The Politics Thread 2019

[Igorlegend11]

2 hours ago, eddie said:

Pointless?

My point has consistently been that Brexit is an example of collective suicide whereby a majority of gullible people voted for self-destruction based entirely on a catalogue of lies. Three years on, the United Kingdom continues its downward spiral, getting closer and closer to the day when we can re-claim our title of "The sick man of Europe" - and we haven't even left yet.

 

Lies.....

1) economy will collapse Instantly

2 ) the referendum result will be respected

3) there are no plans to form an EU army.

 

Three startlingly and blatant lies.  Yet you cherry pick what predictions were made and ignore the above.  It's fine to be stubborn and ignorant.

It's fine to make points and not debate and not listen.  

Over ruling a democratic vote because the voters were "wrong" will not wash. It's not possible.  Yes UK could collapse IF the wets and remained all down tools, drop like snowflakes and melt.

However if we carry on with our lives, trade with more parts of the world, and IF EU decide to still trade with us ( they will ) then things will carry on just fine.

 

A simple question. Do you agree with an EU army.  That we would resource and provide the manpower and resources for?

If so, do you agree the 9 EU commissionaires and President of EU can deploy the UK army in the name of the EU federal state?

Final question.

Have you even considered the existence of an EU Army?

 

[sage]

15 hours ago, McRainy said:

The biggest lie of the referendum was that the establishment would respect the result. 

There is a powerful elite which does not want ordinary people to determine the course of their own lives. Once we start asking for things which interefere with profitability, then the situation is class war, pure and simple.

There is no compromise between the interests of the wealthy elite and the needs of the rest of us. The fact that someone like Richard Branson can sue the NHS for loss of profitability should tell you all you need to know. 

It is absolutely the fault of the left that they have failed to address this situation. The problem isn't the other issues which have been taken up, but the total loss of any class solidarity in tackling the root causes.

That anyone who considers themselves a socialist can back an institution like the EU is an absolute travesty. The second biggest lie of the referendum is the veneer of progressive internationalism with which the EU cloaks itself. The people who believe that are the real dupes, not those of us who have opposed the EU from the left for the last forty years. 

That's all very well but we are leaving the EU under Boris Johnson. The EU's policies are to the left of anything that CW is going to espouse.

 

[Igorlegend11]

9 hours ago, Highgate said:

How is this going to be achieved? Passport checks between N.Ireland and Britain would be enrage Unionists and they've made their implacable opposition to the notion of a border down the Irish Sea more than clear.

Incidentally I think the UK has about 4% of it's population born in other EU countries while in the Republic of Ireland that figure is roughly 8% (shortly to be reduced dramatically by Brexit).

There are no easy solutions if any.

It is not a reason to not leave the EU.

IE the risk remains the same the day before Brexit as it will be the day after Brexit.

However, the Irish border has not been a route for migrants into the UK.

I presume their is a reason the Calais based migrants have not jumped to Ireland.  Likely reason they have no money and are SAFELY looked after by the French.     If the EU is so great why do the migrants seek to come into the UK from a safe place in France ?

[McRainy]

17 minutes ago, sage said:

That's all very well but we are leaving the EU under Boris Johnson. The EU's policies are to the left of anything that CW is going to espouse.

 

I disagree that the EU's policies are to the 'left' of the Tories - both are rooted in neoliberal austerity and consequently both have resulted in a drastic shift of wealth and power to the top. 

The more important point, in any case, is what leverage the ordinary voter has to challenge such policies. Tory policies are subject to public scrutiny and public voting - not so those of the EU Commission. If you don't like Boris, you can at least vote for someone else.

The EU Parliament does not have the power to initiate policy, so there is no direct link between the citizen and the effective organ of government. This is not accidental, it is a constitutional arrangement designed to shift power from the workers to capital. Anyone who describes that in any sense as 'to the left' is... bonkers, frankly. 

To ignore the problems of neoliberalism, late capitalism and the crisis of democracy is to put your head firmly in the sand. Even if we remain in Europe, and even if that proves to be better for the economy in the short term, we cannot carry on with the same trajectory for very much longer.

