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The Politics Thread 2019


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18 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

Well this is interesting

If the official analysis of a no-deal is so terrible that more people would realise it was awful and want to stop Brexit - why would so may politicians be hell bent on the narrative of "it's what people want, so we must get on with it"?

 

Yellowhammer is a worst case scenario rather than a prediction. Once out in the open world the public view will be along the lines of seeing it as a prediction instead. Some 'heavy' stuff is in there acording to one source, such as "the government is stockpiling body bags in case of an increased mortality rate after a no-deal Brexit".

It's a bit like a report coming out saying Derby could get relegated this season. It's a worse case scenario but that doesn't mean it will happen.

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8 hours ago, FindernRam said:

I though he was the cause of most of the disorder with his blatant bias and breaking of all the conventions that have held parliament together for decades. Worst speaker in my 55 years of following politics.

He's a Tory isn't he? He certainly was.

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1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

It's a bit like a report coming out saying Derby could get relegated this season. It's a worse case scenario but that doesn't mean it will happen.

Christ - if we'd had civil servants watching the Brentford game it would a depressing report - and we'd all believe it! ?

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1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Yellowhammer is a worst case scenario rather than a prediction. Once out in the open world the public view will be along the lines of seeing it as a prediction instead. Some 'heavy' stuff is in there acording to one source, such as "the government is stockpiling body bags in case of an increased mortality rate after a no-deal Brexit".

It's a bit like a report coming out saying Derby could get relegated this season. It's a worse case scenario but that doesn't mean it will happen.

Surely they must have one that gives the land of milk and honey version too. ‘The Corbynhammer’ where everything is made to look too good to be true and most likely is.

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33 minutes ago, Van Gritters said:

Surely they must have one that gives the land of milk and honey version too. ‘The Corbynhammer’ where everything is made to look too good to be true and most likely is.

The land of milk and honey version as already been released. It's what Johnson, Farage, Rees-Mogg and the rest of the ERG mob were quoting from back in 2016.

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12 hours ago, McRamFan said:

You know that you can use the internet to find that information, occasionally it appears on TV.  Just one example.

https://www.channel4.com/press/news/brexiteer-jacob-rees-mogg-estimated-have-earnt-ps7m-investments-referendum-according

Your best bet is invest in gold, but you maybe too late, as price is maxed out for about the next 5 years, however nobody really knows.  All investment is a risk, you may lose money as likely gain.

I did use the internet. This forum is on the internet and I asked you as you seemed to have specific information of where he has his money invested. I already have a fair whack invested in good so I've got that base covered. Anyway, back to johnson. Are all his investments offshore and in what does he have his money invested? The link you provided didn't give any information. I've tried using the internet, as you've suggested, but I can't find anything that answers my question. Apologies for asking again but, as you do seem to know, if you could enlighten me I'd appreciate it. Many thanks

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6 hours ago, alexxxxx said:

I suspect this is the outcome. He goes back to Brussels gets some small concession / small change and brings it back for a vote. 

What could happen is that the EU refuse to budge on the agreed deal until a General election on the fear that nothing will be ratified by Parliament.

Well the EU are adamant that the Withdrawal Agreement isn't up for re-negotiating. However given that a N.Ireland only backstop was the EU's original  suggestion and it was only extended to all of the UK at the request of the UK government (at the insistence of the DUP) then you would think the EU should agree to the change.  While they are at it, they might agree to some other superficial changes just so Bojo could claim his deal isn't really like May's at all.

If Boris goes this route, the DUP will surely see this as an unforgivable betrayal. and hard-line Brexiteers may still consider the arrangement an inadequate Brexit.  For many others it may be the most sensible option,

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10 hours ago, bigbadbob said:

I did use the internet. This forum is on the internet and I asked you as you seemed to have specific information of where he has his money invested. I already have a fair whack invested in good so I've got that base covered. Anyway, back to johnson. Are all his investments offshore and in what does he have his money invested? The link you provided didn't give any information. I've tried using the internet, as you've suggested, but I can't find anything that answers my question. Apologies for asking again but, as you do seem to know, if you could enlighten me I'd appreciate it. Many thanks

Try harder and stop relying on google.

  @G STAR RAM thought you had quit this thread? Short chain?

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8 hours ago, Highgate said:

Well the EU are adamant that the Withdrawal Agreement isn't up for re-negotiating. However given that a N.Ireland only backstop was the EU's original  suggestion and it was only extended to all of the UK at the request of the UK government (at the insistence of the DUP) then you would think the EU should agree to the change.  While they are at it, they might agree to some other superficial changes just so Bojo could claim his deal isn't really like May's at all.

If Boris goes this route, the DUP will surely see this as an unforgivable betrayal. and hard-line Brexiteers may still consider the arrangement an inadequate Brexit.  For many others it may be the most sensible option,

Interesting isn't it?. The fact that Boris has lost his majority anyway - does that make the DUP more or less important to him?

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This will please some of the brexiteers, especially the johnny foreigner haters.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49655719

International students will be allowed to stay in the UK for two years after graduation to find a job, under new proposals announced by the Home Office.

You might stop the EU nationals from coming in, however the students will graduate and be serving your Costa Coffee to you.  So how are they going to track this?

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14 hours ago, Van Gritters said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49646544

I can’t believe he hasn’t got splinters in his arse.

You can see why Tom Watson wants a referendum first. An election instead would be Tories & Brexit on one side & Lib Dems & Greens on the other. Labour would lose out.

I can underatsnd their predicament. Corbyn wants to leave. Huge numbers of Labour voters voted leave but the party really should support remain because it'd probably be Labour voters who are hurt most by the economic fall-out (even with a softer Brexit).

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4 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

Interesting isn't it?. The fact that Boris has lost his majority anyway - does that make the DUP more or less important to him?

They are irrelevant.  They cannot sway government as even with their votes, BJ cannot whip his party and rely on the DUP to make a majority.  The DUP has nose dived in the ratings, including their core base that are staunch protestant.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-northern-ireland-voters-do-not-want-dup-tory-brexit-1.3818264

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2017/the-dup-how-northern-ireland-public-rate-leader-arlene-foster-35799165.html

NI is becoming more centralist, which is hated by the DUP and Sinn Fein, both of whom would be happy to keep the country divided.  They do not realise how out of date they are.

 

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1 hour ago, Van Wolfie said:

You can see why Tom Watson wants a referendum first. An election instead would be Tories & Brexit on one side & Lib Dems & Greens on the other. Labour would lose out.

Except an election would just be a proxy referendum anyway.

I think Corbyn’s plan is the most pragmatic approach available.

We’ve pretty much all agreed at various points on this thread that Cameron should never have called the referendum based on such an open ended idea of leaving, and with no clear achievable plan of how to leave the EU (because he banked it all on Remain winning)

So if the pledge is to go back to the drawing board and come up with a Withdrawal agreement that can command a majority and can be clearly articulated to the public exactly what “leave” means – then a second referendum would be precisely what the original referendum should have been.

Not sure why Leave voters would have a problem with this approach – in theory Leave should win by an even greater margin if it can explain the leaving process in real detail rather than just populist gut feelings and anger driving the vote

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