Coronavirus

[G STAR RAM]

5 minutes ago, Wolfie20 said:

.....only and unless they happen to support your own point of view

Not sure if that is aimed at me or not?

If it is, in my defence when I said earlier on in the year that Covid 19 deaths were being overstated, I used the same ONS excess death rate stats to hold my hands up and admit I was wrong. 

[Stive Pesley]

45 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Second week running that ONS recorded weekly deaths are below the 5 year average.

Figures for the week ending 26 June 2020 show the deaths were 314 below the 5 year average despite 606 Covid 19 deaths being recorded.

Wow - that's an interesting stat isn't it? I guess that's an unexpected side-effect of lockdown. Must be the proportion of deaths that just result from people being "out and about doing stuff" that is down?

[Eddie]

1 hour ago, SchtivePesley said:

Wow - that's an interesting stat isn't it? I guess that's an unexpected side-effect of lockdown. Must be the proportion of deaths that just result from people being "out and about doing stuff" that is down?

It's also quite possible that some of those whose number would have been up in June were actually tipped over the edge a few months earlier.

[Eddie]

Wear a fricking mask when you can, please.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53320155

[1of4]

ONS statistics show that the death rate is below the five year average.  This must prove that by keeping people isolated, prevented the spread of all contagious diseases, no just the coronavirus. It doesn't prove that the coronavirus isn't as serious as some people have tried to claim.

If the death rate for seasonal flu was at it's normal level, what would the death rates be for coronavirus if there had been no lockdown?

We've already seen the re-lockdown of Leicester in the UK along with similar events in other countries. So even with the lowering of the number of deaths due to coronavirus, we are a long way from beating this pandemic.

If we want to go by statistics alone, a current one shows that many more people than first thought have had the virus without showing any symptoms. Does this mean we should abandon the social distancing policy and go back to the original one of heard immunity and survival of the fittest.

[FindernRam]

2 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

People who would have died later on in the year were finished off earlier by Covid 19.

A grim way of looking at it but possibly true. A good friend passed away with the virus but was terminally ill already. May have lasted a few weeks longer without it. 

[Gaspode]

11 minutes ago, 1of4 said:

....This must prove that by keeping people isolated, prevented the spread of all contagious diseases, no just the coronavirus.....

You do know that people also die from other things such as road traffic accidents, etc?....

[G STAR RAM]

47 minutes ago, 1of4 said:

ONS statistics show that the death rate is below the five year average.  This must prove that by keeping people isolated, prevented the spread of all contagious diseases, no just the coronavirus. It doesn't prove that the coronavirus isn't as serious as some people have tried to claim.

And we are also told cancer deaths are likely to be up as people do not go for treatment or to be diagnosed.

I've seen false rumours doing the rounds that suicides are up 200%, although that stat cannot be supported I would be surprised if it is not up significantly.

So despite other deaths being up, despite there being 606 Covid related deaths, the weekly rate is still 314 or roughly 3% below average...very strange.

Never seen anybody claim coronavirus isnt serious.

Look forward to seeing the stats that lockdown has stopped other life ending diseases from being transmitted, as you have tried to claim.

[G STAR RAM]

45 minutes ago, Gaspode said:

You do know that people also die from other things such as road traffic accidents, etc?....

Seen a lot of people using the RTA death line. On average about 35 people die a week in RTAs. Hardly a number that makes a dent in the weekly death statistics.

[Gaspode]

1 minute ago, G STAR RAM said:

Seen a lot of people using the RTA death line. On average about 35 people die a week in RTAs. Hardly a number that makes a dent in the weekly death statistics.

I'm not arguing the stats, but the 'must prove' comment is clearly gibberish....

[1of4]

1 hour ago, Gaspode said:

You do know that people also die from other things such as road traffic accidents, etc?....

If the number of death due to RTAs came down due less traffic on the roads during lockdown. It's probably give people a good argument for the need for better public transport so reducing the amount of cars on the roads.

[Eddie]

2 hours ago, 1of4 said:

ONS statistics show that the death rate is below the five year average. ....

For the last two weeks following 15 consecutive weeks when they were above the average. It proves nothing yet.

[G STAR RAM]

14 hours ago, Eddie said:

For the last two weeks following 15 consecutive weeks when they were above the average. It proves nothing yet.

It proves we are heading in the right direction with what we have been doing, and if a new wave occurs shows us what measures are like to bring infection rate down again.

With significant Covid deaths recorded in both of the last 2 weeks too, I would say it indicates that it would appear that deaths caused directly by Covid are being overstated.

[Eddie]

5 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

It proves we are heading in the right direction with what we have been doing, and if a new wave occurs shows us what measures are like to bring infection rate down again.

With significant Covid deaths recorded in both of the last 2 weeks too, I would say it indicates that it would appear that deaths caused directly by Covid are being overstated.

It is impossible to quantify how many deaths are caused directly by the novel coronavirus, because it accentuates other conditions. That's why, from the start, death tolls have been published as "with COVID-19" and not "of COVID-19". The words 'of' and 'with' are nut mutually interchangeable - that's the whole point. It's also why extremely vulnerable people are still following scientific advice and 'sheltering' until at least 1 August.

[ariotofmyown]

I just did a quick bit of analysis of the deaths this year vs 5 year average.

Between 17th Jan and 13-Mar this year, weekly deaths were down 579 on average vs 5 year view.

Week of 26 Jun was down 314 vs 5 year, so we seem to have returned to same sort of levels we had in early 2020. 

That is certainly good news, but not really any evidence yet that people who were going to die have just died earlier.

Taking the period of 27th March to 29th May (weeks when deaths vs 5 year average were over 1k), then we saw 58k more deaths vs the 5 year average, an increase of 72%.

Deaths are going to have to drop a lot to support the idea that people just died a bit earlier than expected. 

If Covid doesn't come back, I guess we'll see a long tail of reduced deaths, which will mean that lots of people died much earlier than they otherwise would have.

Btw the ONS website is great for downloading data from!

[Sith Happens]

49 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

I just did a quick bit of analysis of the deaths this year vs 5 year average.

Between 17th Jan and 13-Mar this year, weekly deaths were down 579 on average vs 5 year view.

Week of 26 Jun was down 314 vs 5 year, so we seem to have returned to same sort of levels we had in early 2020. 

That is certainly good news, but not really any evidence yet that people who were going to die have just died earlier.

Taking the period of 27th March to 29th May (weeks when deaths vs 5 year average were over 1k), then we saw 58k more deaths vs the 5 year average, an increase of 72%.

Deaths are going to have to drop a lot to support the idea that people just died a bit earlier than expected. 

If Covid doesn't come back, I guess we'll see a long tail of reduced deaths, which will mean that lots of people died much earlier than they otherwise would have.

Btw the ONS website is great for downloading data from!

I don't see any other outcome than ther being significant excess deaths over a longer term period myself.

I wonder how those, including those on this very thread that were claiming it was a big fuss about nothng feel about it now, do they stand by their view? I know one poster who was very vocal it wasn't seems to have been fairly absent since it escalated, i hope thats just because they couldnt argue their case anymore and nothing more.

I think we could still be analysing figures in several years time on this.

[Stagtime]

Well that’s one way of getting the message across?

 

[ariotofmyown]

Is the reluctance to enforce mask wearing indoors because pubs won't be able to remain open unless they have outdoor areas?

[Tamworthram]

1 hour ago, ariotofmyown said:

Is the reluctance to enforce mask wearing indoors because pubs won't be able to remain open unless they have outdoor areas?

You could always sip your real ale through a straw?

[TimRam]