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1 hour ago, Tamworthram said:

They’re not going to put “cause of death Coronavirus” on the death certificate  then tell the ONS but not report it are they?

I can’t get my head around it. Maybe someone can help explain.

Yes, that's exactly it. The daily figures come from hospitals only. And what's more they lag about 3 days behind actual deaths. 

If you want to understand better, go listen to this week's Behind the Stats podcast. Highly recommend it. 

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3 minutes ago, therealhantsram said:

Very highly recommended tonight's Horizon on BBC2. 

Go watch it on iplayer. 

Explains clearly how virus mutated, how it jumped species, why children are not impacted, how to interpret some of the numbers being reported and lots lots more.

Brilliant programme. 

Just caught the end of it so I’ll watch the rest on catch up. Sadly it confirmed a vaccine is not likely for another 12 - 18 months.

My brother in law is a research chemist (or something like that). He’s part of a team working on a vaccine and he’s said the same.

 

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6 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

I'm not claiming those figures are representative of anything. Just a stark fact, mostly influenced by the people currently being tested not being representative of the general population. 

Why do you think Germany’s death rate it so low? Surely the % of deaths to infections would be similar across the board or are they protecting the high risk people better through testing? There has to be a reason.

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Just now, therealhantsram said:

Yes, that's exactly it. The daily figures come from hospitals only. And what's more they lag about 3 days behind actual deaths. 

If you want to understand better, go listen to this week's Behind the Stats podcast. Highly recommend it. 

I know they only include hospital deaths but, as I said, somewhere (BBC website?) it says non hospital deaths = just over 10%. The three day lag also doesn’t seem to account for the figures being under reported by 70%.

I’ll give the podcast a listen.

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5 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

I know they only include hospital deaths but, as I said, somewhere (BBC website?) it says non hospital deaths = just over 10%. The three day lag also doesn’t seem to account for the figures being under reported by 70%.

I’ll give the podcast a listen.

I can only assume they were talking about the lag. Since deaths double roughly every 3.5 days, but reporting lags deaths by about 2.5 days that would explain it, no? 

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11 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

Just caught the end of it so I’ll watch the rest on catch up. Sadly it confirmed a vaccine is not likely for another 12 - 18 months.

My brother in law is a research chemist (or something like that). He’s part of a team working on a vaccine and he’s said the same.

 

One sad thing I learned... They asked if you have already had the disease if you have immunity. 

The answer... For 3 months very likely, for a year probably, for longer... No one knows. 

In other words, herd immunity could be a myth. This thing might just keep coming round again and again like flu or a cold. 

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1 hour ago, Tamworthram said:

I wonder how they will find out after the crisis is over though. Cause of death is registered at the time of death not several weeks later so, I don’t see how they’re going to find a load more cases. I know deaths outside of hospitals are not included but I’ve seen somewhere (BBC website I think) that none hospital deaths account for something like 10% of total Coronavirus deaths. So, whilst tragic, that doesn’t account for the figure of 70%. Surely the ONS can only get their figures from reported cases. They’re not going to put “cause of death Coronavirus” on the death certificate  then tell the ONS but not report it are they?

I can’t get my head around it. Maybe someone can help explain.

there were several reasons. One being that that some hospitals arent able to log electronically , another one was that as further tests are developed it might turn out that some deaths arent currently logged as CV19 but are. Another one was that only deaths in hospitals were logged as CV19 amd not in residential/care homes for instance. They also extrapolated the difference a few days ago from reported to ONS figures and came up with a potential gap of 70%. 

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19 minutes ago, Van Gritters said:

Why do you think Germany’s death rate it so low? Surely the % of deaths to infections would be similar across the board or are they protecting the high risk people better through testing? There has to be a reason.

Because Germany are testing around 5x as many people as us, they identify approx 5x as many infections. 

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4 minutes ago, therealhantsram said:

Because Germany are testing around 5x as many people as us, they identify approx 5x as many infections. 

Is Germany then doing better isolation of those with infection and/or giving them some earlier treatment (e.g. oxygen but not via ventilator)?

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6 hours ago, Eddie said:

The Memsahib and I are currently in day 4 of a 84 day lockdown, because of the underlying health condition I have. To tell the truth, it hasn't really affected me because although I am semi-retired I work from home a few hours a week to pay for my thirst, and only really venture out for the wife's benefit. I have plenty of beer at home (Beers of Europe and Belgiuminabox are still operating at full capacity and I get an order in from one or the other every week or two), I love cooking, the local chemist deliver my prescriptions and my brother-in-law picks up my 'Click & Collect' orders from Tesco or Asda each week.

The wife, on the other hand, is seriously claustrophobic. For her, the isolation is a living nightmare, but she is beginning to come to terms with it a little, especially as she realises that people - thousands of people - are dying.

Was going to ask you which beer you would recomend to gargle with Eddie

Stay well,stay safe.Regards

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3 hours ago, ramit said:

i just found out that my mother has become ill with flu like symptoms.  She has been in a day program at a rest home, which was kept going even as the pandemic was raging.  To not show up would have meant she would have lost her spot, her foot in the door.  My sister has poor health, has a pacemaker, she has been going with my mother shopping a couple of times lately.  A doctor will visit mother later tonight.  i am worried sick.

Best wishes to you and your family,stay strong for all of your family

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2 hours ago, Malagaram said:

Was going to ask you which beer you would recomend to gargle with Eddie

Stay well,stay safe.Regards

Tonight's beers were as follows:

1. Bush Ambree

2. Gulden Draak 9000

3 Kulmbacher Eisbock

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9 hours ago, Eddie said:

Tonight's beers were as follows:

1. Bush Ambree

2. Gulden Draak 9000

3 Kulmbacher Eisbock

Bush Ambree = 12-13% alcohol

Gulden Draak 9000 = 10-11% alcohol

Kulmbacker Eisbock = 9.2%

Session beers Eddie? ? 

The german beer is tame in comparison to the other two.

 

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Don't think people are listening to the stay at home message still.

Went for my daily loop round Littleover and the number of cars on the Burton Road were ridiculous. At least twice, probably three times as many as last Saturday at the same time. Obviously some will be essential journeys but the  number of cars with 3/4 people in was worrying. 

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22 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

No one is talking about Belgium much even though their deaths per million of population is third worst behind Italy and Spain.

Another 496 have lost their lives in Belgium - a country with a population 1/6 that of the UK. So, that would like 3000 in a single day in the UK.

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18 minutes ago, JoetheRam said:

Don't think people are listening to the stay at home message still.

Went for my daily loop round Littleover and the number of cars on the Burton Road were ridiculous. At least twice, probably three times as many as last Saturday at the same time. Obviously some will be essential journeys but the  number of cars with 3/4 people in was worrying. 

Not too sure why people are getting so hung up on what others are doing.

If you're following the guidelines, and obviously wont mix with the sort of people that flout the guidelines, you've got nothing to worry about.

I know what they are doing is wrong but who exactly are they going to be infecting?

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