it 2 weeks ago, today or next week That’s exactly the point - if Mel sacks him now, he’ll end up picking up the tab for the remainder of Rooney’s contract (along with paying off the contracts of the other chancers currently employed as coaches). No way will he want that extra cost if he’s got a signed agreement with Alonso. Rooney is untouchable until the takeover goes through or gets officially abandoned….and he’s way too proud/stubborn to walk away…. Edited May 1, 2021 by Gaspode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick Rams Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 1 hour ago, Tamworthram said: I agree, the chances of Wycombe staying up are remote but it is still mathematically possible. Yep... just like it's possible to play a round of golf course with a score of 18.. it's possible but highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gee SCREAMER !! Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, ck- said: They will have a simple game plan: let us score first. Foolproof! Doesn’t seem to make any difference either way now. ck- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rev Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Tamworthram said: So, you would agree that it's not mathematically impossible that Wycombe could overtake us? which is what I disputing in your original post. Do you have to be so literal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamworthram Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Patrick Rams said: Yep... just like it's possible to play a round of golf course with a score of 18.. it's possible but highly unlikely. Exactly. You'd never say it's "mathematically impossible" to play a round of golf with a score of 18. There is probably more chance of Wycombe overtaking us than me winning the lottery jackpot but, winning is still a mathematical possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamworthram Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Rev said: Do you have to be so literal? Only when I'm feeling argumentative. ? Edited May 1, 2021 by Tamworthram Rev and Chester40 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G-Ram Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 Its mental to think we could finish on the same number of points as wycombe when they win on the last day and we get beat Rample 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanish Posted May 1, 2021 Author Share Posted May 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, Gaspode said: That’s exactly the point - if Mel sacks him now, he’ll end up picking up the tab for the remainder of Rooney’s contract (along with paying off the contracts of the other chancers currently employed as coaches). No way will he want that extra cost if he’s got a signed agreement with Alonso. Rooney is untouchable until the takeover goes through or gets officially abandoned….and he’s way too proud/stubborn to walk away…. Gaspy, there maybe something about him that he doesn’t want to be as a rat leaving the sinking ship. Not to us, I guess we pretty much would welcome it, but to the outside world it would look awful. We are stuck with him, him with us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richinspain Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 Wycombe can mathematically stay up, but they need Wednesday to beat us, and they themselves win by 13 more goals than Wednesday. Can't see it myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaspode Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Spanish said: Gaspy, there maybe something about him that he doesn’t want to be as a rat leaving the sinking ship. Not to us, I guess we pretty much would welcome it, but to the outside world it would look awful. We are stuck with him, him with us I’m quite hopeful that when the worst happens (as it inevitably will next weekend) he will hold up his hands and say that he should have done better, he wishes us all the best and walks away - I think that would look far better to the outside world than him digging his heels in and demanding to see out his contract…. At least that’s what I’d like to hope, not what is likely….. Spanish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BramcoteRam84 Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 To stay up Wycombe would need to win something like 12-0 to overcome Wednesday beating Derby. Fair play to them taking it to the last game though. Well today means 43 points will not be enough for us which I think we all knew anyway. If we had held on for a point today I think that would’ve been enough. A draw against Wednesday will be enough as I don’t see Rotherham getting 4 points from their last two games. The bookies will have us as favourites to stay up. We don’t even need to win next week. But no one has any faith this team Can do what is necessary. What will be will be. But Rooney will keep his job if we survive........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaaLocks Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 We're 11/10 with Skybet to get relegated. I know that some have bet on the opponents in play off finals to hedge the costs - surely this one has to be worth a punt? Evens in a one off match for a team that has lost six on the bounce - take the emotion out of it and you have to say it's worth thinking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken Tram Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, Tamworthram said: So, you would agree that it's not mathematically impossible that Wycombe could overtake us? which is what I disputing in your original post. I didn't think that I said that it was impossible, but if I did then I do apologise! Of course, "100%" does not mean that something is a mathematical certainty! When someone writes 100%, then it includes all probabilities that are at least 99.5%. If something has a probability of 99.6%, then we can choose to write it as 100%, if we do not want to use decimal points. And if we want to use percentages to the nearest 0.1%, then 100% includes all probabilities that are at least 99.95%. So, 99.98% could be written as 100%. I guess that people are taught in schools that 100% means absolute certainty, but I think that is only 23.7% true. And, also, I believe in statements like, "110% effort," which so many people complain about in relation to percentages. If 80% effort is not good enough, and 100% effort is what is expected, then 110% effort must be more than expexted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highgate Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 16 minutes ago, Spanish said: why wait to sack him? we cant afford it 2 weeks ago, today or next week I agree. To be honest, I'd rather no manager at all than having Wayne Rooney as manager. But I can't see him being sacked with one game to go, so I'm not getting my hopes up in that regard before the season ends at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Comrade 86 Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 1 hour ago, Ken Tram said: I could try updating the model to see what the relegation probabilities it churns out after today's games! I guess that the difference between the model, and the betting odds, should tell us the effect of not taking into account recent trends? Good work mate! Whatever parameters you used it's hard to crab the results. I've just run a very basic calculation and came up with the following: Derby - 56% Rotherham - 61% Wednesday - 88% Wycombe - 100% No modelling as such indeed quite notional as I've essentially run a book on the outcome of the remaining games with my objective head on and my numbers are a mile off way off the figures from the professional odds compilers. What does your modelling suggest now if it's not too big a job to re-run the numbers? Ken Tram and Andicis 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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