The Politics Thread 2019

[DarkFruitsRam7]

7 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

I thought you was busy with university work???

Not too busy to come on and label Johnson a racist I see...

Hope you applied the same sort of context to his comments that you did to Dianne Abbots when comments that you deemed not to be racist?

Just to recap, she once said:-

"White people love playing ‘divide & rule’. We should not play their game."

I look forward to when you are not too busy, so you can explain how this is not racist yet things that Johnson says are!

Got dragged out against my original intentions, as it was the last chance I’ll get to see some of my uni mates for over a month. 

I’ve told you that I think there’s a huge contextual difference between the two. I don’t think it’s worth spending hours going back and forth for us to not move an inch.

[Sith Happens]

1 minute ago, Mafiabob said:

Probably not totally convinced by that.

Whats an opinium poll?

[maxjam]

9 minutes ago, Paul71 said:

Probably not totally convinced by that.

Whats an opinium poll?

He meant to type 'New in opium poll'

[GB SPORTS]

4 hours ago, GboroRam said:

I think this is a view from within a little bubble., and I'd guess there's still around 50/50 support for leave/remain. To claim that there's a significant number of people who have changed their mind is probably wishful thinking. 

Personally I think the result of a revote would be closer, but still in favour of leave. People have moved a little. Probably similar numbers have become aware that they weren't given the full story and feel leave isn't as straightforward as was intimated therefore have switched to remain, as those who want to uphold the original vote.

Yes I was looking at it from one view, I am sure there are others who voted leave who would now vote remain, also in three years the age demographics would have changed also and this could have a significant effect. The referendum question (the wording of) would also be significant.

I suppose the point I am making you can't have the same referendum again as it would definitely be undemocratic. Also IMHO the EU hierarchy have done nothing but tried to shaft the UK at every turn to protect their legacy.

I do blame David Cameron for not holding the referendum on the terms he devised, is shouldn't have been so easy to achieve a leave mandate.

[GB SPORTS]

36 minutes ago, DarkFruitsRam7 said:

Got dragged out against my original intentions, as it was the last chance I’ll get to see some of my uni mates for over a month. 

I’ve told you that I think there’s a huge contextual difference between the two. I don’t think it’s worth spending hours going back and forth for us to not move an inch.

No there isn't and that's why we now have a large Conservative majority because moderate views are labelled racist when used  in the same context as Diane Abbott's remarks

[GB SPORTS]

4 hours ago, Highgate said:

I'm not saying the EU isn't capable of intransigence....but what intransigence are you referring to in this case? Several times they came to an agreement with the UK government, only the UK parliament to reject it. The EU has to negotiate in the EU's interest not in the UK's.  What positions should they have backed down on in your opinion?

Sorry Highgate missed this : the main ones as I see it is threat to not share international security intel and also end cooperation on shared technological R and D projects.

 

[Norman]

41 minutes ago, ramesses said:

There wasn’t any ‘unexpected swing’ – the BBC poll of polls indicated that the percentage difference between conservative and labour remained roughly the same throughout the campaign.

I say again, a series of polls which consistently point to the same outcome over a number of years is a fairly reliable indicator of the state of play and the best evidence available and I don’t think any poll over the past two years has any one poll giving leave a lead over remain – but it remains exceptionally close.

Think you've gone on to something I am not talking about. 

If you think there was no unexpected percentage swing last night then I don't know what to say. It was nearly off Vine's swing-o-meter!!!!!!! 

[GB SPORTS]

1 hour ago, Norman said:

I said 'I think'. I wasn't stating facts. I thought people would have learnt last night that the polls really don't show the real picture until the votes have been cast. 

Pointless posting polls. 

In fact, has anyone here ever been asked how they are voting in a poll?

Constantly saw polls coming out undertaken for different newspapers and the government etc, but has anyone actually ever took part in one? 

Yes on several occasions over the years until I TPSed our phone.

 

Also when Amber Valley was considered the key bellwether constituency (since 1979 we have always voted a MP to the government) I have been exit polled a couple of times.

 

 

[Norman]

2 minutes ago, WHAT DO I GET said:

Yes on several occasions over the years until I TPSed our phone.

 

Also when Amber Valley was considered the key bellwether constituency (since 1979 we have always voted a MP to the government) I have been exit polled a couple of times.

 

 

Did you tell the truth? 

[GB SPORTS]

Just now, Norman said:

Did you tell the truth? 

Yes in all cases, however if you would have asked me prior to the EU referendum I couldn't make my mind up until I got in the booth.

[ramesses]

16 minutes ago, Norman said:

Think you've gone on to something I am not talking about. 

If you think there was no unexpected percentage swing last night then I don't know what to say. It was nearly off Vine's swing-o-meter!!!!!!! 

Must admit that following your jumps from one red herring to the next is a challenge.

The swing-o-meter in those red wall constituencies (as was) was a consequence of the first past the post system – there was no late ‘unexpected swing’ to the Tories.

Similarly, as I’ve explained, there is no poll over the last two years that suggests (as you did) that “it might be 55/45 towards leave. Maybe more”.

[Norman]

7 minutes ago, ramesses said:

Must admit that following your jumps from one red herring to the next is a challenge.

The swing-o-meter in those red wall constituencies (as was) was a consequence of the first past the post system – there was no late ‘unexpected swing’ to the Tories.

