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sage

Exit strategy

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2 hours ago, richinspain said:

I would have thought that a reliable test for those that had had and recovered from the virus would be another factor. There are many saying that they have had similar symptoms without needing medical assistance. Knowing if they really have had it would be very useful.

I thought this as well, if you can show you have had the disease and are now considered immune you can effectively go back to work. A test / app could help this but it comes with challenges. If you are self-employed and you have the virus you can go back to work, if not you can't. Potentially some may then feel it's better to have had Covid to allow them then to go earn a living after. Effectively, strangely, we could end up in a place where we are favouring people who have been infected, indeed strangely driving people to get infected.

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I think nothing will change for at least the month of April and probably through May too.

One of the first 'relaxations' I think will be allowing another level of worker's children to go to school. Perhaps those who cannot work purely because their children are at home.

Though I don't think there will be much of a relaxation until the testing and ventilator situation looks better. As for a vaccine, I can't see one being widely available until next year and then vital workers and the vulnerable will rightly take priority.

From a football point of view, I can see football games starting agin in say September but behind closed doors will xmas.

     

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So I’m meant to be going to Disney land Paris in June. Chances of that?

or turkey in July?

Bright side is, if (when) they get cancelled, that’s a bunch of extra money in the pot to keep us going this year. 

2020 is just going to be ‘the year that wasn’t’. And everything we had planned for this year is going to be moved to next year I reckon. 

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1 hour ago, SchtivePesley said:

Herd immunity without a vaccine would have a catastrophic death toll. I'm sure I read that herd immunity for a human disease has never been achieved without a vaccine.

Obligatory 'not a doctor but i my unlearned opinion'...not at all necessary for it to be a catastrophic death toll. Herd immunity doesn't mean we are all immune and we can forget about it, it meas enough of us have got antibodies through either having had it and recovered, or being vaccinated, to prevent an epidemic. The illness will still be there, and will still spread, but it won't overwhelm us. That's routine with any viral infection that has a relatively small death rate.

The death toll will be managed by balancing the need to expose people against the requirement not to overwhelm the NHS.

From here, it looks like we executing that strategy pretty well, but it's too early to say really, Another 10 days, and we'll know.

If it doesn't work we're waiting for a vaccine. I'd guess 9-12 months of waiting with cycled restrictions/releases for a scaled up supply. Problem with that is, the virus is now present is such unimaginably vast numbers in the human population, and replicates so quickly, that it's bound to be evolving fast. It's like when you get a flu jab...they're only giving you a vaccination against the most likely flu virus(s) to be prevalent that year. There will be a whole new set of variants by the following year.

If we get a variant evolve which has a larger death rate, say, 10% instead of 2%...yeah, we'e ducked back to the stone age. 

 

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1 minute ago, TigerTedd said:

So I’m meant to be going to Disney land Paris in June. Chances of that?

or turkey in July?

Bright side is, if (when) they get cancelled, that’s a bunch of extra money in the pot to keep us going this year. 

2020 is just going to be ‘the year that wasn’t’. And everything we had planned for this year is going to be moved to next year I reckon. 

I'd say chances of going to Turkey in July are extremely low. Chances of going to Paris in June - miniscule.

We're due to fly to Florida on 30th May. Far to say we can put our passports away. 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

Bright side is, if (when) they get cancelled, that’s a bunch of extra money in the pot to keep us going this year. 

My parents were due to go to Lanzarote earlier this month but it was cancelled, they were offered their money back or a holiday later in the year.  If you get chance, take you're money, not only will it come in useful now but the travel company might collapse before you get to go on your holiday!

We are due to go on a self catering holiday in the UK in July but I've already resigned myself to 2020 being as you say, 'the year that wasn't'.  Ah well, there's more important stuff going on than enjoying a couple of weeks at the seaside.

Edited by maxjam

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I was supposed to be in Sri Lanka for the cricket and they wouldn't refund the flight money (my only outlay) but allowed me to rebook my flights as long as I was back in the country within a year of my original booking so moved it to last oct nearly nov. 

