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The Politics Thread 2019


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23 minutes ago, McRamFan said:

 

Even with a significant margin of error that's a mighty large majority for Scotland wanting to remain. 
Surely a "gross betrayal" of the Scottish nation if we do leave, and an inarguable case for a second Scottish independence referendum (which they would win next time)

Most people seem to consider themselves English, Scottish, Welsh etc. Does anyone actually consider themselves a citizen of the United Kingdom?

Edit: clearly no one in England cared about Northern Ireland in the run up to the EU referendum...

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47 minutes ago, maxjam said:

You can get polls to say anything;

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6885661/How-Britain-wants-NO-DEAL-Brexit.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ito=1490&ns_campaign=1490

To be honest the way parliament has handled leaving and the constant media propaganda I'm surprised more people don't want to remain now ?

Coming from a bexit paper with no reference to sample.  If you look on the site:

https://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/latest-eu-voting-intention-figures-show-remain-continuing-to-record-leads-over-leave/

You will see that they have been tracking this very closely, and is not a 'snap shot'.

 

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4 minutes ago, McRamFan said:

Coming from a bexit paper with no reference to sample.  If you look on the site:

https://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/latest-eu-voting-intention-figures-show-remain-continuing-to-record-leads-over-leave/

You will see that they have been tracking this very closely, and is not a 'snap shot'.

 

Yeah I read the link, I even downloaded the methodology to check that out but you can still make polls say what you want depending on who and where you ask the question for example. 

I'm not saying it incorrect, but as @Ghost of Clough said, in the run up to the referendum remain was winning.  So was Clinton in the last US election, but Trump still won.

That said, I still think poll is probably more accurate than not simply because Project Fear, MSM propaganda and parliaments handling of Brexit will have swayed those that were only just on the side of voting leave in the referendum.  Almost like is has been an orchestrated strategy from day one...

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59 minutes ago, StivePesley said:

Even with a significant margin of error that's a mighty large majority for Scotland wanting to remain. 
Surely a "gross betrayal" of the Scottish nation if we do leave, and an inarguable case for a second Scottish independence referendum (which they would win next time)

Most people seem to consider themselves English, Scottish, Welsh etc. Does anyone actually consider themselves a citizen of the United Kingdom?

Edit: clearly no one in England cared about Northern Ireland in the run up to the EU referendum...

No difference to the original referendum. London, Scotland and Northern Ireland all voted to stay with significant margins of victory. Everywhere else voted to leave. If its a betrayal to Scotland to leave then its a betrayal to England, who have a far greater population, to remain. 

England were skewed by London, but East Midlands voted 59% leave, East England 56%, North East England 58%, West Midlands 59% and Yorkshire 58%. London was the only region in England that voted to remain.

I consider myself to be a citizen of the United Kingdom, but at the same time I don't care if Scotland leaves. 

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3 minutes ago, maxjam said:

I'm not saying it incorrect, but as @Ghost of Clough said, in the run up to the referendum remain was winning.  So was Clinton in the last US election, but Trump still won.

Actually, Clinton got the higher % of the vote, an electoral college, heavily bias towards the republics, put Trump in.  It is as bad as our first past the post system.

5 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Almost like is has been an orchestrated strategy from day one...

Personally, I think it has been, and I think it harps back Enoch Powells 1968 speech rivers of blood, then on to Thatcher, when she thought she could walk on water, and how she vilified Europe with that speech in Bruges in 1988.  Also Tory, yes I mean TORY, Blair's inability to reconcile the new states joining.

Take away all the lies, and what you are left with is a Tory Civil War, where the casualties will be the ordinary folk in the street, the NHS, education, care for the elderly, police, social services.  Here is an example;

My mother is in a care home, specialist one, as she has very severe Alzheimer's.  It can accommodate 42 residents, she has been there for nearly 4 years.  When we found this, there was a waiting list, and they would only take the most needy. After 3 months, mum got in.

Today, they have 28 residents.  The reason why, is that they cannot get the staff.  About 50% of the staff where from the EU and the Far East, including a Doctor, Nurses and Carers.  The Doctor left as the amount of racial abuse, where they lived, rose after the brexit vote, and they decided to go back to India, 1/3 of the carers left, returning, mainly, to Poland.

