The coronabrexit thread. I mean, coronavirus thread

[Stagtime]

3 minutes ago, Albert said:

Got to be honest, Scomo having a "4 stage plan" never really fills me with confidence, as it always seems like him trying to market himself, but it, and the research that backed it, at least illuminate what that long term strategy is. 

Here’s hoping stage 4 is Scomo packing his sharks scarf in his suitcase as he’s kicked out of the lodge. I have no confidence in anything he says.

[i-Ram]

2 hours ago, Albert said:

The official advice, now accepted by the Federal government, is that elimination remains the only strategy for Australia. NSW can eliminate it, but it's going to take them actually putting in proper restrictions, than than this patchwork stuff that keep going for. Sadly, they buggered up the response, but everyone saw this coming when it started. Gladys wanted to play politics with a virus and lost. 

I've honestly not seen any Australians complaining about exercising. Official policy in every state, to my knowledge, has been that exercise is fine. There are rules about it, eg only people from your household, etc, but it is encouraged. You've probably just come across a nutjob. 

The federal government have been pathetic from start to finish. The good stuff has been done by the states, Morrison and his rabble have achieved little, but made a lot of mistakes on the way to that during this past year and a half. 

It's like how Trump was giddy with excitement when New Zealand had an outbreak of a dozen or so people last year, because he got sick of hearing about how well they did, and basically wanted to celebrate their 'disaster in the making'. The reality is, Australia's method worked for protecting lives and livelihoods, and continues to do so. The states really saved us, as the Federal government really wanted to go down the UK's route, but the states kind of battled for who could be the strongest on it. 

The federal government, as I've discussed on here since mid last year, has been an utter shambles through this whole process though. Literally everything they've touched in regard to it has been a mess. Hotel quarantine, letting in the rich and powerful while leaving Australians stranded, supporting Palmer trying to force WA's borders open, not procuring vaccines, etc. 

The most egregious of all, however, has been their rhetoric around vaccines in general. Due to initial issues around supply, they wanted to blame 'hesitancy', despite there being no vaccines available, so they pushed the line that 'because of the advice from overseas, no-one wants AstraZeneca'. This was then further pushes by their Murdoch mates, which actually has generated a movement of people only wanting Pfizer. This was particularly stupid of them, because AstraZeneca is now in massive oversupply, but only about 15% of people are fully vaccinated, and they've basically bottlenecked us on Pfizer, which is entirely due to them turning Pfizer down last year. 

The majority of the country has been opened up for the majority of the pandemic. NSW at the moment looks in deep trouble, but as discussed on here a few weeks back, that's all thanks to the LNP bending over backwards for Murdoch 'n mates and their political hardon against lockdowns. 

Last year, we did so well in keeping our response largely apolitical, but sadly NSW ultimately succumb to the temptation to sling mud at other states to try and win a byelection, and so have been way too lax in their response since. They had the slowest burning of the recent outbreaks, but through lockdown hesitancy allowed it to get out of control. Thankfully, while the same side of politics, South Australia's government is actually competent, and despite a worse initial outbreak, managed to get control of that situation with a 7 day lockdown, and it now looks like it may well be in the clear. Still harsher restrictions on capacity, masks, etc, for the time being, but way better than the months of lockdown NSW now faces for Gladys' mistakes. 

As to percentage of population, the population of Australia is 25.36 million, compared to the UK's 66.65. Times Australia's numbers by 2.5, and you'll get a rough equivalent to what it would be like in a UK sized population. 

I probably could get behind all of this if I didn’t have the sneaking suspicion that a member of the Australian Military was holding a gun to your temple whilst you typed this.

[Stagtime]

2 minutes ago, i-Ram said:

I probably could get behind all of this if I didn’t have the sneaking suspicion that a member of the Australian Military was holding a gun to your temple whilst you typed this.

Haha, I’ll back up Albert on this one mate.

[Albert]

40 minutes ago, Stagtime said:

Here’s hoping stage 4 is Scomo packing his sharks scarf in his suitcase as he’s kicked out of the lodge. I have no confidence in anything he says.

I wouldn't hold out much hope. As long as Murdoch wants him in the lodge, he'll be there. Their more recent strategy of just pretending the opposition leader is quiet and doing nothing has worked well for a few cycles. It's actually a brilliant strategy to be fair. Paint the opposition as quiet and timid for the majority of the time, then suddenly shine a light on any policies that look scary in the immediate leadup to the election. Worked like a charm last time, and now Labor are basically putting up the blandest looking election platform they've done since the Beasley days. Covid has also had a huge protective effect on incumbent governments too, and while public confidence isn't high in the Federal government's handling, as long as NSW gets out of this current crisis before election day, it'll likely still help them. 

