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10 wins & 10 draws....


StarterForTen
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As we are now at Steve Nicholson's magic marker point of 15 games in to a season (apparently the table doesn't count before now...) and looking at the historical survival target points figure of something in the late forties (it was 49 last season), we are likely to need 40 points from the last 30 games to stay up.

Putting that simply: TEN wins, TEN draws and TEN defeats.

Have to say, no matter the debate over owners and managers, that looks a mighty steep hill to climb given the squad anyone will have to work with.

A change in ownership and/or manager (from Wayne Rooney, for those who are calling for that) will not provide a silver bullet. We are currently reaping the harvest sewn through the poor management of the squad over the last three years.

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There’s no doubting we’re at risk of relegation but we’ve rarely been dominated by other teams this year. We are often dropping points because of momentary lapses in games despite our overall performance normally justifying more.

A new manager. A steadied ship. More attacking impetuous. Start putting games to bed with a second.

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I've just wasted a few minutes looking back on the tables for previous seasons

https://www.worldfootball.net/schedule/eng-championship-2017-2018-spieltag/15/

I looked at every team with 8 or fewer points after 15 games going back to 99-00. I forgot to actually how many teams actually had so few points, but it was very few - maybe 8 altogether. Of the ones that did, all went down apart form Stoke last season and Bolton in 17-18.

 

It can be done, but it's very difficult. The reality is that we're probably going down.😢

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20 minutes ago, StarterForTen said:

As we are now at Steve Nicholson's magic marker point of 15 games in to a season (apparently the table doesn't count before now...) and looking at the historical survival target points figure of something in the late forties (it was 49 last season), we are likely to need 40 points from the last 30 games to stay up.

Putting that simply: TEN wins, TEN draws and TEN defeats.

Have to say, no matter the debate over owners and managers, that looks a mighty steep hill to climb given the squad anyone will have to work with.

A change in ownership and/or manager (from Wayne Rooney, for those who are calling for that) will not provide a silver bullet. We are currently reaping the harvest sewn through the poor management of the squad over the last three years.

My head says that we cannot get organised in time to get these points. However the target us to keep three teams below is. Some hanmerings on the way before Xmas on the way as we give too many chances away. Top teams could beat us without breaking into sweat. Just wait for the chances to arrive and score a couple for a routine win. How many loans can we get at Xmas.

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Just now, Rampage said:

My head says that we cannot get organised in time to get these points. However the target us to keep three teams below is. Some hanmerings on the way before Xmas on the way as we give too many chances away. Top teams could beat us without breaking into sweat. Just wait for the chances to arrive and score a couple for a routine win. How many loans can we get at Xmas.

None of the top teams have beaten us without breaking sweat, which is the point someone further up was making. 

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33 minutes ago, SouthernRam said:

There’s no doubting we’re at risk of relegation but we’ve rarely been dominated by other teams this year. We are often dropping points because of momentary lapses in games despite our overall performance normally justifying more.

A new manager. A steadied ship. More attacking impetuous. Start putting games to bed with a second.

I think your final sentence is the key one.

I would suggest that every club in the league makes mistakes and have lapses during most games and it's unrealistic to expect to rule them out completely. But if you're not scoring goals they are obviously very costly.

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We have 31 games to go and we currently have 8 points. To be guaranteed of survival is around 52-55 points. So to be absolutely sure of survival we probably need 47 points from 31 games which averages out at just under 1.5 points per game. That would be borderline playoff form for the rest of the season that we need to achieve to hit 55. If we scrape by with 47-49 points that's around 1.35 points per game that is higher mid-table form that was basically what we were hitting last year I think.

 

Personally, I just can't see us doing it. We've wasted at least 5 good home games and got 2 points out of them which makes the task that much harder and given that we haven't beaten Wycombe or Coventry at home I don't know where our wins are going to come from. We definitely need to bring a manager in who can build this team back up in the likelihood we do fall through the trap door. 

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Just now, Leeds Ram said:

We have 31 games to go and we currently have 8 points. To be guaranteed of survival is around 52-55 points. So to be absolutely sure of survival we probably need 47 points from 31 games which averages out at just under 1.5 points per game. That would be borderline playoff form for the rest of the season that we need to achieve to hit 55. If we scrape by with 47-49 points that's around 1.35 points per game that is higher mid-table form that was basically what we were hitting last year I think.

 

Personally, I just can't see us doing it. We've wasted at least 5 good home games and got 2 points out of them which makes the task that much harder and given that we haven't beaten Wycombe or Coventry at home I don't know where our wins are going to come from. We definitely need to bring a manager in who can build this team back up in the likelihood we do fall through the trap door. 

It won't be close to 55 points for survival. Too many teams near the bottom keep dropping points, so I'll be surprised even if it's 50.

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1 minute ago, Ghost of Clough said:

It won't be close to 55 points for survival. Too many teams near the bottom keep dropping points, so I'll be surprised even if it's 50.

Even if it's 47 I don't think we're going to do it. I can't see us only losing 10 games out of the next 30 and I can't see us picking up 10 wins. 

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9 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

We can’t even beat the dead men down around us when given the opportunity..........how are we going to climb out of this?

The good news is that it doesn't actually take many wins to climb up the table. The bad news is that historically, very few teams have suddenly turned around their form and strung together a decent run to get them clear.

It would take a big event to spark such an upturn in fortunes. A takeover which gives significant resources and a top quality manager could be such an event. We could be in a better position than most teams have been whilst being this low in the table. But will it ever happen?

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2 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

It won't be close to 55 points for survival. Too many teams near the bottom keep dropping points, so I'll be surprised even if it's 50.

I imagine we'll finish closer to 35-40 points in the end. We'll pick up more points than we currently have but it won't be enough. 

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3 minutes ago, Leeds Ram said:

I imagine we'll finish closer to 35-40 points in the end. We'll pick up more points than we currently have but it won't be enough.

While we're in touching distance of safety we have a chance. What we cannot do is get cut adrift. The focus now is getting three teams below us

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6 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

It won't be close to 55 points for survival. Too many teams near the bottom keep dropping points, so I'll be surprised even if it's 50.

Current points per game gives 41 points as safety - with Forest, Wycombe and us as the bottom 3 and Shef Wed and Rotherham just outside with 40 points.

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Far better to just think of it as needing to pick up two more wins than 21st. Maybe Forest will pick up too so you can also say two more wins than 20th or 19th. 

This is really something we should be capable of with a bit of fortune and hopefully a change in management. If we can’t do that then frankly we deserve everything we get. A touch more luck and we’d have got those two wins in the last 4 days but I’m confident at some point things will turn. A scrappy win or managing to see it out, maybe even just scoring a second goal.

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