Why I Don't Think We Will Make The Play Offs

[Anag Ram]

39 minutes ago, RamNut said:

The challenge will be for the players to show what this team is made of, and whether they have the qualities necessary to succeed. This will now become a test of character, as much as anything.

We will have to show that Poor Discipline is no longer an issue.
We’ve seen red cards four times this season with Lowe, Malone, bielik and Lawrence.
We have the worst disciplinary record in the top half of the table, with twice as many sendings offs as any other top-half team including Leeds and Millwall; And four times as many red cards as Forest. 
Similarly with yellows. If we use Leeds players as the benchmark, then “dirty“ players like Phillips, alioski and Ayling  average one Yellow card every four games. Lawrence has had more bookings than any of them - averaging 1 in 3. Shinnie averages a yellow card every 2 appearances, and Sibley is so far picking up a yellow card almost every game with 3 in 4 appearances. This could yet cost us again.

We will have to show that Poor away Performance is no longer an issue.

We have had a terrible away record this season - 6 consecutive defeats, and 13 consecutive away games without winning. Even since Wayne’s arrival,  prior to lockdown, we were still losing half of our away games - including defeat at Luton Town. we rarely keep a clean sheet. In fact, not a single away clean sheet this season. (The last away clean sheet was 14 months ago).

Time to demonstrate that we have achieved a remarkable transformation and that all of the above is irrelevant history. 

 

I think the clean sheet situation is unlikely to improve. We still suffer from lapses in concentration. Defenders switch off and find themselves distanced from their opponents. Goalkeepers stay rooted to their line or else flap at crosses.

Our defence plays nice football but doesn’t yet have that attitude which will make it tough to score. Andre Wisdom should be ranting at them. 

For all his critics and his craziness, Keogh did have a go at his back four.

A more dominant and confident keeper behind them would help too..

[Ghost of Clough]

5 minutes ago, Anag Ram said:

I think the clean sheet situation is unlikely to improve. We still suffer from lapses in concentration. Defenders switch off and find themselves distanced from their opponents. Goalkeepers stay rooted to their line or else flap at crosses.

Our defence plays nice football but doesn’t yet have that attitude which will make it tough to score. Andre Wisdom should be ranting at them. 

For all his critics and his craziness, Keogh did have a go at his back four.

A more dominant and confident keeper behind them would help too..

Interesting comment about Keogh.

Our current goals conceded per game equates to 61.3 over a season. With Keogh at the club, we only did worse once, in his first season with us (12/13) conceding 62. Other seasons were 52, 56, 43, 50, 48, and 54. Although we had Grant, prime Carson and in form Roos in goal for those seasons, Partnered with Buxton, Shackell, Pearce, Davies and Tomori at the back. A bit of a step up from Roos/Hamer with Clarke and Davies/Wisdom at the back. Maybe Keogh's ranting didn't really have much of an impact.

[Dimmu]

1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Interesting comment about Keogh.

Our current goals conceded per game equates to 61.3 over a season. With Keogh at the club, we only did worse once, in his first season with us (12/13) conceding 62. Other seasons were 52, 56, 43, 50, 48, and 54. Although we had Grant, prime Carson and in form Roos in goal for those seasons, Partnered with Buxton, Shackell, Pearce, Davies and Tomori at the back. A bit of a step up from Roos/Hamer with Clarke and Davies/Wisdom at the back. Maybe Keogh's ranting didn't really have much of an impact.

I'm pretty sure it did, just a negative one.

[r4derby]

49 minutes ago, mozza said:

 ... Plus, there's always the possibility of a points deduction, to scupper us, EFL would try and stop us leaving their fold, anyway they can..

 

In some ways, now is the time to get a points deduction if we are going to be given one. Not likely to go down this season, and would mean we get to start fresh next season with a team more confident from the start. To have it delayed until next season hurts our chances next year as well. This is all hypothetical, of course, as it is still so unknown as to whether we've actually broken the rules set by EFL.

