Chasing the playoffs

[The Scarlet Pimpernel]

10 hours ago, Ambitious said:

Absolutely no doubt about it now: a nine point deduction leaves us inside the bottom 3 and that is the BEST case scenario if we're found to be guilty. We have an inability to win away from home regardless of the opposition and only face one other team outside the top half at home. 

I don't know if it's quite time to panic, but the severity of the situation needs to be acknowledged. We could well have an academy crowned European Champions in the same season as our first team is relegated to League One. It has to be said that would be fairly remarkable. 

But that's just it about this division. Any team can beat anyone on any particular day. If we have top half teams to play or bottom half it makes no difference. Very unpredictable.

[Rammy03]

We're going to go on a good run and win 9 of our remaining games, drawing 1 and losing 1. Playing the teams above us will work in our favour

[Van der MoodHoover]

6 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

I see you keep saying 9 points minimum, where exactly are you getting this from?

I think because that was the number Birmingham got docked and if you reversed out the stadium sale our shortfall would look similar to theirs.

But the rules are very far from clear - seems to start from a 12 pt deduction and then

a) reduce that number depending on the SCALE of the shortfall relative to the £(39)m allowance and

b) increase that number up to a maximum of 21 pts if the breach is "aggravated"....whatever that means.

[Ghost of Clough]

17 hours ago, RamNut said:

Not really.  liverpool have been remarkably consistent in the selection of the league team. 

8 outfield players have started 22 of the 27 league games (80%), the keeper started 19 of 27, and two more have started 13 of 27.

liverpool know their best 11. 

Q How many of our players have started 80% of league games?

Answer 2 

that says it all. 

Probably because we haven't had many players, who we consider to be in our best 11, available for at least 28 games (missing at least 7).

1. Anya has missed all 35 games due to injury
2. Keogh missed 27 games due to injury
3. Rooney unavailable for 25 games.
4. Huddlestone missed 23 games due to injury
5. Evans has missed about 20 games due to injury.
6. Bennett injured himself playing Preston and missed the next 12 games before going on loan to Millwall.
7. Forsyth missed the first half of the season as he was building up his fitness after suffering another serious knee injury
8. Shinnie missed 11 games due to injury
9. Bielik suspended/injured for the last 10 games. Missed a couple with knocks beforehand.
10. Wisdom injured or building up match fitness for the first 10 games.
11. Paterson and Dowell left at the start of January meaning they couldn't play in the last 10 games.
12. Clarke injured for 8 games
13. Holmes has missed 7 games due to injury
14. Bogle missed 7 games due to injury and an eye infection
15. Buchanan has been injured for large periods
16. Marriott and Martin have struggled with minor issues.

Only Roos, Hamer, Waghorn, Davies, Malone, Bird, Knight, Sibley, Lawrence, Whittaker, and Jozefzoon (may have had small knocks) who have been available for more than 80% of games.

[Tyler Durden]

46 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Probably because we haven't had many players, who we consider to be in our best 11, available for at least 28 games (missing at least 7).

1. Anya has missed all 35 games due to injury
2. Keogh missed 27 games due to injury
3. Rooney unavailable for 25 games.
4. Huddlestone missed 23 games due to injury
5. Evans has missed about 20 games due to injury.
6. Bennett injured himself playing Preston and missed the next 12 games before going on loan to Millwall.
7. Forsyth missed the first half of the season as he was building up his fitness after suffering another serious knee injury
8. Shinnie missed 11 games due to injury
9. Bielik suspended/injured for the last 10 games. Missed a couple with knocks beforehand.
10. Wisdom injured or building up match fitness for the first 10 games.
11. Paterson and Dowell left at the start of January meaning they couldn't play in the last 10 games.
12. Clarke injured for 8 games
13. Holmes has missed 7 games due to injury
14. Bogle missed 7 games due to injury and an eye infection
15. Buchanan has been injured for large periods
16. Marriott and Martin have struggled with minor issues.

Only Roos, Hamer, Waghorn, Davies, Malone, Bird, Knight, Sibley, Lawrence, Whittaker, and Jozefzoon (may have had small knocks) who have been available for more than 80% of games.

