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Path to the playoffs


ariotofmyown

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Time for an update...

On 30/01/2021 at 23:49, ariotofmyown said:

14 points behind 6th place Bournemouth: we've taken 4 points off them and they look poor. Lost 3 on the row now and could be within sight if both our form and theirs continues for a couple of games.

Now 15 points behind them, but with a game in hand. They have sacked their manager now though, so may start picking up.

On 30/01/2021 at 23:49, ariotofmyown said:

12 points behind 7th place Boro with game in hand: 4 points from last 5 games, beat them and win game in hand then we need to make up 6 points over 18 games. Easy.

9 points behind them now, with a game in hand. They are also rubbish, 1 point from 5.

On 30/01/2021 at 23:49, ariotofmyown said:

11 points behind 8th place Blackburn: probably hardest to catch as on good form. Will need them to start dropping points soon to put the pressure on.

8 points behind them now, catching up.

We are then 8 points behind teams in 10th-13th, with a game in hand va all and still to play them all. All easily catchable.

Cardiff have moved into 7th now though. 9 points behind them with game in hand. Need to beat them but catchable.

Reading have started dropping off in 5th now. We are a huge 17 points behind them, but with a game in hand. They would need to go on a pretty poor run on form for us to get close.

I think we'll probably finish top 10 without any change in our form. If we do improve, and Bournemouth or Reading continue their poor form, we could still make a late charge.

We are joint 2nd with QPR on last 5 games, only Brentford better. Other form teams are Wednesday and Rotherham who might well climb the table with us.

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2 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

Time for an update...

Now 15 points behind them, but with a game in hand. They have sacked their manager now though, so may start picking up.

9 points behind them now, with a game in hand. They are also rubbish, 1 point from 5.

8 points behind them now, catching up.

We are then 8 points behind teams in 10th-13th, with a game in hand va all and still to play them all. All easily catchable.

Cardiff have moved into 7th now though. 9 points behind them with game in hand. Need to beat them but catchable.

Reading have started dropping off in 5th now. We are a huge 17 points behind them, but with a game in hand. They would need to go on a pretty poor run on form for us to get close.

I think we'll probably finish top 10 without any change in our form. If we do improve, and Bournemouth or Reading continue their poor form, we could still make a late charge.

We are joint 2nd with QPR on last 5 games, only Brentford better. Other form teams are Wednesday and Rotherham who might well climb the table with us.

The type of form needed is too great. 6th place is usually just over 70 points. To achieve 70 points, it involves 39 points from 18 matches (title winning form and better results than any Derby team almost ever surely). Not impossible but extremely unlikely. 

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On 04/02/2021 at 05:38, Mucker1884 said:

It does not say otherwise.  It doesn't even hint otherwise.  The two statements are exclusive to each other.  Here's the proof...

 

Right now, it is still mathematically possible for Derby County to reach the play offs.

Despite being mathematically possible, I do not believe that Derby County will actually reach the play offs.

 

Both lines being factually correct.  

 

I agree with your view that it's most unlikely that we will make the play-offs (I'll be surprised if we finish within 8 points of 6th place to be honest) but your second line is not factually correct - it's an opinion - not fact.

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35 minutes ago, Wolfie20 said:

I agree with your view that it's most unlikely that we will make the play-offs (I'll be surprised if we finish within 8 points of 6th place to be honest) but your second line is not factually correct - it's an opinion - not fact.

No, no... the sentence "I do not believe that Derby County will actually reach the play offs" is factual.  (I must, however, point out that for now at least, I am only referring to this season!)

The fact is, that is my belief.  The fact is, that is my opinion.  

Similarly, I do not believe in God. Fact.

I do not believe in the afterlife.  Fact.

I do not believe Derby County will ever win The Champions League.  Fact.

See what I'm saying?   ?

 

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