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Mixed Fortunes


TigerTedd
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I was just thinking how fleeting and fickle the football gods are. 

there are some clubs, in the very upper echelons that are there or there about a and have been for generations, and probably will be for generations to come. 

everyone else is up or down. 

check out how things can change:

2007: we beat Southampton in the play off semi finals, and WBA in the final. 

We ended up with the worst premier league season in history, and have been back in the championship ever since.

West Brom went up as champions, and after a bit of yo-yoing had a decent few years in the premier league, and are back up there now. 

southampton had to wait another 5 years but we’re promoted in 2012 and have been there ever since.

point being, we were joyous when Pearson scored to win us that match, but where did it really get us?

2014: we beat Brighton in one of the best performances over 180 mins of my 30 years watching the rams. Then get beat by QPR in the final.

QPR got relegated immediately. They didn’t do quite as bad as our season, but they did do pretty appallingly. Got fined for breaching FFP when they came down (eventually), and have been also fans ever since.

brighton had to wait til 2017, but got promoted and have been a premier league team ever since. (Incidentally, they finished 20th in the season straight after, then 3rd then 7th, so an absolutely terrible season doesn’t necessarily mean that good things aren’t on the horizon).

2016: we got beat in the semi-final by Hull after an abysmal home leg, but a heroic fight back away.

Hull won promotion at Wembley, but just 4 years later, they’re in league 1.

2018: we lost in the semi-final to Fulham, after an absolutely pathetic away leg. Thanks for that snakey. 

granted, Fulham are back in the premier league now, but the season immediately after their victory against us, they were relegated too.

2019: we beat leeds on the glorious day. Oh what a day it was.

but we lost at Wembley to Villa.

a year later and Leeds are promoted as champions.

Villa haven’t actually been relegated yet, thanks to a goal line technology duck up, but give it time.

 

so the point of all this is, along the way, we’ve beaten some teams, and we lost to some teams. But generally, those we’ve beaten have been able to have the last laugh, and those we’ve lost against have not done too well out of it.

i just find that a bit strange, and also take a bit of hope from it. One day our fortunes will change. duck the play offs, we will rocket up the league and go up as champions, it’s the only way to (semi) guarantee a sustainable future.

 

 

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Not strictly on topic, but on the broader subject of mixed fortunes within the the division, look at our opponents on Saturday.

I remember us beating Luton 1 - 0 during our promotion year in 2007.

In the intervening years, they have gone down from the Championship, through the bottom of Leagues One and Two, spent five seasons in non-league and then made the return journey back up again.

At least they've always had something to play for. 

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"Families are always rising and falling in America, am I right?"

It's just the nature of the game isn't it really? A couple of bad managers, a bad owner, some bad luck and your team can be on the slide out of a division. But then a shrewd appointment, an injection of cash, one or two signings that play above their level and you can be on march upwards. I guess it's what keeps people coming back.

Art mirrors life, and football is a fickle mistress indeed.

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Luck has nothing to do with it. The success of clubs will be directly linked to tangible decisions made by the manager, the club or both.

It's like saying Napoleon was unlucky when his Grande Armee was defeated by the Russians because of the extreme cold weather his troops encountered. 

We are where we are along with other clubs not down to chance and whilst not being self flagellants we need to quickly understand why we haven't managed to progress beyond the Championship over the past numerous seasons and more importantly learn from it if we are going to progress. 

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3 hours ago, Alpha said:

I find little odd twists funny. Didn't Shaun Barker join us from Blackpool hoping for a promotion push? 

Teams like Norwich, Leicester, Wolves,Southampton and Leeds all hitting league 1.

But through all that still nobody noticed Everton

It’s funny, we’ve managed to avoid dropping to league 1, a lot of big clubs haven’t been so fortunate. You’d think that would be a good thing, but it seems like it’s actually an essential part if many clubs’ roads to redemption. 

I bet people can hardly remember that ban city were league 1 fodder for a good while before their meteoric rise. 

I bet Sunderland will be back in the Orem before we are at this rate. 

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8 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

It’s funny, we’ve managed to avoid dropping to league 1, a lot of big clubs haven’t been so fortunate. You’d think that would be a good thing, but it seems like it’s actually an essential part if many clubs’ roads to redemption. 

I bet people can hardly remember that ban city were league 1 fodder for a good while before their meteoric rise. 

I bet Sunderland will be back in the Orem before we are at this rate. 

I was thinking the same thing about Sunderland! 🤣

How we're better off than them and for that reason in 2022/23 we'll be in the play off semi final v Charlton and they'll have just finished 6th in the PL. 

