The coronabrexit thread. I mean, coronavirus thread

[ariotofmyown]

5 minutes ago, therealhantsram said:

Quite. Looking at the data from the Netherlands is really scary. They did pretty much as we are doing now, about 4 weeks ago. At the time they had 50% of population fully vaccinated.

At the moment we have about 65% fully vaccinated.

We are sitting in the middle of an experiment right now. Will we go the way of the Netherlands. Will our vaccination rate save us from the worst that they experienced?

Unfortunately, they only had about 600 new cases per day at the time, which has grown to about 10k per day in 3 weeks. Their PM has apologised for the removal of restrictions and they've put them back.

I hope we don't see a tenfold increase in new cases by early August.

 

[Stive Pesley]

1 hour ago, ariotofmyown said:

I hope we don't see a tenfold increase in new cases by early August.

We almost certainly will - because it's an highly infectious disease with an exponential growth rate.

I suppose this is the moment where things get proven one way of another

If we have a tenfold increase but serious illness and death remains low, then how can we justify more lockdowns?

But the second the modelling on that shows the NHS being threatened again, how can we NOT?

 

 

[therealhantsram]

1 hour ago, ariotofmyown said:

Unfortunately, they only had about 600 new cases per day at the time, which has grown to about 10k per day in 3 weeks. Their PM has apologised for the removal of restrictions and they've put them back.

I hope we don't see a tenfold increase in new cases by early August.

 

I think the one thing the government are banking on for the next 6 weeks is that schools are closed. And so they hope the super spreader bars and clubs will be offset by no spreading in schools.

We will have to wait and see what happens.

[Tamworthram]

On 17/07/2021 at 20:33, TexasRam said:

Bet you’re fun at parties ????

There's another one this Thursday about the effects of long Covid. I might dial in just for laughs. 

[Archied]

3 hours ago, DarkFruitsRam7 said:

Might not fit in well here because of all the (understandable) talk of rising infections and hospitalisations.

But I'm going to a nightclub on Thursday and I can't bloody wait.

Go and have a good time boy ,,, and that’s comming from a 60 year old tee totaler ????

[Archied]

3 hours ago, Stive Pesley said:

I'm currently now the only person in the house not isolating due to a covid contact.

The school bubble is closed because a kid in his class had it. Mild symptoms (that any other time you would pass off as a "bit of a cold") lasted 24 hours. Child was already fine before the PCR test result came through

Missus got pinged because she'd been sat in a friend's garden last week, at least 2m apart and said friend (double jabbed) has now tested positive. Again - her symptoms are so mild she nearly didn't bother getting tested, but her husband works in frontline NHS so they did it to be on the safe side

It's getting a bit silly isn't it

Surely if your in the house with those people you will have to isolate too, we did when wife was positive??‍♂️
good also to see more and more people starting to tire of the constant nonsense 

[Archied]

3 hours ago, ariotofmyown said:

That's ok, because we'll only be hitting...erm...100k cases per day soon.

You talking covid or airport baggage handlers?

[Archied]

2 hours ago, therealhantsram said:

That's too simplistic.

There is also the issue of long Covid. There have not been any proper studies yet on the long term impact of this on young people in particular.

There is a compassionate argument to take it easy for their benefit. There is also an economic argument. How many people will not be able to return to work? How many people will require state benefits for the rest of their life. We just don't know at this point.

Your right ,, I see a yuppie flu developing 

[Archied]

31 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

We almost certainly will - because it's an highly infectious disease with an exponential growth rate.

I suppose this is the moment where things get proven one way of another

If we have a tenfold increase but serious illness and death remains low, then how can we justify more lockdowns?

But the second the modelling on that shows the NHS being threatened again, how can we NOT?

 

 

Well sorting out the ludicrous isolation regulations and getting full staff 100% of the time will go a long way to stopping hospitals being overwhelmed and if double jabbed don’t need isolating from positive people the bed spacing / numbers will help too??‍♂️

[maxjam]

If this is true...

and "Proof of a negative test will no longer be sufficient."

Then why this?

 

It will create a 2 tier society and/or essentially force everyone, especially young people that are at minimal risk from covid into having a vaccine that may or may not have repercussions years from now.

 

Edited July 19, 2021 by maxjam
added "Proof of a negative test will no longer be sufficient."

[Rammy03]

20 minutes ago, maxjam said:

If this is true...

and "Proof of a negative test will no longer be sufficient."

Then why this?

 

It will create a 2 tier society and/or essentially force everyone, especially young people that are at minimal risk from covid into having a vaccine that may or may not have repercussions years from now.

 

Are football stadiums included in 'crowded venues'

Edited July 19, 2021 by Rammy03

[Gone]

55 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

There's another one this Thursday about the effects of long Covid. I might dial in just for laughs. 

Do it, you’ll regret it for the rest of your life if you don’t. 

[Gone]

1 minute ago, Rammy03 said:

Are football stadiums included in 'crowded venues'

Not Pride Park this season 

[maxjam]

1 minute ago, Rammy03 said:

Are football stadiums included in 'crowded venues'

Considering a few months ago we weren't having vaccine passports, if they aren't included now they probably will be next month.

Hell, the corner shop will probably be included soon.

