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Ellafella

What's Your Priority to Strengthen the Side (2)?

What's Your Priority to Strengthen the Side (2)?  

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After some technical advice from Numero Uno, I decided to turn this into a more scientific poll.

Whilst I appreciate that we have to utilise the Academy system more, I think that we'd still be wise to bring in an established player through the loan/transfer system. I appreciate also that WR is joining in January, but I'd like to see what the consensus of opinion is. 

Please just cast your vote once. If you tick "Other" please enlarge on your thinking below:...

Edited by rynny
Fix poll to allow only 1 choice

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I would like a box to box midfielder, someone with energy to stop us getting overrun in midfield when defending, but also help out the attack when needed. 

They don't have to be an attacking midfielder as I imagine Rooney will play that role when he arrives and in terms of wingers I'd like to see us move to a system where the full backs provide most of the width.

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38 minutes ago, PodgeyRam said:

I would like a box to box midfielder, someone with energy to stop us getting overrun in midfield when defending, but also help out the attack when needed. 

They don't have to be an attacking midfielder as I imagine Rooney will play that role when he arrives and in terms of wingers I'd like to see us move to a system where the full backs provide most of the width.

That's Knight for me.

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Weakest spot in the first team is on the wings but one of our more promising areas within the academy. 
Lacking depth at CB - especially past this season. Clarke back to Brighton, Davies our of contract, Keogh back after missing a whole season and Bielik back to DM. We’ll need 2 new signings here (1 hopefully in Jan). 
AM - Holmes, Knight and Dowell available (as well as options such as Paterson as a second striker). Sibley coming through and Rooney arriving in January so I think we’ll be well stocked. 
GK - give Roos the season. Then see if he’s developed enough over the season. 

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16 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Weakest spot in the first team is on the wings but one of our more promising areas within the academy. 
Lacking depth at CB - especially past this season. Clarke back to Brighton, Davies our of contract, Keogh back after missing a whole season and Bielik back to DM. We’ll need 2 new signings here (1 hopefully in Jan). 
AM - Holmes, Knight and Dowell available (as well as options such as Paterson as a second striker). Sibley coming through and Rooney arriving in January so I think we’ll be well stocked. 
GK - give Roos the season. Then see if he’s developed enough over the season. 

Dowell not getting a look in at the minute though says a lot when knight comes on instead of him Saturday... wouldn’t be surprised to see him go back in jan..

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2019-09-17-ch-ad.thumb.png.435ebe264205bf0a5ab8db5545d22927.png2019-09-17-ch-att.thumb.png.96032086bd39bf07646d55e08d1e098c.png2019-09-17-ch-def.thumb.png.1680a7743699902780ae90169315cffc.png2019-09-17-ch-eg.thumb.png.4a46f40d793a454fa496d933f8e5eb43.png

 

It's interesting that after just over 100 replies, the most popular priority is for a winger (29%), closely followed by an attacking midfielder (28%). This is interesting because the scatterplots reproduced above from Ben Mayhew's excellent Experimental 3-6-1 website show that on average:

1. Derby face more shots against them (on average per game) than they take at the opposition's goal.

2. They face an average of 14.5 shots per game and concede a goal on average every 10th shot.

3. In terms of attacking, Derby take on average 12 shots for every goal scored, and average just under 12 shots per match. Interestingly, Derby are slightly over-performing on Expected goals, with a creation rate of 1.5, but an actual rate of 1.7.

One of the values of the Experimental 3-6-1 site is that it enables us to "benchmark" against other Championship sides; Ben has created "norms" for the profiles and as things stand, Derby's profile is of a team that will finish between the bottom 50% and bottom 25% of Championship sides. Ben Mayhew suggests that Derby's issue seems to be in defence ("Derby‘s struggles appear to be down to their permissive defence, as they’ve looked pretty strong going forward"); however, I happen to think the problem lies in midfield (I do of course have the advantage over Ben of having watched Derby's games this season). I think that this was strongly evidenced against B'ham on Saturday. They seemed to be able to power through us in midfield almost at will and the stats show they had 17 shots to our 7. 

None of this is conclusive of course; we are a "work in progress"; our system under Phillip may be about the absorption of pressure followed by quick break-away attack which was the case against B'ham; but at present, I am uneasy with the lack of true possession and I think we need a box-to-box midfielder, who can win possession and take the game forward. At present our deep-lying "quarter-back" CDM system, seems to confine us geographically to our defensive third, and I think we will continue to face high pressing teams who will gain success by dispossessing us in that area.

All just my view based on some evidence; what do you think?

 

 

 

 

 

 

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18 hours ago, Ellafella said:

It's interesting that after just over 100 replies, the most popular priority is for a winger (29%), closely followed by an attacking midfielder (28%). This is interesting because the scatterplots reproduced above from Ben Mayhew's excellent Experimental 3-6-1 website show that on average:

1. Derby face more shots against them (on average per game) than they take at the opposition's goal.

2. They face an average of 14.5 shots per game and concede a goal on average every 10th shot.

3. In terms of attacking, Derby take on average 12 shots for every goal scored, and average just under 12 shots per match. Interestingly, Derby are slightly over-performing on Expected goals, with a creation rate of 1.5, but an actual rate of 1.7.

