How do we progress?

[Ambitious]

The season is now effectively over, although we do have one more game left. The post-lockdown form has seen a series of highs and lows. Unfortunately, it's ended on a low and we've been seriously outmatched by the top three which has allowed us to see just how far as a football club we are off the pace from competing at the top of this division. It has to be said that this season has been quite weak, with only 22 points separating the bottom three and the top six. In comparison, it had been 34 points in the last two seasons.

Mel Morris has been extremely adamant in his belief that half the match day squad (9) will be through the academy next season. I would partly put that down to us not necessarily having the funds to strengthen the team with experienced players, even though the academy is providing us with some much required quality at the moment. Cocu, however, is a proven entity and I don't believe he would stick around to be working off scraps so I do think there will have to be something in it for him, other than the bonuses he collects for playing academy players. I would think that there is some professional pride in his work and he will absolutely look to build going into next season something that he believes assembles a league winning side. I understand that the progression of academy players has two major benefits: 1) they're ultimately cheap in comparison to signing a proven player, both in fees and wages. 2) any half-decent academy player (young, particularly homegrown) is immediately a target for Premier League clubs considering their homegrown rules. The fees for these kids is mega when they eventually get sold - look at Bellingham (£25m when all told, with most of that upfront). 

It begs the question, how do we progress as a club? We're potentially coming off our lowest league finish in nearly a decade (we finished 19th in 10-11, 12th in 11-12 and 10th in 12-13). We could perhaps still finish in 10th, but looks extremely doubtful considering the effort we've seen in the last few games - we've largely just been outworked. I would love to just call it a day now, strike the last game off the record, but we'll have to play it and I doubt we will learn anything more. 

Let's focus on recruitment: we already have our first major signing in the bag in Mike Te Wierk. How good he is remains to be seen, but at least he's been in England and training for the last few weeks/month. I don't think any of us quite know what to expect with regards to spending budget, if we have any at all. I'd imagine most Championship clubs, certainly the ones with poorer owners, will need to generate some revenue which will lead to the richer teams getting discounted rates. We could well see more clubs go into administration, I guess at this point it's all conjecture. I would err on the side of caution and think that any incoming transfers would largely have to be generated by outgoing players. The outgoing players most likely to leave: Bogle, Lowe, Bird, Sibley and Knight. The squad as it is now looks quite thin already, so I'd imagine there will have to be more players coming in than going out. The biggest area of concerns are, of course, wingers and goalkeepers. We can visibly see the defence isn't good enough, but that's also a team effort and I just don't think we defend particularly great as a team. The amount of central midfielders we have means we HAVE to be happy with our options in that area. I have absolutely no idea why we were considering bringing Huddlestone back considering we have: Bird, Sibley, Knight, Holmes, Rooney, Bielik, Shinnie and Evans. If Martin leaves, we will require a striker, although ideally you would want an upgrade anyway. It just seems likely to me that any serious interest in any of our CMs will result in their departure and us reinvesting their fees within the squad. I guess it would even be sensible considering the financial situation and where we are at as a club. What I mean by that is that if we were to go into next season, we would not be good enough to compete so something has to improve in order to make that achievable. 

Secondly, the Championship has evolved to a more technical league than it once was and I appreciate that. It used to be the case where you would argue that you get more time in the Premier League than you do in the Championship, now the opposite of that is certainly true. The Premier League has developed into a high tempo, pressing league whereas the Championship has evolved into a more possession-based approach. I think that's partly because teams in the Premier League are now focused more of athletic ability than 10-12 years ago, whereas Championship (lower league) players could climb the leagues by being considerable athletes. Nathan Tyson, Conor Sammon, etc. The Premier League has, obviously, been able to keep the technical ability whilst adding the emphasis on the athletic ability. The Championship, I believe, has simply added more technical ability and now most teams are playing a slightly higher level, more patient brand of football. It helps when older players, who were perennial top-flight players, drop a division and can still contribute a high level of technical ability, even if they can't match the athleticism anymore. I actually believe that as a football team, we have plenty of technically good footballers. The academy lads, all of them who have made the step up, have shown a lot of technical ability in comparison to when Mason Bennett stepped up, who was an extremely impressive athlete. I would however say that we are completely one-paced. We have two players who can get up to speed in Marriott and Bogle, but only Marriott seems to play fast. Bogle is clearly fast, but uses his speed wastefully. This goes hand-in-hand with our need for wingers. We need players who can stretch the field and allow our technically gifted CMs more space in the middle so they aren't easily crowded out at every opportunity. It's something I really think needs addressing this summer, although it shouldn't be too hard to address considering that there's an significant amount of technology and data out there that can be quantified to statistically show how quick players are with or without the ball. 

