Relegation watch

[Jimbo Ram]

2 minutes ago, StarterForTen said:

I must have a masochistic streak because a bit of me would now feel short changed if this didn't go down to the last minute of the last game...

Nooooooooooooo

[Comrade 86]

Here's a dog and frisbee metaphor for what I think when I hear 'it's back in our hands'...

 

[GenBr]

36 minutes ago, Bob The Badger said:

Yeh you would mind.

Everybody says that, but one, perhaps two seasons of mediocrity and people would be utterly fed up.

It's human adaption.

99% of the time we want things to be a little bit better.

And then when things are a little bit better we want them to be a tad better again.

Nah. I've made peace with the fact that we'll never compete with the parachute teams and we'll probably be in this league or lower forever. 

As i said i'll take a few seasons of mediocrity if it gives me some exciting games/players again. Slow buildup is the best we can hope for, so no point losing patience with it. We're not going to do a Leeds and appoint a world class manager or run the club the same as Brentford or cheat like Watford, so we have no other options other than slow really.

[Foreveram]

5 hours ago, Grumpy Git said:

I guess this means no piss-up in Covent Garden this year?

I will be there in June, you don’t have to have a football match as an excuse ?

[ramboy63]

1 hour ago, LondonRam2 said:

Rotherham losing again is a big bonus for us.  They now only have one game in hand and are 4 points behind us, although their GD is still better than ours.  They can only catch us if they get 4 points out of 9 and we don't get any more points.

Wycombe can't catch us unless they win both games with big scores and we lose both ours, also with big scores.

Sheff Wed have the same GD as us and can only catch us if they win both their 2 games and we don't get any more points.

This weekend could therefore see all this resolved, but I wouldn't be surprised if we do end up in a last day shoot out with Sheff Wed or Rotherham or even both for the prize of staying up.

A point against Swansea would really help to make the last day shoot out less likely, so come Saturday that's what I'll be praying for, along with Sheff Wed & Rotherham not getting 3 points.  If that's the outcome then we're safe unless Rotherham win their last 2 games.

Sheff Weds dont need to win both games if we lose at Swansea a draw for them against Forest and any win against us see them on the same points but they will by then have a better goal difference than us by virtue of us losing our last two games

 

 

[Turnstile]

7 hours ago, RoyMac5 said:

Because they've played so many games and scored a few goals! Bloody typical, keeping that goal-machine Snip out and that man-mountain of a CB Wisdom on the bench? Is that what you mean? ?

Edit: oh and potentially playing for a contract, just like Wisdom & Snip?

I don’t think either Waghorn or Wisdom have been bothered about another contract at Derby.I think they realised as soon as Rooney said “these are my players”  (the January loans) their days were numbered.Others must have realised it too. I don’t think either will be missed .The loanees have not pulled any trees up though.We can only hope player recruitment is better in the future(permanent and loans).

[erathirea]

Rotherham to win on Saturday, Derby to sneak a draw, Wednesday to draw. Rotherham lose to Luton on Tuesday.

 

Derby draw with Wednesday, Cardiff beat Rotherham. Derby stay up by 3 points from Rotherham

 

Rooney to come out and say he's glad he managed to get us past the safety mark of 42 points. Someone will then point out that's for the Premier League, and he'll look confused.

[plymouthram]

On 28/04/2021 at 16:44, GenBr said:

Nah. I've made peace with the fact that we'll never compete with the parachute teams and we'll probably be in this league or lower forever. 

As i said i'll take a few seasons of mediocrity if it gives me some exciting games/players again. Slow buildup is the best we can hope for, so no point losing patience with it. We're not going to do a Leeds and appoint a world class manager or run the club the same as Brentford or cheat like Watford, so we have no other options other than slow really.

Football is a funny old game (Jimmy Greaves quote). Barnsley stayed up last season on the fact Wigan had a points deduction of 12 points. This season they have achieved a play-off place. So never right off any team competing in the Championship. It will always throw up an outsider in the promotion frame as well as the relegation places. I will agree the teams with parachute payments do have an avantage over the rest. Barnsley could be the bookies outsiders to reach the Premier league, but what happens in football is never predictable.

[Ruud Aralliss]

Chris Hughton today insisted Nottingham Forest will do everything in our power to try and win the game v Sheffield Wednesday,he said we are obviously aware of rumours circulating that we will be wanting to lose,that is 100% not true,finally Hughton said,"I'll pass you over for a few words with this weekends Goalkeeper Lewis Grabban.

[kevinhectoring]

13 minutes ago, plymouthram said:

Football is a funny old game (Jimmy Greaves quote). Barnsley stayed up last season on the fact Wigan had a points deduction of 12 points. This season they have achieved a play-off place. So never right off any team competing in the Championship. It will always throw up an outsider in the promotion frame as well as the relegation places. I will agree the teams with parachute payments do have an avantage over the rest. Barnsley could be the bookies outsiders to reach the Premier league, but what happens in football is never predictable.

But I think Barnsley’s newish owners are loaded, no? So it just reinforces the fact that if you have financial firepower, it’s easier to challenge the parachuters 

[Van der MoodHoover]

2 minutes ago, kevinhectoring said:

But I think Barnsley’s newish owners are loaded, no? So it just reinforces the fact that if you have financial firepower, it’s easier to challenge the parachuters 

Financial firepower plus an absence of a build up of huge losses as a result of many catastrophically poor hiring and transfer decisions.... 

