The Politics Thread 2019

[McRamFan]

3 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

I'm not a Brexiteer but there's very little in it that either hasn't already been talked about or isn't obvious.

Not to a brexiteer, it's all milk and honey, small bump in the road, easy peasy to make deals.  You have to remember the brexiteers said it would be easy.

[Eddie]

56 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

Surely the most ardent backers of Brexit at any cost would be appalled by all this.

Some mega rich hedge funds want a No Deal Brexit as they know it will make the pound go down. They have gambled loads of money on the country suffering.

These same people donated to Johnson who wants a No Deal Brexit and would rather be dead in a ditch than getting one.

The government itself knows a No Deal Brexit will cause all sorts of problems and they they tried to keep the reports on this secret.

I'm appalled but also excited. This surely is the final nail in the coffin for Johnson and the ERG. And hopefully the Tories.

I think the sacrifice of the 21 Tory rebels  could be a huge moment in the history of the UK.

He probably means "If I don't deliver a no-deal Brexit, my paymasters will see to it that I end up dead in a ditch".

[AndyinLiverpool]

1 hour ago, McRamFan said:

But, but but, it can't be true...it's not on the front page of the sun, or the torygraph, and when I use google I can't find it, it's all a lie and it's the fault of the EU...

There you go brexiteers, got you an excuse you can build on.

So what is the brexiteers opinion on yellow hammer?

 

What's on the front page of the Sun this morning is a story about Andrew Flintoff. Not a word about Yellowhammer. Not a word.

[alexxxxx]

12 minutes ago, McRamFan said:

Not to a brexiteer, it's all milk and honey, small bump in the road, easy peasy to make deals.  You have to remember the brexiteers said it would be easy.

To be honest I've noticed that brexiteer commentators recently have toned down their positivity to what brexit will hold to more of an argument of brexit is the only way for people to keep faith in democracy. 

[Eddie]

"We've heard enough from experts".

Prophetic words from Gove a few years ago.

[Van der MoodHoover]

17 minutes ago, McRamFan said:

Not to a brexiteer, it's all milk and honey, small bump in the road, easy peasy to make deals.  You have to remember the brexiteers said it would be easy.

Farage now seems to spout that the only Brexit is a “clean” Brexit (which I assume means no compromise to the EU and therefore no deal).

this appears to be the basis of his electoral pact offer.

 I can’t quite make up my mind whether he is simply being played and is an idiot, or he’s one of the players and hence a charlatan......

[Eddie]

It's also worth pointing out that when the document was originally leaked, it did not say "reasonable worst case scenario" - it said "base scenario".

That (apart from the redacted section) is the ONLY change from then.

[Ghost of Clough]

9 minutes ago, Montgolfier said:

It's also worth pointing out that when the document was originally leaked, it did not say "reasonable worst case scenario" - it said "base scenario".

That (apart from the redacted section) is the ONLY change from then.

And it's understandable as to understand why it was changed... people easily interpret "base case" as the 'middle ground 'prediction, whereas in this case it's closer to just being the absolute worst case scenario.

[AndyinLiverpool]

5 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

And it's understandable as to understand why it was changed... people easily interpret "base case" as the 'middle ground 'prediction, whereas in this case it's closer to just being the absolute worst case scenario.

They said it was out of date back in August, so where's the updated version?

[Eddie]

2 minutes ago, AndyinLiverpool said:

They said it was out of date back in August, so where's the updated version?

The three words I highlighted (increased from two), and the bit they redacted.

That's an update, isn't it?

 

[Eddie]

11 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

And it's understandable as to understand why it was changed... people easily interpret "base case" as the 'middle ground 'prediction, whereas in this case it's closer to just being the absolute worst case scenario.

So it could be worse then - much worse. On the other hand (straw for Brexit fan to clutch on to), it might not be so bad.

[Stive Pesley]

57 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

I'm not a Brexiteer but there's very little in it that either hasn't already been talked about or isn't obvious.

True.