I reckon I am looking 50/50 at best.  

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55 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

So I’m meant to be going to Disney land Paris in June. Chances of that?

or turkey in July?

Bright side is, if (when) they get cancelled, that’s a bunch of extra money in the pot to keep us going this year. 

2020 is just going to be ‘the year that wasn’t’. And everything we had planned for this year is going to be moved to next year I reckon. 

dont think there is much of chance of turkey at christmas

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11 minutes ago, sage said:

I was supposed to be in Sri Lanka for the cricket and they wouldn't refund the flight money (my only outlay) but allowed me to rebook my flights as long as I was back in the country within a year of my original booking so moved it to last oct nearly nov. 

I reckon I am looking 50/50 at best.  

love ryanair, no refund just a credit for future fights which all appear to be double the prive pre CV19.  

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1 hour ago, BaaLocks said:

I thought this as well, if you can show you have had the disease and are now considered immune you can effectively go back to work. A test / app could help this but it comes with challenges. If you are self-employed and you have the virus you can go back to work, if not you can't. Potentially some may then feel it's better to have had Covid to allow them then to go earn a living after. Effectively, strangely, we could end up in a place where we are favouring people who have been infected, indeed strangely driving people to get infected.

has anybody with actual technical knowledge confirmed that catching it once gives immunity?

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35 minutes ago, Spanish said:

has anybody with actual technical knowledge confirmed that catching it once gives immunity?

The experts have said so. I’m taking their advice.

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3 hours ago, Needlesh said:

Obligatory 'not a doctor but i my unlearned opinion'...not at all necessary for it to be a catastrophic death toll. Herd immunity doesn't mean we are all immune and we can forget about it, it meas enough of us have got antibodies through either having had it and recovered, or being vaccinated, to prevent an epidemic. The illness will still be there, and will still spread, but it won't overwhelm us.

Correct - but herd immunity without a vaccine means that the only way to get immunity is to catch the virus and recover. It all depends on the number of people having had it to limit the spread to a level where the NHS can still cope. The figure talked about was 80% of the population. Even if you lower that to 50% of the population (so circa 35 million people) - a death rate of 1% means 350k dead. I'd count that as pretty catastrophic

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4 hours ago, Needlesh said:

Obligatory 'not a doctor but i my unlearned opinion'...not at all necessary for it to be a catastrophic death toll. Herd immunity doesn't mean we are all immune and we can forget about it, it meas enough of us have got antibodies through either having had it and recovered, or being vaccinated, to prevent an epidemic. The illness will still be there, and will still spread, but it won't overwhelm us. That's routine with any viral infection that has a relatively small death rate.

The death toll will be managed by balancing the need to expose people against the requirement not to overwhelm the NHS.

From here, it looks like we executing that strategy pretty well, but it's too early to say really, Another 10 days, and we'll know.

If it doesn't work we're waiting for a vaccine. I'd guess 9-12 months of waiting with cycled restrictions/releases for a scaled up supply. Problem with that is, the virus is now present is such unimaginably vast numbers in the human population, and replicates so quickly, that it's bound to be evolving fast. It's like when you get a flu jab...they're only giving you a vaccination against the most likely flu virus(s) to be prevalent that year. There will be a whole new set of variants by the following year.

If we get a variant evolve which has a larger death rate, say, 10% instead of 2%...yeah, we'e ducked back to the stone age. 

 

Herd Immunity is, as a concept, only relevant if you try to push it through at a time when you don't have the ability to manage those that fall sick. The truth is that we are all going to get this, either in the first wave, second or later. The only thing that will prevent it is either the development of a vaccine or, as happens, the virus strangely vanishes as quickly as it arrived (the case for all epidemics). The problem with what the government were proposing was that we all got sick now, before we have the infrastructure in place, to treat everyone. There's a reason they're turning the Excel centre and the NEC into a temporary hospital - coz they're going to need them, even with us being holed up like we are.

