Coronavirus

[ariotofmyown]

2 hours ago, Albert said:

The reason it keeps coming up is this incessant argument people seem to have that 'they've done their best', which is absolute nonsense. It goes hand in hand with this 'its either lives or the economy', when best practice saved both for other countries. 

The thing is though we can ignore all the other countries if we want. All that's required for the virus to be controlled is to have means by which to put the R number below 1 and keep it there, and we know for a fact that the UK was able to do that on a number of occasions. If that can be achieved, and then the virus is eradicated, then it is okay for restrictions to be relaxed. The issue is that the UK keeps relaxing restrictions, allowing that number to rise, while case loads are too high. It was never 'lives versus the economy', as both get harmed by the same thing long term. 

Realistically, the way things are going, the UK's last option, the corner it's backed itself into, is using the tools it knows puts that figure under 1, and just keeping it there until enough people are vaccinated. That's likely going to be months away, but it seems to be the last option left, particularly given that the hospitals have more Covid patients now than they did in the first wave. It's not a pretty place to be, but it's the result of the management of the situation. Once that reality is accepted, all that's really going to be left to do is discuss the aftermath of those choices. 

I think that can be the final word on Covid, nothing really to disagree with there surely. Whilst the incompetents in charge of the UK have been pretty useless, the Western Europe and US are in a similar mess.

We should have shut down quicker at the start, but the first lockdown got us back to a manageable level. It's been a bit of a mess since and we've had all manner of restrictions and ended up with the economy still screwed and hospital numbers back to April's level.

Thankfully we have a vaccine, or there would be little hope. As @alexxxxx mentioned, and delays in rolling out available vaccines would be a disgrace now, although not unexpected.

[BIllyD]

27 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

The first recorded Covid death in the country was 31st January, the Cheltenham Festival was 16th March. 

As far as I am aware, there is very little if any data to support the theory that the Cheltenham Festival had any major effect on the level of infections. 

If the R rate was supposedly as high as 3 or 4 by time we closed down I think it is pretty safe to say the damage had already been done long before the Cheltenham Festival. 

Do you really believe that Cheltenham had no impact on infections ? We have a virus that is proven to spread easier than anything we have come across before and a festival with c100k people, mostly on the pop, standing within a few feet of each other, from all over the country. 
 

I don't know if they have or if they could track it, but surely common sense tells you that it wasn't the correct decision to allow this to go ahead and will have contributed to the spread of the virus.
 

Even if the R rate was as high as 4, why would you want to increase that, unless of course you are going for a herd immunity ?
 

 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, BIllyD said:

Do you really believe that Cheltenham had no impact on infections ? We have a virus that is proven to spread easier than anything we have come across before and a festival with c100k people, mostly on the pop, standing within a few feet of each other, from all over the country. 
 

I don't know if they have or if they could track it, but surely common sense tells you that it wasn't the correct decision to allow this to go ahead and will have contributed to the spread of the virus.

Even if the R rate was as high as 4, why would you want to increase that, unless of course you are going for a herd immunity ?

I'm sure the infection did spread there but, like I say, if the virus had been spreading since January, or even earlier, I'm sure we were past the stage of no return by then.

[Eddie]

3 minutes ago, BIllyD said:

Do you really believe that Cheltenham had no impact on infections ? We have a virus that is proven to spread easier than anything we have come across before and a festival with c100k people, mostly on the pop, standing within a few feet of each other, from all over the country. 
 

I don't know if they have or if they could track it, but surely common sense tells you that it wasn't the correct decision to allow this to go ahead and will have contributed to the spread of the virus.
 

Even if the R rate was as high as 4, why would you want to increase that, unless of course you are going for a herd immunity ?
 

 

Even crazier was the midsummer madness approach of assuming that it was all over, removing all restrictions (at least psychologically - remember the stupid newspaper headlines citing "Freedom"?), thousands of people suddenly migrating to the beach to the extent that roads were having to be closed - and all the while assuming that there would be no consequences.

[CornwallRam]

I've  just seen a worrying argument that we shouldn't be rolling out the vaccine with cases so high. 

