Relegation watch

[richinspain]

Just now, Jimbo Ram said:

Come again?????

I think @Jimbo Ram was being deliberately obtuse (is that the word?). Unless you were too, of course?

[Jimbo Ram]

2 minutes ago, richinspain said:

I think @Jimbo Ram was being deliberately obtuse (is that the word?). Unless you were too, of course?

No, not at all. Go back and read some of Tiger's previous posts. Unless I am mistaking him for another poster, which I don't think I am, he is of the opinion there is nothing to worry about, we can rely on Rotherham not catching us so doesn't really matter how the other teams around us do.....we are not in any kind of trouble whatsoever.....

[ram59]

12 hours ago, plymouthram said:

Yes I spotted my mistake after I had hit the submit button, but once they have played the same amount of games it will be worse than ours.

For Rotherham to get level with us, they need to win 2 and draw 2 games in hands, this will improve their goal difference by a minimum of 2 goals, not lower it.

Likewise, for the Weds to get level with us, they need to win 3 games whilst we draw 1 and lose 1 game, again this would result in a minimum 4 goal swing in their favour.

The only teams that we're on par with atm, are Hudders, Cov and Blues.

[TigerTedd]

3 hours ago, Jimbo Ram said:

No, not at all. Go back and read some of Tiger's previous posts. Unless I am mistaking him for another poster, which I don't think I am, he is of the opinion there is nothing to worry about, we can rely on Rotherham not catching us so doesn't really matter how the other teams around us do.....we are not in any kind of trouble whatsoever.....

My point is, and always has been, that we are in a relegation scrap with about 6 other teams. So when 5 of those teams lose, and just one wins, I’m not going to get my knickers in a twist. 

for some reason, many in this thread think that we’re only in a relegation scrap with Brum. When they win a match, we’re doomed. But there are plenty of other things that have to happen before Brum even become a factor in our survival. 

plan a: we win our games and don’t even need to think about anyone else’s results.

plan b: Rotherham don’t pick up enough points to catch us.

plan ? Coventry don’t pick up enough points to catch us.

plan d: Birmingham don’t pick up enough points to catch us. 

plan e: Huddersfield don’t pick up enough points to catch us.

only if all those plans fail, do we get relegated. We can’t expect all the results to go in our favour every week. But if the majority do, I call that a good week. And if I had to choose 2 or 3 of those results to go in our favour, I’d choose from the top of the list. Brum winning the off match is not a problem, as long as everything else goes in our favour. 

And to go back to the very original point of all this, if Brum win, and open up a big gap between 21st place and Rotherham, and cutting them adrift, sapping their confidence, it’s not a bad thing. It’s a win / win. Brum loose, they’re less likely to catch us. They win, Rotherham are less likely to catch us, which is actually priority 1 here. If Rotherham stay where they are, it doesn’t matter if Brum catch up with us. 

[Leeds Ram]

1 hour ago, TigerTedd said:

My point is, and always has been, that we are in a relegation scrap with about 6 other teams. So when 5 of those teams lose, and just one wins, I’m not going to get my knickers in a twist. 

for some reason, many in this thread think that we’re only in a relegation scrap with Brum. When they win a match, we’re doomed. But there are plenty of other things that have to happen before Brum even become a factor in our survival. 

plan a: we win our games and don’t even need to think about anyone else’s results.

plan b: Rotherham don’t pick up enough points to catch us.

plan ? Coventry don’t pick up enough points to catch us.

plan d: Birmingham don’t pick up enough points to catch us. 

plan e: Huddersfield don’t pick up enough points to catch us.

only if all those plans fail, do we get relegated. We can’t expect all the results to go in our favour every week. But if the majority do, I call that a good week. And if I had to choose 2 or 3 of those results to go in our favour, I’d choose from the top of the list. Brum winning the off match is not a problem, as long as everything else goes in our favour. 

And to go back to the very original point of all this, if Brum win, and open up a big gap between 21st place and Rotherham, and cutting them adrift, sapping their confidence, it’s not a bad thing. It’s a win / win. Brum loose, they’re less likely to catch us. They win, Rotherham are less likely to catch us, which is actually priority 1 here. If Rotherham stay where they are, it doesn’t matter if Brum catch up with us. 

plan C,D, and E are all very very tight- Huddersfield on the same amount of points and have a game in hand, Birmingham one point behind and Cov one point behind with a game in hand too. So it's not like we're clear of them, in fact by the time we play norwich I expect we'll be in a worse position and definitely be below Huddersfield and maybe Birmingham. 

