Ken Tram Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 8 hours ago, Tamworthram said: Mmmm. So you’re saying there is no “mathematical possibility” of Wycombe winning both their games and Derby losing both theirs? I agree it’s unlikely but it’s still mathematically possible. Also, did you include actual score lines? It could quite easily come down to goal difference. A bit of harmless fun but, none the less of little comfort. It doesn’t seem to take into account the actual opposition we have to play against and how all teams have evolved during the season. How can the form of the teams seven months ago (if you’re using the whole season) be a factor? Thanks for the feedback. 100% did not mean that it was a certainty. 100% meant that the probability was 100% to the nearest 0.1%, meaning the chance of Wycombe not being relegated was less than 1 in 2,000. You are right that Some can stay up mathematically! There is a possibility of that, but I think that the goal difference in all four games would have to have been 3, and also require results going particular ways in others ... and the probability of all of that was less than 0.05%, so to the nearest 0.1%, the chance of Wycombe being relegated was 100.0%. TigerTedd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andicis Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 Just now, Ramley Apple said: Sod off. Just offering my opinion. And a well thought out one, at that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highgate Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 There is still hope. There is every chance an exhausted Rotherham will fail to win on Tuesday, leaving us needing just a point against Sheff Wed. We saw how poor Sheff Wed were today.... it's definitely possible, even playing as poorly as we are. Either way Rooney has to be sacked as soon as the season ends. DCFC1388, r_wilcockson, Fla Ram and 8 others 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamworthram Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ken Tram said: Thanks for the feedback. 100% did not mean that it was a certainty. 100% meant that the probability was 100% to the nearest 0.1%, meaning the chance of Wycombe not being relegated was less than 1 in 2,000. You are right that Some can stay up mathematically! There is a possibility of that, but I think that the goal difference in all four games would have to have been 3, and also require results going particular ways in others ... and the probability of all of that was less than 0.05%, so to the nearest 0.1%, the chance of Wycombe being relegated was 100.0%. I agree, the chances of Wycombe staying up are remote but it is still mathematically possible. Ken Tram 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highgate Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 I mean every chance Rotherham lose....where is the edit button gone ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteHorseRam Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Highgate said: There is still hope. There is every chance an exhausted Rotherham will fail to win on Tuesday, leaving us needing just a point against Sheff Wed. We saw how poor Sheff Wed were today.... it's definitely possible, even playing as poorly as we are. I really hope so. But I fear we are well and truly trapped in Losers' Loop - losing like winning is a habit. And we have no momentum seemingly. The Wendies will feel good after a draw, have stuff to work on after today and will now study our our performance closely. And they have growing hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimRam Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 36 minutes ago, ketteringram said: Would anyone feel like celebrating if we stay up? Nope purely for the reason it will be more expensive to rebuild and progress than going down to league 1. I really could not stand another season like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highgate Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, WhiteHorseRam said: I really hope so. But I fear we are well and truly trapped in Losers' Loop - losing like winning is a habit. And we have no momentum seemingly. The Wendies will feel good after a draw, have stuff to work on after today and will now study our our performance closely. And they have growing hope. You might be right...but to be honest I expect both teams to be a bag of nerves next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCFC1388 Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 We need to be in a position where a draw is enough, cant see us winning. Need Luton to do us a favour midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramley Apple Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 (edited) Rotherham's form is as dreadful as ours, running on five points from their last ten games, and one point from their last six, so I can't see them suddenly getting three points from their remaining two games. Which means all we need against Wednesday is a draw. OK we're terrible but survival is still very much possible. Edited May 1, 2021 by Ramley Apple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken Tram Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 9 hours ago, Tamworthram said: Mmmm. So you’re saying there is no “mathematical possibility” of Wycombe winning both their games and Derby losing both theirs? I agree it’s unlikely but it’s still mathematically possible. Also, did you include actual score lines? It could quite easily come down to goal difference. A bit of harmless fun but, none the less of little comfort. It doesn’t seem to take into account the actual opposition we have to play against and how all teams have evolved during the season. How can the form of the teams seven months ago (if you’re using the whole season) be a factor? Thanks for the other feedback. Pleased to answer. I did look at scores. It didn't make a huge difference to the teams that got relegated because ... in order for teams to end up with the same number of points ... and for it to affect relation ... it would mean teams winning and losing (obviously), and therefore it shifted goal difference in a particular direction. Obviously, you are right that there is a flaw in using whole season form. However, equally so, there is a problem in using recent form. For example, if a team has one one and drawn one in the last five games; what might happen in the next two games? Win, draw or loss? Also, the results of football matches is variable. Norwich can lose to a team like