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11 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

You really dont read anything else that anyone ever writes so I feel as though it's a waste of time even responding.

What reason do you have to say this, apart from wanting a cheap out?

11 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

You've clearly set your stall out that you think your, and only your, opinion is correct, which of course is fine.

As above. 

11 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Not much point in responding to me as there is no debate to be had with you.

There is plenty of debate to be had, you just don't have an argument with any kind of solid basis to go with, so you're more than happy to just skulk off with any excuse you can cobble together. 

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Bit tense on here this morning... shame we can't talk about the B word so we can all agree, hold hands and be friends 👀

on the C word... this morning in the ST they say Asia seem to have the right to deal with it, hard lockdowns but it would not work in Europe because we are not as good at following government advice and we don't have dictatorship. Rock and and hard place sprung to mind!

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7 minutes ago, Albert said:

Maybe, that's what some have been saying for over 170 days here in South Australia. There was indeed a situation where someone who was asymptomatic went to two different schools, both with over 1000 students, but the health authorities managed to do the tracing, and ultimately with the risk involved, isolated every person who had been there for those days for 14 days. This did indeed contain that, and the state hasn't seen another community transmitted case since. 

Sports events are still running reduced capacity, with detailed records of who is going where, what and how. Maybe something might go wrong, but they're still running with systems to keep that under control. 

Yep, and that's the risk of 'opening up' too soon. The whole point with the advise discussed above is that you don't just 'open up' in that way. Restrictions remain, and testing and tracing sorts the rest. You're open, but in a Covid-normal, not a pre-Covid-normal. 

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here. There have been outbreaks in Australia, and these have been controlled. Again, there was a cluster in South Australia in two schools at once, and that was effectively controlled. NSW has seen numerous clusters, but kept things under control, though if anywhere is going to be the one to see the situation fall apart, it's NSW. 

Then there's Victoria, which did have the situation spiral out of control, and only managed to regain control through lockdowns, and harsh restrictions, though these are rolling back now. 

Again though, my point isn't that Australia's response has been perfect. Far from it, I certainly wouldn't rate it as highly as New Zealand's (which also had a fairly significant cluster a few months back, which they also managed to control). The point is, however, that gaining control, and then using testing and tracing to maintain that, is definitely possible. 

You're not sure what point I am trying to make? Honestly? 

I thought my point was clear. Your economy will open up, restrictions on travel will ease, people will become weary of the measures, your quarantine period will probably be halved as new, faster tests come in (that will cause more problems than it solves) . Sports stadiums, concert halls, bars, clubs all open. 

It will happen. You can't stop it. 

Only then will I judge what a gold standard is.

I'm not going to argue on the point that our lockdown should have been harder and longer. It's not worth it and it's been done over and over by you and @maxjam

Just to point out, you only have 17 cases currently, and have been at a similar level for ages, but you can't eliminate it. Why not? 

Now imagine a few hundred with your economy open. 

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7 minutes ago, Norman said:

You're not sure what point I am trying to make? Honestly? 

I thought my point was clear. Your economy will open up, restrictions on travel will ease, people will become weary of the measures, your quarantine period will probably be halved as new, faster tests come in (that will cause more problems than it solves) . Sports stadiums, concert halls, bars, clubs all open. 

All that's been open for months. Much of it has been open since April-Mayish. Testing has remained at similar rates, and focus has very much remained on doing things right. That said, we've had Victoria to help everyone else keep focus. 

Not sure why you're think quarantine periods would be cut, that would be a truly bizarre move given that the purpose of 14 day quarantine is that it can take time for infections to develop. Speed of testing will not change that. 

7 minutes ago, Norman said:

It will happen. You can't stop it. 

Only then will I judge what a gold standard is.

So, what you're attempting to say is that while this response has successfully controlled the outbreaks, and do so for around half a year at this point, that it must, and will all go wrong? It could well do, but given the success of the strategies so far, and the fact that where it did all go wrong they have indeed gotten it back under control, it seems reasonable to think that a repeat of the same process would achieve the same result. 

