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Race for the Play Offs


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7 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

Has anyone ever got promoted without winning an away game after turn of the year?

Closest I know of is Crystal Palace in 2012-13, who managed just one win away from home not just from January to May 2013, but stretching back to 10th November, but still finished 5th.

No prizes for guessing who that away win was against.

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1 minute ago, JfR said:

Closest I know of is Crystal Palace in 2012-13, who managed just one win away from home not just from January to May 2013, but stretching back to 10th November, but still finished 5th.

No prizes for guessing who that away win was against.

Didn’t palace then win the playoffs that season?!

Id back Derby to beat one of Bristol or Swansea so that could be a good omen. 

Today was our toughest game in the run in. Bristol and Swansea suit our game, we’ve just got to deliver. 

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1 hour ago, rammieib said:

My head says classic Derby will turn up at Bristol with it all to play for and we will be turned over 3-0.

That sounds like your heart based on past disappointment under different managers with different players. Head would surely say after today’s performance against a team that suits our style of play that we would at least give them a game?!

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6 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

Has anyone ever got promoted without winning an away game after turn of the year?

No, and none will either because we’ll have to win at either Swansea, not lose at Bristol and beat qpr and West Brom giving us 73 / 74 points which might just be enough for 6th  

There is a chance we will be 6th on Monday 5pm, making the Bristol game a real pressure cooker. I think we need 3 wins and a draw. 

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It’s pretty simple. All this who’s going to win what, and how many points we’re going to need balls. 

All we need to do is match Bristol’s results, and match Boro’s results, til the end of the season. Whilst winning our game in hand. Win our game in hand, and we’ll be above boro anyway. So if they draw or loose, we have the freedom to draw or loose. 

Even if we draw with Bristol, we’re matching their result. 

If I’ve got my maths right. That brings us to the last day of the season basically in the same position we are now, but above boro on goal difference. We’ll still have to win the last game, but if we do, a draw won’t be good enough for Bristol, they’ll have to win too. 

So today is fine. I’m pretty happy at this stage if we match Bristol’s results every step of the way, and go into the last game with a decent chance. 

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37 minutes ago, MuespachRam said:

I ah w and my super computer on the go for the last week and It has churned out this for me...

if we win the next 7 games then we will 100% get promoted, however if we fail to win our final game we will not. 

Hope that helps everyone. 

Actually, as optimistic as I am, that’s not, strictly speaking, true. Technically, if boro won all their remaining games by a clear goal difference, they could end up with a better goal difference than us. 

But then that would mean your statement implies we’ll win the first 3 games of next season on the bounce. With a start like that, perhaps promotion would finally be on the cards. 

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Still in with a chance of making play offs. Would have settled for this at start of season. However, we should have at least 15 more points from games that on paper we could have won.. If pigs could fly we could sty up if we get the pens we deserve. We have been doing a lot of scratching for points. if we go up, we could play West Ham off the park. I see the trotters were relegated today. Let us hope that there is no end of season trouble and peppa spray being used.??

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7 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

Actually, as optimistic as I am, that’s not, strictly speaking, true. Technically, if boro won all their remaining games by a clear goal difference, they could end up with a better goal difference than us. 

But then that would mean your statement implies we’ll win the first 3 games of next season on the bounce. With a start like that, perhaps promotion would finally be on the cards. 

Technically and mathematically Tiger you are absolutely correct. 

Deep down though, we all know that the gumps will shitehouse a draw against Middlesbrough in the El Jurassico to enable Franks Rams to sneak into 6th place. 

?

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7 hours ago, TigerTedd said:

It’s pretty simple. All this who’s going to win what, and how many points we’re going to need balls. 

All we need to do is match Bristol’s results, and match Boro’s results, til the end of the season. Whilst winning our game in hand. Win our game in hand, and we’ll be above boro anyway. So if they draw or loose, we have the freedom to draw or loose. 

Even if we draw with Bristol, we’re matching their result. 

If I’ve got my maths right. That brings us to the last day of the season basically in the same position we are now, but above boro on goal difference. We’ll still have to win the last game, but if we do, a draw won’t be good enough for Bristol, they’ll have to win too. 

So today is fine. I’m pretty happy at this stage if we match Bristol’s results every step of the way, and go into the last game with a decent chance. 

I agree it’s balls... but then you go on to add your own list of ifs, buts and maybes!

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33 minutes ago, Mucker1884 said:

I agree it’s balls... but then you go on to add your own list of ifs, buts and maybes!

I know, what I mean is all this, ‘the required points will be 76, we won’t make it’ balls. 

Us, Bristol and boro could loose all of our remaining games til the end of the season (us playing Bristol not withstanding), and we’d still be in with a chance on the last day. We just need to match boro and Bristol’s results. 

(My only caveat is that we need to win our game in hand). 

So it’s not all doom and gloom even if we lost against QPR, providing the other two also lose. 

To put it another way, pressures on them. If we win, they have to win. If they lose, we don’t have to win. 

Makes sense to me anyway. 

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1 hour ago, Parsnip said:

I've done my sums. 76 points is the required tally for 6th place. Boro will be the only team to achieve that amount.

Sorry for any disappointment caused.

At the moment Middlesborough are on 67 points from 43 games. That's just over 1.5 points a game, which takes them to just under 72 points.

Our points average takes us to just over 70 points.

So if they drop a point from their average and we gain a point, we're both on 71. That's how close it is.

Having said all that, I think we'll just miss out.

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If Boro can pull of the exceptional feat of 6 straight wins off the back of 6 straight defeats - I reckon that'll see them in the playoffs.

This is their current form...

LLLLLLWWW

Forest, Rotherham and Reading left - I think they'll complete the pattern. Ugly as it may be.

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12 hours ago, Parsnip said:

If Boro can pull of the exceptional feat of 6 straight wins off the back of 6 straight defeats - I reckon that'll see them in the playoffs.

This is their current form...

LLLLLLWWW

Forest, Rotherham and Reading left - I think they'll complete the pattern. Ugly as it may be.

They lost to Forest 2-0 at home in October and the red dogs are due a win, have the faith.

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