Ultimately, Cocu has won titles in the past and will now have the chance to put his own stamp on both recruitment and addressing problems. I really just hope that he's backed by Morris to be able to put his stamp on it. Although, with all this said and done, we could well still face a point deduction going into next season that would ultimately leave us in the lurch.

[IslandExile]

Brilliant question. The crux of it all.

You've covered most things in your post but there are other factors relating to finances. Covid has had an effect obviously but FFP and parachute payments need to be sorted out to make things fairer for all clubs in the division.

For Derby, how much more Mel can prop us up or whether we can secure investment may be key.

As exciting and promising as the youngsters are, they do need to be complemented by quality acquisitions or progress will not be as fast as any of us would like.

[Jourdan]

My gut feeling tells me we are in for another tough season, so I'm struggling to answer this question.

I would imagine the only way for us to progress next season is through inspired planning and work behind the scenes, and as much time spent on the training pitches at Moor Farm as humanely possible.

If we started planning for next season in January - as the Te Wierik deal suggests we did - then we might be OK. But I can also easily imagine a scenario where our climb up the table probably put the brakes on any forward planning too.

Getting recruitment right will be tough. You'd imagine we are limited to loans, free transfers and perhaps one major signing for a significant fee. So in the transfer windows to come, this mythical recruitment and scouting team will really have to prove their worth.

 

[Dimmu]

I'm personally happy that we've got good tonking lately, so even the most biased fan can have a reality check after such a good run from January. I'm in no doubt Cocu has seen the problems more clearly now as well. I think the biggest problem is the finances, we most likely need to sell our one or two of our crown jewels to get better players on the key positions and bit of a balance to our squad.

Also, when I say I hope Cocu sees our problems more clearly, I'm still worried does he really understand it. He picked the team inlcuding Martin, Rooney, Davies, Clarke and Forsyth against Leeds.... That's suicidal stuff, eventough he doesn't really have much options. Maybe he'd added Huddlestone to the list, if given such opportunity. One as a midfielder is alright, but have half of the team as slow as I am, is just asking for troubles. No matter how good footballers they are.

[Tyler Durden]

Looking back at our transfer dealings over the past 3 or 4 years gives me zero confidence that despite Cocu obviously having a wish list for next season this same recruitment team will deliver anything like acceptable enough quality for these positions. 

Our transfer dealings have been quite bizarre recently as an understatement - £8 million for Bielik as a centre midfielder when we have a surfeit of players in this position and the transfer fee? Before his injury I've yet to see anything like the level of performance to warrant that fee.

Who sanctioned that transfer? When clearly we needed strengthening in the goalkeeper, winger, centre forward areas. All comes home to roost. Which is why we are in the position we are now. 

[Ghost of Clough]

6 hours ago, Ambitious said:

Mel Morris has been extremely adamant in his belief that half the match day squad (9) will be through the academy next season. I would partly put that down to us not necessarily having the funds to strengthen the team with experienced players, even though the academy is providing us with some much required quality at the moment. Cocu, however, is a proven entity and I don't believe he would stick around to be working off scraps so I do think there will have to be something in it for him, other than the bonuses he collects for playing academy players. I would think that there is some professional pride in his work and he will absolutely look to build going into next season something that he believes assembles a league winning side. I understand that the progression of academy players has two major benefits: 1) they're ultimately cheap in comparison to signing a proven player, both in fees and wages. 2) any half-decent academy player (young, particularly homegrown) is immediately a target for Premier League clubs considering their homegrown rules. The fees for these kids is mega when they eventually get sold - look at Bellingham (£25m when all told, with most of that upfront). 

