Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Thought I would put this in a different thread so it doesn't get lost amongst the other virus talk. 

How, when the numbers start improving, hopefully in weeks rather than months will we start the process of getting back to normal. How will it work? What will be the first lifting of restrictions? which will be the last?

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

If the current measures have been implemented as a hierarchy then isn't it logical that the measures get removed in the reverse order 

Not necessarily and will the roll back be more gradual than the shutdown?

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, sage said:

How, when the numbers start improving, hopefully in weeks rather than months will we start the process of getting back to normal. How will it work? 

Been wondering about this myself as well. 

Given that its around the world now and how apparently easy it is to be passed between people, is there any hope of stopping 2nd or 3rd outbreaks? Do we go into lockdown again or limit the old and those with pre existing conditions from ever coming out again.  Or are we hoping for a vaccine in the near future?  Glad I'm not making the decisions tbh!

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, maxjam said:

Been wondering about this myself as well. 

Given that its around the world now and how apparently easy it is to be passed between people, is there any hope of stopping 2nd or 3rd outbreaks? Do we go into lockdown again or limit the old and those with pre existing conditions from ever coming out again.  Or are we hoping for a vaccine in the near future?  Glad I'm not making the decisions tbh!

There seems little hope of a vaccine in the short term (next 9-15) months, unless most of us are happy to be guinea pigs.  I think we need to watch closely what happens in Italy and Spain over the coming weeks to see what the benefits of lockdown have been.  Looking further forward than that to me seems of little value currently.

Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Been wondering about this myself as well. 

Given that its around the world now and how apparently easy it is to be passed between people, is there any hope of stopping 2nd or 3rd outbreaks? Do we go into lockdown again or limit the old and those with pre existing conditions from ever coming out again.  Or are we hoping for a vaccine in the near future?  Glad I'm not making the decisions tbh!

My two cents. More people could potentially die from the hit to the economy. It's daft to keep everyone locked up, so to speak, when they will soon have even more data on who is at risk and what services they will require. A gradual reversal of everything that has occurred. But those that are high risk will have to remain isolated for months. But the government, councils and charities will have the infrastructure in place to support them through that prolonged period. The plan for the rest of us will be to get infected. However there will be a tipping point week when it comes to the modelling and if it shows we are about to breach a threshold in which the government can not provide the resources (ventilators, beds. etc) then we will go into another lock-down such as this again. This will be repeated multiple times. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, i-Ram said:

There seems little hope of a vaccine in the short term (next 9-15) months, unless most of us are happy to be guinea pigs.  I think we need to watch closely what happens in Italy and Spain over the coming weeks to see what the benefits of lockdown have been.  Looking further forward than that to me seems of little value currently.

Human trials are already being conducted. The CMO has said before the end of the year. Which is less than 9 months. A more specific time frame has not been given, but they will have a very good idea considering they will follow the same approach but remove and fast track certain steps. Any so called Dr still saying 18 months to 2 years should be roundly ignored, considering how 6-12 months of the process has already occurred. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

Human trials are already being conducted. The CMO has said before the end of the year. Which is less than 9 months. A more specific time frame has not been given, but they will have a very good idea considering they will follow the same approach but remove and fast track certain steps. Any so called Dr still saying 18 months to 2 years should be roundly ignored, considering how 6-12 months of the process has already occurred. 

Hope you are right, but:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=1&ved=2ahUKEwiiwqn21MDoAhWdSBUIHeiiAaYQqOcBMAB6BAgIEAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2020%2Fmar%2F29%2Fcoronavirus-vaccine-when-will-it-be-ready&usg=AOvVaw36AqaHX6gUsg7EnkStA0eE

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=14&ved=2ahUKEwiD1MOn1sDoAhWSoFwKHVwRD0kQFjANegQIBhAL&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2020%2Fmar%2F27%2Finside-the-race-to-develop-a-coronavirus-vaccine-covid-19&usg=AOvVaw0Epul2Uk82g2MCeayy0A2p

I accept that my reference points may be iffy given both articles come from the Grauniad.

Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

Human trials are already being conducted. The CMO has said before the end of the year. Which is less than 9 months. A more specific time frame has not been given, but they will have a very good idea considering they will follow the same approach but remove and fast track certain steps. Any so called Dr still saying 18 months to 2 years should be roundly ignored, considering how 6-12 months of the process has already occurred. 

I'd feel much more reassured if you could post just what your experience and qualifications lead you to such a conclusion.

Link to post
Share on other sites

In 2 or 3 weeks, everyone who has been able to follow the distancing advice should know they haven't got it.  It would be unlucky to catch it if the only time you see people is a couple of metres away from each other.

Obviously, there is the people who haven't been able to keep their distance, especially nhs workers and other vital services.  These people should be continually tested and obviously quarantined asap if positive.  How these people can be isolated away from the masses is probably key to when people can start returning to work/sort of normal life.

Flights/boats would still be massively reduced and we should test everyone who arrives into the UK. I think we nationally we could be back close to normal in under 12 weeks, but foreign travel and trips much longer, perhaps when we know there is a vaccine.

Start isolating football teams now so we can get ready for non-stop behind closed doors matches. Games on tv everyday throughout May and June.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The figure that is being quoted in Germany is that the time taken for cases to double should be no less than 10 days in order to ensure that the health system is not overwhelmed. They are currently doubling very five days. Another figure that is being quoted is that 60 % of the population need to have been infected for herd immunity to be established.

I did a few simple sums on the back of an envelope and came up with a date of 21 July for when those conditions might be met, but nobody should take that remotely seriously. It will take a few weeks or months yet though.

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, reverendo de duivel said:

I'd feel much more reassured if you could post just what your experience and qualifications lead you to such a conclusion.

Don't be a smart arse. The media keeps asking the opinions of people who are not factoring in adjustments to protocol. Therefore they're citing the industry standard. Multiple organisations are already at stages which typically wouldn't occur until around the end of this year. 

Edited by Uptherams
Link to post
Share on other sites

China/Wuhan is the only reference point really, their "back to normal" process is starting from a much stricter base for the lockdown which started 2 months ago. Government here seem to say that it may be over a long period 6 month and we may go in and out of lockdown. I guess what will decide how and how long will depend on many factors and especially testing as it stands we don't really know situation out there.

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I expect a gradual relaxation of the rules , but I'll tell you one thing now, no way am I going into a stadium sitting crammed up against an unknown person for 2 hours until there is a proven vaccine and I have had it.

They already think the Champions league match MAY have been the trigger in part for the disaster areas of Spain and Italy. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s alright being in lockdown for however many weeks in the UK.

But all it takes is for someone (infected) to get off a plane or use the channel tunnel and we are back to square one again. Why haven’t we stopped incoming travel?! 
 

Herd Immunity will be the next plan 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Papahet said:

Herd Immunity will be the next plan 

Herd immunity without a vaccine would have a catastrophic death toll. I'm sure I read that herd immunity for a human disease has never been achieved without a vaccine.

Not to go all dumb anti-vaxxer (because those guys are idiots) but I've read enough sci-fi to know that we have to be careful with any vaccine that might be rolled out globally. Developing one in a hurry because of the magnitude of the threat has the opportunity to cause a much bigger problem if we get it even slightly wrong.

I think that short term there is much more mileage in developing simple test kits and tracking who has it/is carrying it/has recovered from it if we want to start thinking about returning to normal

 

 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Incidentally - we were supposed to be going to Primavera Sound in Barcelona at the start of June. That's now unsurprisingly been cancelled and moved to the last weekend of August.

I'd like to think that they have some sort of scientific guidance for that move, because right now I can't see how suddenly flying tens of thousands of people in/out of Spain for a weekend mass gathering is a good idea. I was expecting it would just be postponed until next year

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account.

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.