Coronavirus

[Archied]

9 minutes ago, Norman said:

Let's get pissed then

 

*I'm only joking before someone posts a really long message about how we need to keep the r rate down etc. 

Struth cobber 

[G STAR RAM]

1 hour ago, GboroRam said:

Surely opening up in a non-phased way will allow the R number to rise steeply and the number of infections to rise massively in no time?

With the heavy use of lockdown in this country, we still saw the R number rise to probably above 3 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55105285).

If we reopen restaurants and pubs, allow the hospitality industry to reopen fully, schools to go back to normal - what will the reproduction rate look like? We were seeing a doubling of cases around every 7 days at one point. Without the controls we're using now, I think it'll be much less than that, considering we've got a faster spreading strain in the wild now.

Let's say it doubles every 3 days, and we start with 100 cases in the UK. Within 2 months, everyone in the country is infected.

What percentage do we need to become ill for that to seriously impact the ability to treat people?

Will having so many cases of the virus encourage more mutations, more strains that don't respond to the vaccine and potentially worse symptoms?

But the vaccine stops the vulnerable people from getting so ill that they are hospitalised. 

The vulnerable make up over 75% of people hospitalised. 

Has the narrative changed from save the NHS to completely stop anyone from getting the virus because if it did then I must have missed that.

[dabber]

1 hour ago, Norman said:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) death rate in Italy as of February 3, 2021, by age group

0-9 years 0%

10-19 years 0%

20-29 years 0%

30-39 years 0.1%

40-49 years 0.2%

50-59 years 0.6%

60-69 years 2.9%

70-79 years 9.9%

80-89 years 19.9%

90 years and older 25.8%

I used Italy as the figures go right up to last week. 

The above numbers will fall dramatically when you take out underlying health conditions. After the over 50's are done, I would start opening up in a staggered manner. Once those under 50 who are considered 'shielders' are vaccinated, I would open up fully. 

Should it add up to 100%?

[Norman]

5 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

But the vaccine stops the vulnerable people from getting so ill that they are hospitalised. 

The vulnerable make up over 75% of people hospitalised. 

Has the narrative changed from save the NHS to completely stop anyone from getting the virus because if it did then I must have missed that.

1 in 6 catch it in hospital when being treated for other illnesses too due to the amount of Covid interactions and beds being used currently. 

You reduce the hospitalisations, then you stop a huge percentage of transmissions automatically. 

[Norman]

2 minutes ago, dabber said:

Should it add up to 100%?

You'd ducking hope not

[Chester40]

Had my vaccination today. 

Very organised and efficient, I was impressed. Government have got a lot of things wrong but can't argue we have mobilised the vaccination programme in a huge way. 

[dabber]

3 minutes ago, Norman said:

You'd ducking hope not

Ah yes, sorry, thanks, read it wrong, thought it was percentage of all COVID deaths in that age group.

[G STAR RAM]

7 minutes ago, dabber said:

Should it add up to 100%?

I think it is percentage of population as opposed to percentage of deaths.

[jono]

20 hours ago, alexxxxx said:

AZ vaccine 10% effective against South African variant. 

 

I can’t comment scientifically .. only on what is in that post. There appear to be missing reference points I.e the first part with SA data refers to .351 and the UK data refers to D614G. The sample sizes on the AZ data seem small. Add in that at present we seem to have identified 140 odd cases of the SA variant .. but is that 351 or D615 ?
. Also missing is how different the severity of typical SA infection is relative to others. For any of us to comment on this in any depth wouldn’t be rational without a virologist, a doctor and a statistician’s perspective to draw a half decent conclusion 

Get your jab .. the more of us get the jab the greater the chance that this thing shrivels away to the point where we can treat, mangage and get back to normal lives. 

