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Expectations for 2020/21


Andicis

Where do you think Derby will finish?  

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22 minutes ago, Ramslad1992 said:

Honestly what true fan doesn’t naively think their team can’t finish top? Yes there’s multiple reasons but even at 28 I kid myself into thinking we are going to win the league every year! 

Trust me it doesn’t get any better ..... I’m 57 next month and every pre-season I still think we’re gonna smash the league!!!! ???

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2 hours ago, LeedsCityRam said:

I think ultimately we'll finish top 6 but I suspect we'll be around 6th rather than pushing the top 2. Don't think that is an unrealistic aim & we should be looking to improve from 10th but important fans dont get impatient if we're not top 6 by November. 

Defensively, I'm optimistic we'll improve significantly from last year. A good keeper in, Clarke back to add continuity & a leader alongside him in Te Wierik should cut out a lot of the sloppiness that cost us points last year. It should also help our young fullbacks having that solid foundation alongside them.

Our options going forward are still in flux but we do still have a number of quality options...Lawrence & Sibley are exciting, Marriott & Waghorn are capable of scoring plenty. There is a lack of depth there though & we will need at least a couple of quality additions to get results when injuries & suspensions start to bite. Also unclear at this point to what degree there will be youth team step ups or whether Rooney is redeployed further up the park.

Overall, the club are one year into Project Cocu & their understanding of his requirements should now be much better. They also had 3-4 months of teams looking to press us very high & we should be both used to it & better at playing around that now. Also heartening to hear Van Weerden talk about improving fitness levels...a combination of tactical mastery & much more movement/dynamism will make us very competitive. 

This pretty much were I'm at as well and I think those with more negative takes are not correctly assessing last season and where we currently are.

Despite a crazy tumultuous season, a season where it took till January to really hit any kind of consistent form and one where some our better players didn't emerge until the season was well under way.... we finished 10th 6pts off 6th. 

In terms of the overall squad we a bit ahead already of where we were at the end of the season and quite a bit ahead of where we started the previous season. That to my view already puts in a reasonable place to push for playoffs and if we add the couple of attacking players we are clearly after then I think we will be presenting a serious top 6 challenge.

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If you look at the start of last season, and the end of last season - the players are very different. The team we will see this coming season will be much more similar to the one we had at the end, which with that form would likely have hit top 6 if we'd played like that all season. I expect the young players to get better as the season goes, I think with Marshall and Te Wierik coming in we'll concede less goals.

We also have, for the first time in a long time, a season where we can start with stability. Our players don't have to learn a new way of working or a new formation with a new manager. They are finally set up to hit the ground running. I think even without new additions further from here (which I'm sure we'll get) I would predict us to make top 6.

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I've gone for top 6, based on, we are going to get 2 more really good signings.

Still bubbling over the dismissal by the tribunal, and Clarke back, so think that

Mel may free up something for a winger and forward - if we can get obvious 

quality and creativity, Bielik as well, we could take some stopping.

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Depends who we sign upfront, if we sign nobody or some crap players like Dowell or the Dutch Connor Sammon for big money then we are looking at finishing 13th-10th depending on luck, if we sign some attackers with quality who will improve us then 7th-5th, would have to be two or three fantastic signings to take us around the top 2.

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3 hours ago, Andicis said:

I'm bored of talking about FFP and club finances, let's talk football. On the back of a highly respectable 10th place finish in Cocu's first season, what do we hope/expect for the upcoming season? Personally I'd expect top 6 minimum, and based on the second half of the season form I think it's certainly attainable. 

I think youngsters form will fluctuate.  I think top half but with some really cracking football

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Top half for me as it stands.

I just don’t see enough goals in this team at the moment for us to get into the top 6.

While I do think Marshall, Clarke and Te Wierik are very good signings and will improve us defensively, it won’t be enough to compensate for a questionable looking attack.

Waghorn is a good bet for 10-15 goals and Lawrence is likely to chip in with 5-10 goals too. But outside of that, what do we have?

Marriott hasn’t looked sharp and confident in 15 months. Sibley had an excellent run last season, but who knows how he’ll follow that up?

Martin looks a big loss at the moment.

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Expectation at the minute is a top half finish. I do think we have plenty of potential to exceed that, but that’s all just potential at the minute. 

