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Path to the playoffs


ariotofmyown

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1 hour ago, tinman said:

16 wins needed to reach the play offs. Or 60% of the remaining matches. 
works out to be 1.9 points per game. 

If we can be 9 points off play-offs by the end of Feb, why not. We have plenty of momentum right now with 7 games in Feb and this seasons leagues are showing that anything can happen.

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8 minutes ago, Bald Eagle's Barmy Army said:

If we can be 9 points off play-offs by the end of Feb, why not. We have plenty of momentum right now with 7 games in Feb and this seasons leagues are showing that anything can happen.

Momentum is huge in football, coming from belief and the confidence you can win. We seem to have that in bucket loads.

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1 hour ago, tinman said:

16 wins needed to reach the play offs. Or 60% of the remaining matches. 
works out to be 1.9 points per game. 

I’ll drink to that.... I’ll drink to most things..... I only ever look up

In Phili erm Wayne we trust 

Shaun The Sheep What GIF by Aardman Animations

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After that deadline day I see no reason why we can’t make top 10, play offs are most likely a step too far, however if we do make them I wouldn’t want to be playing us, we’d be on fire. 
I think we’ll go on a little run for the next few games and that will be us pretty much safe, after that I think we’ll stay in good form but not quite blistering form like Villa did. 

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On 30/01/2021 at 23:49, ariotofmyown said:

I've done some analysis and think the playoff charge is still on...

14 points behind 6th place Bournemouth: we've taken 4 points off them and they look poor. Lost 3 on the row now and could be within sight if both our form and theirs continues for a couple of games.

12 points behind 7th place Boro with game in hand: 4 points from last 5 games, beat them and win game in hand then we need to make up 6 points over 18 games. Easy.

11 points behind 8th place Blackburn: probably hardest to catch as on good form. Will need them to start dropping points soon to put the pressure on.

11 points behind 9th place Bristol City: did you see them today? They are rubbish.

10 points behind 10th place Stoke with a game in hand: just 3 draws from last 5 games. Looked poor against us. Very catchable.

8 points behind 11th place Preston down to 2 points behind 17th place Coventry. 3 teams we have games in hand over and all the teams in this group of average.  Good chance we'll finish above all of these.

Summary: We'll need Bournemouth's poor form to continue but only them and Blackburn look tricky to catch.

We're 5th in the form table over 10 games and 1st-6th contains us, plus the top 5 in the league. We just need to find a way to beat the weaker teams now.

 

 

In short ... how many points per game do you think that we would need going forwards?

We can then monitor that ...

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In other words ... in this very pleasurable fantasy football world, in which we reach the playoffs (and get promoted too, of course) ...

... how many points do you think a team will need this season to secure a playoff spot - sixth place?

(And then, I guess, we could work out the points per game, going forwards, and get excited if our future form gets close to that!)

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6 hours ago, Ken Tram said:

In short ... how many points per game do you think that we would need going forwards?

We can then monitor that ...

The main point of my post is really that many of the teams above us either aren't very good and/or on poor form.

We will finish above most of them by 'just' carrying on with our form over last 10 games.

If we could close the gap to Bournemouth and Blackburn by around 6 points in the next 3-4 games, then that would make a big difference.

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