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4 hours ago, maxjam said:

My parents were due to go to Lanzarote earlier this month but it was cancelled, they were offered their money back or a holiday later in the year.  If you get chance, take you're money, not only will it come in useful now but the travel company might collapse before you get to go on your holiday!

We are due to go on a self catering holiday in the UK in July but I've already resigned myself to 2020 being as you say, 'the year that wasn't'.  Ah well, there's more important stuff going on than enjoying a couple of weeks at the seaside.

Don't start any scare stories.

If you've booked a package holiday then, unless booked through some obscure company, your holiday will probably be covered by ABTA so you'd get a refund even if the company went bust.

Slightly different if you've booked flights only (as we have with Virgin Atlantic) as these are not usually covered. However, if you've paid by credit card (as we have) you should be able to claim it back from them.

So, before rushing into the refund option (although we would/will as it won't be convenient to fly later in the year) 1) check to see if the holiday is covered by ABTA 2) check to see if you paid by credit card 3) check to see if company failure is covered by your insurance (unlikely).

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8 hours ago, maxjam said:

My parents were due to go to Lanzarote earlier this month but it was cancelled, they were offered their money back or a holiday later in the year.  If you get chance, take you're money, not only will it come in useful now but the travel company might collapse before you get to go on your holiday!

We are due to go on a self catering holiday in the UK in July but I've already resigned myself to 2020 being as you say, 'the year that wasn't'.  Ah well, there's more important stuff going on than enjoying a couple of weeks at the seaside.

Well the Disney holiday is booked directly with Disney, so hopefully they won’t fold. 

Ive for the remainder to pay in less than 2 weeks, and they’ve technically not cancelled it, so they’ll probably say we’ve got to pay that, or forfeit our deposit. Then they’ll go and cancel it a week later. 

thing is, I’m happy for then to keep my deposit for now, if it means they have to give us the same deal later, cos we were really pleased with the deal we got. If we get a full refund, we might not get the same deal again. Ideally, I’d like to just not pay the remainder, and then rebook on the same deal on a later date. 

im going to call them next week, anyway, and see what the score is. 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

Don't start any scare stories.

If you've booked a package holiday then, unless booked through some obscure company, your holiday will probably be covered by ABTA so you'd get a refund even if the company went bust.

Slightly different if you've booked flights only (as we have with Virgin Atlantic) as these are not usually covered. However, if you've paid by credit card (as we have) you should be able to claim it back from them.

So, before rushing into the refund option (although we would/will as it won't be convenient to fly later in the year) 1) check to see if the holiday is covered by ABTA 2) check to see if you paid by credit card 3) check to see if company failure is covered by your insurance (unlikely).

 

6 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

Well the Disney holiday is booked directly with Disney, so hopefully they won’t fold. 

Ive for the remainder to pay in less than 2 weeks, and they’ve technically not cancelled it, so they’ll probably say we’ve got to pay that, or forfeit our deposit. Then they’ll go and cancel it a week later. 

thing is, I’m happy for then to keep my deposit for now, if it means they have to give us the same deal later, cos we were really pleased with the deal we got. If we get a full refund, we might not get the same deal again. Ideally, I’d like to just not pay the remainder, and then rebook on the same deal on a later date. 

im going to call them next week, anyway, and see what the score is. 

 

A similar question was put to Martin Lewis on Radio 5 this morning starting approx 23 mins in;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08856wq

He basically said its down to your own morals and whether you can afford to lose the money - if you can't or if you need the cash now to help you through any hardship you should absolutely take the cash, if however you can afford to leave it in then do so as you will be playing your part in helping to keep the company afloat and keeping the staff in jobs (probably doesn't apply to Disney though as they are huge!)

