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Reasons why we are where we are .


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I think poor recruitment has finally caught up to us now. No matter how good our academy produces fantastic players, a team needs quality players in their prime to help them and we just dont have these, and we havent had them type of footballers for a long time. Lawrence is in the prime of his career and he hasn't been anywhere near the player we all thought he would be, similar to the likes of Wisdom and Waghorn. 

Thankfully if we do go down to league one, I dont think it's as bad of a scenario as people think. With Mel's change to buy/produce younger players, we've got plenty of value in this team. Bielik and Jozwiak could easily be sold for what we paid for them in my opinion. That's at least £10 million right there. Sell a few more and you're around £20 million plus them off the wage bill. It should keep the club afloat.

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8 hours ago, Rev said:

The same Warnock who was preparing Cardiff for the Premier League at the time?

I don’t like the man but I think Warnock a few years back would have been an excellent appointment.

He would be great for the young players and could rally the team. A few of our players need that hug from time to time.

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43 minutes ago, SouthStandDan said:

Thankfully if we do go down to league one, I dont think it's as bad of a scenario as people think. With Mel's change to buy/produce younger players, we've got plenty of value in this team.

And what do we do with that value in the team? Buy more poo Div 1 players? Pay wages? Buy everyone a coffee?
Getting out of that division will not be easy. Big arsed pros who will bully our yoof. Buy Div journeymen?

I am still not a fan of the academy approach for some clubs., Special prospects will go to 3 or 4 clubs, we will get 2nd/3rd level prospects in the main. Unfortunately that’s where we sit in the food chain. Kids develop at different speeds, if we manage to get a gem, he will soon go. Okay with a price tag but normally within a structure.. So in essence our academy develops players for other teams. We have a couple who have the potential to go further, Sibley and Knight for example. The rest are make weights in reality and will disappear in time.. Does what we get for Sibley and Knight even cover the academy costs? I doubt it..

So now let’s say we do get a couple of mill profit and those funds are set assign for new signings. As has been clearly shown on the thread, recruitment has been a massive issue for us. Headless is being generous.. However are the told to look for a certain type of player by a new manager who wants to change what the previous guy has set up? I am sure that’s a factor and then add to that meddling Morris on a vanity trip having his input mucking things up.

Im sorry it pees off some on this thread but the root cause of our problems is Morris.. 5 why’s is a proven Japanese root cause process.. All roads lead to Morris. Get out Morris and get out quickly, don’t be an advisor, just go and watch games as a fan. Enjoy your money, stick to what you do best. Go please.

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As the thread starter i would like to point out i dont blame Mel for stopping pumping in his millions , what i really meant its quite sad that we already have someone in charge that obviously still has alot of wealth and has become disalusioned with it all. 

I suppose Mel has done things wrong but i dont know, i feel he has had some awful bad luck but its clear he has completely lost interest now and the sooner he hands over to who ever the better . 

I again feel the gap the lampard loans left was never filled the rot has prob started before then as we couldnt really buy big but as Mels interest has wained as he has clung on for a buyer we have suffered . 

I feel we are heading into an awful time , if they takeover i feel investment for players is going to be the same as the takeover time , the lower division is 100% nailed on how people think we are going to get out of this is beyond me . The only slim chance is if these lot takeover right now and enable club funds to wheel and deal properly we might with a bit of luck pull through . But the fact it hasnt happened yet comes across as the new owners dont care if they start in this division or the lower one . They might regret that decision . 

Personally would love to wake up to a completely different lot have taken over and that is what the hold up is . 

Edited by NottsRammy
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1 hour ago, SouthStandDan said:

Thankfully if we do go down to league one, I dont think it's as bad of a scenario as people think. With Mel's change to buy/produce younger players, we've got plenty of value in this team. Bielik and Jozwiak could easily be sold for what we paid for them in my opinion. That's at least £10 million right there. Sell a few more and you're around £20 million plus them off the wage bill. It should keep the club afloat.

We also lose most of the tv revenue (as poor as it is) though. Championship gets 70% of the pot and League 1 gets 20%. I would imagine the value of our sponsorships would also decrease. We could sell (and will probably have to) all of our good players, but then we could quickly find ourselves in a position where we can only afford league 1 quality or below and be stuck down there like Sunderland.