[Tamworthram]

50 minutes ago, kevinhectoring said:

But I think Barnsley’s newish owners are loaded, no? So it just reinforces the fact that if you have financial firepower, it’s easier to challenge the parachuters 

They haven't spent big though have they?

[plymouthram]

48 minutes ago, kevinhectoring said:

But I think Barnsley’s newish owners are loaded, no? So it just reinforces the fact that if you have financial firepower, it’s easier to challenge the parachuters 

??? Barnsley have only spent out on 3 players, Herbie Kane £2.6m, Dominik Frieser £720k and Michal Helik £720k, the rest came in on free transfers. They sold Jacob Brown for £1.98m so they have'nt splashed that much cash to compete with the parachuters. Their top goalscorers, Cauley Woodrow (signed 2019) and Daryl Dike on loan from Orlando city in Feb 2021 have made the difference with their goals. Having conceded 46 goals (thats only 7 less than the Rams).

We find/sign a couple of decent strikers without spending silly money, we too could be in the same boat as Barnsley.

[Ken Tram]

 

A little bit of spreadsheet analysis came up with the following probabilities of relegation:

00.3% Huddersfield Town

22.2% Derby County

82.2% Rotherham United

95.3% Sheffield Wednesday

100% Wycombe Wanderers

 

If we just base it on recent form, then I think the bottom three clubs get relegated.

But because the outcome of matches can be more variable than recent form, I used the season's home and away form to calculate the probability of each outcome for each of the final matches involving the bottom five clubs.

I ran all of the matches 10,000 times, resulting in 10,000 versions of the final league table.

And then I asked Google very nicely to count how many times each team ended up in the bottom three.

Some good news (for Derby) is that the mathematical possibility of being overtaken by Wycombe Wanderers didn't arise once.

The surprising news for me was that the chance of Derby being relegated was higher than I had expected.

[Ken Tram]

UPDATE.

Unfortunately, one of my rows, had an error. It makes things even worse. ?

 

00.3% Huddersfield Town

26.1 % Derby County

83.3 % Rotherham United

90.3% Sheffield Wednesday

100% Wycombe Wanderers

[Ramarena]

3 hours ago, plymouthram said:

??? Barnsley have only spent out on 3 players, Herbie Kane £2.6m, Dominik Frieser £720k and Michal Helik £720k, the rest came in on free transfers. They sold Jacob Brown for £1.98m so they have'nt splashed that much cash to compete with the parachuters. Their top goalscorers, Cauley Woodrow (signed 2019) and Daryl Dike on loan from Orlando city in Feb 2021 have made the difference with their goals. Having conceded 46 goals (thats only 7 less than the Rams).

We find/sign a couple of decent strikers without spending silly money, we too could be in the same boat as Barnsley.

Can’t be right.......everyone on here keeps telling us how terrible our players are and how no manager could do anything with them.

So in not sure a couple of strikers will change anything.........surely?

[Ken Tram]

Do you want to play …

Will Derby get relegated … ?

Flip two coins. If you get two-tails, then down we go!

There is still good news. Statistics are often a load of crock!

Edited May 1, 2021 by Ken Tram

[TigerTedd]

5 hours ago, Ken Tram said:

Do you want to play …

Will Derby get relegated … ?

Flip two coins. If you get two-tails, then down we go!

There is still good news. Statistics are often a load of crock!

And technically Wycombe do still have a tiny chance of staying up. Probably less than 1 in 10000 though. But there is a world somewhere in the multiverse where Wycombe stay up. 

[Tamworthram]

5 hours ago, Ken Tram said:

 

A little bit of spreadsheet analysis came up with the following probabilities of relegation:

00.3% Huddersfield Town

22.2% Derby County

82.2% Rotherham United

95.3% Sheffield Wednesday

100% Wycombe Wanderers

 

If we just base it on recent form, then I think the bottom three clubs get relegated.

But because the outcome of matches can be more variable than recent form, I used the season's home and away form to calculate the probability of each outcome for each of the final matches involving the bottom five clubs.

I ran all of the matches 10,000 times, resulting in 10,000 versions of the final league table.

And then I asked Google very nicely to count how many times each team ended up in the bottom three.

Some good news (for Derby) is that the mathematical possibility of being overtaken by Wycombe Wanderers didn't arise once.

The surprising news for me was that the chance of Derby being relegated was higher than I had expected.

Mmmm. So you’re saying there is no “mathematical possibility” of Wycombe winning both their games and Derby losing both theirs? I agree it’s unlikely but it’s still mathematically possible.

Also, did you include actual score lines? It could quite easily come down to goal difference.

A bit of harmless fun but, none the less of little comfort. It doesn’t seem to take into account the actual opposition we have to play against and how all teams have evolved during the season.  How can the form of the teams seven months ago (if you’re using the whole season) be a factor?

 

[Kernow]

It’s going to come down to who can hold their nerve that little bit more. I think all three of us are capable of getting something today given the fact that our opposition have lost motivation their previously would’ve had.

Sheff Wed & Rotherham know they can both go down today. We cannot. Hopefully that’s pressure that weighs just a little too much on their shoulders...