Let's focus on recruitment: we already have our first major signing in the bag in Mike Te Wierk. How good he is remains to be seen, but at least he's been in England and training for the last few weeks/month. I don't think any of us quite know what to expect with regards to spending budget, if we have any at all. I'd imagine most Championship clubs, certainly the ones with poorer owners, will need to generate some revenue which will lead to the richer teams getting discounted rates. We could well see more clubs go into administration, I guess at this point it's all conjecture. I would err on the side of caution and think that any incoming transfers would largely have to be generated by outgoing players. The outgoing players most likely to leave: Bogle, Lowe, Bird, Sibley and Knight. The squad as it is now looks quite thin already, so I'd imagine there will have to be more players coming in than going out. The biggest area of concerns are, of course, wingers and goalkeepers. We can visibly see the defence isn't good enough, but that's also a team effort and I just don't think we defend particularly great as a team. The amount of central midfielders we have means we HAVE to be happy with our options in that area. I have absolutely no idea why we were considering bringing Huddlestone back considering we have: Bird, Sibley, Knight, Holmes, Rooney, Bielik, Shinnie and Evans. If Martin leaves, we will require a striker, although ideally you would want an upgrade anyway. It just seems likely to me that any serious interest in any of our CMs will result in their departure and us reinvesting their fees within the squad. I guess it would even be sensible considering the financial situation and where we are at as a club. What I mean by that is that if we were to go into next season, we would not be good enough to compete so something has to improve in order to make that achievable. 

I understand where you're coming from, but I don't think bold point 1 works if you plan to do bold point 2. Our squad is thin, but there are a number of players who we can afford to sell without much of an impact - Carson, Mitchell, Hamer, Malone, Jozefzoon, Bennett. Offloading those wages could fund a decent £3-4m transfer and still have room to cover the wages for a year. Free transfers and loans can cover the other areas we want to improve.

6 hours ago, Ambitious said:

Secondly, the Championship has evolved to a more technical league than it once was and I appreciate that. It used to be the case where you would argue that you get more time in the Premier League than you do in the Championship, now the opposite of that is certainly true. The Premier League has developed into a high tempo, pressing league whereas the Championship has evolved into a more possession-based approach. I think that's partly because teams in the Premier League are now focused more of athletic ability than 10-12 years ago, whereas Championship (lower league) players could climb the leagues by being considerable athletes. Nathan Tyson, Conor Sammon, etc. The Premier League has, obviously, been able to keep the technical ability whilst adding the emphasis on the athletic ability. The Championship, I believe, has simply added more technical ability and now most teams are playing a slightly higher level, more patient brand of football. It helps when older players, who were perennial top-flight players, drop a division and can still contribute a high level of technical ability, even if they can't match the athleticism anymore. I actually believe that as a football team, we have plenty of technically good footballers. The academy lads, all of them who have made the step up, have shown a lot of technical ability in comparison to when Mason Bennett stepped up, who was an extremely impressive athlete. I would however say that we are completely one-paced. We have two players who can get up to speed in Marriott and Bogle, but only Marriott seems to play fast. Bogle is clearly fast, but uses his speed wastefully. This goes hand-in-hand with our need for wingers. We need players who can stretch the field and allow our technically gifted CMs more space in the middle so they aren't easily crowded out at every opportunity. It's something I really think needs addressing this summer, although it shouldn't be too hard to address considering that there's an significant amount of technology and data out there that can be quantified to statistically show how quick players are with or without the ball. 

This bold point is why Davies and Fozzy need to move down the pecking order and be emergency backup next season. Our aim should be to be like Leeds and Brentford, playing a high tempo technical style, yet we're still relying on the not so technical players. The counter problem we have had, fielding our most technical team means we're extremely vulnerable in the air. Bogle, Wisdom/Evans, and Lowe in a back 4 will concede a high proportion of goes in the air. We can get away with Bogle and Lowe as fullbacks at the same time if we make up for it by having two CBs who are very good in the air, and a DM who can drop in there to help out. Essentially we need two Clarke's in there with Bielik back fit playing at DM... hopefully te Wierik's that man.

 

 

Ultimately, we have a big task to get to where we want to be. We're a mid-table side now and should be targeting top 6 next season, and (if we don't go up), top 2 the following season. Those targets will reflect how close to the ideal squad we have - a very mixed bag this year (suited to style, inexperience), getting close next year (most suited to style, more experienced), followed by being as close to perfect as we can get the following season.