[oldtimeram]

I got my AZ vaccine on Sat 

[Gone]

2 hours ago, Stive Pesley said:

What it doesn't stop though is the virus continuing to circulate amongst the under 50s and those who have refused the vaccine. A lot of whom are the ones who have argued throughout for their right to personal freedom because it is unlikely to affect them. I hope for their sake that if and when they do catch it it proves to only be the "mild illness" they claimed it would be

I’ll take my chances (but I’ll have the vaccine as soon as I can however), the counter argument against not taking my chances has always been but it’ll effect the vulnerable and elderly. Well they’ve been or will have been protected so why can’t the under 50s take their own risks? I’m yet to see a compelling argument against opening up fully once the vulnerable & elderly have been protected. 

[cstand]

Don’t believe anything on this forum G Star is 100% correct 

[maxjam]

Vaccine roll out (and take up) has been hugely impressive - over 12m so far and still on target to hit the mid-Feb target of vaccinating the top 4 vulnerable groups.

In further good news he adds there is 'increasing evidence' that vaccines protect you and 'all those around you' ? 

[G STAR RAM]

9 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

I’ll take my chances (but I’ll have the vaccine as soon as I can however), the counter argument against not taking my chances has always been but it’ll effect the vulnerable and elderly. Well they’ve been or will have been protected so why can’t the under 50s take their own risks? I’m yet to see a compelling argument against opening up fully once the vulnerable & elderly have been protected. 

Stay At Home - Save Money - Keep The R Below 1

[Norman]

Tell you what I'm a fan of. An extra few weeks of school in the summer. 

Virus doesn't do well in hotter temperatures, you can have windows open for ventilation and kids can catch up with missed education. 

Depends on how tired teachers are I suppose.....

[G STAR RAM]

1 minute ago, Norman said:

Tell you what I'm a fan of. An extra few weeks of school in the summer. 

Virus doesn't do well in hotter temperatures, you can have windows open for ventilation and kids can catch up with missed education. 

Depends on how tired teachers are I suppose.....

No brainer isnt it?

Week less at Easter, week less at Xmas, cut short the summer break.

[BIllyD]

19 minutes ago, Norman said:

Tell you what I'm a fan of. An extra few weeks of school in the summer. 

Virus doesn't do well in hotter temperatures, you can have windows open for ventilation and kids can catch up with missed education. 

Depends on how tired teachers are I suppose.....

Think they already discussing it, offer to compensate them for it and I'm sure there will be takers.

[Albert]

9 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

@Albert @BIllyD @Bob The Badger @Stive Pesley

NHS England bed occupancy rates:-

2018/19 Q1 87.8%

2018/19 Q2 87.1%

2018/19 Q3 88.0%

2018/19 Q4 89.1%

2019/20 Q1 88.2%

2019/20 Q2 88.0%

2019/20 Q3 89.4%

2019/20 Q4 86.3%

2020/21 Q1 64.3%

2020/21 Q2 77.0%

...so this data, which was discussed to death on here several months back (with the Q1 data) is all the data you're working with? Bed occupancy isn't a strong measure of what you're claiming at all, for the reasons that I, and others, discussed with you. This is also an extremely coarse measure, though that's a different point. 

Honestly, if this is the only data you're providing, then the previous point about you having no reason for your claim has been strengthened by your post here. 

[G STAR RAM]

21 minutes ago, Albert said:

...so this data, which was discussed to death on here several months back (with the Q1 data) is all the data you're working with? Bed occupancy isn't a strong measure of what you're claiming at all, for the reasons that I, and others, discussed with you. This is also an extremely coarse measure, though that's a different point. 

Honestly, if this is the only data you're providing, then the previous point about you having no reason for your claim has been strengthened by your post here. 

Yeah its literally the only thing I have looked at in the last 11 months. 

I mean of course bed occupancy is an awful measure of what pressure the NHS is under, Im surprised they even bother measuring it anymore. 

And you do realise that just because you have discussed something already, and given your OPINION on it, it doesnt mean that everyone has to automatically agree with your OPINION?

[Comrade 86]

8 hours ago, TexasRam said:

I think there’s a fair few on here who’d vote for that.........

Like whom exactly. Come on, let's hear it!