7 minutes ago, Norman said:

I'm not going to argue on the point that our lockdown should have been harder and longer. It's not worth it and it's been done over and over by you and @maxjam

Just to point out, you only have 17 cases currently, and have been at a similar level for ages, but you can't eliminate it. Why not? 

Now imagine a few hundred with your economy open. 

Different states. Victoria was very much not under control for a long time, hence Australia's second wave, which is now under control. The rest of the cases are international arrivals in hotel quarantine, as the government are repatriating people from overseas, and have been doing so all year. 

My own perspective on the situation is large regarding South Australia, which has had one outbreak, which was rapidly controlled, as noted, around 70 days back. There were 100 days with no community transmission prior to that. The same can be said of Western Australia, the territories, Queensland and Tasmania where the virus is effectively eliminated. NSW has maintained a low number of cases, but their response has remained the most haphazard, and least focused on elimination. Again, I suspect they'll be the one where it all goes wrong next, if it does. 

Again though, Australia is far from the best, and the bigger point is that this is very much achievable, not just a fluke. It's not just Australia, and different approaches in different countries have worked. I know it's comforting to think 'it was always going to be this way', but it wasn't, and it doesn't need to be.

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53 minutes ago, EtoileSportiveDeDerby said:

Bit tense on here this morning... shame we can't talk about the B word so we can all agree, hold hands and be friends 👀

on the C word... this morning in the ST they say Asia seem to have the right to deal with it, hard lockdowns but it would not work in Europe because we are not as good at following government advice and we don't have dictatorship. Rock and and hard place sprung to mind!

Yeah, those dictators that run South Korea are proper scary!

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1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said:

You really dont read anything else that anyone ever writes so I feel as though it's a waste of time even responding.

You've clearly set your stall out that you think your, and only your, opinion is correct, which of course is fine.

Not much point in responding to me as there is no debate to be had with you.

You don't live in Australia either so you have no idea about what is going on there. @Albert will probably say something like they've had only 5 deaths vs ours 50k, but you can "prove" anything with "numbers". It's Team Cummings for me all the way. Did you know he warned about the threat of pandemics on his scarily accurate blogs last year?

There is nothing that other countries can teach us about anything. And as for the so-called World Heath Organisation, I've called them out for the frauds that they are since Day 1, like when they were warning about Covid at the start of the year and that we needed to lockdown asap. Yeah right, we showed them experts!

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1 hour ago, Norman said:

Albert, one day someone in Oz with no symptoms will walk in to a stadium and infect hundreds, rapidly. That will turn into thousands, and most won't have symptoms. The track and trace will be largely pointless. 

It will happen. We were estimated to be at 100k a day infections at the end of March. Our poor testing regime still manged to get 5x as many positives as Australia at this point. 

The virus had gone too far here. Germany did a better job, but still couldn't manage to track and trace a few hundred cases a day when they opened up their economy. Now they are at 8k a day and have no hope of getting that down without more lockdowns.

When Australia are at 250 cases a day (and not in a strict lockdown or about to impose one) , I will listen to their response. But as most don't have symptoms, I'm going to guess you will just be as inept as the rest of us and trying to keep a lid on it without National Lockdowns.

Think that is an interesting point there about what may happen in the future in a place like Australia.

Will their checks and processes be enough to prevent a future surge in infections which forces major lockdowns?

The experiences of places like Japan, NZ, Taiwan, South Korea suggest that it's possible.

In Western Europe the virus was spread everywhere before any action was taken, which now makes the idea of controlling it again almost impossible without more major lockdowns, that will damage the economy even further.

We've shown we are incapable of implementing an effective track and trace system regardless, so another lockdown would probably be a waste of time as infections would just surge again when we open up.

But if we don't lockdown, the bodies will probably pile up again.

It must be possible to have a government who can articulate this dilemma, but I don't think the current regime is in anyway capable of doing this.

 

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49 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

You don't live in Australia either so you have no idea about what is going on there. @Albert will probably say something like they've had only 5 deaths vs ours 50k, but you can "prove" anything with "numbers". It's Team Cummings for me all the way. Did you know he warned about the threat of pandemics on his scarily accurate blogs last year?