Except it's gone from it being "Project Fear" and then "a leaked document that may be fake news - i won't believe it until i see it" to "the actual document created by the UK Civil Service to analyse the probable negative effects of a no-deal brexit, formally released by political decree".

So the arguments are surely all gone. A Leaver would have to be, either a spectacularly naive optimist, or a really committed Ostrich to continue calling to "just get on with it - it's the will of the people"?

What concerns me is that the document is only 6 pages long. So only one of two scenarios can be true - neither of them good

1) Our governments "preparedness" amounts to a short 6 page memorandum

2) Of course we are more prepared than that and there is a much longer version that explains in even more excruciating detail quite how badly things will collapse in the event of no deal (which we are not being shown)

Nonetheless - the important sentence is the one that categorically states that those on low incomes will bear the brunt

Meanwhile the information about the same people financing the Leave campaign having hedged billions against the pound tanking...

What will it take for some people to wake up??

 

 

 

[maxjam]

1 hour ago, McRamFan said:

No wonder the brexiteers have exited stage right, they have been found wanting.

For what its worth I'm still patiently waiting for Brexit to be delivered - a clean break from Europe, not the crappy tied in indefinitely May deal.  

There is literally no point in engaging on this forum however as the conversation just goes round in circles and then you get called stupid or racist. 

[uttoxram75]

46 minutes ago, AndyinLiverpool said:

What's on the front page of the Sun this morning is a story about Andrew Flintoff. Not a word about Yellowhammer. Not a word.

When I go into Downing Street, they do as I say. When I go to Brussels they take no notice

Rupert Murdoch

[Wolfie]

11 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

Except it's gone from it being "Project Fear" and then "a leaked document that may be fake news - i won't believe it until i see it" to "the actual document created by the UK Civil Service to analyse the probable negative effects of a no-deal brexit, formally released by political decree".

What will it take for some people to wake up??

 

To be honest, I don't know any Leave voters who thought that there would be no short term distruption when we leave (which is exactly what this is describing). Just that whatever the short term impact is, will be worth it in the longer term for their perceived benefits of leaving.

[Eddie]

28 minutes ago, maxjam said:

For what its worth I'm still patiently waiting for Brexit to be delivered - a clean break from Europe, not the crappy tied in indefinitely May deal.  

There is literally no point in engaging on this forum however as the conversation just goes round in circles and then you get called stupid or racist. 

Why do you hate poor people and wish to inflict hardship upon them?

[Eddie]

17 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

To be honest, I don't know any Leave voters who thought that there would be no short term distruption when we leave (which is exactly what this is describing). Just that whatever the short term impact is, will be worth it in the longer term for their perceived benefits of leaving.

Which are?

And how long will it take for 'perceived' to be translated into 'actual'?

 

[Stive Pesley]

34 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

To be honest, I don't know any Leave voters who thought that there would be no short term distruption when we leave (which is exactly what this is describing). Just that whatever the short term impact is, will be worth it in the longer term for their perceived benefits of leaving.

Which is fair enough - I'm sure the Leave voters you know have at least thought about it that way - but our media don't help the situation by continuing to give air time to the red-faced man in the street simply shouting "they should just get on with it - it's what we voted for!"

It's pushed a narrative that no-deal is perfectly fine. Yellowhammer makes it clear that's not the case

 

[Wolfie]

1 hour ago, Montgolfier said:

Which are?

And how long will it take for 'perceived' to be translated into 'actual'?

 

Many and varied. Some valid, some not. I'm not going to start fighting other people's battles on here though - done that too many times before.

[ariotofmyown]

2 hours ago, maxjam said:

For what its worth I'm still patiently waiting for Brexit to be delivered - a clean break from Europe, not the crappy tied in indefinitely May deal.  

There is literally no point in engaging on this forum however as the conversation just goes round in circles and then you get called stupid or racist. 

I see a lot of leavers saying they have been called stupid or racist, but see few posts ever saying this.

Surely you are alarmed by the hedge fund Johnson donors betting on the UK economy faltering? Or the Yellowhammer report saying how the poor will suffer the most. This is new info, not arguments that have gone round in circles?