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The Chase for a play-off places


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It's nice to dream...but not a cat in hells chance! I've checked back to our Mac1 season and the numbers are not in our favour even disregarding our very difficult looking run-in... Here are the points needed since then to finish 6th...2014.Brighton 72....2015.Ipswich 78....2016.Sheff We'd.74...2017.Fulham 80....2018.Derby 75....2019.Derby 74...That averages out to 75.5 points to finish 6th.Fulham and Ipswich needed 80 and 78 points to finish 6th! In 2015 we ammased 77 points and only managed 8th! Our absolute maximum this season is 78 points and that would take eleven wins on the bounce.Its not happening boys and girls!

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Just now, Patrick Rams said:

It's nice to dream...but not a cat in hells chance! I've checked back to our Mac1 season and the numbers are not in our favour even disregarding our very difficult looking run-in... Here are the points needed since then to finish 6th...2014.Brighton 72....2015.Ipswich 78....2016.Sheff We'd.74...2017.Fulham 80....2018.Derby 75....2019.Derby 74...That averages out to 75.5 points to finish 6th.Fulham and Ipswich needed 80 and 78 points to finish 6th! In 2015 we ammased 77 points and only managed 8th! Our absolute maximum this season is 78 points and that would take eleven wins on the bounce.Its not happening boys and girls!

This is a much weaker league this year.

Cheer up.

Be optimistic

What happens happens.

Cheers

 

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36 minutes ago, Patrick Rams said:

If we were 7th and 5 points behind Preston in 6th we'd only have to catch one team..PNE...but we're not .. we're 12th and have to catch 6 teams.. which is I think you'll agree  more difficult....do you understand now?

I do get it, yes, thank you.

The point I was trying to make was that if we are 5 points adrift we are 5 points adrift

It does not make it seem closer it makes it seem like 5 points to me.

Unless you are suggesting the crafty little 5 is trying to do an impression of a 4 maybe ?

But honestly I am just joshing, I do get it.

But I think being 7th does make it seem closer than being 12th even if in both scenarios are 5 points, not the other way round. If we get 21 more points we will be close regardless of how many are between us and 6th now - I think ??

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20 minutes ago, Patrick Rams said:

It's nice to dream...but not a cat in hells chance! I've checked back to our Mac1 season and the numbers are not in our favour even disregarding our very difficult looking run-in... Here are the points needed since then to finish 6th...2014.Brighton 72....2015.Ipswich 78....2016.Sheff We'd.74...2017.Fulham 80....2018.Derby 75....2019.Derby 74...That averages out to 75.5 points to finish 6th.Fulham and Ipswich needed 80 and 78 points to finish 6th! In 2015 we ammased 77 points and only managed 8th! Our absolute maximum this season is 78 points and that would take eleven wins on the bounce.Its not happening boys and girls!

splitting hairs I know - but out of interest what did the 7th place teams get - is it not more accurate to say you need to exceed 7th place rather than tie with 6th ?

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1 hour ago, old ilkestonian said:

Sorry if this has been covered elsewhere but has anyone seen the Derby Telegraph's score predictor for the rest of the season? (link below) 

I'm not the best at predicting the outcome of games but nevertheless I've had a go at predicting this unpredictable league and, having seriously tried to be unbiased about everyone's remaining games, I got us finishing 7th with a draw at Birmingham but, if I'd have put us down for a win instead, we'd have finished 6th - it's going to be an interesting end to the season and especially if we win against Millwall and Reading! 

https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/Derby-county-play-off-predictor-3930664

I had us finishing 5th, 6 points clear of 7th.

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1 hour ago, jkew31 said:

Just done my predictions and this is what I have the table at before the final day:image.png.094a3344cbb447b3175b783e0553acb8.png

Would be madness, 9 teams could get in or out of the play offs 😵 This is what I have it looking like at the end of the season:

image.png.9cde25fbe0f34279a7ec2a89f0816829.png

Ahhhh ffs, I don't think I can go through that again 

I need to give myself a short sharp rap about the head, and sort out my priorities!

I got as much joy out of seeing L**ds dropping to 3rd as I did seeing us rising to 6th!  :-)

 

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10 hours ago, deano180 said:

Although it feels like we are close(ish) again we are just one defeat or even a draw away from being impossible again. It's just highly improbable but not impossible and allows the season to continue a little longer.

We have to beat Millwall IMO or it's over.

That's going to be tough, considering our recent abysmal performances in London. 

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On 09/03/2020 at 10:28, DarkFruitsRam7 said:

Half a point! It’s effectively worth an extra half a point! Why does everyone always say it’s worth a full point? In that case, Forest could finish a point behind 6th but still compete in the Play Offs.

Team are not able to be awarded 1/2 a point. So therefore if a lower team does not have a better goal difference the only way they can rise above is by winning 1 extra point more,

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12 hours ago, jkew31 said:

Just done my predictions and this is what I have the table at before the final day:image.png.094a3344cbb447b3175b783e0553acb8.png

Would be madness, 9 teams could get in or out of the play offs 😵 This is what I have it looking like at the end of the season:

image.png.9cde25fbe0f34279a7ec2a89f0816829.png

Ahhhh ffs, I don't think I can go through that again 

Don't think I could stand it.

All those plastic cockneys suddenly pretending to be Brentford fans in the play off final. 

They'd deserve the 4-0 thrashing we'd give them. 🐏

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I had Leeds winning the league, WBA going up in second. Fulham, Brentford, Millwall & Forest in the play-offs. We finish 10th with 66 points, which gives us 15 points from our last nine games and hopefully a plus goal difference around +5 goals. I'd assume we would be 15+ clear of the relegation zone at that point, accounting for any point deduction. 