Number 1 on the list....if Anya hadn't been injured does it therefore follow that he would be an automatic starter and so on. 

It's invalid to make this assumption.

[Ghost of Clough]

14 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

Number 1 on the list....if Anya hadn't been injured does it therefore follow that he would be an automatic starter and so on. 

It's invalid to make this assumption.

I doubt he'd have even made the bench.

Bogle, Keogh, Clarke, Bielik, Holmes, Rooney make up more than half of what most fans would have considered to be the best 11 yet have missed large chunks of the season

[BondJovi]

34 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

Number 1 on the list....if Anya hadn't been injured does it therefore follow that he would be an automatic starter and so on. 

It's invalid to make this assumption.

I think you are being somewhat pedantic to the overall post.

Of those actually available for 80% plus of matches. 2 are GKs, 4 academy players. Davies is 34 after having missed nearly all of last season. Malone is highly unpredictable, likewise the disappointing Jozefzoon. That leaves Waghorn and Lawrence to build a team around. How can a spine of a team form from that?

[Tyler Durden]

33 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I doubt he'd have even made the bench.

Bogle, Keogh, Clarke, Bielik, Holmes, Rooney make up more than half of what most fans would have considered to be the best 11 yet have missed large chunks of the season

Yes absolutely I just didn't think that it was appropriate to put Anya as number 1 on your list as quite rightly they wouldn't have been part of our best 11 even if he had been fit and available.

 

[Tyler Durden]

11 minutes ago, BondJovi said:

I think you are being somewhat pedantic to the overall post.

Of those actually available for 80% plus of matches. 2 are GKs, 4 academy players. Davies is 34 after having missed nearly all of last season. Malone is highly unpredictable, likewise the disappointing Jozefzoon. That leaves Waghorn and Lawrence to build a team around. How can a spine of a team form from that?

Refer to reply as above 

[angieram]

26 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

Yes absolutely I just didn't think that it was appropriate to put Anya as number 1 on your list as quite rightly they wouldn't have been part of our best 11 even if he had been fit and available.

 

I think the list is in descending order of number of games missed rather than relative importance to the team? 

[G STAR RAM]

3 hours ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

I think because that was the number Birmingham got docked and if you reversed out the stadium sale our shortfall would look similar to theirs.

But the rules are very far from clear - seems to start from a 12 pt deduction and then

a) reduce that number depending on the SCALE of the shortfall relative to the £(39)m allowance and

b) increase that number up to a maximum of 21 pts if the breach is "aggravated"....whatever that means.

Not sure why you would reverse out the stadium sale?

Has our ground got no value?

[jono]

While it is mathematically possible there is always a chance, so while that remains the case I’ll still say play offs are the target 

but realistically it’s looking like mid table and hoping for a good result game by game. I’d like 3 more points on the board now ..which I think takes us to the points total from which no one has been relegated. From there we can introduce young uns even more, try some stuff and generally play with the Lego bricks we’ve got. 

[Van der MoodHoover]

1 minute ago, G STAR RAM said:

Not sure why you would reverse out the stadium sale?

Has our ground got no value?

No, but that transaction allegedly "created" £39m of value because Mel's other company paid dcfc £80m for an asset that dcfc had valued at £41m.

So if the efl decided that the transaction was somehow invalid, then they would reduce our profits over the final accounts period by that 39m....

[Ghost of Clough]

1 minute ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

No, but that transaction allegedly "created" £39m of value because Mel's other company paid dcfc £80m for an asset that dcfc had valued at £41m.

So if the efl decided that the transaction was somehow invalid, then they would reduce our profits over the final accounts period by that 39m....

We still sold the stadium. Worst case is that the profit on the stadium is adjusted to a new figure. It won’t be ruled out completely. 

[G STAR RAM]

16 minutes ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

No, but that transaction allegedly "created" £39m of value because Mel's other company paid dcfc £80m for an asset that dcfc had valued at £41m.

So if the efl decided that the transaction was somehow invalid, then they would reduce our profits over the final accounts period by that 39m....

£41m is what was shown in the accounts from memory.

The ground was last valued at £52m (once again from memory) and that was before MM invested in improving it.

If the EFL wanted to reduce our profit they would need to get the ground valued as at the date we sold it.