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3 hours ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

We have an Airbnb booked in France last week of Aug to 1st week of September. 

The owner got in touch today to ask if we would consider moving to next year as they "hoped we wouldn't go". 

They weren't offering a refund though - Airbnb standard terms are to only offer 50%.

We're thinking about it....

Wait a secound I saw something on bbc 1 this morning same sition person anwser it said yes you can still go.

If cant fly you could go by big ships or by trains by euro star but I would hold fire.

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5 hours ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

Think we've been here before.  The similarities are striking

The strain of virus that caused the pandemic, influenza A virus subtype H2N2, was a recombination of avian influenza (probably from geese) and human influenza viruses.[2][3] As it was a novel strain of the virus, there was minimal immunity in the population.[2][4]

The first cases were reported in Guizhou in late 1956[2] or February 1957,[5][6][7] and were reported in the neighboring province of Yunnan before the end of February.[8] On 17 April, The Times reported that "an influenza epidemic has affected thousands of Hong Kong residents".[4] By the end of the same month, Singapore also experienced an outbreak of the new flu, which peaked in mid-May with 680 deaths.[9] In Taiwan, 100,000 were affected by mid-May and India suffered a million cases by June. In late June, the pandemic reached the United Kingdom.[4]

By June 1957 it reached the United States, where it initially caused few infections.[3] Some of the first affected were United States Navy personnel at destroyers docked at Newport Naval Station, as well as new military recruits elsewhere.[10] The first wave peaked in October (among children who returned to school) and the second wave, in January and February 1958 among elderly people, which was more fatal.[3][11] Microbiologist Maurice Hilleman was alarmed by pictures of those affected by the virus in Hong Kong published in The New York Times. He obtained samples of the virus from a United States Navy doctor in Japan. The Public Health Service released the virus cultures to vaccine manufacturers on 12 May 1957, and a vaccine entered trials at Fort Ord on 26 July and Lowry Air Force Base on 29 July.[10] The number of deaths peaked the week ending 17 October with 600 reported in England and Wales. The vaccine was available in the same month in the United Kingdom.[4] Although it was available initially only in limited quantities,[11][4] its rapid deployment helped contain the pandemic.[3]

H2N2 influenza virus continued to circulate until 1968, when it transformed via antigenic shift into influenza A virus subtype H3N2, the cause of the 1968 influenza pandemic

In early 1958, it was estimated that 14,000 people had already died of the flu in the United Kingdom of the 9 million who became sick.[4] It caused many infections in children, spreading in schools and leading to many school closures, but was rarely fatal in children. The virus was most deadly in pregnant women, the elderly, and those with pre-existing heart and lung disease.

The first recorded instance of the outbreak appeared on 13 July 1968 in Hong Kong. (There is a possibility that this outbreak actually began in mainland China before spreading to Hong Kong, but this is unconfirmed.[6][7]) By the end of July 1968, extensive outbreaks were reported in Vietnam and Singapore. Despite the lethality of the 1957 Asian Flu in China, little improvement had been made regarding the handling of such epidemics. The Times newspaper was the first source to sound the alarm regarding this new possible pandemic.

By September 1968, the flu had reached India, the Philippines, northern Australia, and Europe. That same month, the virus entered California, carried by returning troops from the Vietnam War, but did not become widespread in the United States until December 1968. It reached Japan, Africa, and South America by 1969.[8]

In Berlin, the excessive number of deaths led to corpses being stored in subway tunnels, and in West Germany, garbage collectors had to bury the dead due to insufficient undertakers. In total, East and West Germany registered 60,000 estimated deaths. In some areas of France, half the workforce was bedridden, and manufacturing suffered large disruptions due to absenteeism. The British postal and train services were also severely disrupted.[9]

The outbreak in Hong Kong, where population density was greater than 6,000 people per square kilometre, reached maximum intensity in two weeks; it lasted six months in total from July to December 1968. Worldwide deaths from this virus peaked in December 1968 and January 1969. By that time, public health warnings[10] and virus descriptions[11] were widely issued in the scientific and medical journals.

In comparison to other pandemics of the 20th century, the Hong Kong flu yielded a low death rate.[8] The disease was allowed to spread through the population without restrictions on economic activity, until a vaccine became available four months after it started.[9]

The H3N2 virus returned during the following 1969/1970 flu season, resulting in a second, deadlier wave of deaths.[12] It remains in circulation today as a strain of the seasonal flu

 

 

Like many other people my age I caught HK Flu in 1969 Quite poorly for a week or two No lock down then either. 

They estimate that 80000 people died in the UK alone. 

Still a great year to be a Ramsfan though 

Edited by SIXTEEN AGAIN

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10 hours ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

We have an Airbnb booked in France last week of Aug to 1st week of September. 