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6 hours ago, TommyPowell said:

Team are not able to be awarded 1/2 a point. So therefore if a lower team does not have a better goal difference the only way they can rise above is by winning 1 extra point more,

We're not talking literally though are we? Of course there aren't half points awarded, but it's closer to the truth than saying a good GD is worth an extra point.

There's no 'extra point' awarded for having the best goal difference, otherwise it would allow a team one point behind to catch up the team ahead simply because of a better goal difference. The only way of describing a vastly superior goal difference is by giving it a value of anything between 0 and 1 points, as that wouldn't allow a team to catch a team who's ahead of them, but it would differentiate them if they were level.

It's a pointless discussion, but I just hate it when people say that their excellent goal difference 'basically gives us an extra point' because it simply isn't true. 

@Carl Sagan, please tell me I'm on the right lines.

Edited by DarkFruitsRam7
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1 hour ago, DarkFruitsRam7 said:

We're not talking literally though are we? Of course there aren't half points awarded, but it's closer to the truth than saying a good GD is worth an extra point.

There's no 'extra point' awarded for having the best goal difference, otherwise it would allow a team one point behind to catch up the team ahead simply because of a better goal difference. The only way of describing a vastly superior goal difference is by giving it a value of anything between 0 and 1 points, as that wouldn't allow a team to catch a team who's ahead of them, but it would differentiate them if they were level.

It's a pointless discussion, but I just hate it when people say that their excellent goal difference 'basically gives us an extra point' because it simply isn't true. 

@Carl Sagan, please tell me I'm on the right lines.

I ain't no Carl, but anyway... It's definitely not a pointless discussion, it should have its own thread, "Harry Potter and the meaning and existential crisis of the goal difference in the Sky Bet Championship"! 

Basically, in a bigger scale, you're all agreeing but just nitpicking like good ol' pub philosophists. Just keep on going, focus on subjectivity and don't lose this one! 

Edited by Dimmu
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3 hours ago, DarkFruitsRam7 said:

We're not talking literally though are we? Of course there aren't half points awarded, but it's closer to the truth than saying a good GD is worth an extra point.

There's no 'extra point' awarded for having the best goal difference, otherwise it would allow a team one point behind to catch up the team ahead simply because of a better goal difference. The only way of describing a vastly superior goal difference is by giving it a value of anything between 0 and 1 points, as that wouldn't allow a team to catch a team who's ahead of them, but it would differentiate them if they were level.

It's a pointless discussion, but I just hate it when people say that their excellent goal difference 'basically gives us an extra point' because it simply isn't true. 

@Carl Sagan, please tell me I'm on the right lines.

You haven't been drinking too much dark fruits (well I'm sure you have but that's not the issue here). 

It's manifestly wrong to say that having a better goal difference than other teams is worth an extra point, since you could be in a situation such as:

6 Preston 69 pts +7

7 Derby 68 pts +14

And in this case Preston make the playoffs. 

Having the better goal difference is worth anything between 0 and 1 points so it's simplest and makes most sense to say a GD better than any of the other teams is worth an extra half point. 

You explained it well enough (and forced me to read the whole thread you git) so my explanation won't persuade anyone you were right, but if it's any consolation you are right on this. 

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On 10/03/2020 at 04:42, jono said:

Don’t panic @Squid .... You can both send all your socks round to my house. The dog eats socks .. loves them, clean, smelly, nicked from drawers. I have a special box in the corner of the bedroom with all the odd ones. Every so often I try and put pairs back together .. it’s either that, go sockless or wait for Christmas to come round. If we go up I will donate this box to a charity of your choice (or you can eat them too, the choice is yours ) 

Ha ha I have a dog that does that too, he actually doesn’t eat them or even make holes in them, he just steals them and hides them In weird places. I gave up wearing “pairs” of socks years ago, I’m just happy when I get them the same thickness nowadays...let yourself go, wear odd socks; it’s so liberating. 

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1 hour ago, MuespachRam said:

Ha ha I have a dog that does that too, he actually doesn’t eat them or even make holes in them, he just steals them and hides them In weird places. I gave up wearing “pairs” of socks years ago, I’m just happy when I get them the same thickness nowadays...let yourself go, wear odd socks; it’s so liberating. 

To be fair on her she only actually ate them (twice) when she was a medium sized puppy .. gave a new meaning to what a spiraller is 🤣

now it’s just thievery and the odd hole. 

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7 hours ago, DarkFruitsRam7 said:

We're not talking literally though are we? Of course there aren't half points awarded, but it's closer to the truth than saying a good GD is worth an extra point.

There's no 'extra point' awarded for having the best goal difference, otherwise it would allow a team one point behind to catch up the team ahead simply because of a better goal difference. The only way of describing a vastly superior goal difference is by giving it a value of anything between 0 and 1 points, as that wouldn't allow a team to catch a team who's ahead of them, but it would differentiate them if they were level.

It's a pointless discussion, but I just hate it when people say that their excellent goal difference 'basically gives us an extra point' because it simply isn't true. 

@Carl Sagan, please tell me I'm on the right lines.

it is if the team below you needs to gain 4 points to over take your league position.For example with 2 games left in the season forest are 3 points behind Derby but an inferior goal difference,to over take the Rams they would have to get 4 points to have any chance of over taking us.so effectively our superior goal difference is worth an extra point.If however thet had the superior goal difference they would only need to get the same results as Derbt to finish ahead of them. God this is like explaining the offside rule to a non football fan

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