This all said, if polls continue to tumble for them, Scomo is likely to make way for someone more marketable before the end of this year so they can gear up for that election. I'm really not sure who they'd trot out though. Dutton's Voldemort reputation is well and truly set in stone now, while Porter's reputation is all but gone. Frydenberg is possible, but likely seen as too boring. None of them have a sick "I stopped these trophy" to put on their desk either. 

40 minutes ago, i-Ram said:

I probably could get behind all of this if I didn’t have the sneaking suspicion that a member of the Australian Military was holding a gun to your temple whilst you typed this.

To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if the military had lost confidence in Scomo to such an extent they were getting people, at gunpoint, to criticise him online. 

[Leeds Ram]

23 hours ago, maxjam said:

Thats what forums are for!

 

Although as we've seen the jab doesn't prevent vaccinated people from catching or passing on the virus.  It maybe at a lower level but lets assume that we reach 90% vaccination, do 90% of mildly infectious people potentially cause more or less danger that 10% highly infectious people - especially given that in both instances you are far more likely to be surrounded by vaccinated people?

 

Not a vaccine, but Thalidomide could be considered an equivalent.

Furthermore if these new vaccines were using traditional methods you would probably have far less hesitency.  A lot of people that have refused the jabs aren't antivaxers, they are just in an age group that currently have little to fear from covid and would like to play the odds and wait for the long term data to come in.  My lad for example isn't averse to having the jab when he's 30 - he's 18 atm and unless barred from having a university education or social life is happy to take his chances and wait a number of years to ensure he won't be putting himself at any greater risk by having the jab.

 

I'll see if I can dig it out, but I also read that because the vaccines don't provide sterilizing immunity, just suppress its effects, the vaccines are also putting the virus under increased pressure to mutate.  Whilst it is possible the vaccines will drive the virus to extinction, it is not impossible that they might also drive mutations. 

It is also funny that you highlight the US (political basketcase),  Chris Whitty stated that 40% of UK deaths are amongst the double vaccinated population - which is more believable tbh as the jabs aren't 100% effective and those older/more vulnerable end of the elder and vulnerable spectrum are unfortunately all probably one illness away from death.

Indeed it is! ? I don't get the argument you're using in the first paragraph. 100% of mildly or less infectious people is less dangerous than 90% mildly infectious and 10% highly infectious. So by not being vaccinated you're still posing a greater threat of passing it on. 

I mean I've not seen the data on the anti vaxxers for this compared to others. Anecdotally, I have been given leaflets by corona antivaxxers that use the same arguments as antivaxxers in general. The anti vaxxer protests also have a similar vibe that anecdotally make me question the distinction tbh. 

Chris witty i don't think said 40% of the deaths are amongst the double vaccinated population. He said 40% of hospitalisations and the hospitalisations are in general much less severe, needing a bit of oxygen for instance as opposed to being on icu. 

Edited July 31, 2021 by Leeds Ram

[maxjam]

50 minutes ago, Leeds Ram said:

Indeed it is! ? I don't get the argument you're using in the first paragraph. 100% of mildly or less infectious people is less dangerous than 90% mildly infectious and 10% highly infectious. So by not being vaccinated you're still posing a greater threat of passing it on. 

I guess the point I was making was that we originally only needed to vaccinate the elderly and vulnerable to get our freedom back.  Then the over 50s.  Now its everyone.  IIRC herd immunity was reached a while back, if I was mistaken and it hasn't been, we're on track to vaccinate 90% of all adults anyway - so theres my 90%/10% argument.  

Unless you physically restrain people and jab them against their will, 90% is probably about the best we'll do and far better than the Govt imagined at the beginning.  Personally, I think 90% is a great achievement and well beyond herd immunity. 

IMHO vaccinating the final 10% won't effect the overall R number to any significant degree given that its well beyond the number needed for herd immunity, they are a small percentage of the community and 9 in 10 people they meet will be vaccinated anyway. 

 

50 minutes ago, Leeds Ram said:

I mean I've not seen the data on the anti vaxxers for this compared to others. Anecdotally, I have been given leaflets by corona antivaxxers that use the same arguments as antivaxxers in general. The anti vaxxer protests also have a similar vibe that anecdotally make me question the distinction tbh. 

One of the problems with the current language being used by people in Govt or millions of followers on twitter is that they regularly conflate anti-vaxxers with the vaccine hesitant.  Vaccine uptake drops off a little as you go down the age brackets but most significantly in the under 30s - the ones that are likely to suffer least with covid and have the most to lose if any long term complicantions should arise.  

Its a bit like the old Brexit argument - all the far right are Brexiteers but not all Brexiteers are far right.

