Coronavirus

[goldstar]

20 minutes ago, alexxxxx said:

I do wonder whether they’ll look back and think whether the measures they’ve put in for gp and hospital visits were justified.
I guess they are trying to prevent outbreaks in hospital but the backlog of operations to be done is now horrendous.

I guess a lot of the backlog has been caused by the need for people to self isolate etc.

No way were they justified. What the hell were/are the GPs doing? Can't all be on the 'frontline' as hospitals aren't overwhelmed.

If the Nightingale hospitals can't be staffed they would have known that so why build them and waste money? If there aren't enough staff, why were the volunteers and those that came out of retirement not all contacted/deployed? 

You're spot on, the backlog is terrible. 

[BIllyD]

9 minutes ago, Sith Happens said:

I think its transmissable rather than deadly. They seem to believe the severity of the illness is the same, its just easier to catch.

I suppose in a roundabout way if it is more transmissable by default it makes it more deadly.

That's what I have seen which was why I was surprised to see a post around it being more deadly. 

[Sith Happens]

3 minutes ago, BIllyD said:

That's what I have seen which was why I was surprised to see a post around it being more deadly. 

Only more deadly if you catch it on a 'grassy knoll' i heard ?

[Norman]

11 hours ago, Eddie said:

If that's the case, then 'herd immunity' would be a real possibility within another 6 months.

However, there are no official figures to back that up. The nearest we could get to that would be the ONS cases estimate, which is that for the week 6-12 December inclusive, 567300 people in England had Covid-19. It's tempting to take that figure and divide it by 7 to get a daily figure in the same ball-park as your guess, but that would only be a valid approach if the period of infection was just 7 days. Clearly, it isn't - it can be much, much longer.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/24december2020#number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19

645,000 estimate in the latest week of figures they have from the ONS

In my opinion, that will be on the low side of estimates. 

Heard immunity before vaccination?

[Guest]

33 minutes ago, goldstar said:

No way were they justified. What the hell were/are the GPs doing? Can't all be on the 'frontline' as hospitals aren't overwhelmed.

If the Nightingale hospitals can't be staffed they would have known that so why build them and waste money? If there aren't enough staff, why were the volunteers and those that came out of retirement not all contacted/deployed? 

You're spot on, the backlog is terrible. 

Arse covering.

They would not risk years of cuts through their austerity programme be blamed for Covid deaths.

Thats my opinion.

[Norman]

6 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Arse covering.

They would not risk years of cuts through their austerity programme be blamed for Covid deaths.

Thats my opinion.

I find it appalling you bring up the years of austerity into your argument. 

The fact you remind me of my stagnant public wage from that time upsets me. And probably those reading too. 

[Norman]

So the most official estimates we can get predict nearly 100,000 cases a day. (12 - 18 Dec - you can only assume it's above that now from the last weeks news) 

Add the new, infectious strains into account and that figure could explode up to 150,000 plus infections a day in the next week or two. 

You'd be close to a million infections a week. Bearing in mind the amount of people who must have already had it, those who have already been vaccinated and those who don't care if they get it or not - are we now at a point where we must be close to herd immunity. Is it possible? 

Can you keep getting infected, do the other strains make the same people vulnerable to it again? In which case, will the vaccine work? 

I bet the government and scientists don't even know the answers to these questions.

Scary times. 

[ariotofmyown]

2 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

I am not defending anybody's posts.

I happen to agree with you about what some people are posting.

However, I am also calling out your post as garbage.

Youve said it on numerous occassions now that anyone that doesnt agree with the official narrative somehow doesnt care about people dying.

That is also laughable.

Some people just happen to be bothered about deaths and other knock on effects caused by the measures being implemented.

 

I'm pretty sure I've never said that people who don't agree with the official narrative don't care about people dying. If any of my posts read that way then that was not my intention.

I do think people posting pathetic conspiracy theories is insensitive to those people who have lost loved ones. Hopefully they are not reading this thread if that is the case.

I do know 3 people who have been diagnosed with cancer in the last year and are been treated. I'm sure people have suffered delays with other illnesses but some people talk as though all other ill people have been written off.

I'm glad you agree with me on some of what is been posted. Perhaps you will call out some of that occasionally too.

[ariotofmyown]

26 minutes ago, Norman said:

I find it appalling you bring up the years of austerity into your argument. 

The fact you remind me of my stagnant public wage from that time upsets me. And probably those reading too. 

I think we can all agree that the years of austerity were a disgrace.