Currently, we haven't got many players suited to a high tempo technical side, and who are ready to be regulars in a top 6 side. If I had to group our players into those suited to where we want to be, those who need more experience, those not suited to how we want to play, and those we likely to be leaving, it would look something like this...
Suited to style and good enough (at least backup): Roos, Bogle, Wisdom, te Wierik, Evans, Lowe, Bird, Holmes, Bielik, Knight, Sibley, Lawrence, Waghorn, Marriott
Not yet ready: Ravas, Buchanan, Whittaker, other U23s
Not suited: Davies, Forsyth, Rooney, Shinnie.
On the way out: Carson, Hamer, Mitchell, Clarke, Malone, Jozefzoon, Bennett, Martin(?)

 

For next season, as things stand, we need: GK, CB, RW, W/CF
GK only need to be cover and can be a loan. Having Clarke back for another year on loan will plug up that gap for yet another year. Most of our budget should go towards a new RW, as it's the weakest part of our squad. If Martin doesn't stay, we'll need another winger or forward. Either a loan or a young-ish cheap transfer to compete with our other forward options.
Ravas, Buchanan and Whittaker will need game time so they're ready the following season. Loans out may be best, but depending on recruitment could stay as 3rd choice options.

The following season we'd need to recruit: CB, LW, CF.
The players loaned out in 20/21 will hopefully be ready to be decent squad options and fill a few of the gaps. This time we must get a CB on a permanent deal. At LW and/or CF will need to be recruited if not done so the season before - Waghorn will either have left the club or be on the decline, but needs replacing either way.

[Carnero]

If we'd had the same results in the the 2nd half of the season but with the fixtures played in a different order, then there would be less disappointment and over-analysis and more optimism for next season. The Championship is much of a muchness, save for Brentford, Leeds & Fulham, as shown by the table since halfway.

[desirelines]

50 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Our squad is thin, but there are a number of players who we can afford to sell without much of an impact - Carson, Mitchell, Hamer, Malone, Jozefzoon, Bennett. Offloading those wages could fund a decent £3-4m transfer and still have room to cover the wages for a year. Free transfers and loans can cover the other areas we want to improve.

Would be happy to see all of those players go, but who would want to buy them? Also, we won't get a fee for Hamer as he's a loan. 

[ramsbottom]

One thing that struck me watching yesterday's game was how slow we looked.  Every single player looked to be running at half speed compared to The Dirties.  A number of times one of our players went on a run with the ball, with a clear head start on their historically cheating scum counterpart and we're caught up and dispossessed quite easily.  And it wasn't the old guard, Knight Sibley, Bogle were all caught out.  Is that a fitness thing, or do we simply lack any kind of pace?

As I've said on other threads we need to prioitise a goalie, another centre back to compete either Wisdom or Twerk for a starting spot (Curtis bless him, should only be used as a last resort), and I'd say two proper speed merchants that can play either wide or upfront.

[RoyMac5]

1 hour ago, Carnero said:

If we'd had the same results in the the 2nd half of the season but with the fixtures played in a different order, then there would be less disappointment and over-analysis and more optimism for next season. The Championship is much of a muchness, save for Brentford, Leeds & Fulham, as shown by the table since halfway.

Stop being so common-sensical!

If we'd had Lawrence or Waghorn plus Wisdom for these past few games I think there's have been a different outcome. 

[RoyMac5]

19 minutes ago, ramsbottom said:

One thing that struck me watching yesterday's game was how slow we looked.  Every single player looked to be running at half speed compared to The Dirties...

Quote

Cocu: "Yes. And I made myself very clear at half time, and even at the drinks' break. I thought the second half we came out much better, scored a good goal, but within two or three minutes they scored an equaliser and from that moment on I think Leeds were the better team and were more likely to win, and that is what happened.

Part of it is the quality of the team, it is obvious that they have a good squad even with a lot of changes, a real good team, physically the best team in the League, they run with so much high intensity. But for us it is a hard lesson, so we know what we have to improve on the physical part.

But also on the pitch, you have to be more effective, more solid. If you go 1-0 up, if we can stay in the game 10 or 15 minutes longer, I think it is very likely we can get a good result. But it happened a few times this season that we concede so early after the restart, and that is something why we are back in mid-table."

 

[England Ram]

Cocu's post match was spot on for me yesterday. He clearly pin pointed all the flaws and was clear he knows where we need to strengthen. If he has the chance to do that or not is another thing.

