Coronavirus

[Andicis]

4 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

Personally, I would support one final full lockdown if there was the guarantee that this is the end game.

Yup. If there was a guaranteed, no goal post shifting, final lockdown I would partake in it without moaning once. Problem is, they say February now but it'll end up getting shifted further and further away. 

[RamNut]

40 minutes ago, Albert said:

The flu isn't a single virus, it's a family of them, and the vaccines for them are usually a lot less effective. 

But that’s quite probably where we will end up with this.

It’s so widespread that eliminating it no longer seems feasible. 

[Pearl Ram]

2 minutes ago, Andicis said:

Yup. If there was a guaranteed, no goal post shifting, final lockdown I would partake in it without moaning once. Problem is, they say February now but it'll end up getting shifted further and further away. 

A bit like the takeover of a football club I could mention. ?

[sage]

4 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

So the newspapers this morning seem to say that lockdown restrictions will be lifted once 15m vulnerable people have been vaccinated, and that if the AZ/Oxford vaccine is given the go ahead this week, this could be achieved by the end of February. 

If this is true and is the plan, the Government need to get this said as soon as possible. 

I think with a tangible end in sight, the general public will be much more compliant, especially if it is going to be for 8 or 9 more weeks.

Personally, I would support one final full lockdown if there was the guarantee that this is the end game.

I think restrictions could begin to be lifted after 15m people have been vaccinated, like pubs opening but I think mask wearing in crowded places  and maybe some distancing will continue beyond that point, maybe till everyone over 50, key workers and those with existing conditions have all been vaccinated. I would imagine is nearer 30 - 35m.  

[Albert]

13 minutes ago, RamNut said:

But that’s quite probably where we will end up with this.

It’s so widespread that eliminating it no longer seems feasible. 

That takes a long time to happen. The flu wasn't a novel disease that split into a family over the course of a year. 

Not eliminating it is condemning countries several years more of this. It's not a virus that will be 'lived with' in that sense for a long time. The rate of hospitalisation and death is too high given how infectious it is. It takes a long time for viruses to become comfortably endemic. If you accept that herd immunity is impossible, which is what you're arguing, then not going for even local elimination strategies is just asking for 2021 up to possibly 2024 to be a repeat of this year. 

Pandemics, left to burn, take years to fizzle if herd immunity ends them. If you're arguing this will mutate to the point of being endemic, it could take far longer to reach a point that health services are comfortable with combatting it, and that accepts a drop in life expectancy and life long disability for members of the community. I'm not sure how anyone would be comfortable arguing for such a view. 

Countries have virtually eliminated this virus without a vaccine, and by current measures the vaccines are very effective. Proper vaccine programs, as well as using the techniques we already know work to stop transmission, should be more than enough to get this under control globally if the effort is made. 

[Rev]

1 hour ago, sage said:

I think restrictions could begin to be lifted after 15m people have been vaccinated, like pubs opening but I think mask wearing in crowded places  and maybe some distancing will continue beyond that point, maybe till everyone over 50, key workers and those with existing conditions have all been vaccinated. I would imagine is nearer 30 - 35m.  

I suspect mask wearing in public, and social distancing, will become the new normal for us, much in the same way we've seen Eastern countries adopt similar policy's on the newsreels in recent years.

I'd always assumed air pollution must be the main driver when watching reports from China etc, with people wearing a mask as the norm, but it seems now it's a hangover from SARS, and I don't see the rest of the world deviating from that template.

[Eddie]

2 hours ago, Andicis said:

Yup. If there was a guaranteed, no goal post shifting, final lockdown I would partake in it without moaning once. Problem is, they say February now but it'll end up getting shifted further and further away. 

If enough people continue to allow themselves to be brainwashed into thinking that vaccines are bad, then that will probably  be the case.

 

[Archied]

8 hours ago, Eddie said:

If enough people continue to allow themselves to be brainwashed into thinking that vaccines are bad, then that will probably  be the case.

 

Where are you seeing this brainwashing going on , I’m not seeing that anywhere of note or in any volume 

[Bob The Badger]

10 hours ago, Rev said:

I suspect mask wearing in public, and social distancing, will become the new normal for us, much in the same way we've seen Eastern countries adopt similar policy's on the newsreels in recent years.

I'd always assumed air pollution must be the main driver when watching reports from China etc, with people wearing a mask as the norm, but it seems now it's a hangover from SARS, and I don't see the rest of the world deviating from that template.