Edited by maxjam

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18 minutes ago, maxjam said:

 

 

A similar question was put to Martin Lewis on Radio 5 this morning starting approx 23 mins in;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08856wq

He basically said its down to your own morals and whether you can afford to lose the money - if you can't or if you need the cash now to help you through any hardship you should absolutely take the cash, if however you can afford to leave it in then do so as you will be playing your part in helping to keep the company afloat and keeping the staff in jobs (probably doesn't apply to Disney though as they are huge!)

I would imagine that you will have to pay the balance by the due date otherwise you would forfeit your deposit but, no harm in speaking to them. 

In terms of the clip, he's not really talking about losing the money unless you agree to switching to a later date and then don't go. You just agree to go at a different time.

As far as I'm concerned: If you need the money and/or alternative dates don't suit then take the refund.

If you're not struggling for cash (and can therefore still use the money for the holiday) AND a new date suits then agree to new dates. As you say, Disney are not likely to go bust so your earlier concerns shouldn't apply.

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13 hours ago, SchtivePesley said:

Correct - but herd immunity without a vaccine means that the only way to get immunity is to catch the virus and recover. It all depends on the number of people having had it to limit the spread to a level where the NHS can still cope. The figure talked about was 80% of the population. Even if you lower that to 50% of the population (so circa 35 million people) - a death rate of 1% means 350k dead. I'd count that as pretty catastrophic

Depends on who the 80% are. If we isolate the oldest, and expose the young (which is what I believe they were doing keeping the schools open) that death rate drops off very dramatically. They're still talking 20000 as achievable. What a bloody depressing stat that is though.

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20 hours ago, maxjam said:

My parents were due to go to Lanzarote earlier this month but it was cancelled, they were offered their money back or a holiday later in the year.  If you get chance, take you're money, not only will it come in useful now but the travel company might collapse before you get to go on your holiday!

We are due to go on a self catering holiday in the UK in July but I've already resigned myself to 2020 being as you say, 'the year that wasn't'.  Ah well, there's more important stuff going on than enjoying a couple of weeks at the seaside.

 

15 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

Don't start any scare stories.

If you've booked a package holiday then, unless booked through some obscure company, your holiday will probably be covered by ABTA so you'd get a refund even if the company went bust.

Slightly different if you've booked flights only (as we have with Virgin Atlantic) as these are not usually covered. However, if you've paid by credit card (as we have) you should be able to claim it back from them.

So, before rushing into the refund option (although we would/will as it won't be convenient to fly later in the year) 1) check to see if the holiday is covered by ABTA 2) check to see if you paid by credit card 3) check to see if company failure is covered by your insurance (unlikely).

We have a Kuoni holiday booked for May and were advised new legislation has been introduced meaning those having booked a package holiday can be offered a credit note. They have of course cancelled our holiday and given us a credit note which is the value of the holiday we booked before any discounts plus 10% so we are fairly happy with that as we still want to go.

I did read somewhere that this was true but can't seem to find it right now. We decided to leave our money in and if the cost of holidays rockets when we come to rebook I will argue the toss with them then if i want my money back.

We had a few hotels booked in the UK on non refundable deals and the Premier Inn gave us a full refund without asking, and another has allowed us to move it to next year for no extra cost so I am happy with that too. Parking wise at the airport we booked on a non refundable and they have given us a credit note for the full value so once again thats fine by us.

We do have some other holidays booked, one for the end of the summer in france which has been booked independently, that will be interesting to see, we have a balance to pay come July so will have to review the situation then. 

I personally am looking at it that if we decide not to go or can't and we lose the deposit then so be it, we did a transfer so can't claim off credit cards although we may be able to on insurance but by the time excesses are paid it might not be worth it. In the grand scheme of things if we end up just losing a couple of hundred pounds through this then its not the end of the world.

I do understand not everyone is in a position financially to take this approach. My view is by leaving the money with Kuoni which is the maldives and for us a lot of money then it may help secure jobs, the 36 pence interest i will get by getting it back now isnt going to help me out a lot. But as i say I wouldn't blame someone for getting it all back especially with a lot of people being out of work right now and bringing in less money.

 

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