Realistically plan A and B are what we should be focusing on more and we need to keep an eye on sheffield wednesday (8 points behind but a game in hand and some very winnable fixtures coming up). We need to be looking at Preston and Blackburn to get 4 points from so we go into the last 3 games with sufficient breathing room to be comfortable. If we get 1 point from those 2 games we'll be staring relegation in the face at that point. 

[superfit]

I would forget the other teams and take it that Wycombe will be relegated despite their last couple of results. It’s between us, Sheffield Wednesday and Rotherham to fill the two remaining spaces. 
 

We need 7 points from the remaining games leaving Rotherham needing to win 5 draw 1 and lose 4 to overtake us ( goal difference is too difficult to gage at the moment). That would be a tall order considering they are going to get 2 or 3 days rest between games until the end of the season. 

Sheffield Wednesday need to win 5 draw 1 lose 1. That’s automatic promotion form. Plus we have them at the end of the season. 

If we can’t get 7 points and the other two teams manage to hit the form needed then we definitely deserve to be relegated. 

[Olton Ram]

11 minutes ago, superfit said:

I would forget the other teams and take it that Wycombe will be relegated despite their last couple of results. It’s between us, Sheffield Wednesday and Rotherham to fill the two remaining spaces. 
 

Why is it? At the moment Huddersfield, Coventry and Birmingham are all below us. Why aren't they in the relegation mix? I'm by no means saying that we're safe, but I can't see why teams that are actually below us are deemed to be not part of the discussion of who might be going down to League One. ?‍♂️

[superfit]

39 minutes ago, Olton Ram said:

Why is it? At the moment Huddersfield, Coventry and Birmingham are all below us. Why aren't they in the relegation mix? I'm by no means saying that we're safe, but I can't see why teams that are actually below us are deemed to be not part of the discussion of who might be going down to League One. ?‍♂️

Fair point.
 

My post was based on probability. If we get 7 points from our remaining games which teams have the least chance of catching us and in that sense it’s Sheffield Wednesday and Rotherham. 

Therefore get 7 points and we should be safe because that’s going to mean Sheffield Wednesday putting together automatic promotion form and  Rotherham putting the sort of run together that’s defied them all season whilst playing around 3 games a week. 

So my logic is that win this 3 horse race and we’re safe, well until the EFL come along at the end of the season rendering this whole thread pointless. 
 

[plymouthram]

5 hours ago, ram59 said:

For Rotherham to get level with us, they need to win 2 and draw 2 games in hands, this will improve their goal difference by a minimum of 2 goals, not lower it.

Likewise, for the Weds to get level with us, they need to win 3 games whilst we draw 1 and lose 1 game, again this would result in a minimum 4 goal swing in their favour.

The only teams that we're on par with atm, are Hudders, Cov and Blues.

So Rotherham who have won 2 and lost 8 in their last 10 matches are suddenly going to hit some form. They have managed to lose 21 games in only 36 matches, only Wycombe have lost more, that being 23 and they've done that over 40 games. Rotherham, with one of the smallest squads in the Championship have 10 matches to play in 28 days (Thats going to take it's toll). Likewise Sheff Weds have lost 7 drawn 1 and won just 2 in their last 10 games (they also would need to find some form). How you come to the conculsion that Hudderfield, Coventry and Birmingham are on par with us. All three have worse goal differences and two have a point less.

Compare our last 10 matches, we have lost 5, drawn 3 and won 2 (thats more points gained than Rotherham & Weds in the last 10 games). Currently, its points in the bag, having a better goal diff and less than a month the season is over.  If Rotherham perform the miracle and win 2, draw 2 of their games in hand, then also better Derby in their other games. Please come back on here and remind me and state you told me so. I'm sticking with Wycombe, Rotherham and Sheff Weds to be relegated.