 

50 minutes ago, Leeds Ram said:

Chris witty i don't think said 40% of the deaths are amongst the double vaccinated population. He said 40% of hospitalisations and the hospitalisations are in general much less severe, needing a bit of oxygen for instance as opposed to being on icu. 

TBH I can't recall what Chris Whitty said exactly, and couldn't find it following a quick google search.  I did find this however;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57610998

'Of the 117 people who died with the Delta variant, first identified in India, 50 (43%) had been fully vaccinated.'

As I've covered earlier in the thread I'm not wanting to spread conspiracy theories, there is a very good reason for this - most of the population have now been jabbed, including the elderly and vulnerable, therefore most of the deaths eventually be in this group.  I guess eventually your time will be up and the next thing you get will knock you over.  As it says further down the article;

'No vaccine is perfect in preventing people from getting Covid and therefore a small number of people will still die.  And in a world where every single person had been vaccinated, 100% of Covid deaths would be of vaccinated people.  But the actual number of people dying would be much lower - a 20th as many as if no-one was vaccinated, according to PHE estimates.'

I'm not denying that the vaccine works, nor that it keeps people out of hospital or requiring less intervention if they do, but I do believe that we have either reached or are very close to reaching herd immunity with approx 90% of the adult population double jabbed by Sept.  Calling everyone else stupid or selfish and trying to coercing them to take the jab by denying them their freedom is a a slippery slope towards increased Govt interference in our lives. 

Others may or may not agree with that, but personally I'd like to stop any chance of that happening now rather than have to potentially look back in 5 years time at what we've lost and fight to get it back.  I'm still hopeful it won't make its way through Parliament, especially with approx 50 Tory rebels but Labour do seem to be wobbling ? 

Edited July 31, 2021 by maxjam

[GboroRam]

12 minutes ago, maxjam said:

I guess the point I was making was that we originally only needed to vaccinate the elderly and vulnerable to get our freedom back.  Then the over 50s.  Now its everyone.  IIRC herd immunity was reached a while back, if I was mistaken and it hasn't been, we're on track to vaccinate 90% of all adults anyway - so theres my 90%/10% argument.  

Unless you physically restrain people and jab them against their will, 90% is probably about the best we'll do and far better than the Govt imagined at the beginning.  Personally, I think 90% is a great achievement and well beyond herd immunity. 

IMHO vaccinating the final 10% won't effect the overall R number to any significant degree given that its well beyond the number needed for herd immunity, they are a small percentage of the community and 9 in 10 people they meet will be vaccinated anyway. 

 

One of the problems with the current language being used by people in Govt or millions of followers on twitter is that they regularly conflate anti-vaxxers with the vaccine hesitant.  Vaccine uptake drops off a little as you go down the age brackets but most significantly in the under 30s - the ones that are likely to suffer least with covid and have the most to lose if any long term complicantions should arise.  

Its a bit like the old Brexit argument - all the far right are Brexiteers but not all Brexiteers are far right.

 

TBH I can't recall what Chris Whitty said exactly, and couldn't find it following a quick google search.  I did find this however;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57610998

'Of the 117 people who died with the Delta variant, first identified in India, 50 (43%) had been fully vaccinated.'

As I've covered earlier in the thread I'm not wanting to spread conspiracy theories, there is a very good reason for this - most of the population have now been jabbed, including the elderly and vulnerable, therefore most of the deaths eventually be in this group.  I guess eventually your time will be up and the next thing you get will knock you over.  As it says further down the article;

'No vaccine is perfect in preventing people from getting Covid and therefore a small number of people will still die.  And in a world where every single person had been vaccinated, 100% of Covid deaths would be of vaccinated people.  But the actual number of people dying would be much lower - a 20th as many as if no-one was vaccinated, according to PHE estimates.'

I'm not denying that the vaccine works, nor that it keeps people out of hospital or requiring less intervention if they do, but I do believe that we have either reached or are very close to reaching herd immunity with approx 90% of the adult population double jabbed by Sept.  Calling everyone else stupid or selfish and trying to coercing them to take the jab by denying them their freedom is a a slippery slope towards increased Govt interference in our lives. 

Others may or may not agree with that, but personally I'd like to stop any chance of that happening now rather than have to potentially look back in 5 years time at what we've lost and fight to get it back.  I'm still hopeful it won't make its way through Parliament, especially with approx 50 Tory rebels but Labour do seem to be wobbling ? 

I don't think we're anywhere near herd immunity. With latest data showing the delta variant being on a par with chickenpox for transmittability, herd immunity will be very hard to achieve. 

[maxjam]

3 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

I don't think we're anywhere near herd immunity. With latest data showing the delta variant being on a par with chickenpox for transmittability, herd immunity will be very hard to achieve. 