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59 minutes ago, NottsRammy said:

I feel we are heading into an awful time , if they takeover i feel investment for players is going to be the same as the takeover time , the lower division is 100% nailed on how people think we are going to get out of this is beyond me.

I think we're not the only team that will have difficulties this season. We are still able to put out a decent team (albeit with some 'gaps') I think it's still possible to achieve a reasonable position at the end of the season. And then we can start again and will look a decent prospect. Even now there are rumours of other 'investors' from our past history being interested in the club. #COYR

Edited by RoyMac5
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23 hours ago, BramcoteRam84 said:

Some people will inevitably say losing Chris Martin but I refuse to accept losing 1 player is the difference between 10th and bottom 3.

I think Covid has had a big impact. Yes you can argue it’s the same for everyone but I think in recent years we’ve relied on fans to lift us and it’s got us through tight games where we’ve struggled. It’s no coincidence we’ve gone from having one of the best home records in the league for the past 3 seasons (even last season) to the worst this season. However the bigger impact of Covid was the short turnaround time between seasons. With the injuries sustained at the end of last season we didn’t have the time to get players right. Then you add in a transfer embargo due to the EFL appeal, this meant we had to sell to buy to improve the squad, due to the small turnaround time this couldn’t be done until into the season. I think it was inevitable we would start this season slowly, though no one expected this.

Then you have to look at the management. I don’t know what happened in the summer but we came back undercooked. They talked about needing to match the intensity of the likes of Leeds, yet only had 4 weeks to change this. But either way we weren’t fit enough at the start of season. We therefore started badly and Cocu’s thinking became scrambled as he searched for results. Additionally, his complicated training methods, maybe some of the messages that had been landing last season when we rose from bottom 6 to 10th weren’t landing now, or teams had worked us out and he didn’t have an answer. Maybe due to lack of different squad options which leads us to recruitment.

Lets face it is our recruitment dating back to 15/16 that has been a huge problem. Firstly it was throwing money at seasoned pros without thinking about where to play them, meaning they had no resale value and 4 years down the line we’ve still felt the impact through FFP (got to question whether these rules are right, we’ve not exactly thrown money at transfers since 15/16 though admittedly wages have become unsustainable). This continued with Rowett to a lesser degree and definitely with Lampard who has left us with Waghorn Jozefzoon and Malone who we lose in the region of £11m on.

I think we’ve also underestimated the challenge of bringing through the academy players. They will make mistakes, they don’t have experience to fall back on when going gets tough. The are some similarities with this Derby team and the Southampton one that was relegated to League 1, went into admin (I think) although i think we have more experience than that Southampton team. Interestingly that Southampton team contained the likes of Schneiderlain, Lallana, Oxlade-Chamberlain and Walcott. There are probably others i missed. The former two played two seasons in league 1 and then played an integral part in back to back promotions to mid table premier league under Nigel Adkins, also aided by a takeover.
 

Then there is the managerial merry go round where the buck stops with Mel. Big mistake to sack Steve McClaren twice. Clement was a bad appointment, Pearson was a bad fit as he was too dogmatic in his playing style, he needed to adapt to his squad. He was unlucky with Rowett and Lampard moving on, although the latter it would have been interesting how we got on last season without Mount Wilson and Tomori. Ironically, working to a budget and trying to build something would be ideal for Rowett although there would be question marks on whether he’d bring through the youth.  Cocu was a visionary appointment but a combination of his playing style not being suited to championship football and the build up of baggage from years of poor recruitment and some questionable managerial appointments early on meant it didn’t work.

So all of the above is why we’re where we are. I think Mel is partly to blame particularly with the way he managed the club in the first couple of years though I think in the past 18-24 months we’ve tried to follow a more sustainable path but have been hamstrung by the mismanagement dating back a few seasons ago. But I think it’s harsh to put all the blame at his door. He’s tried to compete and we have competed for 5 seasons at the sharp end of the league against clubs that dwarf us with revenues due to parachute payments and we’re now paying the price, exacerbated by Covid. The alternative would be a more sustainable approach but that would involve 3-4 seasons of mediocrity which fans would kick off about and then result in a 1-2 season window where we might have a team to challenge and you have to get it done - in the league that is probably the toughest to be promoted in the world.

