Relegation watch

[Rampage]

7 hours ago, TigerTedd said:

My point is, and always has been, that we are in a relegation scrap with about 6 other teams. So when 5 of those teams lose, and just one wins, I’m not going to get my knickers in a twist. 

for some reason, many in this thread think that we’re only in a relegation scrap with Brum. When they win a match, we’re doomed. But there are plenty of other things that have to happen before Brum even become a factor in our survival. 

plan a: we win our games and don’t even need to think about anyone else’s results.

plan b: Rotherham don’t pick up enough points to catch us.

plan ? Coventry don’t pick up enough points to catch us.

plan d: Birmingham don’t pick up enough points to catch us. 

plan e: Huddersfield don’t pick up enough points to catch us.

only if all those plans fail, do we get relegated. We can’t expect all the results to go in our favour every week. But if the majority do, I call that a good week. And if I had to choose 2 or 3 of those results to go in our favour, I’d choose from the top of the list. Brum winning the off match is not a problem, as long as everything else goes in our favour. 

And to go back to the very original point of all this, if Brum win, and open up a big gap between 21st place and Rotherham, and cutting them adrift, sapping their confidence, it’s not a bad thing. It’s a win / win. Brum loose, they’re less likely to catch us. They win, Rotherham are less likely to catch us, which is actually priority 1 here. If Rotherham stay where they are, it doesn’t matter if Brum catch up with us. 

Wendies are not inclined to go down.

[Leeds Ram]

1 hour ago, plymouthram said:

Saturday fixture is Huddersfield v Rotherham (they both can't win, but both could drop points). Coventry are away to Bournemouth(not easy). Birmingham at home to Stoke (looks easy, but not a given). Sheff Wed have QPR away (hard on to call). Derby home to Norwich.

I don't get that Sheff Wed are hitting some form, their last 10 games reads 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats. Over their last 5 matches they won 2, drew 1 and lost 2, thats slightly better than the Rams last 5 by 3 points but they are still 8 points behind us even though they have one game in hand. In the bottom 7 only Derby and Wycombe have one mid week game to play, so thats in their favour for recovery from one game to the next. Other interesting fixtures where teams in the bottom 7 play each other and this means one or both could drop points; Coventry v Rotherham 15th April, Rotherham v Birmingham 18th April, Derby v Birmingham 24th April, Huddersfield v Coventry 1st May and last game of season Derby v Sheff Wed.

Lets say Sheff Wed win their game in hand (which is on Tues 13th at home to Swansea). That will put them 5 points behind us assuming we lose to Norwich and they beat QPR this Saturday. They would then have to get 2 points or more than the Rams in the next 4 matches. Wednesday's being Bristol, Blackburn, M'boro and Forest. Derby's 4, being Blackburn, Preston, Birmingham and Swansea. If they gained just 2 points more than us, then they would have to win at Pride Park to go above us on goal difference. I'm not going predict who has the easy or hard fixtures left to play(because this is the championship). What I will state is: Points in the bag is better than games in hand and I know goal difference can change but currently only Rotherham's is better than ours in the current bottom 7 teams.

My point is that Birmingham, Huddersfield, and Coventry are so close it's anyone's guess whether we'll finish above them or not so it's not wrong to treat them as borderline level. Assuming they won't pick up points thus have an advantage over them is as wrong as assuming they'll automatically leapfrog us. Atm, due to the games in hand we don't know so treating them as level seems fair enough. 

Again you're using a 10 game marker without giving any justification. sheffield wednesday over the course of the season have averaged just over a point per game (taking into account the 6 point deduction) and they are hitting some form getting 7 points from the last 5 compared to our 4, I'm not saying they will reel us in but it's a possibility and not a tiny one.  

On Sheffield Wednesday you've got your maths wrong. If they win their game in hand and they beat QPR (assuming we lose) they go 2 points behind us not 5. If they matched our other results and beat us at pride park they'll survive and we'll go beneath them. Sheffield Wednesday technically have a better goal difference than us too having scored more goals. 

[plymouthram]

1 hour ago, Leeds Ram said:

My point is that Birmingham, Huddersfield, and Coventry are so close it's anyone's guess whether we'll finish above them or not so it's not wrong to treat them as borderline level. Assuming they won't pick up points thus have an advantage over them is as wrong as assuming they'll automatically leapfrog us. Atm, due to the games in hand we don't know so treating them as level seems fair enough. 