I've outlined these issues in other posts, so I won't repeat them here, but just to say, look at the bigger picture, look at what is happening across the western world, and ask yourself if you really think the EU is an institution which serves the interests of democracy and the working class. 

[sage]

2 minutes ago, McRainy said:

I disagree that the EU's policies are to the 'left' of the Tories - both are rooted in neoliberal austerity and consequently both have resulted in a drastic shift of wealth and power to the top. 

The more important point, in any case, is what leverage the ordinary voter has to challenge such policies. Tory policies are subject to public scrutiny and public voting - not so those of the EU Commission. If you don't like Boris, you can at least vote for someone else.

The EU Parliament does not have the power to initiate policy, so there is no direct link between the citizen and the effective organ of government. This is not accidental, it is a constitutional arrangement designed to shift power from the workers to capital. Anyone who describes that in any sense as 'to the left' is... bonkers, frankly. 

To ignore the problems of neoliberalism, late capitalism and the crisis of democracy is to put your head firmly in the sand. Even if we remain in Europe, and even if that proves to be better for the economy in the short term, we cannot carry on with the same trajectory for very much longer.

I've outlined these issues in other posts, so I won't repeat them here, but just to say, look at the bigger picture, look at what is happening across the western world, and ask yourself if you really think the EU is an institution which serves the interests of democracy and the working class. 

It's all very well jumping out of the frying pan, but what are we jumping into?

How will the working class be better off come 1st November? 

[McRainy]

56 minutes ago, sage said:

It's all very well jumping out of the frying pan, but what are we jumping into?

How will the working class be better off come 1st November? 

I'm not saying they will, but the fight isn't just against the Tories, or even against the EU, it's against a system of capitalism which is increasingly overriding democracy, and bringing us to the brink of climate disaster.

In that context, the question of whether you or I will be a bit better or worse off in November is painfully short sighted. Our future well being does not, and cannot, depend upon the profitability of big business and indefinite economic growth. 

We need radical change, and none of our political systems are set up to facilitate it. All forms of government inherently preserve the power of capital, but some are more entrenched than others. The EU is entrenched by constitution, and so is resistant to radical reform by design. It is not possible to redress the balance of power under its control. 

If you see it differently, then please spell out your vision for where you think the EU will be in 5, 10, or 20 years time. How do you see Europe moving beyond neoliberalism and austerity under a centralised, federal system? That is something that no remainer I've spoken to has been able to do. 

[Highgate]

1 hour ago, Igorlegend11 said:

There are no easy solutions if any.

It is not a reason to not leave the EU.

IE the risk remains the same the day before Brexit as it will be the day after Brexit.

However, the Irish border has not been a route for migrants into the UK.

I presume their is a reason the Calais based migrants have not jumped to Ireland.  Likely reason they have no money and are SAFELY looked after by the French.     If the EU is so great why do the migrants seek to come into the UK from a safe place in France ?

And if that's true, then that entirely negates one of the principle reasons that some people voted for Brexit in the first place. 

The solution of putting a border down the Irish sea would enrage Unionists and would hasten a border poll.

I don't really know what relevance the migrants in Calais have to this discussion. Those people are from Iraq, Sudan, Syria and so on.  Non EU members obviously. Presumably at the moment they would find it as difficult to get into Ireland as they would the UK. 

The point about having an open border with the Republic of Ireland after a no deal Brexit is that EU migrants can gain entry into Ireland without any difficulty and travel across the open border in the UK as they wished.  Non-EU migrants are a different category altogether.

[GboroRam]

36 minutes ago, McRainy said:

I'm not saying they will, but the fight isn't just against the Tories, or even against the EU, it's against a system of capitalism which is increasingly overriding democracy, and bringing us to the brink of climate disaster.

In that context, the question of whether you or I will be a bit better or worse off in November is painfully short sighted. Our future well being does not, and cannot, depend upon the profitability of big business and indefinite economic growth. 

We need radical change, and none of our political systems are set up to facilitate it. All forms of government inherently preserve the power of capital, but some are more entrenched than others. The EU is entrenched by constitution, and so is resistant to radical reform by design. It is not possible to redress the balance of power under its control. 