[ariotofmyown]

35 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Arse covering.

They would not risk years of cuts through their austerity programme be blamed for Covid deaths.

Thats my opinion.

And their 10 years of winding back pandemic planning and ignoring simulations of emergencies.

[Guest]

One in 85 people in England now has Covid, according to the ONS or 1.2%

The regional breakdown shows London was the most-affected area, with more than 2% of people infected in the capital.

The ONS estimate does not include people in care homes, hospitals, or other institutional settings.

 

[Eddie]

10 hours ago, Andicis said:

I'm going by predicted figures by the majority of scientists, not many predict more than 0.5%, to say it's 2% or 3% as you did would mean the scientists aren't even in the same ball park. 0.5% is roughly the highest they're going to, your numbers are plucked from thin air.

On the contrary, my figures are the number of confirmed deaths (which as of yesterday was 69,051) expressed as a percentage of confirmed cases (which as of yesterday was 2,149,551) which actually comes to 3.21%. 

If we take your ballpark figure (a maximum of 0.5% of cases resulting in deaths) and assuming that the 'official' figure of deaths 'within 28 days of a positive test' is accurate, that would equate to something like 25% of the population on the UK already having had the disease.

 

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

I'm pretty sure I've never said that people who don't agree with the official narrative don't care about people dying. If any of my posts read that way then that was not my intention.

I do think people posting pathetic conspiracy theories is insensitive to those people who have lost loved ones. Hopefully they are not reading this thread if that is the case.

I do know 3 people who have been diagnosed with cancer in the last year and are been treated. I'm sure people have suffered delays with other illnesses but some people talk as though all other ill people have been written off.

I'm glad you agree with me on some of what is been posted. Perhaps you will call out some of that occasionally too.

How do you know people that have lost loved ones do not hold the same views?

I am sure if they find it insensitive that they are able to make that point for themselves.

There is nothing really for me to call out. People have conspiracy theories that I do not agree with but I don't have any evidence to disprove what they say, so its pointless me calling them pathetic or whatever.

[Eddie]

57 minutes ago, Norman said:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/24december2020#number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19

645,000 estimate in the latest week of figures they have from the ONS

In my opinion, that will be on the low side of estimates. 

Heard immunity before vaccination?

Man on DCFCFANS has a better model or a better grasp of statistics than the ONS shock.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Eddie said:

On the contrary, my figures are the number of confirmed deaths (which as of yesterday was 69,051) expressed as a percentage of confirmed cases (which as of yesterday was 2,149,551) which actually comes to 3.21%. 

If we take your ballpark figure (a maximum of 0.5% of cases resulting in deaths) and assuming that the 'official' figure of deaths 'within 28 days of a positive test' is accurate, that would equate to something like 25% of the population on the UK already having had the disease.

Confirmed cases of Covid 2,149,551

Patients hospitalised through Covid 255,600

That would equate to 1 in just over cases being hospitalised. 

Add in the people that have died in care homes that would have othetwise been hospitalised. 

Seems a bit on the high side dont you think. 

Personally, I know of 2 people that have been hospitalised through Covid.

[Norman]

8 minutes ago, Eddie said:

Man on DCFCFANS has a better model or a better grasp of statistics than the ONS shock.

Sorry for expressing the opinion that the ONS would be on the side of caution when publishing estimates. But it would be a common sense kind of move. 

I didn't claim I knew better. I leave that for others. Just an opinion.

[RamNut]

2 hours ago, Sith Happens said:

Likewise with GP's, perhaps attitudes to visits might change and people wont run to the GP's for the slightest sniffle. The amount of times someone will say to me 'have you been to the doctors' if ive had a bad cold, im like 'no ive got a cold what difference is the doctor going to make'.

Leave going to the hospital and GP's for those who actually really need to be going.

Sounds like you go to a different medical practice to me.

I can virtually never get to see a doctor. 

more chance of an audience with the Pope.

 

[Sith Happens]

4 minutes ago, RamNut said:

Sounds like you go to a different medical practice to me.

I can virtually never get to see a doctor. 

more chance of an audience with the Pope.

 

I only get to see the Pope once a year ?

[Ghost of Clough]

2 hours ago, Sith Happens said:

Only more deadly if you catch it on a 'grassy knoll' i heard ?

@Eddie was claiming 2-3% of all people who catch it will die

[Norman]

10 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

@Eddie was claiming 2-3% of all people who catch it will die

Man on DCFCFANS has a better model or a better grasp of statistics than the ONS shock