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1 hour ago, Sith Happens said:

Cheers, I know lots of people, including myself, who were very ill last Christmas. If i had those symptoms today i would be convinced i had Covid.

I do still wonder, even with these reports, if it was circulating why it took until spring for excess deaths to be recorded.

I do recall some report that satellite images showed huge queues last summer in Wuhan outside medical centres, and hospitals..dont know if that was true or just media reporting.

 

 

I recall deaths being above the 5 year average from October to the New Year. No 'peaks', but still consistently above the average week on week.

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10 hours ago, Sith Happens said:

Interesting, although I note it says it has not been peer-reviewed yet.

I certainly had an illness last December with an uncontrollable cough, but I don;t remember having a temperature, or losing my sense of smell/taste. I'd like to think it was Covid and I'm now at low risk of catching it again in any severe form - but on balance (and until someone tells us otherwise) I suspect it was just some other coronavirus

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Was on a call yesterday and the subject of the logistics of moving these vaccines around came up. Going to be very difficult, no capacity in airfreight. -70 > -80 Oc is a huge problem as well.. Unless it is manufactured in country, it's going to be a challenge and slow.

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2 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I recall deaths being above the 5 year average from October to the New Year. No 'peaks', but still consistently above the average week on week.

Indeed they were. From the w/e 4 October 2019 until w/e 3 January 2020, there were a total of 147017 deaths recorded in England and Wales. This compares to a total of 141829 as the average for the previous five years over the same period.

Now taking the period w/e 10 January 2020 until w/e 20 March 2020, there were a total of 126662, compared to an average of 131563 over the previous five years.

So taking the entire period from w/e 4 October 2019 until w/e 20 March 2020, there were a total of 273679 deaths. The average for the previous five years gives a corresponding figure of 273382 - a difference of just 297 - or a little under 2 deaths per day.

I think we can utterly discount the theory that Covid-19 was having any effect on death tolls whatsoever during Autumn and Winter 2019.

Source: ONS

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

 

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22 hours ago, Coconut said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/moderna-covid-vaccine-candidate-almost-95-effective-trials-show

"So far, the UK does not stand to benefit from the vaccine. Moderna has agreed deals to provide the US with 100 million doses, with an option to buy 400 million more. Japan, Canada, Switzerland, Qatar and Israel have also signed agreements, and the European Commission has a “potential purchase agreement” for 8 to 160 million doses. The UK chose not to participate in the EU scheme, with Matt Hancock arguing in July that the government could source vaccine faster on its own"

picard-meme-facepalm.jpg

 

 

As much as I'm pro remain and not a particularly big fan of the Tories, we don't seem to have blundered too badly with this one (despite the Guardian intimating otherwise with their wording in this article).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/uk-in-advanced-discussions-to-buy-moderna-covid-vaccine

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21 minutes ago, DarkFruitsRam7 said:

As much as I'm pro remain and not a particularly big fan of the Tories, we don't seem to have blundered too badly with this one (despite the Guardian intimating otherwise with their wording in this article).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/uk-in-advanced-discussions-to-buy-moderna-covid-vaccine

There's some difference though. We've negotiated enough doses to cover about 7% of the population. The EU have negotiated enough doses to cover 21%, with another 21% an option (after removing 70m British population from the EU headcount). Will it matter? Hopefully not, as others have said - there's other vaccines available. But with the amount of money that's been thrown at handling this virus, I'd like us to be involved in every trial and test that's available.

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30 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

There's some difference though. We've negotiated enough doses to cover about 7% of the population. The EU have negotiated enough doses to cover 21%, with another 21% an option (after removing 70m British population from the EU headcount). Will it matter? Hopefully not, as others have said - there's other vaccines available. But with the amount of money that's been thrown at handling this virus, I'd like us to be involved in every trial and test that's available.

The EU has a 'potential purchase agreement'.