If you see it differently, then please spell out your vision for where you think the EU will be in 5, 10, or 20 years time. How do you see Europe moving beyond neoliberalism and austerity under a centralised, federal system? That is something that no remainer I've spoken to has been able to do. 

I'm not opposed to leaving the EU - but only with a plan for what takes its place. At the minute it's looking like an alternative of Tory austerity and more of the same kind of thing that we got over the last 40 years, but with more economic downturn thrown in for good measure. I fully expect to return to the economic disaster of Thatcher's 80s. Unfortunately I think there's a good chunk of Brexit voters who will welcome that. 

[McRainy]

5 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

I fully expect to return to the economic disaster of Thatcher's 80s. Unfortunately I think there's a good chunk of Brexit voters who will welcome that.

What do you base that comment on, given that the majority of Brexit voters are from working class areas?

Again though, it's just project fear, isn't it. No one knows how leaving will impact the economic or political situation.

What we do know is that we're heading down the pooper anyway if we don't tackle the issues I've mentioned. 

[GboroRam]

16 minutes ago, McRainy said:

What do you base that comment on, given that the majority of Brexit voters are from working class areas?

Again though, it's just project fear, isn't it. No one knows how leaving will impact the economic or political situation.

What we do know is that we're heading down the pooper anyway if we don't tackle the issues I've mentioned. 

Everything the brexiters can't answer is project fear. 

What do I base it on? Nostalgia. A need for a perceived strong leader, who will show Johnny foreigner his place. A return to the days of military action, so a lost generation can feel manly watching news night as brave Tommy takes on the enemy. Look at the warlike lingo used by brexiters now. It's ubiquitous.

And the whole, we're screwed anyway argument doesn't cut it for me. Even if it's true it doesn't justify making bad choices. And a tory brexit is a disaster for working people in this country. 

[Igorlegend11]

1 hour ago, Highgate said:

And if that's true, then that entirely negates one of the principle reasons that some people voted for Brexit in the first place. 

The solution of putting a border down the Irish sea would enrage Unionists and would hasten a border poll.

I don't really know what relevance the migrants in Calais have to this discussion. Those people are from Iraq, Sudan, Syria and so on.  Non EU members obviously. Presumably at the moment they would find it as difficult to get into Ireland as they would the UK. 

The point about having an open border with the Republic of Ireland after a no deal Brexit is that EU migrants can gain entry into Ireland without any difficulty and travel across the open border in the UK as they wished.  Non-EU migrants are a different category altogether.

I've not explained myself sufficiently well.

Suffice to say there is no mass immigration occuring via EU into Ireland, into Northern Ireland and then into England/Wales etc.   Just like no mass movement of people from Russia across open border into EU at places such as Lithuania.

Blocking and stopping EU migration from mainland Europe into Ireland, to Northern Ireland , across sea to other UK countries was not even given any serious consideration by myself and the general population as a main consideration when voting leave or remain 

Many small tiny issues can be raised. But the situation as I describe was irrelevant as a source of migrants and also will still be irrelevant afterwards. If it becomes an issue a solution will be found.   

I quoted Calais to show the point that migrants do not, if at all, travel to Ireland, then northern Ireland then into England/Wales. 

 You understand that but think somehow other migrants are going to take that route after Brexit 

I've not even and won't check to see what stops the migrants leaving Calais for Ireland.   There will be a clear reason.

Also, many English people via Irish grand parents can get Irish and thus EU passports.   That will apply to many Irish people being able to get a UK passport, and they are allowed to cross into Northern Ireland 

I'm not aware of what controls and checks exist for passengers from Northern Ireland into England/Wales.  Whatever exists already can be modified if risk and issues occur 

If UK is allegedly doomed it's indeed a sad day that EU citizens will still want to get into the UK .... 

[GboroRam]

7 minutes ago, Igorlegend11 said:

 If UK is allegedly doomed it's indeed a sad day that EU citizens will still want to get into the UK .... 

They'll still come for the weather. 

[ketteringram]

52 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

a tory brexit is a disaster for working people in this country. 

But a Labour brexit would be OK? 

