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Championship – Bookies Odds/Predictions

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currently I would have us down as finishing 11th-14th , 8th is a bit generous from the bookies based on our squad now but I suspect (and pray ) we bring in atleast another 3 or 4 players.

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1 hour ago, Harrowram said:

With Keogh, Davis and Huddlestone as the defensive midfielder we look very slow at the back. With Ampadu and/or Tomori we would look much more assured.

We need as a minimum a quick centre half, a winger and another striker to be top 6. Brentford have sold too many players to compete. The golakeeper Bentley has gone to Bristol City, another centre half has been sold to Villa ( the third centre half in 12 months after Egan and Mepham), it looks like their top scorer Maupay will be sold , and Celtic are interested in their defensive midfielder. In addition another centre half Barbett has left on a free. They can't continue to replace quality players at the rate they need to!

I don't think West Brom will do much. They don't have Harvey Barnes, Jay Rodriguez, Rondon, or Gayle.

Boro have a rookie manager, no money, poor attendances and like us had three loans last season who have all gone back to their previous clubs.

Bristol City have sold a young player for a lot of money, and signed at great expense two of the three players they loaned from Chelsea last season. Otherwise they haven't improved very much.

Forest-new manager, some loan and free transfers. Who knows?

Fulham-seem to be throwing money at it. Rookie manager.

Cardiff- Warnock's final season?

Stoke - who knows? the new manager didn't improve things very much last season. Good squad on paper but football is played on grass.

 

I think Leeds and Cardiff are likely to be competitive. Derby need players quickly.

Currently about £2m in profit (before taking into account signing on fees and wages)

Kelly was sold for £15m rising to (potentially) £21m*

Eisa sold for an undisclosed fee but Peterborough's record, so over £1.2m

Bentley £2-4m

Kalas £7m*

DaSilva £2m

Szmodics (looks a real gem on limited viewing so far) 700k ish

Rowe free

Gilmartin free.

 

Expecting to see a striker come in, strong links being made to Nketiah on a loan but I'd be shocked if it happened.

 

*These fees are different to what the media reported, but come from someone who is genuinely ITK.

Edited by JamesBCFC

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I know I'll get pelters for this but I'm not so sure we're going to make many signings or need them.  And here's why...

For all the positives around last season Frank was very much finding his feet last term.  I wanted him to stay because I felt he'd learn from them but getting Philip Cocu has been a massive coup and an upgrade in this regard.

On the three loans, all of them brought something to the party.  Tomori was my favourite player last year and the loss of him limits us in playing a high line, but he wasn't infallible. Assuming that Curtis is his replacement we'll have to change how we play but the old boy's no donkey.  I'm sure the manager will be able to adapt the style to compensate.

Mount is no doubt a talent but I always got the feeling I was watching a boy who was on the cusp of being a man.  His replacement is an u20 World Cup winner.  If you have time look at that squad there isn't a bad player in it.  Dowell is 22, where as Mount was 19 when he joined.  In terms of strength and durability that's a huge bonus.  Actually having looked at the list, I've now changed from feeling tainted from having to watch Forest highlight reels to quite excited by the lad (Oooh Matron) and I'm not so sure this is a downgrade.

Then we have Harry Wilson.  Brilliant goals and assists goes without saying.  He also played THE pass of the play off final and that was something that he developed throughout his time with us.  Yes he didn't always grab the game by the scruff of the neck but he's young learning and improving.  I can see why we've asked about him coming back for another season.

Finally, the number of triallists with the u23's recently tells you that a number of them will feature heavily throughout the season replacing quite a lot of the deadwood we've been carrying in previous seasons.  Yes they'll make mistakes and they're learning but they'll bring energy and enthusiasm and look what Bielsa managed bringing through a number of talented youngsters.

To bring this back on topic, both Derby and Cardiff look the value bets for those that can afford to lose money.

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4 minutes ago, Penelope Pendrex said:

Someone else before put it much better than I am going to here, but people have a tendency to very much overrate their own teams and in particular their individual players.

True.

It's called familiarity bias. Add a bit of halo effect, optimism bias and wishful thinking to the mix and you have fan who shouldn't be betting.

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For me:

Fulham- absolutely frightening favourites

Huddersfield- look consistently solid and have had alot of time to prepare.

Stoke- they had enough big names they needed some dependable players for this division and have bought them. Shrewd signings and retained the players they want to for the championship

The rest don't scare me at all:

Brentford- lost too many players, good signings but will need to gel and some won't hit the ground running 

Leeds- lacking defensively, didn't think they needed to strengthen going forward anyway.

Cardiff- will be a force but we're never too convincing when they were promoted and aren't massively stronger now. Mainly grinded out games.

Middlesbrough and west brom- lacking alot of key players from last season and do not have the funds to strengthen. Both are weaker prospects than last year.

Bristol- some shrewd signings but some won't work out. 