Money and the Premier League is ruining football as a whole, we’ve tried to compete and now we’re struggling. And we won’t be the last, I think more clubs financial situations will be brought to bare in the coming 12 months. A certain club in my now home city has the same revenue problems as us due to Covid, high wages due to a squad of about 35 senior pros, they don’t have that many youngsters coming through and they are not going to be promoted this season. How are they going to sustain it?

I think we’re just the tip of the iceberg. Our position is being highlighted as we’re going through a takeover and we’re still going through the EFL 

McClaren had his head turned by Newcastle first time  which coincided with a drop of form from Christmas through to end of February when we dropped from an automatic promotion place. You missed the joyous spell of Clement which ended in an alleged incident with a lady that wasn't Spanish. The rest is spot on. 

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Poor recruitment - With the odd notable exception our recruitment is (and has been for a long time) crap. It's a bloody good job we have had an academy capable of producing quality young players or we would have been in the mire well before now.

Poor management - The process of Lampard moving and Cocu coming in was a farce. It cost us a proper pre-season and set Cocu's tenure off to a poor start. The one criticism I will firmly lay at Cocu's door for this season is that the players haven't looked fit enough. We concede lots of late goals, I suspect that's partially down to everyone being gassed after 70 minutes in almost all of our games.

A poorly managed takeover - This one speaks for itself. There is clearly a problem on the BZG side. Either investors have dropped out leaving them searching for money, or they never had the money in the first place. Either way I don't care. The fact is that this takeover is poorly timed, poorly managed and is having a significant impact on all aspects of the club.

 

Edited by JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta
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On 17/01/2021 at 09:59, angieram said:

If the Chelsea job hadn't come up when it did, Lampard would have stayed another season and we would probably have retained some of the loans or got different ones at a similar level. We may well have been promoted had this happened. A lot of teams who get promoted to do with quality loans in their sides.

I think the bigger deciding factor at the end of that season was the poor preparedness for the new Manager to come in and the complete change of training and playing style. Seemed to confuse the players and knock all the confidence out of them. They've never really recovered.

This is spot on.

I would add that another issue is what seems to be a lack of urgency/determination/venom -

Cocu was going to maker the football all lovely and bring the kids on   .... give him time .... give him time ...

Wayne will be great soon .... give him time ... give him time ...

 

Meanwhile we are averaging less than a point a game.

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Mount, Wilson and Tomori may have had an effect actually.  With them we could play effective possession football, it gave a false impression that we were close to making that system work, ignoring that they were the spine of the team and the creativity.  Cocu tried to continue Lampard's style, but slowing it down for lack of capable players and we saw how that went.  To conclude, we were chasing the wrong system because of three guys.

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Most clubs (without parachute payments) which push for promotion one season, then have a 'reset' the following season. They sell players at peak value and buy in their replacements. Those replacements take a year to grow and then the next season they can challenge again for a season or two. I think Brighton are an example of this. 2 seasons in the playoffs, sold their key CF and winger for over £10m, struggled the next season, pushed for the title the following, before eventually gaining promotion.

We were close on a couple of occasions. After we lost to QPR, we could have had that 'reset' selling Keogh, Bryson, etc. However, as Mel was ambitious and felt we were very close we pushed the boat out to keep those players. We failed in that season due to the small squad depth (and injury to Thorne). Mel felt squad depth was the clear issue, so maybe adding more depth would solve that issue? Only for two of our star midfielders to pick up long-term injuries on the opening day. It's been about sticking plasters over issues since, as it's been a case of 'last chance' every season. Lampard's season was the last real go at things, splashing close to £20m on signings (over £4m of that went to agents!).

This is our long overdue reset. However, due to delaying the reset for so long, the reset is hitting harder than usual. I don't blame Mel, but I feel he let his heart rule over his head for too long which had resulted in us being where  we are. I still  feel there's enough ability in the squad to pull together and avoid relegation, and we have a good foundation to build off for a promotion push next season and beyond.

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On 17/01/2021 at 09:32, NottsRammy said:

I do feel that Mel has pulled the rug in he has had enough, but that grinds a bit when the top rich list comes out and he seems to be getting wealthier but yet has packed in chucking his millions even though he claims he is a fan . Thats one reason for me , although im not currently hating on Mel like a few are doing . 

I think the biggest reason of where we are now is the loaning of 3 big name players Mount , Wilson , Tomori  . When they left it basically stripped the team of nearly all of its quality and we never ever replaced them it was Mels last little chuck of the dice to get us there without commiting to spending much only in wages . 