[Igorlegend11]

1 hour ago, GboroRam said:

I'm not opposed to leaving the EU - but only with a plan for what takes its place. At the minute it's looking like an alternative of Tory austerity and more of the same kind of thing that we got over the last 40 years, but with more economic downturn thrown in for good measure. I fully expect to return to the economic disaster of Thatcher's 80s. Unfortunately I think there's a good chunk of Brexit voters who will welcome that. 

It's still hard at this time to know a clear plan, as the EU can be awkward and force a hard brexit.  The EU tried to maximise their position and even dictated what was going to be talked about in what order ......

That's now clearly failed .....so it's upto EU to move on the old deal offered to get it through parliament.  Or the EU can keep to their words and attitude and force a hard brexit to occur .  As brexit will now happen a new PM is arriving 

Both UK and EU can both have short term pain of a couple of years or they can do a sensible deal for both sides.  Boris voted in favour of current deal. So it's not beyond reason for EU to budge and offer better terms 

[Highgate]

26 minutes ago, Igorlegend11 said:

I've not explained myself sufficiently well.

Suffice to say there is no mass immigration occuring via EU into Ireland, into Northern Ireland and then into England/Wales etc.   Just like no mass movement of people from Russia across open border into EU at places such as Lithuania.

Blocking and stopping EU migration from mainland Europe into Ireland, to Northern Ireland , across sea to other UK countries was not even given any serious consideration by myself and the general population as a main consideration when voting leave or remain 

 

You seem to be ignoring the fact that the situation now, with both the UK and the Republic in the EU (why would migrants bother going to the UK via Ireland at the moment? ) will be entirely different to the situation that the UK will find itself in after a no-deal Brexit.  After a no deal Brexit, the UK will need to control it's borders with the EU, just like the EU will need to control it's borders with the UK. 

You are right about the fact that the implications of Brexit regarding the UK/Republic border were almost entirely ignored in the referendum discussion itself. 

[GboroRam]

11 minutes ago, Igorlegend11 said:

It's still hard at this time to know a clear plan, as the EU can be awkward and force a hard brexit.  The EU tried to maximise their position and even dictated what was going to be talked about in what order ......

That's now clearly failed .....so it's upto EU to move on the old deal offered to get it through parliament.  Or the EU can keep to their words and attitude and force a hard brexit to occur .  As brexit will now happen a new PM is arriving 

Both UK and EU can both have short term pain of a couple of years or they can do a sensible deal for both sides.  Boris voted in favour of current deal. So it's not beyond reason for EU to budge and offer better terms 

I still find it hard to believe that brexiters think that the EU are making it hard. An agreement was reached, and the UK chose to not go through with it. 

Do I believe the rhetoric that they won't renegotiate? No, but stop fooling yourself that the UK is in a position of strength. I believe that the EU will walk away if the UK pushes hard for a different deal. They'll tinker with the WA but that's about all. The UK holds no cards. Never did. 

[McRainy]

1 hour ago, GboroRam said:

Everything the brexiters can't answer is project fear. 

What do I base it on? Nostalgia. A need for a perceived strong leader, who will show Johnny foreigner his place. A return to the days of military action, so a lost generation can feel manly watching news night as brave Tommy takes on the enemy. Look at the warlike lingo used by brexiters now. It's ubiquitous.

And the whole, we're screwed anyway argument doesn't cut it for me. Even if it's true it doesn't justify making bad choices. And a tory brexit is a disaster for working people in this country. 

I can't predict the future, and neither can you, but you're the one claiming to know, based on the establishment narrative. 

You're addressing the wrong issues in any case. The tinpot nationalism you describe is a reaction to precarity, not its cause. The shift in power, the extreme shift in wealth, disenfranchisement, global instability, climate change, these are the issues which we are screwed if they aren't addressed. 

The causes are neoliberal economics and austerity, which the EU is constitutionally designed to implement. I can't make that point strongly enough, because no one on the remain side is answering it. If we stay with the EU, we WILL get more of the same, and it's a one way ticket to disaster. 

Leaving is not a bad choice, it's the only sane choice. I'll say it again, because you are not addressing it, we CANNOT continue with unbridled economic growth, that model is broken. If we are going to be 'worse off' in terms of our bloated consumer lifestyles, then good, it needs to happen, and fast.