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-why-hasnt-herd-immunity-stopped-covid

[GboroRam]

20 minutes ago, maxjam said:

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-why-hasnt-herd-immunity-stopped-covid

Exactly. R rating of an estimated 1.4 as the delta variant is spreading so easily. Herd immunity is when it's below 1.

[maxjam]

1 minute ago, GboroRam said:

Exactly. R rating of an estimated 1.4 as the delta variant is spreading so easily. Herd immunity is when it's below 1.

To be fair, at the start of the pandemic we were told we needed approx 60-70% vaccine uptake to reach herd immunity.  I have since read elsewhere that other 'experts' have said it may need to be as much as 80-90%, and in one article, 98% uptake!?!

A key point however is that the covid vaccines don't provide sterlising immunity - you can still catch it and pass it on, therefore herd immunity will never be reached.  Furthermore, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that mass vaccination during a pandemic may put additional pressure on the virus to mutate, in which case blaming future variants on the unvaccinated will unnecessarily demonize them further

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210203-why-vaccinated-people-may-still-be-able-to-spread-covid-19

[Wolfie]

20 hours ago, Pearl Ram said:

He who denied it supplied it. 

He who said the rhyme did the crime

[Andrew3000]

https://trialsitenews.com/bioethics-of-experimental-covid-vaccine-deployment-under-eua-its-time-we-stop-and-look-at-whats-going-down/

 

[rammieib]

On 30/07/2021 at 07:11, Stagtime said:

The biggest issue here is different levels of government in charge of different things. Unfortunately the federal government is in charge of vaccinations and have totally ducked it up. People want the vaccinations but our main orders aren’t  due into the country till September. 

Maybe we have been lucky but to date the only difference I’ve had since COVID started is 6 days of pubs being shut, didn’t lose 1 day of work. As for tourism in Qld, try getting accommodation, if you didn’t book anything 3 months in advance you have next to no chance of finding anything. Financially, our GDP actually grew last financial year. The talk is stage 2 kicking in early next year which will be when everyone has been given the opportunity of having the jab. Hopefully then we will be able to travel internationally. Tickets provisionally booked for Easter.

Travel in and travel out for non Aussies?

[GboroRam]

29 minutes ago, Andrew3000 said:

https://trialsitenews.com/bioethics-of-experimental-covid-vaccine-deployment-under-eua-its-time-we-stop-and-look-at-whats-going-down/

 

I looked him up on Wikipedia. Nice start for his entry. 

Robert Wallace Malone is an American virologist and immunologist criticized for propagating misinformation during the COVID-19 pandemic.

[maxjam]

11 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

I looked him up on Wikipedia. Nice start for his entry. 

Robert Wallace Malone is an American virologist and immunologist criticized for propagating misinformation during the COVID-19 pandemic.

It says a similar thing on Bret Weinsteins wiki page - fwiw they (him and his wife) made a video proving what they were being accused of was false.

The guy that created the Wikipedia also hates what it has become;

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/wikipedia-founder-larry-sanger-democrats-b1885138.html

[Gone]

Here you are @Eddie I thought I’d cheer you up on a Saturday……however that 5% grrrrrrrr ? ? 

 

[Andrew3000]

1 hour ago, GboroRam said:

I looked him up on Wikipedia. Nice start for his entry. 

Robert Wallace Malone is an American virologist and immunologist criticized for propagating misinformation during the COVID-19 pandemic.

What else would it say?! Again, I'm not saying I 100% trust the source but his credentials as a scientist seem pretty good. Alarming how every dissenting voice is instantly discredited and how powerful the effect is on us.

[Eddie]

1 hour ago, TexasRam said:

Here you are @Eddie I thought I’d cheer you up on a Saturday……however that 5% grrrrrrrr ? ? 

 

I went shopping today - and there were more wearing a mask in Long Eaton Tesco than last week in St Austell.

Strangely enough, the vast majority who weren't wearing masks were young to middle-aged people who were, let's say, in possession of their own Jupiter-like gravitational field.

[GboroRam]

1 hour ago, Eddie said:

I went shopping today - and there were more wearing a mask in Long Eaton Tesco than last week in St Austell.

Strangely enough, the vast majority who weren't wearing masks were young to middle-aged people who were, let's say, in possession of their own Jupiter-like gravitational field.

Prior to freedom day, I noticed that these medical reasons that exempt people from wearing a mask seem to be genetic, as whole households would walk around asda without one. It even seemed to be transmittable between husband and wife. 

[Archied]

6 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

Prior to freedom day, I noticed that these medical reasons that exempt people from wearing a mask seem to be genetic, as whole households would walk around asda without one. It even seemed to be transmittable between husband and wife. 

Yeah , common sense is contagious, I’m watching the complete idiocy of people walking around outside in lovely weather wearing a mask ???