Similarly, as I’ve explained, there is no poll over the last two years that suggests (as you did) that “it might be 55/45 towards leave. Maybe more”.

A red herring? 

I gave my opinion. And my opinion is the polls are wrong. They were before the referendum and I think they are now. 

So the polls predicting a hung parliament or small majority didn't get it right but it was nothing to do with poll being wrong. OK then. 

The percentage points swing was higher than expected. It's a fact. Jeremy Vine said so. And Jeremy wouldn't lie to me. 

[Norman]

13 minutes ago, WHAT DO I GET said:

Yes in all cases, however if you would have asked me prior to the EU referendum I couldn't make my mind up until I got in the booth.

Interesting. Thanks for that. A lot of undecided voters about yesterday as well. Probably explains the polls beforehand. 

[uttoxram75]

2 hours ago, Norman said:

I said 'I think'. I wasn't stating facts. I thought people would have learnt last night that the polls really don't show the real picture until the votes have been cast. 

Pointless posting polls. 

In fact, has anyone here ever been asked how they are voting in a poll?

Constantly saw polls coming out undertaken for different newspapers and the government etc, but has anyone actually ever took part in one? 

No, ive never been asked to take part in a poll and I don't know anyone who has.

The polls I saw in the run up to the election were virtually bang on, showing the Tories around 44% and Labour 30%. -32%

[jono]

2 hours ago, SchtivePesley said:

Abso-fliipin-lutely!

Nothing would please me more than to be proved wrong on Brexit! I don't have any ideological attachment to EU membership, I just don't want to be eating out of the bins this time next year!

 

Aye, but what if Labour won, did what it said it would do, and we still ended up with Brexit ? This was entirely possible especially with Labours stance, or lack of one. 

[JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta]

Does the size of the conservative majority now reduce the influence of Rees-Mogg and his band of horrific headbangers in the ERG? The less say they have in matters the better.

[GB SPORTS]

25 minutes ago, Norman said:

Interesting. Thanks for that. A lot of undecided voters about yesterday as well. Probably explains the polls beforehand. 

My two most rabid supporting labour friends (one an ex union man) couldn't bring themselves to vote Labour yesterday, I know if they were polled beforehand they would have said they were undecided as I had discussed it with them both . One spoiled his paper the other voted Conservative.

[GB SPORTS]

8 hours ago, SchtivePesley said:

I think we have to wait for the Brexit mists to clear.

If Brexit turns out to be the land of milk and honey that we're promised then no one will really care about how radical the changes suggested by the opposition are, and a centrist Labour party will succeed or fail based on how personable their new leader is

If Brexit tuns out to be a disaster, a transformative agenda from the left will be far more attractive.

FWIW i don't think the Labour defeat today was anything to do with the manifesto

Only the Brexit part.

[GenBr]

7 hours ago, maxjam said:

Isn't that the root of problem though, 25% of Labour seats are in London whereas the majority of the rest of the country wants to leave the EU. 

The Brexit referendum may have been a close 52-48 but iirc something like 450/600 constituencies voted to leave.

I'm all for a fairer system of voting, one in which each vote counts but if we adopted a simple PR system the country would be held to the whims of London and other big cities.  Similar applies in the US, Trump lost the popular vote but won via the electoral college - if they drop that 80% of the country is ignored and politics is dominated by the coasts. 

Most of our population lives in the large cities. I fail to see why thats an argument against PR. You could just as easily say we are being held to ransom by the larger number of women or the north is being held to ransom by posh southerners. Democracy is a tyranny of the majority - every vote shoyld count the same. There is no way you could make city dwellers votes worth less just because there are way more of them.

7 hours ago, GboroRam said:

I can sort of see how you might change political allegiance as your life changes, your career, family etc. But fundamental identity politics - current Brexit supporters don't see themselves as European and the youth don't share that outlook.

Being for or against Brexit has nothing to do with whether people "feel European". Leaving the EU is not the same as leaving Europe.  

5 hours ago, Ambitious said:

The demographic of the result is fascinating - Labour are no longer the party of the working class, it's most definitely conservative. 

My thoughts: 

When was the last time Labour won an election as the "working class party"? The working class backed Thatcher in huge numbers every single time she ran. Tony Blair then moves to the centre and abandons the working class alongside Brown and labour havent won an election since. This isnt the first time the working class have backed the Tories. I assume you believe this will be a catastrophe for them. To find an election where actually working class Labour had any significant majority you have to go all the way back to the 1966 election.

 

 

[maxjam]

15 minutes ago, GenBr said:

Most of our population lives in the large cities. I fail to see why thats an argument against PR. You could just as easily say we are being held to ransom by the larger number of women or the north is being held to ransom by posh southerners. Democracy is a tyranny of the majority - every vote shoyld count the same. There is no way you could make city dwellers votes worth less just because there are way more of them.

I guess my concern is similar to that of late stage capitalism, in which a small number of mega companies control all the power.  

If you know you only have to convince the population of (potentially a few) cities to vote for you where is the need to invest in other parts of the country. 

I've not really thought it through properly yet, just coming to realization that if we were to ever change from a first past the post system a great deal of thought would have to be put into it and a pure PR system might be equally as bad if not worse.