[Jimbo Ram]

5 hours ago, TigerTedd said:

My point is, and always has been, that we are in a relegation scrap with about 6 other teams. So when 5 of those teams lose, and just one wins, I’m not going to get my knickers in a twist. 

for some reason, many in this thread think that we’re only in a relegation scrap with Brum. When they win a match, we’re doomed. But there are plenty of other things that have to happen before Brum even become a factor in our survival. 

plan a: we win our games and don’t even need to think about anyone else’s results.

plan b: Rotherham don’t pick up enough points to catch us.

plan ? Coventry don’t pick up enough points to catch us.

plan d: Birmingham don’t pick up enough points to catch us. 

plan e: Huddersfield don’t pick up enough points to catch us.

only if all those plans fail, do we get relegated. We can’t expect all the results to go in our favour every week. But if the majority do, I call that a good week. And if I had to choose 2 or 3 of those results to go in our favour, I’d choose from the top of the list. Brum winning the off match is not a problem, as long as everything else goes in our favour. 

And to go back to the very original point of all this, if Brum win, and open up a big gap between 21st place and Rotherham, and cutting them adrift, sapping their confidence, it’s not a bad thing. It’s a win / win. Brum loose, they’re less likely to catch us. They win, Rotherham are less likely to catch us, which is actually priority 1 here. If Rotherham stay where they are, it doesn’t matter if Brum catch up with us. 

No, this idea that Brum winning against Swansea is a good thing, this win win nonsense....is totally flawed claptrap. We wanted Swansea to beat Brum, one of our major relegation rivals. End of ?

[TigerTedd]

7 minutes ago, Jimbo Ram said:

No, this idea that Brum winning against Swansea is a good thing, this win win nonsense....is totally flawed claptrap. We wanted Swansea to beat Brum, one of our major relegation rivals. End of ?

[ram59]

20 minutes ago, plymouthram said:

So Rotherham who have won 2 and lost 8 in their last 10 matches are suddenly going to hit some form. They have managed to lose 21 games in only 36 matches, only Wycombe have lost more, that being 23 and they've done that over 40 games. Rotherham, with one of the smallest squads in the Championship have 10 matches to play in 28 days (Thats going to take it's toll). Likewise Sheff Weds have lost 7 drawn 1 and won just 2 in their last 10 games (they also would need to find some form). How you come to the conculsion that Hudderfield, Coventry and Birmingham are on par with us. All three have worse goal differences and two have a point less.

Compare our last 10 matches, we have lost 5, drawn 3 and won 2 (thats more points gained than Rotherham & Weds in the last 10 games). Currently, its points in the bag, having a better goal diff and less than a month the season is over.  If Rotherham perform the miracle and win 2, draw 2 of their games in hand, then also better Derby in their other games. Please come back on here and remind me and state you told me so. I'm sticking with Wycombe, Rotherham and Sheff Weds to be relegated.

You need to read what I have written, I haven't said that either of those teams are going to go on a run.  What I did say, is that for them to get level with us on points, will automatically mean their GD will have to improve when compared with ours. Should it come down to GD between us and either of Rotherham or Weds, we will be most likely worse off, unless one of them gets thrashed in a defeat.

On balance we're very close to Cov's GD and a little ahead of Hudders and Blues, hopefully that'll remain the situation after the weekend.

If you average the season out, then relegation should be all sorted, but unfortunately, anything can happen over the remaining few games.

[Leeds Ram]

29 minutes ago, plymouthram said:

So Rotherham who have won 2 and lost 8 in their last 10 matches are suddenly going to hit some form. They have managed to lose 21 games in only 36 matches, only Wycombe have lost more, that being 23 and they've done that over 40 games. Rotherham, with one of the smallest squads in the Championship have 10 matches to play in 28 days (Thats going to take it's toll). Likewise Sheff Weds have lost 7 drawn 1 and won just 2 in their last 10 games (they also would need to find some form). How you come to the conculsion that Hudderfield, Coventry and Birmingham are on par with us. All three have worse goal differences and two have a point less.

Compare our last 10 matches, we have lost 5, drawn 3 and won 2 (thats more points gained than Rotherham & Weds in the last 10 games). Currently, its points in the bag, having a better goal diff and less than a month the season is over.  If Rotherham perform the miracle and win 2, draw 2 of their games in hand, then also better Derby in their other games. Please come back on here and remind me and state you told me so. I'm sticking with Wycombe, Rotherham and Sheff Weds to be relegated.

When Huddersfield have the same points as us and a game in hand, Birmingham a point behind and coventry a point behind with a game to play it's too close to call. On saturday we could easily fall behind all 3 given our fixture against Norwich. 