We know that the virus mutates regularly. As soon as a vaccine rolls out there is added evolutionary pressure which in theory means that the stains with the most vaccine resistance survive whilst the others don't. That clears the way for the more resistant variants to become the dominant strains. The more cases there are out there, the more mutations happen. If a strain with some vaccine resistance mutates to have total vaccine resistance, we're in trouble. 

If we vaccinate with only a small amount of cases out there, the chances of a vaccine resistant strain developing are, apparently, far smaller. It also helps if the vaccine can be rolled out as quickly as possible because the virus gets eradicated before it has chance to mutate.  The conclusion is that we should halt the vaccine roll out and have a really strict lockdown for a few weeks. During that time we should get as much vaccine ready and train as many people as possible to administer it. As soon as the known active cases drop into the hundreds, go all out to get the vaccine out there. 

[Sith Happens]

2 minutes ago, Eddie said:

 thousands of people suddenly migrating to the beach 

that happened before lockdown was even over.

[Sith Happens]

14 minutes ago, CornwallRam said:

I've  just seen a worrying argument that we shouldn't be rolling out the vaccine with cases so high. 

We know that the virus mutates regularly. As soon as a vaccine rolls out there is added evolutionary pressure which in theory means that the stains with the most vaccine resistance survive whilst the others don't. That clears the way for the more resistant variants to become the dominant strains. The more cases there are out there, the more mutations happen. If a strain with some vaccine resistance mutates to have total vaccine resistance, we're in trouble. 

If we vaccinate with only a small amount of cases out there, the chances of a vaccine resistant strain developing are, apparently, far smaller. It also helps if the vaccine can be rolled out as quickly as possible because the virus gets eradicated before it has chance to mutate.  The conclusion is that we should halt the vaccine roll out and have a really strict lockdown for a few weeks. During that time we should get as much vaccine ready and train as many people as possible to administer it. As soon as the known active cases drop into the hundreds, go all out to get the vaccine out there. 

I suppose in a way it makes sense but would have thought if there was a serious concern then there would be more detail behind it online. 

I take what 'experts' say with a pinch of salt, lots out there trying to have their 15 minutes. Let's not forget yeadons claims that we don't need a vaccine and herd immunity had already been achieved by September. 

I'll still be banging the door down when I get my call.

[Andicis]

5 hours ago, GenBr said:

Not sure size of your house should have anything to do with how comfortable you are killing your fellow citizens. It isn't a prison - you can still go outside. 

What an incredibly poor thing to say. It can also be spun the other way so it's not even a sensible thing to say. Must be nice to be up on that high horse though?

[Sith Happens]

Russia apparently saying their covid deaths are massively under reported. Official figures at around 55k but more like 186k

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-admits-covid-death-toll-is-three-times-higher-than-reported-12174575

 

[Gone]

32 minutes ago, Sith Happens said:

that happened before lockdown was even over.

 

35 minutes ago, Eddie said:

Even crazier was the midsummer madness approach of assuming that it was all over, removing all restrictions (at least psychologically - remember the stupid newspaper headlines citing "Freedom"?), thousands of people suddenly migrating to the beach to the extent that roads were having to be closed - and all the while assuming that there would be no consequences.

I know just as crazy as protesting in their thousands in the all major cities, oh forgot we don’t mention that  ?‍♂️....but oh those buggers with their bucket and spades enjoying the sunshine, the morons. 

[Sith Happens]

Just now, TexasRam said:

 

I know just as crazy as protesting in their thousands in the all major cities, oh forgot we don’t mention that  ?‍♂️....but oh those buggers with their bucket and spades enjoying the sunshine, the morons. 

We don't mention it because politics isn't allowed but care to scan the politics thread and I was as critical of those too. 

 

[Gone]

3 minutes ago, Sith Happens said:

We don't mention it because politics isn't allowed but care to scan the politics thread and I was as critical of those too. 

 

Didn’t think it was political? anyway dodgy ground on here  I suspect. However slightly hypocritical from the original poster not to mention that as a reason for the increased spread but slating the beach goers 

[Eddie]

14 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

Didn’t think it was political? anyway dodgy ground on here  I suspect. However slightly hypocritical from the original poster not to mention that as a reason for the increased spread but slating the beach goers 

It's ridiculous, isn't it - the fact that I am on the side of science and proved right time after time, and you are permanently, it seems, on the wrong side. I guess you must be unlucky.