The owner got in touch today to ask if we would consider moving to next year as they "hoped we wouldn't go". 

They weren't offering a refund though - Airbnb standard terms are to only offer 50%.

We're thinking about it....

 

8 hours ago, sage said:

Move it to next year. No brainer. Gambling on your health but also how much will be open if you go.

If the property is attached to there house I would defer out of respect.

 

I'm no expert but I would imagine that 50% refund thing would be based on you cancelling.  I bet their T&C's don't even state what happens if THEY cancel!  Worth looking into, if you aren't keen on deferring until next year?
It's clear they don't want you to go, but they don't appear to want to been seen to be the one's doing the cancelling either!
Of course, neither of you may have a choice, if travel restrictions/lockdowns etc are in place.

Obviously, if you are ok with deferring, then I'd imagine that's the best solution for all.

Ensure it's the "product" you are deferring, and not the sum paid.  No good deferring your sum paid towards next year's stay, only to find they have whacked their prices up, and expect you to pay the difference!
Equally, if YOU choose to go lower season, you may have to accept not getting a part refund?  
Also ensure you are happy with any suggested dates for next year.  Same time of year seems fair to all, but if they say you have to take it before May 21 (eg), that may not suit you.  Equally, if you want to go, or can only go, peak July/August '21, be prepared to pay a bit more purely because of the time of year/peak season.

Oh... and if you defer for a year, and Covid is still around and affecting things similar to now, make sure you will be allowed to defer your deferral... if you see what I mean!  You may not be able to go for 2 years!  

For me, a straightforward deferral for the same weeks next year... at the same price... seems the best option for all... but only if it suits all.
Second option would be to say "At this early stage, we are still hopeful, and are still intending to go ahead with the booking" (even if you don't really fancy it!) and try to "force" them into cancelling, which must surely come with a 100% refund?  It's their business, and the onus is up to them to ensure they have the necessary insurances in place for when they have to refund their customers.

Best of luck... and keep us updated.  👍

 

 

Edited by Mucker1884

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7 hours ago, B4ev6is said:

Wait a secound I saw something on bbc 1 this morning same sition person anwser it said yes you can still go.

If cant fly you could go by big ships or by trains by euro star but I would hold fire.

As I understand it, currently, you could travel on euro star or get to France by some other means but, you would be turned back by the French authorities upon arrival. Personally, unless there is some kind of second peak or even just a slow but sustained increase in infections, this will change by late August/September IMO.

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11 hours ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

We have an Airbnb booked in France last week of Aug to 1st week of September. 

The owner got in touch today to ask if we would consider moving to next year as they "hoped we wouldn't go". 

They weren't offering a refund though - Airbnb standard terms are to only offer 50%.

We're thinking about it....

Personally, I’d sit tight and wait unless they have given you a deadline regarding moving it to next year.

Depending on whereabouts in France it is (city centres are probably not a good idea) I personally wouldn’t be surprised if France is open for business again by then and the more rural areas just as safe as staying in the UK. I’m hopeful that we can get over there end of August.

i don’t know anything about Airbnb’s terms and conditions but I would imagine that if they cancel you are entitled to a full refund. 
 

Obviously, if the FCO essential travel only advice remains in force (I doubt it by then) you couldn’t go anyway but could claim on your travel insurance.

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The independent Sage group are saying that schools shouldn't open on June 1st and that reopening 2 weeks later would half the risks. Waiting until September would reduce the risks much further. They also say the tracing app needs to be in place beforehand.

I may have missed it but have the official Sage group's advice to the government been released?

We got letter from school through detailing the extraordinary lengths that the school must go too to take in more kids. I'm sure our kids would learn far more continuing with home schooling for the rest of the term, especially as the school has said it won't be teaching the curriculum either. However, they can't continue to create lessons online as they will be too busy 'teaching' their own bubble of 15 each day.

I can continue wfh anyway and my wife is not allowed to reopen her business yet. I think a partial reopening of schools for 6 weeks or so will not get the economy going and further risk another wave which will damage the economy.

Schools could extend the key worker opening to parents who need to work/can't effectively home school children.

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2 hours ago, ariotofmyown said:

The independent Sage group are saying that schools shouldn't open on June 1st and that reopening 2 weeks later would half the risks. Waiting until September would reduce the risks much further. They also say the tracing app needs to be in place beforehand.

I may have missed it but have the official Sage group's advice to the government been released?

We got letter from school through detailing the extraordinary lengths that the school must go too to take in more kids. I'm sure our kids would learn far more continuing with home schooling for the rest of the term, especially as the school has said it won't be teaching the curriculum either. However, they can't continue to create lessons online as they will be too busy 'teaching' their own bubble of 15 each day.