We should already be on the way in part with the new CB as he apparently is a good passer of the ball from the back, unlike our lovable Davies who the opposition wait to receive the ball then press so he gives it away. The other challenge we have at the back is probably losing Clarke back to Brighton as we are left in the same situation as we are now.

 

As others have said, new goalkeeper, some actual pace on the wings or up front and not so many dismissals or drunk driving next year might do us OK.

 

 

[Millenniumram]

Two things need to happen for me:

1. We need additional investment. I get the feeling Mel doesn’t want to put much more money into the club - which is absolutely fair enough given how much he’s put in already. Everyone has limits. But we’re so far off being a competitive team right now that we’re not gonna get anywhere without some decent money spent. I just hope we can finally get an investment deal done over the summer, so we can give Cocu the funds he desperately needs and actually allow him to bring some players in for once.

2. We need to restructure our recruitment team. The root of all our problems in recent years hasn’t been all the managers, injuries etc etc... it’s been the absolutely shockingly bad recruitment. It’s been appalling for years, yet we never seem to do anything about it. We’ve sacked all the managers, yet I’m pretty sure we still have the same people in charge of recruitment! We need to put a much greater focus on improving the quality of our recruitment, and the size of our scouting network. I’d start by getting rid of everyone who’s been involved in the last few transfer windows.

[sage]

The key to next season will be

1) How well we manage to rid the deadwood from the squad.  We simply can't afford to have high earning players who aren't contributing. Josefzoon, Malone and sadly Davies are just going to be a waste of wages for their last season with us unless we are lucky enough to move them on.  

2) What fees we will offered for what player. I really don't think we will sell on of the youngsters unless we get silly money. The only senior players who could command 7 figure fees are Lawrence, Marriott and Bielik. As Bielik was a Cocu signing and has been injured for so long I can't see us selling him.  Therefore I can see us accepting offers for Lawrence and Marriott if good ones are made.

That;s before we talk about recruitment. 

[RamNut]

The success of this season is the emergence of Lowe, bird, knight, and sibley, and the addition of shinnie. Without those 5 we would really be struggling. We have added te wierik and are yet to see the benefit of bielik. 
Add wisdom, Evans, Fozzy, Holmes, and Waghorn and that is about half a squad.

we have to make hard decisions about some of the others - including roos, bogle, Rooney, Lawrence, Martin, jozefzoon, Bennett  and Marriott. The last minute wobble over losing huddlestone shows a lack of judgement and flip flop decision making. It should have been an easy decision yet we managed to make hard work of it, and eventually Tom made the decision for us. 

some of the youngsters are not yet ready for first team action - buchanan and Whittaker included. Let them develop without the added pressure of expectation.

others would seem to be surplus and need moving on ASAP - notably davies, and Malone.

Thereafter it’s all about smart recruitment.
Cocu didn’t bring a scout as far as we are aware. He is therefore presumably dependent  upon a recruitment team that has delivered very little. The emphasis on academy progression is a get out of jail free card for them.

Time to discover what Phillip can bring to the table. Tinkering and indecisiveness or a cool headed vision of how to play and the players we need?

Game on.

[RoyMac5]

2 minutes ago, RamNut said:

The last minute wobble over losing huddlestone shows a lack of judgement and flip flop decision making. It should have been an easy decision yet we managed to make hard work of it, and eventually Tom made the decision for us. 

I would have thought Tom made the decision for us because he wouldn't take the contract offered - nothing to do with flip-flopping. Rather sticking to our budget.

[RamNut]

Just now, RoyMac5 said:

I would have thought Tom made the decision for us because he wouldn't take the contract offered - nothing to do with flip-flopping. Rather sticking to our budget.

Why are we offering a contract in the first place?

[RoyMac5]

1 minute ago, RamNut said:

Why are we offering a contract in the first place?

Because we wanted him to stay?

[RamNut]

9 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

Because we wanted him to stay?

And therein lies the lack of judgement.  

[Curtains]

Not sure what the future holds for us. 
 

I know people think the Academy players will do it for us and get us promoted.

With the likes of Villa , Norwich and Bournemouth coming down with parachute payments and us facing a points deduction I think Cocu has his work cut out  .

We will have a reduced budget also