Any reason why you're drawing your sample from the last 10 and not the last 5 games say? Where sheffield Wednesday have gotten 7 points, Rotherham 6 and we've amassed 4 which looks much less favourable for us. The truth is we won't be able to judge where we truly sit until Rotherham, Sheffield Wednesday, Coventry and Huddersfield have played their games in hand. My gut feeling is we'll be 20th once things are level, 4 points above Rotherham and 3 above sheffield wednesday.

I'm not saying we'll definitely go down and we have a good chance of staying up but a lot of people are seeing that 8 point difference and not the games in hands of those teams around us. They won't all lose and pick up 0 points and Rotherham will pick up at least a few points from those 4 games realistically. Personally, I fear Sheffield Wednesday more than Rotherham. They have a very winnable set of games coming up, are hitting a bit of form just now plus their gd is the same as ours but they've scored more goals. 

 

 

[BodminRam]

21 hours ago, uttoxram75 said:

Part timer !!!!

this is just the sort of game we’ll win, it’s the Derby way ???

Theirs about as much chance off us winning this as you sharing a biscuit . LOL

[Jimbo Ram]

50 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

Reminds me of when my son was 3 and trying to explain that 2 plus 2 = 4 but he insisted it was 5 ?

[TigerTedd]

34 minutes ago, Jimbo Ram said:

Reminds me of when my son was 3 and trying to explain that 2 plus 2 = 4 but he insisted it was 5 ?

smart boy your son. 

I rest my case. 

[Jimbo Ram]

1 minute ago, TigerTedd said:

smart boy your son. 

I rest my case. 

He is.....just like his father ?

[Sparkle]

Normally 50 points gets you safety in the championship but because of point deductions it’s probably about 48 points 

[plymouthram]

18 minutes ago, Leeds Ram said:

When Huddersfield have the same points as us and a game in hand, Birmingham a point behind and coventry a point behind with a game to play it's too close to call. On saturday we could easily fall behind all 3 given our fixture against Norwich. 

Any reason why you're drawing your sample from the last 10 and not the last 5 games say? Where sheffield Wednesday have gotten 7 points, Rotherham 6 and we've amassed 4 which looks much less favourable for us. The truth is we won't be able to judge where we truly sit until Rotherham, Sheffield Wednesday, Coventry and Huddersfield have played their games in hand. My gut feeling is we'll be 20th once things are level, 4 points above Rotherham and 3 above sheffield wednesday.

I'm not saying we'll definitely go down and we have a good chance of staying up but a lot of people are seeing that 8 point difference and not the games in hands of those teams around us. They won't all lose and pick up 0 points and Rotherham will pick up at least a few points from those 4 games realistically. Personally, I fear Sheffield Wednesday more than Rotherham. They have a very winnable set of games coming up, are hitting a bit of form just now plus their gd is the same as ours but they've scored more goals. 

 

 

Saturday fixture is Huddersfield v Rotherham (they both can't win, but both could drop points). Coventry are away to Bournemouth(not easy). Birmingham at home to Stoke (looks easy, but not a given). Sheff Wed have QPR away (hard on to call). Derby home to Norwich.

I don't get that Sheff Wed are hitting some form, their last 10 games reads 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats. Over their last 5 matches they won 2, drew 1 and lost 2, thats slightly better than the Rams last 5 by 3 points but they are still 8 points behind us even though they have one game in hand. In the bottom 7 only Derby and Wycombe have one mid week game to play, so thats in their favour for recovery from one game to the next. Other interesting fixtures where teams in the bottom 7 play each other and this means one or both could drop points; Coventry v Rotherham 15th April, Rotherham v Birmingham 18th April, Derby v Birmingham 24th April, Huddersfield v Coventry 1st May and last game of season Derby v Sheff Wed.

Lets say Sheff Wed win their game in hand (which is on Tues 13th at home to Swansea). That will put them 5 points behind us assuming we lose to Norwich and they beat QPR this Saturday. They would then have to get 2 points or more than the Rams in the next 4 matches. Wednesday's being Bristol, Blackburn, M'boro and Forest. Derby's 4, being Blackburn, Preston, Birmingham and Swansea. If they gained just 2 points more than us, then they would have to win at Pride Park to go above us on goal difference. I'm not going predict who has the easy or hard fixtures left to play(because this is the championship). What I will state is: Points in the bag is better than games in hand and I know goal difference can change but currently only Rotherham's is better than ours in the current bottom 7 teams.

[plymouthram]

1 hour ago, BodminRam said:

Theirs about as much chance off us winning this as you sharing a biscuit . LOL

Hobnob anyone ?