I can continue wfh anyway and my wife is not allowed to reopen her business yet. I think a partial reopening of schools for 6 weeks or so will not get the economy going and further risk another wave which will damage the economy.

Schools could extend the key worker opening to parents who need to work/can't effectively home school children.

Can you send a link to where SAGE have released this advice please.

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1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said:

Can you send a link to where SAGE have released this advice please.

Apologies if that wasn't clear, it isn't the official Sage group working for the government, it's the independent similar group who have got together.

The official one haven't released any comment as far as I know, but you would wonder how different their advice would be from the official ones.

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3 hours ago, ariotofmyown said:

The independent Sage group are saying that schools shouldn't open on June 1st and that reopening 2 weeks later would half the risks. Waiting until September would reduce the risks much further. They also say the tracing app needs to be in place beforehand.

I may have missed it but have the official Sage group's advice to the government been released?

We got letter from school through detailing the extraordinary lengths that the school must go too to take in more kids. I'm sure our kids would learn far more continuing with home schooling for the rest of the term, especially as the school has said it won't be teaching the curriculum either. However, they can't continue to create lessons online as they will be too busy 'teaching' their own bubble of 15 each day.

I can continue wfh anyway and my wife is not allowed to reopen her business yet. I think a partial reopening of schools for 6 weeks or so will not get the economy going and further risk another wave which will damage the economy.

Schools could extend the key worker opening to parents who need to work/can't effectively home school children.

On the Tracing App and schools - this confuses me. Primary School kids don't have phones? So what's the value of the Tracing App there or is more than it'll be compulsory for teachers to download it?

Either way - fair play you have the time to continue home schooling. We don't, and keeping my child away from other kids for 6 months (March to September) is already having a huge impact on her mental health - we're only two months in!!

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1 minute ago, rammieib said:

On the Tracing App and schools - this confuses me. Primary School kids don't have phones? So what's the value of the Tracing App there or is more than it'll be compulsory for teachers to download it?

Either way - fair play you have the time to continue home schooling. We don't, and keeping my child away from other kids for 6 months (March to September) is already having a huge impact on her mental health - we're only two months in!!

I guess the tracing app is important as can quickly identify when someone linked to the kids has symptoms or a positive test. If you discover that someone who have been close to has symptoms/a positive test, then you don't want to be sending your kid to school of there is an increased risk of them spreading it. Countries like South Korea have been all about the tracing and testing, we should be copying what they do.

Obvious it would be beneficial if kids could go back to school asap and everyone has different challenges to deal with. We really need to prevent a second wave though as best we can, else we risk resetting back to March.

This independent group of scientists are suggesting that the risk is currently too high with schools returning on 1st June.

The potential benefits of some schooling over the next 6 weeks or so don't seem big enough to me vs the risk of mass infections again.

Letting kids see other kids confined within a small social bubble seems a safer way to minimise risk whilst helping to keep kids happier.

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21 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

I guess the tracing app is important as can quickly identify when someone linked to the kids has symptoms or a positive test. If you discover that someone who have been close to has symptoms/a positive test, then you don't want to be sending your kid to school of there is an increased risk of them spreading it. Countries like South Korea have been all about the tracing and testing, we should be copying what they do.

Obvious it would be beneficial if kids could go back to school asap and everyone has different challenges to deal with. We really need to prevent a second wave though as best we can, else we risk resetting back to March.

This independent group of scientists are suggesting that the risk is currently too high with schools returning on 1st June.

The potential benefits of some schooling over the next 6 weeks or so don't seem big enough to me vs the risk of mass infections again.

Letting kids see other kids confined within a small social bubble seems a safer way to minimise risk whilst helping to keep kids happier.

Fair point about family members of the Kids. I'm not sure this App is going to be downloaded by as many people as we think - although I certainly will be doing so!!

I do feel like the evidence around the don't start it up is based around the 'We don't know' brigade whereas the evidence around the start it up is based on the 'We don't know there isn't' brigade. 

No second waves in foreign countries yet, no clear incidences of schools causing any issues. No clear evidence of community spreading in a school yet. 

I respect everyone has a different opinion - even my wife and I disagree on this one!

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5 hours ago, ariotofmyown said:

The independent Sage group are saying that schools shouldn't open on June 1st and that reopening 2 weeks later would half the risks. Waiting until September would reduce the risks much further. They also say the tracing app needs to be in place beforehand.

I may have missed it but have the official Sage group's advice to the government been released?

We got letter from school through detailing the extraordinary lengths that the school must go too to take in more kids. I'm sure our kids would learn far more continuing with home schooling for the rest of the term, especially as the school has said it won't be teaching the curriculum either. However, they can't continue to create lessons online as they will be too busy 'teaching' their own bubble of 15 each day.

I can continue wfh anyway and my wife is not allowed to reopen her business yet. I think a partial reopening of schools for 6 weeks or so will not get the economy going and further risk another wave which will damage the economy.