 

 

[Gone]

2 minutes ago, Eddie said:

It's ridiculous, isn't it - the fact that I am on the side of science and proved right time after time, and you are permanently, it seems, on the wrong side. I guess you must be unlucky.

 

 

Good swerve from answering my point.
Not sure you’ve been right about anything, and I’m certainly sure I haven’t been on the wrong side. Let’s see shall we

Lockdowns  haven’t worked, fact.

Business are going bust left right and centre, fact.

More and more people in debt, fact. 

Higher unemployment, fact.

Mental health at an all time low, fact.

Racking up huge national debt, fact. 

All for a virus that detrimentally effects less than 1% of the population, fact.

Looks like I’ve been quite right all along. Keep following the science sunshine 

[ramit]

"Whether or not coronavirus can be spread asymptomatically is perhaps the most important question surrounding the disease. After all, the assumption that it can has been used to justify mask mandates and life-ravaging lockdowns. This is why it’s striking that a major study, involving almost 10 million people, has found zero cases of asymptomatic transmission — and that our COVID-panic-porn-peddling mainstream media have met it with deafening silence.

The study was conducted in Wuhan, China, considered SARS-CoV-2 ground zero"

https://thenewamerican.com/study-of-almost-10-million-finds-no-asymptomatic-covid-spread-media-silent/

[Andicis]

43 minutes ago, Eddie said:

It's ridiculous, isn't it - the fact that I am on the side of science and proved right time after time, and you are permanently, it seems, on the wrong side. I guess you must be unlucky.

 

 

See, the easiest way to claim that you're correct is to make outlandish statements that nobody can 100% disprove, but are also just blatantly wrong and then to just throw personal insults around when you ever get pulled up on any of it.

[EtoileSportiveDeDerby]

1 hour ago, Sith Happens said:

Russia apparently saying their covid deaths are massively under reported. Official figures at around 55k but more like 186k

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-admits-covid-death-toll-is-three-times-higher-than-reported-12174575

 

Argentina just started vaccination with the Russian vaccine, Sputnik 5. Now there is a leap of faith...

[Turk Thrust]

1 hour ago, TexasRam said:

 

Lockdowns  haven’t worked, fact.

Business are going bust left right and centre, fact.

More and more people in debt, fact. 

Higher unemployment, fact.

Mental health at an all time low, fact.

Racking up huge national debt, fact. 

All for a virus that detrimentally effects less than 1% of the population, fact.

Looks like I’ve been quite right all along. Keep following the science sunshine 

All time high surely

[GboroRam]

40 minutes ago, ramit said:

"Whether or not coronavirus can be spread asymptomatically is perhaps the most important question surrounding the disease. After all, the assumption that it can has been used to justify mask mandates and life-ravaging lockdowns. This is why it’s striking that a major study, involving almost 10 million people, has found zero cases of asymptomatic transmission — and that our COVID-panic-porn-peddling mainstream media have met it with deafening silence.

The study was conducted in Wuhan, China, considered SARS-CoV-2 ground zero"

https://thenewamerican.com/study-of-almost-10-million-finds-no-asymptomatic-covid-spread-media-silent/

What are you reading these days??? Jeez!

Failed Fact Checks

CDC admits cloth face masks don’t protect against coronavirus – False

Overall, we rate the New American Right Biased based on story selection that always favors the right and Mixed for factual reporting due to rejecting the consensus of science and poor sourcing techniques. (7/19/2016) Updated (D. Van Zandt 10/31/2019)

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-new-american/

Findings not generally applicable

The researchers said that their findings did not show that the virus couldn’t be passed on by asymptomatic carriers, and they didn’t suggest that their findings were generalisable.

They said that strict measures—such as mask wearing, hand washing, social distancing, and lockdown—were successful in reducing the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan and that asymptomatic people in Wuhan may have low viral loads. This means that the finding cannot be applied to countries where outbreaks have not been successfully brought under control.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4695

[Gone]

16 minutes ago, Turk Thrust said:

All time high surely

mental health issues at an all time high yes. Peoples mental health at an all time low, depends how you read it I guess.