Forest- can't comment until their squad takes shape, they are collecting players and I don't understand how they haven't fell fowl of ffp yet.

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15 minutes ago, Penelope Pendrex said:

Someone else before put it much better than I am going to here, but people have a tendency to very much overrate their own teams and in particular their individual players.

Absolutely. And never has this been more apt than down the A52.

Whilst your point is right, there is something to be said for fans also underrating their own team and/or players and being unduly negative. Whilsy @Dimmu is correct about familiarity bias amongst a lot of people, there is also the flip side where familiarity breeds contempt amongst many others.

All in all, supporters of a team are pretty much usually the least capable of accurately assessing their own team. Its one of the may reasons why I'd NEVER bet on Derby (that and the one miserable occasion where I included Derby to lose in an accumulator and they wen't and let me down and I've never been so disappointed to see us win. A valuable life lesson).

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Last October 2018, the Derby Telegraph carried an article concerning predictions for the Championship in the 2018/19 season, which was compiled from a "super computer", based on a complex model, with statistics & analysis from the website 'FiveThirtyEight'.

These was their predictions:

  • "Derby are tipped to finish in 9th place, with 64 points, 8 points off the play-off position, and 18 points adrift of top-spot".
  • "The Rams are given a 17% chance of claiming a top-six finish".
  • "WBA & Sheff.Utd are forecast to take the top-two spots"
  • "Middlesborough, Leeds, Stoke City & Brentford to make the play-offs".
  • "Notts Forest to finish below Derby in 11th place".
  • "Swansea & Norwich City to finish above Derby". (Note: but not in the play-offs)
  • "Ipswich, Reading & Rotherham to be relegated".

The only prediction they got completely correct was that Forest would finish below Derby, so that was easy.

So if a "super computer" can't predict the final positions, what chance have we got?

 

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5 minutes ago, ImARam2 said:

Last October 2018, the Derby Telegraph carried an article concerning predictions for the Championship in the 2018/19 season, which was compiled from a "super computer", based on a complex model, with statistics & analysis from the website 'FiveThirtyEight'.

These was their predictions:

  • "Derby are tipped to finish in 9th place, with 64 points, 8 points off the play-off position, and 18 points adrift of top-spot".
  • "The Rams are given a 17% chance of claiming a top-six finish".
  • "WBA & Sheff.Utd are forecast to take the top-two spots"
  • "Middlesborough, Leeds, Stoke City & Brentford to make the play-offs".
  • "Notts Forest to finish below Derby in 11th place".
  • "Swansea & Norwich City to finish above Derby". (Note: but not in the play-offs)
  • "Ipswich, Reading & Rotherham to be relegated".

The only prediction they got completely correct was that Forest would finish below Derby, so that was easy.

So if a "super computer" can't predict the final positions, what chance have we got?

 

I'm impressed they put Sheff Utd in the top 2 though. They were 13th with the bookies.

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40 minutes ago, ImARam2 said:

Last October 2018, the Derby Telegraph carried an article concerning predictions for the Championship in the 2018/19 season, which was compiled from a "super computer", based on a complex model, with statistics & analysis from the website 'FiveThirtyEight'.

These was their predictions:

  • "Derby are tipped to finish in 9th place, with 64 points, 8 points off the play-off position, and 18 points adrift of top-spot".
  • "The Rams are given a 17% chance of claiming a top-six finish".
  • "WBA & Sheff.Utd are forecast to take the top-two spots"
  • "Middlesborough, Leeds, Stoke City & Brentford to make the play-offs".
  • "Notts Forest to finish below Derby in 11th place".
  • "Swansea & Norwich City to finish above Derby". (Note: but not in the play-offs)
  • "Ipswich, Reading & Rotherham to be relegated".

The only prediction they got completely correct was that Forest would finish below Derby, so that was easy.

So if a "super computer" can't predict the final positions, what chance have we got?

 

I mean, as far as predictions go, those weren't actually the worst I've ever seen:

Derby finished 6th, so 3 places +/-

Sheff Utd went up (against the odds) and WBA finished 4th

Middlesbrough and Leeds made the play offs. Brentford weren't a million miles off contention

Notts Forest did finish below Derby

Norwich did finish above Derby

Ipswich and Rotherham did get relegated and Reading were in a scrap all season.

Turns out the "super computer" wasn't completely misguided.

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1 hour ago, TibshelfRam said:

I mean, as far as predictions go, those weren't actually the worst I've ever seen:

Derby finished 6th, so 3 places +/-

Sheff Utd went up (against the odds) and WBA finished 4th

Middlesbrough and Leeds made the play offs. Brentford weren't a million miles off contention

Notts Forest did finish below Derby

Norwich did finish above Derby

Ipswich and Rotherham did get relegated and Reading were in a scrap all season.

Turns out the "super computer" wasn't completely misguided.

no , but you are , Boro didnt make the play offs

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