Now they have to rely on a locum Doctor, and because of the higher costs, they can only have them on call.  The staff are having to do more work, and it's not easy.  A lot of the residents can erupt into violent rages with zero warning.

Draw from that your own conclusions.

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16 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Yeah I read the link, I even downloaded the methodology to check that out but you can still make polls say what you want depending on who and where you ask the question for example. 

I'm not saying it incorrect, but as @Ghost of Clough said, in the run up to the referendum remain was winning.  So was Clinton in the last US election, but Trump still won.

That said, I still think poll is probably more accurate than not simply because Project Fear, MSM propaganda and parliaments handling of Brexit will have swayed those that were only just on the side of voting leave in the referendum.  Almost like is has been an orchestrated strategy from day one...

Alternatively, people are perhaps coming around to the school of thought that it was, just maybe, a pretty naive idea in the first place to believe that any deal with the EU was going to be the 'easiest ever', that they 'needed us more than we needed them' and that we would have this huge wheelbarrow of cash available to spend on our infrastructure?

A few choice quotes from prominent leavers...

  • There will be no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside - David Davis, 10 October, 2016
  • The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want - Michael Gove, 9 April 2016
  • Getting out of the EU can be quick and easy – the UK holds most of the cards - John Redwood, 17 July, 2016
  • The Free Trade deal that we do with the EU will be one of the easiest in human history - Liam Fox, 20 July, 2017
  • We're not really interested in a transition deal, but we'll consider one to be kind to the EU - David Davis, 15 November, 2016
  • The idea that we’ll do a transitional arrangement where you’re still in, paying money, still with free movement of people – that we’ll do the long-term deal in slow motion … That is plainly not what we’re after - David Davis, 15 March 2016
  • I believe that we can get a free trade and customs agreement concluded before March 2019 - David Davis, 18 January, 2017

It's been an ill-thought out 'plan' from the start.

 

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17 minutes ago, GenBr said:

I consider myself to be a citizen of the United Kingdom, but at the same time I don't care if Scotland leaves. 

Build the wall?

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5 minutes ago, McRamFan said:

Actually, Clinton got the higher % of the vote, an electoral college, heavily bias towards the republics, put Trump in.  It is as bad as our first past the post system.

Personally, I think it has been, and I think it harps back Enoch Powells 1968 speech rivers of blood, then on to Thatcher, when she thought she could walk on water, and how she vilified Europe with that speech in Bruges in 1988.  Also Tory, yes I mean TORY, Blair's inability to reconcile the new states joining.

Take away all the lies, and what you are left with is a Tory Civil War, where the casualties will be the ordinary folk in the street, the NHS, education, care for the elderly, police, social services.  Here is an example;

My mother is in a care home, specialist one, as she has very severe Alzheimer's.  It can accommodate 42 residents, she has been there for nearly 4 years.  When we found this, there was a waiting list, and they would only take the most needy. After 3 months, mum got in.

Today, they have 28 residents.  The reason why, is that they cannot get the staff.  About 50% of the staff where from the EU and the Far East, including a Doctor, Nurses and Carers.  The Doctor left as the amount of racial abuse, where they lived, rose after the brexit vote, and they decided to go back to India, 1/3 of the carers left, returning, mainly, to Poland.

Now they have to rely on a locum Doctor, and because of the higher costs, they can only have them on call.  The staff are having to do more work, and it's not easy.  A lot of the residents can erupt into violent rages with zero warning.

Draw from that your own conclusions.

Yeah I know she won the popular vote, but the analysts were still predicting certain states would be won by Clinton and they were wrong, so yeah polls...

As for the rest, the Tories have been divided over Europe for a long time now, but so to has the country in recent years.  We joined the EU in a different time and for different reasons, the power creep and change in its original creation has grown over time.

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7 minutes ago, eddie said:

Alternatively, people are perhaps coming around to the school of thought that it was, just maybe, a pretty naive idea in the first place to believe that any deal with the EU was going to be the 'easiest ever', that they 'needed us more than we needed them' and that we would have this huge wheelbarrow of cash available to spend on our infrastructure?

A few choice quotes from prominent leavers...