One of the values of the Experimental 3-6-1 site is that it enables us to "benchmark" against other Championship sides; Ben has created "norms" for the profiles and as things stand, Derby's profile is of a team that will finish between the bottom 50% and bottom 25% of Championship sides. Ben Mayhew suggests that Derby's issue seems to be in defence ("Derby‘s struggles appear to be down to their permissive defence, as they’ve looked pretty strong going forward"); however, I happen to think the problem lies in midfield (I do of course have the advantage over Ben of having watched Derby's games this season). I think that this was strongly evidenced against B'ham on Saturday. They seemed to be able to power through us in midfield almost at will and the stats show they had 17 shots to our 7. 

None of this is conclusive of course; we are a "work in progress"; our system under Phillip may be about the absorption of pressure followed by quick break-away attack which was the case against B'ham; but at present, I am uneasy with the lack of true possession and I think we need a box-to-box midfielder, who can win possession and take the game forward. At present our deep-lying "quarter-back" CDM system, seems to confine us geographically to our defensive third, and I think we will continue to face high pressing teams who will gain success by dispossessing us in that area.

All just my view based on some evidence; what do you think?

First of all, I love their visualization of data! So simple and clear.

Work in process indeed. I think the answer can be found from the bigger picture, this time from ending contracts as there is teamful of those (yet again).

Contract ending summer 2020, youngster is not included as I don't know about those:

GK: Carson, Hamer

Defense: Clarke, Davies, Forsyth

Midfield: Hudds, Anya, Thorne, Dowell

Forwards: Paterson, Bennett, Martin

Interesting to see does any of them earn a new contract. If all of them are going to leave, that would leave us with the team of (brackets for secondary position):

GK: Roos, Ravas, Mitchell

RB: Bogle, Wisdom

CB: Evans, Buchanan, (Bielik, Wisdom)................................................................Keogh.

LB: Lowe, Malone

DM: Bielik, Shinnie, (Evans)

CM: Holmes, Knight, Sibley, Bird, (Rooney)

LW: Josefzoon, Lawrence, Mitchell-Lawson

RW: (Waghorn, Holmes, Josefzoon)

CF: Rooney, Waghorn, Marriott, Whittaker

Purely based on numbers, we will be short of centrebacks (especially if Bielik is seen as replacement for Hudds and Keogh is 15 months out) and we don't have proper RW at all. I'd say, fullbacks are the only positions we don't need to care about. Rest could do with some strengthening, of course depending on youngster's development. I'd also be very disappointed to go to season with such inexperienced midfield. If Rooney takes one place from there, then it's completely different situation again. Players like Bielik, Rooney and Holmes gives us opportunity to keep the squad size smaller as they are good enough on their secondary position as well. 

Interesting transfer windows ahead, once again. Actually, silly season could start already. I've had enough of the games and off-pitch drama, I love the transfer windows way more. Bring it on!

Edited by Dimmu
added Wisdom as a CB

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Accidentally clicked the wrong option on the poll, however for me I would still be looking for a new goalkeeper as a priority.

Clearly we are lacking wingers, however should Cocu opt to play Bogle and Lowe as wing backs, that may mitigate the need for wingers as it currently stands..I would still be after one or two in January though.

Centre backs. With Keogh out, and Clarke and Davies not been the quickest players, we should be looking for a pacy ball-playing CB. It would be interesting to see if Cocu could give a fit Andre Wisdom a new lease of life at CB (as he played for RB Salzburg). This would also allow us to push Bielik back into midfield.

That leaves GK to me as a priority.  From my point of view, Roos, whilst a decent GK, is one player we should be looking to improve on and, until we have a commanding presence between the sticks, I'm not sure our defence will be comfortable.

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I think the emphasis needs to be on a winger that can impact games even when things aren't going his way. Lawrence and Bennett have effectively ended their career here, so I would focus energy there. We then need to look towards replacing Keogh which is the most difficult job. It's very unlikely we will find a player with the same level of consistency, if not the ability. It would then be a central midfielder, for me, but we have Bird, Sibley and Knight coming through the academy. GK following on from them, but Roos isn't actually bad. I knew Wembley would be the end of him. We could do with 2x wingers and 2x CBs in all honesty. 

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Cant wait till summer, a whole change in culture within the club

 

Think we will change to a 4-2-3-1 team/4-3-3 (when defending)

Martin up front with Rooney playing in AM

We will need 2 new keepers (think roos will leave), 2 new cbs (davies contract ending and clarke back to brighton) and 2 new cms (huddlestone contract ends and dowell leaves ), 2 new wingers too (one if we sign paterson permanantly)

Whole new spine....