Schools could extend the key worker opening to parents who need to work/can't effectively home school children.

Was it not you who calculated 1 million kids could go back to school who are at childcare age? 

Freeing up how many to go to work?

Nurseries and the such who look after those age ranges in the summer should be open, too. 

So how would that not get the economy going? 

Also, I think this all shows how poor schools/councils have been in the last 60 days. 

Why now are they making lists of what they need? Why now have they started moaning about lack of toilets and equipment. 

This should have been under consideration 10 weeks a go. We all knew life would not be the same for a the foreseeable future. Just poor planning all round. Again. 

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20 minutes ago, Norman said:

Was it not you who calculated 1 million kids could go back to school who are at childcare age? 

Freeing up how many to go to work?

Nurseries and the such who look after those age ranges in the summer should be open, too. 

So how would that not get the economy going? 

Also, I think this all shows how poor schools/councils have been in the last 60 days. 

Why now are they making lists of what they need? Why now have they started moaning about lack of toilets and equipment. 

This should have been under consideration 10 weeks a go. We all knew life would not be the same for a the foreseeable future. Just poor planning all round. Again. 

Yeah, it clearly will help to get the economy going to some extent. For families where both parents have to return to an open place of work and they don't have other children in different school years, this will help. I would imagine this is way less than the million or so children though.

Is this benefit worth the increased risk of the virus coming back in a huge way? I don't think it is, especially after what the unofficial Sage advice is.

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9 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

Yeah, it clearly will help to get the economy going to some extent. For families where both parents have to return to an open place of work and they don't have other children in different school years, this will help. I would imagine this is way less than the million or so children though.

Is this benefit worth the increased risk of the virus coming back in a huge way? I don't think it is, especially after what the unofficial Sage advice is.

So we are down to families with kids all aged under 12, who are unable to look after themselves. 

Kids aged 4, 5 and 6, with those aged 9/10 also not included. 

That would make hundreds of thousands able to go back. 

That would make a huge difference. Not only to spending in the economy, but the stability of markets, the amount claiming the furlough scheme, house prices, value of the pound, spending available for services..... You could go on. 

Our economy is about to be ruined. Cuts far deeper than ever before. Job losses on a scale not seen for a long time, wage compression, house price crash, bankruptcy, austerity leading to cuts in services, healthcare, the NHS, the public sector.... 

I can't believe people don't think it's a risk worth taking. If you're not fat diabetic and old, it really isn't coming to kill you. I read you have more chance of dieing in a car crash. If you are those things, don't send your kids to school. 

 

Edited by Norman

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18 minutes ago, Norman said:

So we are down to families with kids all aged under 12, who are unable to look after themselves. 

Kids aged 4, 5 and 6, with those aged 9/10 also not included. 

That would make hundreds of thousands able to go back. 

That would make a huge difference. Not only to spending in the economy, but the stability of markets, the amount claiming the furlough scheme, house prices, value of the pound, spending available for services..... You could go on. 

Our economy is about to be ruined. Cuts far deeper than ever before. Job losses on a scale not seen for a long time, wage compression, house price crash, bankruptcy, austerity leading to cuts in services, healthcare, the NHS, the public sector.... 

I can't believe people don't think it's a risk worth taking. If you're not fat diabetic and old, it really isn't coming to kill you. I read you have more chance of dieing in a car crash. If you are those things, don't send your kids to school. 

 

Well my mum works in a school and she is not overly happy being force back and I think schools should remain shut till september and most parents are not sending kids back anyways.

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16 minutes ago, B4ev6is said:

Well my mum works in a school and she is not overly happy being force back and I think schools should remain shut till september and most parents are not sending kids back anyways.

I also suspect there are quite a few footballers who aren't overly happy about being forced back to work.  They too are probably hoping they don't have to go back to work until September.

And yet you, on the other hand, have been begging to go back to work for weeks.  Moaning that cinemas should all have remained open.

 

It just goes to show just how much this affects us all differently, and that not one solitary decision made by those in power will suit us all.  Someone somewhere will always be unhappy at each decision they make.

That's why we all need to stay strong, and learn to cope with whatever those decisions are, however they affect us!

Edited by Mucker1884

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14 minutes ago, B4ev6is said:

Not just they break up again in a few weeks anyways and parents back same situration anyways so for me very little point.

Ah!  Good point!  I'd forgotten about the big summer holidays! 
(It's been over 20 years since school holidays affected me and mine!)  😃👍

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43 minutes ago, B4ev6is said:

Well my mum works in a school and she is not overly happy being force back and I think schools should remain shut till september and most parents are not sending kids back anyways.

So you think it's safe to start football up again but not send people back to school?

Not much logic behind your thinking.

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