  • There will be no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside - David Davis, 10 October, 2016
  • The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want - Michael Gove, 9 April 2016
  • Getting out of the EU can be quick and easy – the UK holds most of the cards - John Redwood, 17 July, 2016
  • The Free Trade deal that we do with the EU will be one of the easiest in human history - Liam Fox, 20 July, 2017
  • We're not really interested in a transition deal, but we'll consider one to be kind to the EU - David Davis, 15 November, 2016
  • The idea that we’ll do a transitional arrangement where you’re still in, paying money, still with free movement of people – that we’ll do the long-term deal in slow motion … That is plainly not what we’re after - David Davis, 15 March 2016
  • I believe that we can get a free trade and customs agreement concluded before March 2019 - David Davis, 18 January, 2017

It's been an ill-thought out 'plan' from the start.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_of_Europe

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1 minute ago, maxjam said:

Yeah I know she won the popular vote, but the analysts were still predicting certain states would be won by Clinton and they were wrong, so yeah polls...

As for the rest, the Tories have been divided over Europe for a long time now, but so to has the country in recent years.  We joined the EU in a different time and for different reasons, the power creep and change in its original creation has grown over time.

The changes to the EU were voted for by successive British governments.

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7 minutes ago, eddie said:

Alternatively, people are perhaps coming around to the school of thought that it was, just maybe, a pretty naive idea in the first place to believe that any deal with the EU was going to be the 'easiest ever', that they 'needed us more than we needed them' and that we would have this huge wheelbarrow of cash available to spend on our infrastructure?

A few choice quotes from prominent leavers...

  • There will be no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside - David Davis, 10 October, 2016
  • The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want - Michael Gove, 9 April 2016
  • Getting out of the EU can be quick and easy – the UK holds most of the cards - John Redwood, 17 July, 2016
  • The Free Trade deal that we do with the EU will be one of the easiest in human history - Liam Fox, 20 July, 2017
  • We're not really interested in a transition deal, but we'll consider one to be kind to the EU - David Davis, 15 November, 2016
  • The idea that we’ll do a transitional arrangement where you’re still in, paying money, still with free movement of people – that we’ll do the long-term deal in slow motion … That is plainly not what we’re after - David Davis, 15 March 2016
  • I believe that we can get a free trade and customs agreement concluded before March 2019 - David Davis, 18 January, 2017

It's been an ill-thought out 'plan' from the start.

 

I'm not gonna argue against the garbage thats been spouted (from both sides) but there are some very good reasons for leaving the EU - just as there are for remaining.  I weighed up what meant more to me and I voted leave and I'd vote leave again. 

There has been so much said since the referendum that I would imagine that most people are just plain sick of the process now and just want it to end.  Unfortunately that will mean either a lot of angry remainers or a lot of very angry leavers depending on the outcome.

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5 minutes ago, eddie said:

The changes to the EU were voted for by successive British governments.

- and the government wanted us to remain in the EU when giving us the referendum as well.

Then they ran election campaigns saying they would honour the leave result.

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1 minute ago, maxjam said:

- and the government wanted us to remain in the EU when giving us the referendum as well.

Then they ran election campaigns saying they would honour the leave result.

Never thought we would leave though mate as the establishment won’t allow it. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Curtains said:

Glad you are happy about a Federal  superstate called the EU 

Central EU Government ruling us all. 

Wonderful. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_of_Europe

You do know what 'speculative' means, don't you?

"Engaged in, expressing, or based on conjecture rather than knowledge"

Conjecture, rather than knowledge - no change there then.

I could speculate that we are all going to have pet unicorns after we leave the EU, but it takes a particular level of craziness to believe it.

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Just now, Curtains said:

Never thought we would leave though mate as the establishment won’t allow it. 

 

That remains to be seen but leaving is looking increasingly unlikely unless UKIP/Brexit Party win enough votes to apply pressure again.

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1 minute ago, eddie said:

You do know what 'speculative' means, don't you?

"Engaged in, expressing, or based on conjecture rather than knowledge"

Conjecture, rather than knowledge - no change there then.

I could speculate that we are all going to have pet unicorns after we leave the EU, but it takes a particular level of craziness to believe it.

You don’t think the EU runs us already then 

I suggest they do and are aiming for even more power. 

Remember the working time directive. 

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