The Japanese have been wearing masks since the 50s' although I think you are right in terms of SARS acceperating the process in other Eastern countries.

[Bob The Badger]

10 minutes ago, Archied said:

Where are you seeing this brainwashing going on , I’m not seeing that anywhere of note or in any volume 

It's happening in the US. There is a huge and very vocal anti-vaxxer community.

[Archied]

41 minutes ago, Bob The Badger said:

It's happening in the US. There is a huge and very vocal anti-vaxxer community.

Assumed Eddie was talking U.K. 

[Guest]

13 hours ago, Albert said:

The flu isn't a single virus, it's a family of them, and the vaccines for them are usually a lot less effective. 

It's a lot easier to eradicate single viruses than it is to eradicate whole families of them. Countries completely bottling the handling, like the UK, don't help though, as the more people that have a disease, the more chances there are for significant mutations, which leads to one virus becoming a group of them. 

If this virus does become endemic though, the long term consequences would be profound. Regions which have successfully controlled it, or close to it, will likely form travel bubbles between themselves, and will likely keep quarantine requirements up for a long time. Given they are the countries that are recovering the fastest, that will have some impacts on the countries where things have been allowed to spiral out of control. The biggest concern is of course that it will have long term impacts on life expectancy, particularly given the developing research on long term impacts of the disease. 

Honestly though, at this point the data, and success of strategies from countries that had clear plans, suggests that this virus can indeed be eradicated. A vaccine program, done right, can be as good, or better, than a well executed public health response. The big issue will be supporting nations that don't have the means to achieve that though. 

Strange to pick out the UK as being the country 'bottling the handling of the pandemic'. Some may even suggest you're being a WUM.

[Tamworthram]

12 hours ago, Andicis said:

Yup. If there was a guaranteed, no goal post shifting, final lockdown I would partake in it without moaning once. Problem is, they say February now but it'll end up getting shifted further and further away. 

I’m sure that if it does need to move to a later date it is only because they feel that to be the sensible and safest thing to do. I’m pretty confident that the government wants things to return to normality as soon as possible for economic reasons even if they don’t care about our quality of life. I’m not suggesting you’re in that camp but there does seem to be some that appear to be convinced that the government are only imposing and extending restrictions out of spite and for their own gain.

[Tamworthram]

1 hour ago, Bob The Badger said:

It's happening in the US. There is a huge and very vocal anti-vaxxer community.

I do wonder how many are anti-vaxxers are perhaps more concerned about the speed the vaccines are being authorised and dispensed rather than the concept of the vaccine itself. Perhaps the community will lose momentum and reduce by the time the majority are in line for their vaccine and have seen there have been no significant and widespread short term side effects. 

[Eddie]

36 minutes ago, Archied said:

Assumed Eddie was talking U.K. 

I never realised that random posts on facebook and twitter - or anywhere on the internet for that matter - respected international borders. 

[Sith Happens]

I think regarding timescales, the only mention of being back to normality feb/march is media, although I may ofcourse be wrong. 

the date I saw mentioned was 'April' where we would move from the tiered approach to one of 'personal responsibility'

or something like that 

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Sith Happens said:

I think regarding timescales, the only mention of being back to normality feb/march is media, although I may ofcourse be wrong. 

the date I saw mentioned was 'April' where we would move from the tiered approach to one of 'personal responsibility'

or something like that 

Was in a few newspapers yesterday about February if we could vaccinate so many people.

Sure this information was accidentally leaked from somewhere. 

[Sith Happens]

1 minute ago, G STAR RAM said:

Was in a few newspapers yesterday about February if we could vaccinate so many people.

Sure this information was accidentally leaked from somewhere. 

Yet the day before they mentioned tier 4 until Easter.

 

[Andicis]

2 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

I’m not suggesting you’re in that camp but there does seem to be some that appear to be convinced that the government are only imposing and extending restrictions out of spite and for their own gain.

I'm of the opinion the Government doesn't much care about the young who will pay for this lockdown, and lockdown is popular amongst the older demographics that vote for them. 

[Tamworthram]

35 minutes ago, Andicis said:

I'm of the opinion the Government doesn't much care about the young who will pay for this lockdown, and lockdown is popular amongst the older demographics that vote for them. 

we'll disagree on that then.