Coronavirus

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, BIllyD said:

I was in ICU for 2 days last year, one thing I remember is that nearly every bed was full. Thing with mine, it the result of a planned op, they knew I was coming out after 2 days, same with a lot of the other people in there, who I saw on step down during my period that followed.

With COVID admission you don't get the luxury of knowing when people will come out, unfortunately it seems some of these will be the result of them passing away rather than getting better. That's why to me, stats mean nothing, it's a completely different scenario, for the past 3 years they plan and manage the majority of the beds in ICU, now they are trying to keep the numbers down so they have enough beds. 
 

It doesn't seem rocket science to me, where the concerns are coming from.

We have these stories about the NHS being overwhelmed every winter.

Maybe its a case of the boy who cried wolf.

I understand the concerns but the stats never seem to correlate with the official narrative and this overwhelming is always just round the corner.

With proper transparency from the NHS and accurate reporting from the Government people may take these concerns a little more seriously?

[Eddie]

26 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Sorry should have said calculation.

It appears that the most populous country in the world, where the virus arose, are not reporting asymptomatic cases, I'd suggest that could make a huge difference to the numbers.

Indeed.

My interpretation of the results has always been 'If anyone gets it bad enough to notice, there is a 3% chance overall that they will die". Obviously this can vary with respect to where the person lies on the 'vulnerability scale'. In my case, it is probably much higher than 3%.

Taking the above statement alone, and in context of an unknown number or percentage of people being truly asymptomatic, my continuing philosophy will be "Assume that everyone else has the virus".

I cannot, for the life of me, understand why people cannot actually understand (or pretend that they do not understand - or, even worse, deliberately misinterpret) those two very simple and related statements and take them at face value.

[BIllyD]

11 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

We have these stories about the NHS being overwhelmed every winter.

Maybe its a case of the boy who cried wolf.

I understand the concerns but the stats never seem to correlate with the official narrative and this overwhelming is always just round the corner.

With proper transparency from the NHS and accurate reporting from the Government people may take these concerns a little more seriously?

Would they ? Serious question, or would they doubt the figures ?
 

You posted a graph earlier that has appeared on my Facebook a couple of times, this has been used with commentary around how the government has been lying to us, lockdowns have only been brought in to control us etc....The graph had no source as I can see, doesn't really say what we are looking at and is several days old, yet has been taken as gospel.

People see what they want to. 
 

I think the total number of ICU beds was around 4k, think that is at least double now, did your graph take this into account ? Do you know what the data was based on ? 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, jimmyp said:

Not very much elective surgery takes place on a Sunday. Wonder what the graph would look like if they had compared a three year average to a weekday rather than just picking  the quietest day of the week. 

If my interpretation is correct, they are the figures for the week ending 20 December 2020, and they are the last figures available.

Just like the ONS figures they appear to usually be about a week behind. 

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, BIllyD said:

Would they ? Serious question, or would they doubt the figures ?
 

You posted a graph earlier that has appeared on my Facebook a couple of times, this has been used with commentary around how the government has been lying to us, lockdowns have only been brought in to control us etc....The graph had no source as I can see, doesn't really say what we are looking at and is several days old, yet has been taken as gospel.

People see what they want to. 
 

I think the total number of ICU beds was around 4k, think that is at least double now, did your graph take this into account ? Do you know what the data was based on ? 

Sorry, I did see your reply earlier and did not get round to replying.

The source is stated underneath the graph

See above for the reason why it is old data.

Much more detailed information can be found here:-

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/uec-sitrep/urgent-and-emergency-care-daily-situation-reports-2020-21/

 

[Guest]

4 hours ago, Spanish said:

Seems at odds with all the stories but this is restricted to type 1 A&E.  In the summer there were articles stating that A&E was quieter than normal due to a lack of sporting injuries as a result of lockdowns.  Maybe the CV19 are admitted via a different entry point?

Fair point and there is a note which states:-

Hospital capacity has had to be organised in new ways as a result of the pandemic to treat Covid and non-Covid patients separately and safely in meeting the enhanced Infection Prevention Control measures. This results in beds and staff being deployed differently from in previous years in both emergency and elective settings within the hospital. As a result caution should be exercised in comparing overall occupancy rates between this year and previous years. In general hospitals will experience capacity pressures at lower overall occupancy rates than would have previously been the case. 

[BIllyD]

7 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Sorry, I did see your reply earlier and did not get round to replying.

The source is stated underneath the graph

See above for the reason why it is old data.

Much more detailed information can be found here:-

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/uec-sitrep/urgent-and-emergency-care-daily-situation-reports-2020-21/

 

Thanks. I'm not going to profess to understand these figures but reading the headlines, it seems to call out that the figures aren't comparable based on COVID ?

Also as I alluded to earlier, if using percentages, are the number of beds 3 times as many this year, which in itself would be a big worry if so ?