How will players develop over the course of the season? We have a lot of young players who will be developing each day, so I don’t think a top six finish is unreasonable. I do feel like we need some significant improvement in our wide areas, but we look well stacked in most positions. 

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Without a new forward and attacking right hand side player (apparently I’m allowed to call them wingers) then top half at best. With those two potential signings we should be knocking on the door of the playoffs 

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Top half. 

Lots of 'ifs' all need to go our way to be top 6 or higher.

If we can recruit some pace on the flanks and maybe sign a striker. 

If Rooney can be more dynamic than at the end of last season, Marriott can stay injury free, Sibley can carry on his rapid upwards trajectory. Bielik can return from injury and hit the ground running, if Dutch Mike  is as good as we hope he is and Marshall can be a safer pair of hands than last Roos/Hamer. 

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top half is probable. Top six is possible if everything falls into place.


We are in a much healthier position than we were 12 months ago but we need the team to gel into a tighter unit with a mean competitive streak.  I don’t yet see a Mackay, a Gregory or a Stimac to lead us, but maybe Rooney, bielik or Sibley can provide the necessary drive. 

My biggest fear is slow safe defensive football, the lack of a consistent vision, and the best of the academy products sat on the bench. It took a long time for cocu to pick knight AND Sibley. I’m not sure that he is yet ready to commit to them both or add another academy player into that midfield.

we have produced three excellent attacking midfielders From the academy. We are also well stocked for holding midfielders. Central defence is improved with Te weirik, Clarke, and wisdom. Hopefully we have added a decent keeper. 

the problem positions are at full back, centre forward and wide. Bogle has gone backwards. Lowe still hasn’t grabbed that shirt. We are unsure whether Marriott can lead the attack on his own. And we don’t possess a winger. 

We talk about having patience with young players, and that would help. Lowe improved towards the end of last season and maybe this is finally the year? Bogle needs support in front of him. Hopefully Marriott and waghorn can stay fit and do enough up front, but - as others have observed - we do appear to lack the necessary cover. Whittaker and trialist aren’t oven ready.

Rumour is that we are about to sign a striker and / or a wide player, so we will just have to wait and see. Overall I’m optimistic.

 

 

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As it stands with no further additions I think we will be in that race for sixth spot. Our form in 2020 is top 6, we scored plenty of goals in 2020 but also conceded plenty We will be better defensively with the signings we have made. We’ve lost Martin but a fully fit Marriott will replace those goals, I also think Rooney would be a good number 9 if called upon. Added to that Bird Sibley Bogle (if he stays) Knight will all be even better this season as they continue to develop and we have Bielik to come back. Therefore even with some allowance for other teams improving we are in with a good shout for competing for that 6th spot.

With a couple of the right additions, notably a pacy wide forward or two I think we will have enough for top 6 and even pushing top 2 - if everyone stays fit. Strength in depth could be our biggest issue as it was in 14/15 season but if we have to move to a more sustainable model then that needs to be a sacrifice - just hope all the other clubs do the same.

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My expectations for next season are the play-off positions, which could have been achieved towards the end of last sesson, however, the team came up against five of the top six teams in the last few games, a couple of injuries occurred and Rooney lost form, resulting in the team running out of steam.

Undoubtedly Derby have strengthened the defence with a decent championship 'keeper; a new central defensive pairing in De Weirk & Clarke, plus Wisdom as back-up, although if the rumours are correct, Bogle could be sold and Wisdom will fit in at right back. On the left of defence there is a healthy competition with Forsyth, Lowe & Buchanan who all have their good points without being outstanding.

The midfield is sound, plenty of runners in Sibley, Knight, Holmes, along with the 'grit' of Shinnie and guile of Rooney, although they must begin to score a few more goals, with at least five each this season.

However, it's the attack which is the problem - there's not enough goals from the main striker, which needs to be at least 20 goals per season, which I presume will be Waghorn this season, along with a consistent number of goals from the other forwards, such as Lawrence and Marriott, who must score at least 10 goals apiece to get in the top six.

The priority is to get another forward, either a centre-forward with some height, as we score very few goals from headers, or a wide-sided forward to spread the width and supply enough passes to the other forwards and midfield.

Here's to an exciting season with plenty to cheer about - COYR's

 

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