Coronavirus

[GboroRam]

46 minutes ago, Mostyn6 said:

Huh? Generosity? 
Is this money coming out of govt own pockets? 
try looking where the money is going and you’ll answer your own riddles. 

But it hasn't all gone to their funders, or their preferred sponsors. Pretty much a blanket giveaway of cash to business to offset losses by closing those businesses. 

Of course it isn't generosity, but it is very much against the grain for a government that brought you austerity. They don't do public spending, yet have given millions out. Why? What's caused the change in direction? Why have so many other governments done the same across the world?

I still can't answer these riddles.

[ariotofmyown]

Just read this excellent article on the debate between "the science" and how minority views are amplified by a media looking for conflict and something that backs up their ideas.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/29/rival-scientists-lockdowns-scientific-covid-19

 

[Uptherams]

1 hour ago, GboroRam said:

I asked earlier but got no answer. Why are these people doing these things?

Why are we locking down people if it's not necessary?

Why does almost every world government agree it's necessary when the "evidence" says otherwise?

Why did the government blow billions on emergency conditions - they aren't known for generosity normally?

Who benefits? It must be being done for a reason. The only reasons I've heard so far are to bring in the new world order, and that's why the lizards and 5G are coming into the conversation.

If you don't believe the 5G/lizard conspiracy theories, what are yours?

Fear.

Those accountable have lost all perspective. The only metrics they care about right now relate to Covid. It's like how you have a wartime Prime minister and a peacetime Prime minister. Completely different mindsets, priorities, etc. 

They must assume as much control as possible because they fear the backlash they face for Covid deaths. They believe the more control they have the more deaths they can prevent and less people can accuse them of not doing enough.

Much of the media and many of the public don't tolerate any deaths. Utterly hysterical. If the UK took a completely different approach to say France and we ended up with just 1000 more deaths this year, many people wouldn't behave rationally. They'd see that as a huge failure and how those accountable should be shamed publicly in the streets. Ridiculous. 

The cabinet and Sage are in the bunker. Still drawing up plans. Ignoring what is happening outside of the bunker. The war is already over. 

Is there some grand conspiracy? As I highlighted, no. They are driven and motivated by fear. 

[Uptherams]

To add to that. This is all trial and error. Globally. If every country takes the same measures, you don't learn anything. You don't know what strategies are effective. 

It is clear that tens of thousands of people per million population will not die from Covid. Now more than ever it is important for countries to take different approaches. In March/April it was understandable, but not now. 

[Albert]

2 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

Fear.

Those accountable have lost all perspective. The only metrics they care about right now relate to Covid. It's like how you have a wartime Prime minister and a peacetime Prime minister. Completely different mindsets, priorities, etc. 

They must assume as much control as possible because they fear the backlash they face for Covid deaths. They believe the more control they have the more deaths they can prevent and less people can't accuse them of doing enough.

Much of the media and many of the public don't tolerate any deaths. Utterly hysterical. If the UK took a completely different approach to say France and we ended up with just 1000 more deaths this year, many people wouldn't behave rationally. They'd see that as a huge failure and how those accountable should be shamed publicly in the streets. Ridiculous. 

The cabinet and Sage are in the bunker. Still drawing up plans. Ignoring what is happening outside of the bunker. The war is already over. 

Is there some grand conspiracy? As I highlighted, no. They are driven and motivated by fear. 

So, what you're arguing is that this has come about because they have tried to serve the desires of their constituents, the very reason they're there in the first place? 

You're right though, people can, and should, judge politicians harshly if they policies have failed. The UK is among the leaders for deaths per capita from Covid-19. At 631.7 per million, the overall record is poor, even worse than the USA. Look at places like Australia* (35.29), Japan (12.34), New Zealand (5.12), Singapore (4.79), etc. These countries all went with strong lockdowns, and got those rewards. People, valuing human life, should look to those examples and realise it could have been done better, and without strong controls now, it could still get a lot worse. 

*Cheers Victoria. 

[Shuff264]

The case numbers haven't developed the way I expected, which is a good thing, but I think its too soon to call it a hoax or just wrong.

Patients in hospital has nearly doubled over the last month, as has those on ventilators.

Cases by reported date appear to be dropping, however by specimen date (the actual day of the test) they are still rising - allowing for the lag in data being updated

The whole argument around deaths not being up is silly, you dont get COVID day 1 and die day 2. Most deaths occur much later, we wont see the increase in deaths resulting from the case increases for a little while yet but I do expect deaths per case to be far lower due to increased testing and improved treatment.

Todays reported cases will be important, if they match what we've been seeing over the weekend, then maybe things aren't so bad. However, we are still limited by testing to understand the true extent. ZOE have been estimating 10-15k cases a day recently.