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, BIllyD said:

Thanks. I'm not going to profess to understand these figures but reading the headlines, it seems to call out that the figures aren't comparable based on COVID ?

Also as I alluded to earlier, if using percentages, are the number of beds 3 times as many this year, which in itself would be a big worry if so ?

Nor should they be comparable, we would expect things to be much worse surely?

My reading of it was there are 4386 in 2020 compared to 3666 in 2019, happy to be corrected if my interpretation is wrong.

[BIllyD]

15 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Nor should they be comparable, we would expect things to be much worse surely?

My reading of it was there are 4386 in 2020 compared to 3666 in 2019, happy to be corrected if my interpretation is wrong.

I'm sure it's right, looking at the figures though, do they include COVID or are these reported separately ? Maybe a daft question.

Also if we are at 60-80% capacity with operations cancelled, 800-1200 spare beds over the whole country with a pandemic that is reporting upwards figures would be a worry to me ? Once again I may be reading these figures wrong, but these figures are obviously manageable without COVID, with it though, are they ?

[maxjam]

Click on the tweet below (the first of nine) to see media NHS headlines dating back to 2013...

The 9th tweet in the thread shows monthly emergency hospital admissions in England since June 2015.

 

 

[Gone]

Tier 4 then for Derby and Notts. The  waste of time lockdowns continue 

[Eddie]

15 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

Tier 4 then for Derby and Notts. The  waste of time lockdowns continue 

Of course, in another, equally valid reality, this is the only thing that is stopping the daily counts going up to in excess of 100,000 a day, and the death toll in 3 weeks time being over 1,000 a day.

 

[Gone]

16 minutes ago, Eddie said:

Of course, in another, equally valid reality, this is the only thing that is stopping the daily counts going up to in excess of 100,000 a day, and the death toll in 3 weeks time being over 1,000 a day.

 

Of course it would. Always in 3 weeks time, and it wouldn’t be 1000, it’s be 40,000 and the world will end. Yawn 

[Guest]

19 minutes ago, Eddie said:

Of course, in another, equally valid reality, this is the only thing that is stopping the daily counts going up to in excess of 100,000 a day, and the death toll in 3 weeks time being over 1,000 a day.

 

Thats only 1%, shouldn't that be 3,000 a day using your calculation?

[RamNut]

I don’t know what the answer is but the age groups most affected seem to be 20-60 and women are more affected than men.

Therefore I do wonder whether people are actually complying with whatever rules are set.

When I was agonising whether to visit my mother 2 days before xmas, it subsequently turned that the support bubble family had a relative staying with them who had travelled from Essex ?‍♂️

personally I think schools should be closed in tier4 areas. Either we are serious about minimising social contact or we’re not.

[RamNut]

Why are people so upset by tier 4 restrictions.

non-essential shops, leisure facilities and hairdressers to close? Big deal.

Most shopping is done via the internet now anyway.

[Sith Happens]

Just now, RamNut said:

Why are people so upset by tier 4 restrictions.

non-essential shops, leisure facilities and hairdressers to close? Big deal.

Most shopping is done via the internet now anyway.

On a personal note it wont affect me too much, i could have done with a hair cut but ill manage. I would have liked to go to the gym but can do it at home like i have most of the year ill be ok.

I have friends who were due to go on holiday and now will not be able to, so obviously it affects them a lot, i know how they feel having lost 5 holidays this year due to the restrictions.

As people have said peoples mental health is impacted and maybe the ability to go to the gym, shop and so on could help alleviate some of the issues that they have. Then of course those people who own those business will be impacted.

Just hope in a couple of months the daylight at the end of the tunnel is much brighter....i cant wait for my vaccine..bring it on.

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, RamNut said:

Why are people so upset by tier 4 restrictions.

non-essential shops, leisure facilities and hairdressers to close? Big deal.

Most shopping is done via the internet now anyway.

I couldn't even tell you the difference between tier 3 and 4 if Im being honest.

My life has pretty much been in full lockdown since November.

No problem with the lockdown measures being extended but the Goverment really need to come clean and let us know what the end game is.

People and businesses need to be able to plan.

To be told our business, with approximately 70 members of staff across 8 different sites needs to close at midnight tonight, just 2 hours before the office is due to close is just not acceptable.

[Gone]

10 minutes ago, RamNut said:

Why are people so upset by tier 4 restrictions.

non-essential shops, leisure facilities and hairdressers to close? Big deal.

Most shopping is done via the internet now anyway.

Yeah why would those people who can no longer make a living in those industries be upset? May lose their income completely, lose their house, can’t feed their kids. Yeah why are people so upset, big deal eh............

[RamNut]

3 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

Yeah why would those people who can no longer make a living in those industries be upset? May lose their income completely, lose their house, can’t feed their kids. Yeah why are people so upset, big deal eh............

Presumably they will furlough.