Exit strategy

[RamNut]

3 minutes ago, sage said:

In terms of massaging public opinion/confidence the polls at least suggest they have a long way to go to convince the public to go along with the reopening of society.

Unfortunately many workers will have no choice. They will be instructed to return. 
And even without the political pressure, lockdown will become increasingly impossible to enforce as the weather improves.  The police - who have sadly failed to demonstrate universal common sense - will be spared the embarrassment of trying to disperse holiday crowds. 
I think it’s going to be a tough summer for the nhs. 

[G STAR RAM]

28 minutes ago, sage said:

Al the evidence I have seen from school colleagues is that schools won't fully reopen until September.

That would indicate that they have had Governments or, at the very least, local authority guidance.

If this is being given to the schools then why not also to the general public?

We need to be able to plan as well as schools.

How can any of us plan to reopen businesses if there is going to be nobody to look after our children?

 

[Eddie]

1 hour ago, sage said:

Far off?

It was far out, man.

[sage]

7 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

That would indicate that they have had Governments or, at the very least, local authority guidance.

If this is being given to the schools then why not also to the general public?

We need to be able to plan as well as schools.

How can any of us plan to reopen businesses if there is going to be nobody to look after our children?

 

When I say 'open' I mean 'fully open'. I can see the number of children allowed back to increase in June. Perhaps as you suggest for people who want/need to return to work but can't because of childcare. From the numbers currently attending that I am aware of (around 5% in the schools I work in) then that could rise to 10%-20% whilst still doing a reasonable job of social distancing. 

However the younger the child, the more difficulty they will have in following these rules.  

[rammieib]

1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said:

That would indicate that they have had Governments or, at the very least, local authority guidance.

If this is being given to the schools then why not also to the general public?

We need to be able to plan as well as schools.

How can any of us plan to reopen businesses if there is going to be nobody to look after our children?

 

It's too late September in my opinion. I think we need to get the economy reopening and freeing up people for a few hours a day is required.

I also dont buy the fact it's only 17% who feel they would let their children go to school? Firstly that could be an opinion based on the UK now. The UK in 30 days from now will be different to what it is today. Next point, are we saying attendance would only be 17% if they opened tomorrow?  Not a chance - would be way over 50. I would send me 5 year old back to Primary School if it opened. We can see the effect of not being in school in her own mental health.

I would strongly suggest though that returning to school is optional for parents. This would help on the social distancing side of things. I'm  not sure how teachers feel though? Any teachers on here?

[Mucker1884]

2 hours ago, Tyler Durden said:

Grant Shapps is talking today about workplaces staggering their opening hours to ease the pressure on the morning and evening rush hours on public transport and by also looking at encouraging workers to walk or cycle to work.

Would be very interested to see how the latter develops for me it's not feasible given the distance of my commute but I guarantee that there are people currently driving to work who live within a 2 mile radius.

Given the increased number of joggers and cyclists recently during the lockdown I'll be also interested to see how many of those translate their activities to their daily commute. 

Good post.

I'm bang on one mile door to door.  I drive to and from the office every day (normally, that is).  Some days, I can be in the office all day.  Some days, I have one (or multiple) planned site meeting/visit(s), so know I'll be going out later that day.  Some days, I could plan on being (or expect to be) in the office all day, but one 'phone call could change that, and I'd have to go out to site.  (Our sites are generally East Midlands, but technically UK-wide.  The latter would of course be more planned ahead, and less "on spec"!)

I am not a new cyclist.  I have lost count of the number of times I've looked at the sunshine at 06:30 in the morning, and thought "Hmmm... I'd love to get the bike out, and cycle to work".  But unfortunately, it just ain't practical for me.  More's the pity!    ?

[Van der MoodHoover]

3 hours ago, sage said:

When I say 'open' I mean 'fully open'. I can see the number of children allowed back to increase in June. Perhaps as you suggest for people who want/need to return to work but can't because of childcare. From the numbers currently attending that I am aware of (around 5% in the schools I work in) then that could rise to 10%-20% whilst still doing a reasonable job of social distancing. 

However the younger the child, the more difficulty they will have in following these rules.  

And the bigger risk to the staff trying to enforce some semblance of distancing. 

And I assume if the idea of wearing of masks takes hold that's a complete non starter for staff and pupils.

So you have to reach the stage of a high degree of confidence in everyone's health. Back round we come to testing...

[sage]

1 hour ago, rammieib said:

It's too late September in my opinion. I think we need to get the economy reopening and freeing up people for a few hours a day is required.

I also dont buy the fact it's only 17% who feel they would let their children go to school? Firstly that could be an opinion based on the UK now. The UK in 30 days from now will be different to what it is today. Next point, are we saying attendance would only be 17% if they opened tomorrow?  Not a chance - would be way over 50. I would send me 5 year old back to Primary School if it opened. We can see the effect of not being in school in her own mental health.