[RoyMac5]

19 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

Just read this excellent article on the debate between "the science" and how minority views are amplified by a media looking for conflict and something that backs up their ideas.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/29/rival-scientists-lockdowns-scientific-covid-19

Quote

Neither argument is scientifically invalid. But they are both scientifically incomplete. Gupta’s studies are not yet peer-reviewed and are based on observations, not experimentation. Although Heneghan’s critique of testing methods may merit further study, rising hospital admissions may soon prove the spike is real, whatever the test results say. In both cases, these theories seem to have bloomed into a general belief that the entire consensus around coronavirus is too cautious.

But caution has always been the point. We are used to scientific advice that is based upon years of peer review and replication. Science on a short timescale is messy and fallible, as this crisis has shown. Basic questions about the transmissibility and effects of the virus are still unresolved months after the outbreak began. The rule, when translating uncertainty into policy recommendations, has been to manage risk. We don’t know how catastrophic a truly uncontrolled outbreak would be, and so scientific advice tends to avoid steering us into that unknown.

?

[Albert]

4 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

To add to that. This is all trial and error. Globally. If every country takes the same measures, you don't learn anything. You don't know what strategies are effective. 

It is clear that tens of thousands of people per million population will not die from Covid. Now more than ever it is important for countries to take different approaches. In March/April it was understandable, but not now. 

What a load of nonsense. Every country has taken a different route on this, and it shows. Countries that went for early, and hard, lockdowns, as well as strong testing regimes and contact tracing efforts, fared much much better, as noted in the previous posts. 

We already have a lot of research on how pandemics spread, it's no coincidence that countries who were prepared went down similar routes, and all performed well. 

Also, it's pretty clear from the data that the infection fatality rate is around that 0.5-1.0% range. This, along with the herd immunity mark of in excess of 70%, does indeed imply that the upper limit for deaths per million is indeed in the range 3,500 - 7,000. That's not 10,000, but it's damn close. 

[ariotofmyown]

3 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

To add to that. This is all trial and error. Globally. If every country takes the same measures, you don't learn anything. You don't know what strategies are effective. 

It is clear that tens of thousands of people per million population will not die from Covid. Now more than ever it is important for countries to take different approaches. In March/April it was understandable, but not now. 

Everyone did the same in March and April!? What are you talking about?

South Korea, Japan, NZ, Aus, Vietnam, Ghana.

vs Western Europe, UK, USA, Sweden, Brazil.

One of those groups had loads of deaths per head, the other very few. You think they all did the same thing?

I can imagine the governments sitting around discussing how they now should all do different things so they work out the best strategies. Ok, some of the countries will have huge deaths tolls, but at least we'll learn something. Hands up who wants to remove all restrictions and pretend it's 2019 again? It's probably safe because a scientist in the Daily Mail said so.

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, Albert said:

Also, it's pretty clear from the data that the infection fatality rate is around that 0.5-1.0% range. This, along with the herd immunity mark of in excess of 70%, does indeed imply that the upper limit for deaths per million is indeed in the range 3,500 - 7,000. That's not 10,000, but it's damn close. 

Statistically speaking this is not ‘damn close’

[Uptherams]

Countries entering lockdowns 1-2 weeks earlier or later is not a significant change of approach or stratergy. 

Infection mortality rate isn't 1% either. Almost everyone who is dieing is being tested for Covid. Almost every single person who goes to a hospital is being tested. Forget the fact that we have false positive tests. There are people who actually do have Covid and die but Covid will have played no role in their death. But is included in the statistics. There is no metric utilised right now to establish if Covid was actually a cause. This is being managed completely differently to the Flu. If every single person who entered the hospital or died was tested for the flu from October to March, we'd have flu deaths in the hundreds of thousands. 

Covid deaths already got revised down once already. In time (1-5 years), Covid deaths will be revised down and it appears as though they will be so, significantly. 

[Albert]

6 minutes ago, Monty said:

Statistically speaking this is not ‘damn close’

???

'Statistically', what are you even attempting to say with this post. Comparison of figures isn't a statistical matter, at least not in this context. They're all within a power of 10 though, which is close for an exponential system such as this one. 

Uptherams gave a number with no context, nor explanation, so I brought up what the current research is suggesting on that front.

[Ghost of Clough]

33 minutes ago, Albert said:

So, what you're arguing is that this has come about because they have tried to serve the desires of their constituents, the very reason they're there in the first place? 

You're right though, people can, and should, judge politicians harshly if they policies have failed. The UK is among the leaders for deaths per capita from Covid-19. At 631.7 per million, the overall record is poor, even worse than the USA. Look at places like Australia* (35.29), Japan (12.34), New Zealand (5.12), Singapore (4.79), etc. These countries all went with strong lockdowns, and got those rewards. People, valuing human life, should look to those examples and realise it could have been done better, and without strong controls now, it could still get a lot worse. 

*Cheers Victoria. 

Just nitpicking but according to Worldometers the figures are:

USA - 633
UK - 618
Australia - 34
Japan - 12
New Zealand - 5
Singapore - 5

[Stive Pesley]

13 hours ago, Mostyn6 said:

Just out of interest, did you watch the clip of Gareth’s speech? Or instantly dismiss it based on surname? 