For me we have never ever recovered from around that time to have a decent balanced squad with any depth . 

Whats peoples thoughts .

What i am saying is i think it hindsight it was a huge mistake to take on so many quality loan players to have them go back atthe season end leaves your team totally bare with to much to make up .

 

The list is endless.

1. Bobby Madley sending Martin off at Burnley and disallowing Hendricks goal

2. Bobby Zamora

3. George Thorne doing his ACL in pre season

4. Albentosa leaving his insoles in Spain

5. Lee Grant punching that one in against Wolves which started our collapse 14/15

6. Bent's penalty miss vs Reading 14/15

7. Hughes and Bryson doing their knees against Bolton and Mel wasting £11m on Butterfield and Johnson instead of getting loans

8. Giving Clement £20m to spend then sacking him in 4th place and giving the job to a man who's only first team managerial experience was losing 4-1 at half time to Ipswich

9. Thorne breaking his leg 10 mins before the FT whistle on the last game before the play offs

10. Throwing everyone up for that corner against Hull in 92nd minute just for Ince to hit the first man

11. Bryson's miss vs Hull in the second leg

12. Summer 2016 signing Anya on a ridiculous contract that we couldn't afford and loaning out Martin without a release clause in January

13. Micro managing Nigel Pearson

14. Appointing McClaren but not giving him the chance to rebuild and utilise Chris Martin

15. Selling Will Hughes for peanuts

16. Rowett building a squad of OAP's

17. The collapse under Rowett. Getting pipped to second place by a pretty average Cardiff team and scraping into the play offs

18. Rowett not playing Vydra or Palmer second leg vs Fulham

19. Showing off to Lampard by letting him spend money that we couldn't afford (£5m waghorn)

20. Putting Carson on a ridiculous contract that we couldn't afford so Lampard had to force him out of the team and play Roos

21. Not starting Marriott at Wembley

22. Roos getting out-jumped by a hobbit

23. Having no plan for when the loans returned to Chelsea and Liverpool

24. Lampard taking 3 weeks to go to Chelsea leaving Cocu with 2 weeks to prepare

25. Trying to replace Mount and Wilson with Dowell and Paterson

26. Ben Hamer/ Roos 2019/2020

27. Keogh getting in Lawrence's car

28. Poor start to 2020/21 season due to not having a fit striker until Waghorn started against Forest in mid October

29. Sacking Cocu and having 4 coaches share the managers job during the Bristol and Boro games

30. It looks like we won't be strengthening an already depleted squad in January due to being in an embargo due to Mel's mismanagement over the last 5 years.

 

Ultimately Sam Rush screwed the club with his ridiculous contracts that we couldn't afford but Mel was the chairman so the buck stops with him.

As it stands it looks like Mel's legacy will end with us in League 1. He has taken us from play off finalists and a very likeable club that was very well run with some great young players coming through - to being a friendless club, that doesn't own their own stadium, that is constantly in the headlines for all the wrong reasons and that will get no sympathy from anyone when/if we are relegated in May. 

 

 

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I was gonna write something similar to this a while back when Cocu left, but I got a but of flack for saying Derby’s problems ran deeper than Cocu and it wasn’t going to solve a lot so binned it until now. 

Anyway, Derby’s problem has been that we’ve been on a steady decline and we’ve all been letting it happen on the promise that we can have something that was always out of our grasp. I get there’s been a few ‘ups’ but let’s face it, the players got steadily worse and the football got steadily worse until we are now in this position where it all could be a little too late to change anything. 

So if we go onto the reasons, I think you have to look at the top and work down. Mel bought the club at a very good time, Derby were on the way up and with a couple of tweaks here and there they had a squad easily good enough for promotion. I think his plan was that once we were in the Prem, the first team becomes self sustaining because of prem money so you can invest in PP and the academy whilst taking the plaudits.  Obviously as he found out, it’s not at easy as that but his solution was to keep spending and to gamble because that would get his plan on track again until now where he’s ran out of money and ran out of loopholes.

With that poor, short term decisions have been made in terms of management who have themselves made poor, short term decisions in recruitment. 

TL:DR - I’m not sure Mel is a football man, rather than an investment man

*Been umming and ahhing whether to post this or whether it crosses a line so I’ve tried to tone it back. Obviously if it does cross a line then please delete.

Edited by TuffLuff
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