Our political system is not fit for purpose, it has to change. The ease with which we relinquish our hard earned democratic rights is frightening. Do you know what oligarchy looks like? It looks like Richard Branson suing the NHS, because his right to make a profit takes precedence over the right of the sick to receive treatment. It looks like the right of corporations to sue governments if environmental legislation impacts profitability; the power to destroy our world and make us pay for it, to sustain an obscene level of wealth for a tiny minority. 

This isn't project fear, it's happening now, and the EU is rewriting the rules, behind closed doors, to make sure we can do nothing about it. Genuine question, how bad does it have to get before you sit up and take notice?

[Van der MoodHoover]

9 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

I still find it hard to believe that brexiters think that the EU are making it hard. An agreement was reached, and the UK chose to not go through with it. 

Do I believe the rhetoric that they won't renegotiate? No, but stop fooling yourself that the UK is in a position of strength. I believe that the EU will walk away if the UK pushes hard for a different deal. They'll tinker with the WA but that's about all. The UK holds no cards. Never did. 

And this is the nub of the debate. The circulatory argument that BJ and JH keep propagating. 

All the EU has done is to set out its negotiating principles and then work very hard to maintain unity of the 27.

The UK came up with its red lines. And so here we are.

Unless the new PM is now going to move on one or more of those lines then why would the EU renegotiate? In fact there is no basis. 

Tweaking the political declaration isn't renegotiating either.

Neither of the 2 candidates can deliver anything new without moving the red lines imo. 

[Igorlegend11]

27 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

I still find it hard to believe that brexiters think that the EU are making it hard. An agreement was reached, and the UK chose to not go through with it. 

Do I believe the rhetoric that they won't renegotiate? No, but stop fooling yourself that the UK is in a position of strength. I believe that the EU will walk away if the UK pushes hard for a different deal. They'll tinker with the WA but that's about all. The UK holds no cards. Never did. 

That's where we disagree. The EU federal project will suffer far more than the UK. That's why they offered an extension hoping we would cave in and accept a bad deal.

We haven't caved in. The objective and hope of all UK citizens should be that a deal satisfactory to the UK is struck.  Yet so many MP's and parties have tried to overturn brexit instead of being on the side of the UK government and if so then such a lousy deal would not have been entertained by the then UK PM. She tried to deliver the democratic wish of the UK people and bowed way to much to the EU.

The notion the EU hold all the cards is a fallacy. They lose 39billion pounds if there is no transition. We never ever agreed to pay that money. Only the EU could waste a year talking about money that was only ever payable if the subsequent rest of discussions lead to a deal.  

They end up with an open border in Ireland. Destroying their federal club. Irish citizens will be able to drive into the UK and buy non EU goods.   That's something the EU have to accept.

They were so well prepared for a hard brexit so much so they let us stay in! 

The EU now know we will leave by a hard brexit.  They have a choice 

AND as the major remaining EU power Germany will in fact step in where the federal system of commissionaires  has failed and Germany will insist the UK concessions are made.  Because they have an awful lot to lose. 

 

[Igorlegend11]

55 minutes ago, Highgate said:

You seem to be ignoring the fact that the situation now, with both the UK and the Republic in the EU (why would migrants bother going to the UK via Ireland at the moment? ) will be entirely different to the situation that the UK will find itself in after a no-deal Brexit.  After a no deal Brexit, the UK will need to control it's borders with the EU, just like the EU will need to control it's borders with the UK. 

You are right about the fact that the implications of Brexit regarding the UK/Republic border were almost entirely ignored in the referendum discussion itself. 

I get the point. And I can't see Ireland being happy at migrants meandering through. And I am certain the Northern Irish don't want migrants meandering around their country.

It's a similar issue to the French initially saying they would withdraw border controls around Calais.   They won't. Because if they do we will re introduce the French to international law and borders.  And advise them to better educate their new found EU  citizens they are safely keeping and feeding.

But non if the above us sufficient to stop the UK returning to a democratic state, able to trade with whom we wish in the world.