I would strongly suggest though that returning to school is optional for parents. This would help on the social distancing side of things. I'm  not sure how teachers feel though? Any teachers on here?

That's what opinion polls are. A reflection of opinion on that date. 

Scientifically decisions will be made on infection numbers and the 'r' number. However public confidence will be more influenced by death rates which are running about 3 weeks behind infection dates. I think the other thing to consider is if schools do not reopen straight away after May half term then there will be the issue of is it worth opening for a few weeks with the 6 week hols coming up.

I am a PE Teacher in 2 primary schools. I am not looking forward to going back, especially as I teach most of the kids in school not just one class. It's a lot of exposure with kids who will be breathing harder than normal. . 

[rammieib]

2 hours ago, sage said:

That's what opinion polls are. A reflection of opinion on that date. 

Scientifically decisions will be made on infection numbers and the 'r' number. However public confidence will be more influenced by death rates which are running about 3 weeks behind infection dates. I think the other thing to consider is if schools do not reopen straight away after May half term then there will be the issue of is it worth opening for a few weeks with the 6 week hols coming up.

I am a PE Teacher in 2 primary schools. I am not looking forward to going back, especially as I teach most of the kids in school not just one class. It's a lot of exposure with kids who will be breathing harder than normal. . 

Thanks Sage. I really do want my daughter to go back, even if it’s just for 6 weeks of lessons. Even though she’s only five we can really see a difference in her attitude since being off and we’re not able to give her the time she needs.

Maybe a little more research can be released about whether under 10’s do pass this virus on. I’m quoting the Swiss Health Officer here who has said they don’t but that’s been contradicted by the WHO with their standard ‘We don’t know’ line.

I understand your view point from a teacher as well and you would feel at risk. 

 

[Jourdan]

5 hours ago, rammieib said:

It's too late September in my opinion. I think we need to get the economy reopening and freeing up people for a few hours a day is required.

I also dont buy the fact it's only 17% who feel they would let their children go to school? Firstly that could be an opinion based on the UK now. The UK in 30 days from now will be different to what it is today. Next point, are we saying attendance would only be 17% if they opened tomorrow?  Not a chance - would be way over 50. I would send me 5 year old back to Primary School if it opened. We can see the effect of not being in school in her own mental health.

I would strongly suggest though that returning to school is optional for parents. This would help on the social distancing side of things. I'm  not sure how teachers feel though? Any teachers on here?

I am a teacher, but in Portugal not the UK. All of our classes are online until the end of the current academic year (with a few exceptions).

To be honest, I would go back to teaching in a classroom full of kids tomorrow if I could, with all the safety measures under the sun of course.

I think online classes can work well as the most temporary of temporary measures, but by the end of the academic year it will have been almost four months of teaching online - nearly half of the school year.

None of my students have commented to say they are enjoying online classes. They are desperate to be back in school mixing with other kids and learning in a classroom. The appetite for online classes just doesn’t exist. It’s a headache for both the teachers and the children.

I think they enjoyed the novelty of it for a week or two, but now seven weeks in, the majority of them are really struggling to stay switched on and really benefit from it. They have Zoom fatigue and lockdown fatigue too.

[Angry Ram]

4 hours ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

And the bigger risk to the staff trying to enforce some semblance of distancing. 

And I assume if the idea of wearing of masks takes hold that's a complete non starter for staff and pupils.

So you have to reach the stage of a high degree of confidence in everyone's health. Back round we come to testing...

Mrs Angry teaches and has already been told she will have to wear a mask.. The only problem is that she works with kids with learning disabilities including autism, they all want to hug her and will pull the mask off. 
She’s convinced June in some small way, I would say September.

[ramit]

1 hour ago, rammieib said:

Thanks Sage. I really do want my daughter to go back, even if it’s just for 6 weeks of lessons. Even though she’s only five we can really see a difference in her attitude since being off and we’re not able to give her the time she needs.

Maybe a little more research can be released about whether under 10’s do pass this virus on. I’m quoting the Swiss Health Officer here who has said they don’t but that’s been contradicted by the WHO with their standard ‘We don’t know’ line.

I understand your view point from a teacher as well and you would feel at risk. 

 

There has been robust program of contact tracing here in Iceland and what it shows is that kids and young teens very rarely infect adults with the virus.  i would take such statements with a grain of salt if not for our genetics company agreeing with the official assessment, using their much wider collection of data to reach that conclusion.

[sage]

1 hour ago, Jourdan said:

I am a teacher, but in Portugal not the UK. All of our classes are online until the end of the current academic year (with a few exceptions).