Again you're using a 10 game marker without giving any justification. sheffield wednesday over the course of the season have averaged just over a point per game (taking into account the 6 point deduction) and they are hitting some form getting 7 points from the last 5 compared to our 4, I'm not saying they will reel us in but it's a possibility and not a tiny one.  

On Sheffield Wednesday you've got your maths wrong. If they win their game in hand and they beat QPR (assuming we lose) they go 2 points behind us not 5. If they matched our other results and beat us at pride park they'll survive and we'll go beneath them. Sheffield Wednesday technically have a better goal difference than us too having scored more goals. 

You are right I did get my Maths wrong, If that did work out we would be playing Sheff Weds on the last game of the season both sitting on the same points(who would have the better goal diff is not so easy to predict). Personally I don't think we will going into that May 8th fixture with the worry of having to win it, to stay in the championship.

[TigerTedd]

1 hour ago, Rampage said:

Wendies are not inclined to go down.

How many wendies have you known to come to that conclusion?

Edited April 7, 2021 by TigerTedd

[Spanish]

 a bit early but I have a few moments spare

Birmingham City15:00Stoke City

do Brum have the credentials to maintain their progress?

AFC Bournemouth15:00Coventry City

AFCB to continue their winning run

Huddersfield Town15:00Rotherham United

Udders will be pooing themselves over this game.  Rovrum need to bounce back also.  A draw the best hope

Queens Park Rangers15:00Sheffield Wednesday

wendy surprised me last week but they need to put together a run when they are 7/8 points from safety.  They need 2 wins and hope one of the rivals lose both theirs, the longer they take to close the gap the harder it becomes to motivate themselves.

[Premier ram]

7 minutes ago, Spanish said:

 a bit early but I have a few moments spare

Birmingham City15:00Stoke City

do Brum have the credentials to maintain their progress?

AFC Bournemouth15:00Coventry City

AFCB to continue their winning run

Huddersfield Town15:00Rotherham United

Udders will be pooing themselves over this game.  Rovrum need to bounce back also.  A draw the best hope

Queens Park Rangers15:00Sheffield Wednesday

wendy surprised me last week but they need to put together a run when they are 7/8 points from safety.  They need 2 wins and hope one of the rivals lose both theirs, the longer they take to close the gap the harder it becomes to motivate themselves.

Birmingham and Wednesday with wins, Huddersfield and Rotherham to draw , Coventry lose

[Leeds Ram]

15 hours ago, plymouthram said:

You are right I did get my Maths wrong, If that did work out we would be playing Sheff Weds on the last game of the season both sitting on the same points(who would have the better goal diff is not so easy to predict). Personally I don't think we will going into that May 8th fixture with the worry of having to win it, to stay in the championship.

Well if they caught up with us points wise they'd likely have the better goal difference as they need to get better results. I think it'll be a close run thing- I could see sheffield wednesday digging out enough points and our own form being bad enough for this happen but we'll just have to wait and see. 

[Ghost of Clough]

27 minutes ago, Spanish said:

Huddersfield Town15:00Rotherham United

I'm unsure how I fell about this game.

Draw = both teams edging closer to a safe number of points
Rotherham win = close the gap between us an them to just 5 points with 3 games in hand
Huddersfield win = Keeps Rotherham 8 points away from us with 9 games remaining, but gives Huddersfield a very good chance of staying up.

I think a Huddersfield win is the best outcome, with a Rotherham win the worst.

[Spanish]

2 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I'm unsure how I fell about this game.

Draw = both teams edging closer to a safe number of points
Rotherham win = close the gap between us an them to just 5 points with 3 games in hand
Huddersfield win = Keeps Rotherham 8 points away from us with 9 games remaining, but gives Huddersfield a very good chance of staying up.

I think a Huddersfield win is the best outcome, with a Rotherham win the worst.

yep I know pity both can't lose!

