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Chasing the playoffs


StruttsParkRam

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After the whole preseason debacle, joiners gate, efl sanctions and other off field bits & bobs I think a top 10 finish would be a real achievement.

Blooded a lot of youngsters who will be better for it next season, Cocu will have worked out who he does or doesnt want for next season and will have plenty of time to prepare for next season. Already got 1 new player through the door.

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14 minutes ago, Theres’s Only Wan Chope said:

We are in a playoff race as much as Crystal Palace or Newcastle are in a champions league race. I’m slightly concerned about relegation. Wasn’t before but put away form is truly awful. We may be get sucked in. 

50 points would see us stay up. I find it incredibly unlikely that we’ll finish on less than than considering we’re already on 45. 

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8 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

50 points would see us stay up. I find it incredibly unlikely that we’ll finish on less than than considering we’re already on 45. 

I agree. Unlikely but with a possible points deduction it could be a worry. Also imagine a scenario which could easily happen - we don’t pick another point up away from home. Normally that would be a ridiculous idea but with our form who knows! 
Maybe that is a bit doom and gloom. I think we will get to around 60 points to be honest. Just I noticed the gap has become a bit smaller tonight. 

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26 minutes ago, Theres’s Only Wan Chope said:

We are in a playoff race as much as Crystal Palace or Newcastle are in a champions league race. I’m slightly concerned about relegation. Wasn’t before but put away form is truly awful. We may be get sucked in. 

We are the same amount of points from the playoffs as we are from relegation. If you don't think we are in the playoff race (we aren't) then we aren't in a relegation battle either. Our away form has been poop all season - it's not a new development - we have enough home games left to keep us up.

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1 minute ago, GenBr said:

We are the same amount of points from the playoffs as we are from relegation. If you don't think we are in the playoff race (we aren't) then we aren't in a relegation battle either. Our away form has been poop all season - it's not a new development - we have enough home games left to keep us up.

You’re right. To be honest I got the table wrong- I thought 22nd place was on 37 points. 

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19 minutes ago, Andicis said:

Realistically we needed to beat Luton, you can't be dropping points there and expect to be challenging.

Definitely, by Bristol and Huddersfield I meant that’s the point we had too much catching up to do.

If you look at some of the games we’ve lost this season we should easily be another 9/12 points better off, but I guess that’s the Championship. 

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3 minutes ago, Mckram said:

If you look at some of the games we’ve lost this season we should easily be another 9/12 points better off, but I guess that’s the Championship. 

All teams could say that though. After about two thirds of the season gone all of those could and should haves will have become equalised and the league table a fair reflection of where teams should be on merit.

 

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I think it was losing to Bristol that finally killed the playoffs for me. If we’d beaten them and got some better results on the back of that, we could be in and around the top 6. Just want to see an improvement in play, further development of the youngsters, and for Forest to mess it up in the playoffs. 

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We need to beat Leeds and Forest. Aside from that, we're looking down the barrel of a point deduction between 9-21 points so we need to focus on staying up. 

9 points - we should stay up. 2 points ahead of Wigan, although they do have a game in hand, you would expect us to keep ahead of them on points between now and the end of the season. 

12 points - we should stay up. 1 point behind Wigan, level on points with Luton, but the same applies as above. 

15 points - difficult situation. 4 points behind Wigan, who would also have a game in hand on us. We would also be bottom of the league. 

18 points - extremely difficult; great escape territory. Bottom of the league, 7 points behind Wigan.  

21 points - absolutely no chance. 10 points behind WIgan, who would have a game in hand, with 11 games remaining. 

Of course we're not sure when this point deduction will come into play either - Birmingham was punished at the end of March last season. 

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6 hours ago, Ambitious said:

We need to beat Leeds and Forest. Aside from that, we're looking down the barrel of a point deduction between 9-21 points so we need to focus on staying up. 

9 points - we should stay up. 2 points ahead of Wigan, although they do have a game in hand, you would expect us to keep ahead of them on points between now and the end of the season. 

12 points - we should stay up. 1 point behind Wigan, level on points with Luton, but the same applies as above. 

15 points - difficult situation. 4 points behind Wigan, who would also have a game in hand on us. We would also be bottom of the league. 

18 points - extremely difficult; great escape territory. Bottom of the league, 7 points behind Wigan.  

21 points - absolutely no chance. 10 points behind WIgan, who would have a game in hand, with 11 games remaining. 

Of course we're not sure when this point deduction will come into play either - Birmingham was punished at the end of March last season. 

Awarded 21 points because the EFL ducked up and derailed our season with false accusations and started deducting the points at source by giving us some crap refs and we go up in 2nd place.

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8 hours ago, Theres’s Only Wan Chope said:

I agree. Unlikely but with a possible points deduction it could be a worry. Also imagine a scenario which could easily happen - we don’t pick another point up away from home. Normally that would be a ridiculous idea but with our form who knows! 
Maybe that is a bit doom and gloom. I think we will get to around 60 points to be honest. Just I noticed the gap has become a bit smaller tonight. 

Despite our results away, we've consistently shown playoff form overall for 2 months now.

The gap to bottom 3 increased by 1 point, and the gap to top 6 decreased by 1 point last night. 

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22 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Despite our results away, we've consistently shown playoff form overall for 2 months now.

The gap to bottom 3 increased by 1 point, and the gap to top 6 decreased by 1 point last night. 

January yes but we’ve taken 2 points from last 4 matches. Or 5 points from 5. Relegation form. Looking at the table again, we have enough points to keep us out of trouble as long as we don’t get a points deduction. If we do, we could end up relegated. 

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8 hours ago, Tyler Durden said:

All teams could say that though. After about two thirds of the season gone all of those could and should haves will have become equalised and the league table a fair reflection of where teams should be on merit.

 

That’s what I meant by I guess it’s the championship. Anybody can beat anyone on their day and all will experience what we have. 

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The Red Button commentator last night kept going on about our play-off hopes disappearing, but in the same breath was saying QPR were consolidating their position in the Championship, with no mention of play-off ambition. Yet both sides are mid table with only a point or so difference.

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If my calculations are correct, taking into account who each teams play, by the time we kick off against Blackburn:

Best case scenario = 8 points off play offs and 13 points off relegation zone

Worst case scenario = 17 points off play offs and 5 off relegation zone

Most likely something like= 14 points off play offs and 8 off relegation zone.

The most points any team has achieved but still been relegated over the last 10 years is 54 (Peterborough 2012/13). Average (mean) is 44.

So, I reckon, you can forget about play offs (other than in your dreams) and we should avoid relegation (assuming no points deduction) but it might get a bit squeaky bottom time given the run in we have.

 

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