[sage]

8 hours ago, Millenniumram said:

True, but we’ve still been conceding too many goals. In all seriousness, it’s not solely on the goalkeepers - but if we don’t make it, I think it’ll be likely down to our defence. In my opinion, two key moments have really hurt our season - the failure to recruit a proper goalie in the summer, and Richard Keogh getting injured during Joiners-gate. With Keogh and a quality goalkeeper in this side, I think we make the playoffs with ease. We might still make them of course, but it’s gonna take something special.

Welll that is a season long view and a valid one. I was theorising why our current run of form won't continue to the end of the season.

 

 

[sage]

1 hour ago, LeedsCityRam said:

A pretty good analysis of our shortcomings. Whilst the lack of crowds should help our away form & hotter weather should help our style (and partially compensate the lack of pace throughout the team), the reality is we're only really strong in midfield. Elsewhere the squad is quite patchy with striking options particularly threadbare. Is this the time to see how Hector-Ingram and Whitaker's pace could help the side?

Whilst I accept Reading outran us on Saturday in the second half, our control of the ball wasnt really good enough. If we're set up to play this way, we need to be much better at retaining possession when we lose momentum in games. Thats not a fitness issue, its a mindset and concentration issue.

P.s. @eezzeetiger really easy bite that ? 

I would agree and considered adding that the chances missed by Millwall and Reading after we lost possession may well be capitalised upon by better teams but i didn't want to complicate the post.

Millwall missed 2 one on ones and Reading had 2 chances before we scored.

 

[FindernRam]

We are going well and current form if maintained will see us in the playoffs. I agree with @sage about our team, but I also look at the others, many teams in this division have elderly players, a whole bunch of injuries, and will also struggle with the schedule. Reading did outrun us, but can they do that next game as well In 2 weeks time the middle table 10 teams could look completely different.

Home and away differences seem to have gone out the window which is another randomising factor.

Are we good enough to go up? Possibly, Would it be another Prem season of humiliation? yes! We already have a terrible defence, there is not a lot of signs of anything much happening to boost it. We'd get eaten alive  in the Prem 

[sage]

12 minutes ago, FindernRam said:

We are going well and current form if maintained will see us in the playoffs. I agree with @sage about our team, but I also look at the others, many teams in this division have elderly players, a whole bunch of injuries, and will also struggle with the schedule. Reading did outrun us, but can they do that next game as well In 2 weeks time the middle table 10 teams could look completely different.

Home and away differences seem to have gone out the window which is another randomising factor.

Are we good enough to go up? Possibly, Would it be another Prem season of humiliation? yes! We already have a terrible defence, there is not a lot of signs of anything much happening to boost it. We'd get eaten alive  in the Prem 

I would disagree with the last paragraph as we now have clarity of thinking in the boardroom and we don't have a rampant egotist as manager.

 

[Van der MoodHoover]

2 hours ago, sage said:

Welll that is a season long view and a valid one. I was theorising why our current run of form won't continue to the end of the season.

 

 

 

2 hours ago, sage said:

I would agree and considered adding that the chances missed by Millwall and Reading after we lost possession may well be capitalised upon by better teams but i didn't want to complicate the post.

Millwall missed 2 one on ones and Reading had 2 chances before we scored.

 

And they call ME a MoodHoover......?

[Rammy03]

9 hours ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

Think Villa did ten straight wins last year and palace did a load one year , Would be impressive but not the best .

True but I believe we were 17th when Rooney joined. Don't think villa or palace ever went that far down

[FindernRam]

2 hours ago, sage said:

I would disagree with the last paragraph as we now have clarity of thinking in the boardroom and we don't have a rampant egotist as manager.

That is true, but until it translates into a solid defence on the field it means nothing. Our goals conceded is diabolical, and shows no sign of improving.

[Tyler Durden]

Our undoing will be our porous defense and suspect goalkeepers when we need to keep a clean sheet and scab a 1-0 win. Just puts additional pressure on our forward lines all of the time to outscore the opposition. 

[Parsnip]

7 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

Our undoing will be our porous defense and suspect goalkeepers when we need to keep a clean sheet and scab a 1-0 win. Just puts additional pressure on our forward lines all of the time to outscore the opposition. 