 

 

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I’d ideally like to see another:

GK- Roos is better at playing out of the back than Carson but he doesn’t fill me with confidence because he flaps at crosses and causes anxiety in the defence

Rb- Squad right back player so we won’t have to play Lowe out of position if Bogle is injured, I know we have Wisdom but this ‘current’ Wisdom doesn’t suit a team trying to play progressive football

2 CBS- Goes without saying, Davies is our only fit CB who is ours rather than an on loan, and he’s old so we need at least two fresh ones. Someone like Michael hector would be good

2 CMs- Ideally two centre midfielders with bags of energy to complement Bielik long term.

2 wingers- Two starting wingers with bags of quality will be needed if we eventually want to get promoted.

 

It goes without saying this won’t be able to all be achieved in 1 transfer window but this should be the template for the next 2-3 transfer windows and gradually introduce more u23 players alongside these new signings. In the mean time, get the basic structure and philosophy in place so we save time having to teach them in the future and a make a real push for promotion when these new players arrive. This isn’t a short term fix

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On 01/10/2019 at 22:32, Dimmu said:

 

Contract ending summer 2020, youngster is not included as I don't know about those:

GK: Carson, Hamer

Defense: Clarke, Davies, Forsyth

Midfield: Hudds, Anya, Thorne, Dowell

Forwards: Paterson, Bennett, Martin

Interesting to see does any of them earn a new contract. If all of them are going to leave, that would leave us with the team of (brackets for secondary position):

GK: Roos, Ravas, Mitchell

RB: Bogle, Wisdom

CB: Evans, Buchanan, (Bielik, Wisdom)................................................................Keogh.

LB: Lowe, Malone, Buchanan

DM: Bielik, Shinnie, Bird (Evans)

CM: Holmes, Knight, Sibley, Bird, (Rooney)

LW: Josefzoon, Lawrence, Mitchell-Lawson

RW: Whittaker, Mitchell-Lawson (Waghorn, Holmes, Josefzoon),

CF: Rooney, Waghorn, Marriott, Whittaker

Added some players to positions they regularly play(ed)

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On 30/09/2019 at 21:13, Ellafella said:

None of this is conclusive of course; we are a "work in progress"; our system under Phillip may be about the absorption of pressure followed by quick break-away attack which was the case against B'ham; but at present, I am uneasy with the lack of true possession and I think we need a box-to-box midfielder, who can win possession and take the game forward. At present our deep-lying "quarter-back" CDM system, seems to confine us geographically to our defensive third, and I think we will continue to face high pressing teams who will gain success by dispossessing us in that area.

All just my view based on some evidence; what do you think?

How do I change my answer?!?!?! I automatically selected winger when the answer is (and has been since we lost Thorne to his first injury) a proper defensive midfielder - One who can actually tackle

I think Holmes and Paterson are both pretty box-to-box - And I suspect Bielik is more that than a deep lying tackler

I love Huddlestone (even after the last couple of weeks) but we need a proper destroyer in there - Someone like Eustace was, who will hold position in front of the defence, stop shots from the edge of the box and give the defence some protection - A player like that frees up the 2 CMs ahead of him as their tracking back becomes less crucial and more 'nice to have'

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59 minutes ago, cheron85 said:

How do I change my answer?!?!?! I automatically selected winger when the answer is (and has been since we lost Thorne to his first injury) a proper defensive midfielder - One who can actually tackle

I think Holmes and Paterson are both pretty box-to-box - And I suspect Bielik is more that than a deep lying tackler

I love Huddlestone (even after the last couple of weeks) but we need a proper destroyer in there - Someone like Eustace was, who will hold position in front of the defence, stop shots from the edge of the box and give the defence some protection - A player like that frees up the 2 CMs ahead of him as their tracking back becomes less crucial and more 'nice to have'

@cheron85 you can’t change your answer but you have clarified your view very nicely. Thanks 🙏 

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After 142 responses the highest polled priority continues to be a winger (32%) followed by an attacking midfielder (25%).

Yesterday’s performance by Shinnie in midfield may serve to amend some people’s view - the team looked far sturdier and robust with him in the middle and it was good to see the powerful frame of André Wisdom back fit who can play centre half if required. 

At present it’s hard to know what a settled starting 11 would be; the next portion of fixtures after the international break will be interesting especially regarding whether Josefzoon keeps his place despite a run of bland performances. 

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On reflection specifically focusing on the January transfer window, I think we need a rcb and another winger, also hopefully signing Paterson permanently. 

RCB- Davies has played there recently but it isn’t his preferred position- he prefers playing as a left centre back- it may not seen important but anyone who has played at centre back even at amateur level will tell you there’s a massive difference between playing at rcb and lcb, because you need to get your body in a completely difficult position and the passing angles are different, which is why you don’t see left footed centre backs playing on the right side.

Winger- Goes without saying that we need a huge improvement on Jozefzoon 

Paterson- Get it done, get it done!

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