Always think that draw loses 1 point from the tie.  If we won or drew it would be  Udders to win, if we lose tend to think a draw is best 

 

[Ghost of Clough]

6 minutes ago, Leeds Ram said:

Well if they caught up with us points wise they'd likely have the better goal difference as they need to get better results. I think it'll be a close run thing- I could see sheffield wednesday digging out enough points and our own form being bad enough for this happen but we'll just have to wait and see. 

They would need to show top 2 form for their remaining 7 games. A tough ask for a side who have picked up points over 4 different runs this season.

1. 8 points in their opening 5 games
2. 7 points in a 6 game run
3. 19 points from 9 games from Dec to Feb
4. 7 points from their last 4 games

To stay up, they would need to continue their current run, giving 22 points from their final 11 games

[Leeds Ram]

8 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

They would need to show top 2 form for their remaining 7 games. A tough ask for a side who have picked up points over 4 different runs this season.

1. 8 points in their opening 5 games
2. 7 points in a 6 game run
3. 19 points from 9 games from Dec to Feb
4. 7 points from their last 4 games

To stay up, they would need to continue their current run, giving 22 points from their final 11 games

they're 8 points behind with 7 to play so if they win their game in hand that's 5 points behind with 6 to play. Assuming we pick up 5 before we play them that means they'll need to pick up 7 from 5 to give them a shot of overhauling us (a run of form they have just managed to pull off). All it's going to take is for them to produce a slight uptick and that final game could be the difference between going down and staying up if we don't improve our form over the last dozen games. 

Edited April 8, 2021 by Leeds Ram
mistakes made

[Robert Earnshaws Workrate]

Rotherham and Wednesday are down. I'll pop them a message later to let them know.

[Jimbo Ram]

10 minutes ago, Robert Earnshaws Workrate said:

Rotherham and Wednesday are down. I'll pop them a message later to let them know.

Unfortunately not the case ?

[Robert Earnshaws Workrate]

1 hour ago, Jimbo Ram said:

Unfortunately not the case ?

Case closed. 
Verdict: Rotherham and Wednesday are down.

[Jimbo Ram]

15 minutes ago, Robert Earnshaws Workrate said:

Case closed. 
Verdict: Rotherham and Wednesday are down.

Unfortunately not the case ?

[Foreveram]

14 hours ago, Robert Earnshaws Workrate said:

Case closed. 
Verdict: Rotherham and Wednesday are down.

Hope that’s not the mindset of our players 

 

 

[StantonRam]

Goal difference suddenly becomes of great importance.

Therefore against Norwich a 5 - 4 - 1 formation and either a point or a respectable losing scoreline (1-0 or 2-0) is a more sensible strategy than trying too hard for the win and getting stuffed and ending up with a -20 GD.

Wins against Brum and Sheff Wed plus one draw somewhere gets us well over the line at 50 points.

Therefore, tomorrow we need to be scrapping and hard to score against above anything else, and if we get a lucky break as we did at Carrow Road then so much the better.

[Robert Earnshaws Workrate]

2 hours ago, Foreveram said:

Hope that’s not the mindset of our players 

 

 

We'll be mathematically safe long before we play Brum or Wednesday.

Admittedly it'll be largely due to Rotherham dribbling away their games in hand for very little points. And Wednesday simply being too many points behind us with too few games left.

I'd even fancy Wycombe not to finish bottom of the league.

Edited April 9, 2021 by Robert Earnshaws Workrate

[Jimbo Ram]

5 minutes ago, Robert Earnshaws Workrate said:

We'll be mathematically safe long before we play Brum or Wednesday.

Admittedly it'll be largely due to Rotherham dribbling away their games in hand for very little points. And Wednesday simply being too many points behind us with too few games left.

I'd even fancy Wycombe not to finish bottom of the league.

Won’t be the case unfortunately...

[Rampage]

12 hours ago, LondonRam2 said:

Goal difference suddenly becomes of great importance.

Therefore against Norwich a 5 - 4 - 1 formation and either a point or a respectable losing scoreline (1-0 or 2-0) is a more sensible strategy than trying too hard for the win and getting stuffed and ending up with a -20 GD.

Wins against Brum and Sheff Wed plus one draw somewhere gets us well over the line at 50 points.

Therefore, tomorrow we need to be scrapping and hard to score against above anything else, and if we get a lucky break as we did at Carrow Road then so much the better.

Protecting goal difference is important.