So you're saying we're like Brazil?

[Ghost of Clough]

1 minute ago, Tyler Durden said:

Our undoing will be our porous defense and suspect goalkeepers when we need to keep a clean sheet and scab a 1-0 win. Just puts additional pressure on our forward lines all of the time to outscore the opposition. 

2-1 to the Derby!

In 2020 we have the joint most goals scored and the 2nd best GD

Our 19 goals conceded is better than Bristol's 22 and level with Preston. With the exception of Millwall (12), our other promotion rivals aren't that much better... Blackburn, Cardiff and Forest(17) Swansea (16), Fulham (15). However, they're all significantly worse in front of goal (Fulham have only scored 13!!)

[Ambitious]

In all likelihood we will miss out. I think the majority of us recognise that, although it would be nice to see us keep the dream alive a little bit longer. 

If we can win our next two then we may well be in the conversation, but as it stands I think we are still unlikely. 

 

[TuffLuff]

We will have a clearer picture after the next two games. Not just in results but in terms of how we are playing and our confidence. 
 

Key thing for now is just to enjoy it I suppose, it’ll be a fantastic achievement to sneak in with the context of this season and it’s ups and downs. But if we don’t we probably have the best base going into next season than we’ve had for many a year 

[RadioactiveWaste]

I just don't think we've been good enough to be a top six team this season.

We've been improving and we're definitely at the point of being a "decent" championship team but not yet a top one.

That and Sheff Wednesday verdict will give us an idea of how donald ducked we are regarding the FFP - and if we are to be docked points, better this season than next, although "suspended" sanctions would be a good outcome.

[Yani P]

Every team we play are going to be playing 2 games a week so shouldnt make a difference - it will boil down to bits of fortune when we are playing poorly, winning ugly at times, we have by far the hardest run-in by a mile so it looks difficult but the team mindset will make a massive difference..if they really believe it and really want it then its more than possible. I remember putting a thread up in late December I think saying promotion was still more than possible, I think most thought I had some special christmas drugs but we are now in a position where it is 100% in our own hands. Who would have believed that?

We have had a superb 2nd half of the season so far, as good as our first half was truely diabolical..all to play for.

[Rampage]

8 hours ago, RamNut said:

The challenge will be for the players to show what this team is made of, and whether they have the qualities necessary to succeed. This will now become a test of character, as much as anything.

We will have to show that Poor Discipline is no longer an issue.
We’ve seen red cards four times this season with Lowe, Malone, bielik and Lawrence.
We have the worst disciplinary record in the top half of the table, with twice as many sendings offs as any other top-half team including Leeds and Millwall; And four times as many red cards as Forest. 
Similarly with yellows. If we use Leeds players as the benchmark, then “dirty“ players like Phillips, alioski and Ayling  average one Yellow card every four games. Lawrence has had more bookings than any of them - averaging 1 in 3. Shinnie averages a yellow card every 2 appearances, and Sibley is so far picking up a yellow card almost every game with 3 in 4 appearances. This could yet cost us again.

We will have to show that Poor away Performance is no longer an issue.

We have had a terrible away record this season - 6 consecutive defeats, and 13 consecutive away games without winning. Even since Wayne’s arrival,  prior to lockdown, we were still losing half of our away games - including defeat at Luton Town. we rarely keep a clean sheet. In fact, not a single away clean sheet this season. (The last away clean sheet was 14 months ago).

Time to demonstrate that we have achieved a remarkable transformation and that all of the above is irrelevant history. 

 

Home and away games with no fans is a great leveller. Slower build up teams may have an advantage when not fully git. Rams are playing an energy economical game. Bursts of speed may prevail over high energy teams and could mean less injuries. Injuries may decide many games. We are proud of the team and of the style of play. We are becoming predictable, predictably good. We have no need to fear and we have a good balanced, fit and highly motivated squad. Cocu has possibly put £50 million on the squad in one season. COYR.

[Sparkle]

So a couple of defenders scoring in the next two games getting us two 1-0 wins is acceptable then?