I forgot Sheffield United. Having Nigel and a bunch of ex Derby getting beat in the play offs. No threat to us at all. 

Blackpool have been and gone. Bournemouth, I thought Brentford were going to be another. 

Swansea... 

Argh. In Boxing we'd be the Dereck Chisora. The gatekeeper to world level but no threat to world level. 

I preferred it when Ipswich did that job. No doubt they'll pass us again. 

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4 hours ago, Tyler Durden said:

Luck has nothing to do with it. The success of clubs will be directly linked to tangible decisions made by the manager, the club or both.

It's like saying Napoleon was unlucky when his Grande Armee was defeated by the Russians because of the extreme cold weather his troops encountered. 

We are where we are along with other clubs not down to chance and whilst not being self flagellants we need to quickly understand why we haven't managed to progress beyond the Championship over the past numerous seasons and more importantly learn from it if we are going to progress. 

'Luck', or chance, or whatever you call it, plays a huge, huge part.

That doesn't mean good preparation by clubs isn't important. It's crucial. But to pretend that external factors out of your control don't have a massive say on your fortunes is completely wrong IMO.

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3 hours ago, Alpha said:

I find little odd twists funny. Didn't Shaun Barker join us from Blackpool hoping for a promotion push? 

 

The spent half the Barker fee on Charlie Adam. With a bit of playoff luck along the way, he pretty much drove them to promotion single handed the following season. 

Funny how things work out. 

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13 minutes ago, DarkFruitsRam7 said:

'Luck', or chance, or whatever you call it, plays a huge, huge part.

That doesn't mean good preparation by clubs isn't important. It's crucial. But to pretend that external factors out of your control don't have a massive say on your fortunes is completely wrong IMO.

A quote by the golfer Jack Nicklaus sticks in my mind. The more I practice the luckier I seem to get. 

Edited by Tyler Durden
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15 minutes ago, therealhantsram said:

The spent half the Barker fee on Charlie Adam. With a bit of playoff luck along the way, he pretty much drove them to promotion single handed the following season. 

Funny how things work out. 

I didn't know they bought Adam then. Charlie Adam's decline took him back to Reading where of course he had time to score against us. Of course he did. 

 

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2 hours ago, DarkFruitsRam7 said:

'Luck', or chance, or whatever you call it, plays a huge, huge part.

That doesn't mean good preparation by clubs isn't important. It's crucial. But to pretend that external factors out of your control don't have a massive say on your fortunes is completely wrong IMO.

Does it? People or teams don't become successful because of luck. You make your own luck. It's certainly never been a reason why we've consistently failed to get promoted.

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6 minutes ago, GenBr said:

Does it? People or teams don't become successful because of luck. You make your own luck. It's certainly never been a reason why we've consistently failed to get promoted.

You're right, people or teams don't become successful purely because of luck. Talent, hard work, etc, are far more important. Also, the longer the time frame, the more of an effect it has (e.g. cup competitions are more susceptible to it, but full league seasons less so). But it's still a significant factor in success. 

Look at Leeds away in the Play Offs. If Duane Holmes didn't get injured, we probably wouldn't have won the game. That's just in microcosm. Football has so many variables that good or bad 'luck', or whatever you call it, will inevitably be a factor.

Edited by DarkFruitsRam7
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29 minutes ago, DarkFruitsRam7 said:

You're right, people or teams don't become successful purely because of luck. Talent, hard work, etc, are far more important. Also, the longer the time frame, the more of an effect it has (e.g. cup competitions are more susceptible to it, but full league seasons less so). But it's still a significant factor in success. 

Look at Leeds away in the Play Offs. If Duane Holmes didn't get injured, we probably wouldn't have won the game. That's just in microcosm. Football has so many variables that good or bad 'luck', or whatever you call it, will inevitably be a factor.

Its not lucky that Duane Holmes got injured though is it. He is injury prone and i disagree that his injury is the reason we won. Many factors went into the victory, but none of them were luck or supernatural forces.

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Just now, GenBr said:

Its not lucky that Duane Holmes got injured though is it. He is injury prone and i disagree that his injury is the reason we won. Many factors went into the victory, but none of them were luck or supernatural forces.

I don't believe in supernatural forces. When I say 'luck', I think of things that are out of your control.

Duane Holmes having to go off injured was out of our control (unless he warmed up poorly, in which case it's a good job he did). Berardi losing his head and getting sent off was out of our control. Casilla and Cooper being ducking idiots with the ball was out of our control. 

Our incredible desire to win; our refusal to lose and our quality in the final third were the biggest factors in that factory. But those factors that we couldn't control also played their part.

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