Wycombe. So, therefore, the distribution of home and away form, seemed to be a reasonable way to determine the distribution of wind, draws and losses. Looking at the last half of the season might be more accurate. And introducing trends might lead to the irredentists changing a bit. But! Another advantage of whole season tackles is that it includes matches against teams of all different abilities. Perhaps, I was silly to give the percentages to the nearest 0.1%. I suspect that the error in the percentages is not that much. Maybe as much as plus or minus 10 percent. I think that the data that I used was probably accurate enough to equate to the privacy of match results, and then ran it 10,000, to get a feel for the actual chances of each team finishing in the bottom three. Maybe I missed some obvious flaws, but I thought that it gave a way to assign some likelihoods to relegation. And I certainly found the 26% figure for Derby surprising because I thought that it chance of relegation was much lower. But Wycombe's home record includes winning 6 out of 22 games. That's between ⅓ and ¼. So, when we try to work out all of the different permutations, it's easy to think, "The bottom club will not be likely to win!" But when the chance is between ⅓ and ¼, it is not an impossibility. If Wycombe have lost most of their recent games - showing recent form - we could assume that they have little chance if winning any games. But the overall season tells us that they might still have an almost 1 in 3 chance at home! And, then, there is the end of season factor, where safe teams may not be motivated, and so on. And I think that probably affects trends more than anything. Anyway! That was my thinking. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abu Derby Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 We can’t even see out a draw. There is next to zero hope left IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyMac5 Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 2 hours ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said: Yawn, let’s see it on the pitch. Apparently they’ve been bonding with walks on the beach. Serious I’ve not made that up. It’s like play school. This lot, particularly the experienced players have had every opportunity. They've not done it. Waghorn a couple of days ago on the official site saying the players had to 'leave it all on the pitch'! Where did Waghorn and Fozzy leave theirs then, which pitch cos it wasn't Swansea's. WhiteHorseRam and The Scarlet Pimpernel 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ketteringram Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 I believe we are 71st out of 72 league clubs, for goals scored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gee SCREAMER !! Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said: This lot, particularly the experienced players have had every opportunity. They've not done it. Waghorn a couple of days ago on the official site saying the players had to 'leave it all on the pitch'! Where did Waghorn and Fozzy leave theirs then, which pitch cos it wasn't Swansea's. You’ll note my comment of Forsyth again before kick off. Passenger of a player who should have being playing somewhere else 4 seasons ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken Tram Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 20 minutes ago, Tamworthram said: I agree, the chances of Wycombe staying up are remote but it is still mathematically possible. 100% does not mean a mathematical certainty! It means that to a given number if significant figures, the probability is 100%. I could have written, 99.9%+ But, actually, running the model 10,000 times, resulted in Wycombe avoiding relegation zero times. This implied that the chance was less than 1 in 10,000. This equates to it being less than 0.01%. So, considering your observation that recent trends might alter the results of each match by a few percentage points, if the chance of Wycombe avoiding relegation was less than 0.01%, and because I gave the other figures too one decimal place, it didn't seem sensible to write greater than 99.99%. My mistake, maybe, was to write 100% instead of 100.0%. ---- If that doesn't make sense, let me give you an absurd example to illustrate what I mean. Most people would agree that the probability of the moon continuing to exist next week is 100%, but that does not mean that it is an absolute certainty. Maybe nothing is an absolute certainty. But that doesn't mean that we should not use 100% to describe probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyMac5 Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said: You’ll note my comment of Forsyth again before kick off. Passenger of a player who should have being playing somewhere else 4 seasons ago. There are a couple of choices I struggle to understand - Fozzy at all, and Waghorn every game bar the one after Rooney dropped him. This game he didn't even sub Fozzy and 10 minutes for Sibley, why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken Tram Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 (edited) 15 hours ago, Ken Tram said: Chance of Relegation 00.3% Huddersfield Town 26.1 % Derby County 83.3 % Rotherham United 90.3% Sheffield Wednesday 100.0% Wycombe Wanderers >99.99% Wycombe Wanderers I could try updating the model to see what the relegation probabilities it churns out after today's games! I guess that the difference between the model, and the betting odds, should tell us the effect of not taking into account recent trends? Edited May 1, 2021 by Ken Tram Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanish Posted May 1, 2021 Author Share Posted May 1, 2021 56 minutes ago, Highgate said: There is still hope. There is every chance an exhausted Rotherham will fail to win on Tuesday, leaving us needing just a point against Sheff Wed. We saw how poor Sheff Wed were today.... it's definitely possible, even playing as poorly as we are. Either way Rooney has to be sacked as soon as the season ends. why wait to sack him? we cant afford it 2 weeks ago, today or next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuwtfly Posted May 1, 2021 Share Posted May 1, 2021 20 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said: But I guess and I'm loathe to admit it, the job was too great for him to be left with no experience bar Rosenior, Given and Walker. Jourdan, Comrade 86, Ramarena and 2 others 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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