 

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Just a few figures picked up from the ONS death rates:-

Excess deaths September 2019 to December 2019 were circa 6k (not sure if this backs @Sith Happenspoint about the virus being around since Septembe 2019)

2020 deaths with Covid mentioned on the death certificate is circa 58k which is pretty identical to the excess deaths recorded this year (does this indicate that there are no excess deaths from other causes? Or maybe an over reporting of Covid deaths)

2018 excess deaths (when we had a bad flu season) were 21k, just to give some sort of comparison of Covid pandemic to a bad flu season)

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4 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Guardian reports that we have secured 5m doses.

 

Politico a little less forthright: 

"British Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the UK had secured an initial agreement to buy five million doses of the US vaccine."

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-announces-coronavirus-vaccine-deal-with-moderna/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication

Also says that it's still in the preliminary stages, so it's hardly surprising nobody has put their eggs in this basket just yet.

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55 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Just a few figures picked up from the ONS death rates:-

Excess deaths September 2019 to December 2019 were circa 6k (not sure if this backs @Sith Happenspoint about the virus being around since Septembe 2019)

2020 deaths with Covid mentioned on the death certificate is circa 58k which is pretty identical to the excess deaths recorded this year (does this indicate that there are no excess deaths from other causes? Or maybe an over reporting of Covid deaths)

2018 excess deaths (when we had a bad flu season) were 21k, just to give some sort of comparison of Covid pandemic to a bad flu season)

Not sure if they are the most up to date figures.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-54971208

I saw this earlier. 

1786C8BB-E8FC-410D-B1DE-EDF1817605EA.jpeg

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10 minutes ago, jimmyp said:

Not sure if they are the most up to date figures.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-54971208

I saw this earlier. 

1786C8BB-E8FC-410D-B1DE-EDF1817605EA.jpeg

Latest figures released today per ONS website up to 6 November 2020.

Deaths since first pandemic death recorded 400,422.

5 year average for same period 337,135.

So excess deaths for that period were 63,287.

Think this applies to England and Wales only though.

My figure of 58,000 was for the whole year rather than just the period since the first Covid death was recorded.

 

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Can we finally agree that the idea that the coronavirus was infecting people last September (a suggestion based upon excess deaths between September 2019 and the end of December 2019) is incorrect?

I'm assuming that's the case, seeing as nobody disputed my analysis (which is a first).

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2 hours ago, Eddie said:

Can we finally agree that the idea that the coronavirus was infecting people last September (a suggestion based upon excess deaths between September 2019 and the end of December 2019) is incorrect?

I'm assuming that's the case, seeing as nobody disputed my analysis (which is a first).

Perhaps everyone has you on ignore now? Not me buddy - I’m a keeper.

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3 hours ago, Eddie said:

Can we finally agree that the idea that the coronavirus was infecting people last September (a suggestion based upon excess deaths between September 2019 and the end of December 2019) is incorrect?

I'm assuming that's the case, seeing as nobody disputed my analysis (which is a first).

Not disputing it, but a few questions you may or may not know the answer too...

If this thing happens in waves would we not expect a dip after the first wave? Explaining the fall between Sep to Dec to Jan to Mar?

If not Covid, what caused a pretty steady increase of 500 excess deaths per week between Sep and Dec 19?

And, if the above was flu related why did this not continue into Jan to Mar 20?

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36 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Not disputing it, but a few questions you may or may not know the answer too...

If this thing happens in waves would we not expect a dip after the first wave? Explaining the fall between Sep to Dec to Jan to Mar?

If not Covid, what caused a pretty steady increase of 500 excess deaths per week between Sep and Dec 19?

And, if the above was flu related why did this not continue into Jan to Mar 20?

Last Autumn was the wettest on record in parts of England and Wales, followed by a very benign, dry, warm Spring. Perhaps that was a reason, but I doubt it would be the only one. The point I was making is that looking at statistics over the short term is quite tricky at best and highly misleading at worst - there can be any number of reasons why a trend suddenly seems to stop - and it can lead to 'cherry-picking' of statistics in order to justify a viewpoint.

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