I watched it - I know he's your mate, so don't take this personally. I'm sure he's an OK guy on a personal "real life" level but professionally -

he's essentially a grifter, exploiting an awful lot of paranoid and vulnerable people. You only have to look through the replies of his Twitter feed to see the state of his audience. Claims to "love everyone" but not once does he ever call-out a follower who replies with something racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-semitic or just plain insanity. You don't bite the hand that feeds I guess.

But I'm not painting his entire audience that way - plenty of sane people who like to question stuff in there I'm sure - but it's the grift that allows him to turn a blind eye to the vulnerable and the impressionable which doesn't sit right with me

I saw someone post the photo of the actual fascist with the flag at the last rally, and it was dismissed as "just a plant" - and that then set off yet another conspiracy theory. So you see how it works to the suggestible. Is it really more likely that the guy was a deep state plant, placed there to discredit something that no one takes seriously anyway - or more likely that David Icke and his outsider anti-semitic conspiracy theories simply attract the odd mad fascist?

I suppose ultimately it's ironic that the message of "wake up and don't be a sheep" is totally based on the same sheep mentality for it's audience. With the same intention of gaining notoriety and making money from those sheep. When will people wake up to THAT?

 

 

 

 

[Uptherams]

10 minutes ago, Monty said:

Statistically speaking this is not ‘damn close’

I can play that silly game too.

1% infection fatality rate. People like that dude are scaremongering about if you have it once you could get it again. Fine by me. Instead of 80% of the population getting Covid, I'll take the you can get it again card into account. 

66 million infections, 1% fatality rate. 

660,000 people in the UK will die of Covid. 

???

 

[RoyMac5]

8 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

If every single person who entered the hospital or died was tested for the flu from October to March, we'd have flu deaths in the hundreds of thousands. 

Really? How do you know that?

[Spanish]

10 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

There are people who actually do have Covid and die but Covid will have played no role in their death.

How many?  Are you suggesting that there a large numbers of asymptomatic patients that subsequently die?  First time I have seen this tbh

[Albert]

2 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

Countries entering lockdowns 1-2 weeks earlier or later is not a significant change of approach or stratergy. 

Infection mortality rate isn't 1% either. Almost everyone who is dieing is being tested for Covid. Almost every single person who goes to a hospital is being tested. Forget the fact that we have false positive tests. There are people who actually do have Covid and die but Covid will have played no role in their death. But is included in the statistics. There is no metric utilised right now to establish if Covid was actually a cause. This is being managed completely differently to the Flu. If every single person who entered the hospital or died was tested for the flu from October to March, we'd have flu deaths in the hundreds of thousands. 

Covid deaths already got revised down once already. In time (1-5 years), Covid deaths will be revised down and it appears as though they will be so, significantly.

Given pandemic grow exponentially when they're not being controlled, 1-2 weeks actually does make a huge difference. That said, that's far from the only change in the strategy, suggesting that it is only suggests that you've made no effort to do a proper one. 

As to the infection fatality rate, your claim that it's not 1% is based on literally nothing in the above. You're naively conflating the case fatality and infection fatality rates, then questioning the infection fatality estimates based on points regarding the case fatality rate. 

The current, crude case fatality rate for the disease globally is ~3%. When calculating the infection fatality rate though, we get the following issues:

1. Asymptomatic cases, reducing IFR

2. Unrecorded deaths, increases IFR

3. Unresolved infections, increases IFR

Point 1 usually gets pointed to when people question the lethality of the disease, but points 2 and 3 get outright ignored by many, yet both are highly significant. Notably, the 3rd point can be seen by looking at countries where the first wave has run its course, as most infections have as well. Countries like the UK, for example, have a case fatality rate of 9.78%. 

Point 2 is also more significant than it's press coverage, as many of the deaths from the disease has been attributed to a range of other causes at times, usually around cases that did not end up in hospital. This can be seen in data regarding excess deaths. What's funny is you gets pants on head stuff like 'dying with Covid, not of Covid'. The more data we've seen though, the greater the range of complications the disease can be, including damage to cardiac tissue and infarct. It would be interesting to see your source for suggesting that the totals will be revised down overall, given that the current weight of evidence suggests a large underestimate, as it is for virtually every major disease until after it's run its course. 

Studies taking these point all into account is how the range of 0.5-1.0% has come about. 

[Eddie]

24 minutes ago, Monty said:

Statistically speaking this is not ‘damn close’

I know someone who does not understand orders of magnitude.

[ariotofmyown]

12 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

Countries entering lockdowns 1-2 weeks earlier or later is not a significant change of approach or stratergy. 

 

You genuinely think that the only difference between, say South Korea and the UK was they locked down a couple of weeks earlier?! That really makes me want to listen to your opinions on what we should do now!

A few months back, I read interesting interview with an official from Singapore. He was surprised that we didn't follow our own pandemic plan...the same plan that they used after we shared it with them 20 or so years ago.