To be honest, I would go back to teaching in a classroom full of kids tomorrow if I could, with all the safety measures under the sun of course.

I think online classes can work well as the most temporary of temporary measures, but by the end of the academic year it will have been almost four months of teaching online - nearly half of the school year.

None of my students have commented to say they are enjoying online classes. They are desperate to be back in school mixing with other kids and learning in a classroom. The appetite for online classes just doesn’t exist. It’s a headache for both the teachers and the children.

I think they enjoyed the novelty of it for a week or two, but now seven weeks in, the majority of them are really struggling to stay switched on and really benefit from it. They have Zoom fatigue and lockdown fatigue too.

Our death rate is 5 times worse than Portugal's. You may be less enthusiastic here. A mate of mine teaches in London and as part of the rota has to go back in 2 weeks time. This will mean using the Tube. I would want an astronaut suit.  

[RamNut]

every front page is dominated by ‘back to work’ stories so I would say it’s definitely coming soon.

there is no scientific justification for that. we have more cases now that when we entered lockdown, but as predicted, the tables are turning due to economic,  political and some social pressures.

with regards to the risks from kids etc.....
it is interesting that the disease affects kids to far lesser extent, and also affects men more than women.

this will have a genetic explanation.
In terms of men v women and susceptibility to infection, I would suspect that there is a gene on the X chromosome that is somehow useful in the immune response and women have the benefit of two copies of the gene whereas men only have one. 
as for adults v kids: gene expression is turned on and off by methylation of dna, and this switching on or off changes with age. This is why we acquire disease as we get older, notably auto-immune diseases and cancer. 
adults have probably turned off another gene which is useful in combatting the virus.

so if this is true....it really is safer to be surrounded by kids than adults.

if a virus carrier does arrive in school, adults will be more at risk than the other kids. 
I would be tempted to test the kids temperatures, exclude those who are symptomatic, and avoid the staff room.

[1of4]

A few people on here are calling for schools to be reopened. That it will be ok as young children are less likely to cotract the coronavirus, so primary schools will be safe places for children to congregate.

Anyone care to tell me how they are going to get to and from school. Any parent that as done the school run knows how many other adults there are in close proximity to each other during this period. Or will it become common to see a long of social distancing parents, pushing their offspring through the schoolgate every morning. As for how they are reunited in a safe manner at the end of the day, is another matter.

[maxjam]

Looks like we might find out what the potential exit strategy will be next Sunday;

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-pm-seeks-world-support-in-most-urgent-shared-endeavour-of-our-lifetimes-11982721

[sage]

On 03/05/2020 at 18:43, rammieib said:

Thanks Sage. I really do want my daughter to go back, even if it’s just for 6 weeks of lessons. Even though she’s only five we can really see a difference in her attitude since being off and we’re not able to give her the time she needs.

Maybe a little more research can be released about whether under 10’s do pass this virus on. I’m quoting the Swiss Health Officer here who has said they don’t but that’s been contradicted by the WHO with their standard ‘We don’t know’ line.

I understand your view point from a teacher as well and you would feel at risk. 

 

Some extra info on this. Just found out my cousin's 8 year old grandson was one of 72 kids in a primary school in Notts who got coronavirus after one kid returned from skiing in Italy. Her husband (52 I think) caught it and was very ill for 2 weeks but is now feeling much better.

It would seem some strains can be spread by kids. 

 

 

[rammieib]

1 hour ago, sage said:

Some extra info on this. Just found out my cousin's 8 year old grandson was one of 72 kids in a primary school in Notts who got coronavirus after one kid returned from skiing in Italy. Her husband (52 I think) caught it and was very ill for 2 weeks but is now feeling much better.

It would seem some strains can be spread by kids. 

 

 

Interesting - I’m amazed though this didn’t come out in the news more. Lots of media stories came out when just one child caught it from a school so if 72 kids had (I assume as well that’s not confirmed cases but more symptoms were seen) so if there were multiple cases I would have expected more media news.

Have you been able to read up on this report anywhere? Any links?

[sage]

5 minutes ago, rammieib said:

Interesting - I’m amazed though this didn’t come out in the news more. Lots of media stories came out when just one child caught it from a school so if 72 kids had (I assume as well that’s not confirmed cases but more symptoms were seen) so if there were multiple cases I would have expected more media news.

Have you been able to read up on this report anywhere? Any links?

No. I thought I would have heard something, not that I watch the news. Just passing on what my cousin told me, i'm not Reuters.  

[bigbadbob]

14 minutes ago, sage said:

No. I thought I would have heard something, not that I watch the news. Just passing on what my cousin told me, i'm not Reuters.  

Which school was it?