[rammieib]

1 hour ago, Stive Pesley said:

We almost certainly will - because it's an highly infectious disease with an exponential growth rate.

I suppose this is the moment where things get proven one way of another

If we have a tenfold increase but serious illness and death remains low, then how can we justify more lockdowns?

But the second the modelling on that shows the NHS being threatened again, how can we NOT?

 

 

When a virus goes up, down, up, down, up and down again, how does it have an exponential growth rate?

35k cases today, 54k a few days ago - isn’t that exponential decrease? I’m being facetious in a way there and I also get your point but it’s a virus, it comes and go’s. We’ve seen that in just about every country in the world.

The real question is when these peaks will start to subside and disappear completely. 

[Stive Pesley]

6 minutes ago, rammieib said:

When a virus goes up, down, up, down, up and down again, how does it have an exponential growth rate?

No. of cases only goes down for 2 reasons

1) the lag over the weekends in reporting results (we see that every week)

2) when we take action to break transmission (ie lockdown)

 

[Archied]

12 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Considering a few months ago we weren't having vaccine passports, if they aren't included now they probably will be next month.

Hell, the corner shop will probably be included soon.

Yep mandatory jabs for workers / visitors? in care homes( thin end ) ,vaccination passports yet it’s becoming very very clear that having vaccine does not massively stop you being covid TEST positive and massively aimed at forcing the young who are at next to no risk from covid to take vaccines they don’t need and cannot be garuanteed free from long term issues surfacing ??‍♂️,

ive got this picture in my head of a Adults being told they are going to be shot and getting children lined up in front of them to take the bullets,,, this whole thing stinks and is against the laws of human nature ,, I’m stunned how they have pulled this off with hardly a murmur from people??‍♂️

[ariotofmyown]

48 minutes ago, maxjam said:

If this is true...

and "Proof of a negative test will no longer be sufficient."

Then why this?

 

It will create a 2 tier society and/or essentially force everyone, especially young people that are at minimal risk from covid into having a vaccine that may or may not have repercussions years from now.

 

This crowded venue thing looks like total bull.

Government under pressure as cases are massive just as they unlock everything.

To try and deflect criticism they are going to introduce this vaccine rule at the end of September!

If we are still getting high volumes of cases in 2 and half months time, we'll have much bigger problems than nightclub entry.

Making it up as they go, no strategic plan, total shambles. 

[therealhantsram]

37 minutes ago, maxjam said:

If this is true...

and "Proof of a negative test will no longer be sufficient."

Then why this?

 

It will create a 2 tier society and/or essentially force everyone, especially young people that are at minimal risk from covid into having a vaccine that may or may not have repercussions years from now.

 

Youre conflating two separate points here that aren't related.

The first one about 60% of people in hospital being double jabbed is to be expected. There are two reasons for this, first about 65% of people have been fully jabbed. Second the nature of Covid is that your risk doubles with every 7 years of age. So a 70 year old would be 64 times more likely to be hospitalised than a 28 year old. Now remember the numbers I shared earlier. Vaccination reduces risk of hospitalisation by 95%.  This means a vaccinated 70 year old would still be 3.2 times more likely to be hospitalised than an unvaccinated 28 year old.

In other words, we would expect most people in hospital to be double jabbed. It doesn't mean it isn't working.

Moving on to your next point, why encourage young people to get the jab? The way vaccinations work is that they require a certain percentage of the population to be vaccinated to stop outbreaks occuring. I think from memory they usually want to get over 95% vaccinated for them to be effective in extinguishing the disease. If we can get to that point then we can truly go back to normal and forget about it, much as we have with measles, TB, Polio etc.

That's the goal.

[maxjam]

1 minute ago, therealhantsram said:

Youre conflating two separate points here that aren't related.

The first one about 60% of people in hospital being double jabbed is to be expected. There are two reasons for this, first about 65% of people have been fully jabbed. Second the nature of Covid is that your risk doubles with every 7 years of age. So a 70 year old would be 64 times more likely to be hospitalised than a 28 year old. Now remember the numbers I shared earlier. Vaccination reduces risk of hospitalisation by 95%.  This means a vaccinated 70 year old would still be 3.2 times more likely to be hospitalised than an unvaccinated 28 year old.

In other words, we would expect most people in hospital to be double jabbed. It doesn't mean it isn't working.

I know that point, I made it earlier in the thread.

 

2 minutes ago, therealhantsram said:

Moving on to your next point, why encourage young people to get the jab? The way vaccinations work is that they require a certain percentage of the population to be vaccinated to stop outbreaks occuring. I think from memory they usually want to get over 95% vaccinated for them to be effective in extinguishing the disease. If we can get to that point then we can truly go back to normal and forget about it, much as we have with measles, TB, Polio etc.

That's the goal.

My next point is, having a jab doesn't stop you from contracting covid and it doesn't stop you from passing it on.  Therefore why insist upon mandating double vaccination whilst outlawing proof of a negative test?

Furthermore, whilst I agree that having more people vaccinated might help eradicate covid we simply don't know what long term effects the jabs may have, especially in our younger generations that are minimally effected by covid.  Forcing people to have a jab to attend a nightclub or other 'crowded place' is, given the history of this Govt, just the starting point.  How long until it progresses to every walk of life?

Personally, I am very disturbed by this latest announcement and where it might lead.