There is nothing that other countries can teach us about anything. And as for the so-called World Heath Organisation, I've called them out for the frauds that they are since Day 1, like when they were warning about Covid at the start of the year and that we needed to lockdown asap. Yeah right, we showed them experts!

Dont remember commenting on what was happening in Australia?

I may have said I dont think comparing Australia with Europe doesn't work in my opinion. I think the numbers reflect that but happy for that opinion to be challenged.

If you think the WHO warnings about Covid at the beginning of the year were sufficient then I will respectfully disagree with you.

I dread to think how many cases a day we were at by time their 'warnings' made people sit up and take notice.

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2 hours ago, Albert said:

What reason do you have to say this, apart from wanting a cheap out?

As above. 

There is plenty of debate to be had, you just don't have an argument with any kind of solid basis to go with, so you're more than happy to just skulk off with any excuse you can cobble together. 

If that is what you think, fine.

From reading your posts though that is the opinion I have formed.

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3 hours ago, Albert said:

Again though, my point isn't that Australia's response has been perfect. Far from it, I certainly wouldn't rate it as highly as New Zealand's (which also had a fairly significant cluster a few months back, which they also managed to control). The point is, however, that gaining control, and then using testing and tracing to maintain that, is definitely possible. 

How do you gain control when there are hundreds of thousands of cases and many are asymptomatic. 

In theory your idea sounds great, in reality I think you're living in a dream world.

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1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said:

A 4 month lockdown failed, how is a 2 week lockdown going to be any different?

It didn't fail to gain control though. You do remember when we had 50k excess deaths right? And when we were getting 1k deaths per day? They weren't great times.

Our glorious leadership managed to waste the time though, giving huge contracts to their incompetent mates.

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34 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

It didn't fail to gain control though. You do remember when we had 50k excess deaths right? And when we were getting 1k deaths per day? They weren't great times.

Our glorious leadership managed to waste the time though, giving huge contracts to their incompetent mates.

So we gained control but you are then criticising the Government.

I think you should try and get your argument straight before posting.

You start off talking about Coronavirus and then resort back to political bashing, even though your two arguments contradict each other.

Maybe stick to posting about one thing at a time?

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2 hours ago, TexasRam said:

Seriously why do you crave a lockdown so much? I think in the UK for whatever reason it’s shown not to have worked, I’m really intrigued why you desire one so much. 

I'm intrigued why you hate the NHS so much that you want to risk it crumbling under the pressure of our normally crazy winter plus an out of control pandemic virus. 

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12 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

So we gained control but you are then criticising the Government.

I think you should try and get your argument straight before posting.

You start off talking about Coronavirus and then resort back to political bashing, even though your two arguments contradict each other.

Maybe stick to posting about one thing at a time?

We lockdown too late.

But lockdown was totally necessary.

But the government failed to put the required things in place to allow for an successful reopening, hence we are back to where we started.

Is that clear enough for you?

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2 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

A 4 month lockdown failed, how is a 2 week lockdown going to be any different?

I don't know if the UK could do it, to be honest (that's not to say I don't think it is possible, I just don't think there's the political will).

It would have to be a much tougher 2 week lockdown than the 4 month one was. It would need to be followed up with much better testing, a vast increase of capacity to test almost everyone who has symptoms or comes into contact with someone with a positive test, and far more aggressive tracing. 

It would also need the public to buy into following the rules, which I can't see happening. 

Get used to the current situation, I'd recommend. I don't see any definitive improvement - the economy will be allowed to remain at least partially open, so the virus will remain with us for a long time. No government will throw the NHS to the wolves like we did to case homes. We'll never be able to privatise it later if we did. 

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7 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

We lockdown too late.

But lockdown was totally necessary.

But the government failed to put the required things in place to allow for an successful reopening, hence we are back to where we started.

Is that clear enough for you?

So did we get it under control or not, I'm almost as confused as your argument...

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