The Politics Thread 2019

[Ghost of Clough]

34 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

Ironically I only started making terrible wordplay jokes after I ate a small chocolate covered biscuit bar.

It was a Punguin

[1of4]

Johnson meets Juncker today still insisting he can get a deal.

To get a deal he'll need to resolve the problem that scuppered May getting her deal through Parliament. So what will his solution be for the Irish border and will he be able to get Parliament to agree to it.

As Johnson actually got a working solution to the Irish problem? Is his claim to want a deal  just a sham and that he's more interested in forcing through a no deal brexit.

[Wolfie]

16 minutes ago, 1of4 said:

Johnson meets Juncker today still insisting he can get a deal.

To get a deal he'll need to resolve the problem that scuppered May getting her deal through Parliament. So what will his solution be for the Irish border and will he be able to get Parliament to agree to it.

I would imagine that now he doesn't need the DUP's support, he could be going back to the original EU idea of the border in the Irish Sea - which wouldn't need to be negotiated as such, with it being the EU's suggestion in the first place.

As for getting it through parliament, I would guess that this type of deal would probably get through.

Quote

As Johnson actually got a working solution to the Irish problem? Is his claim to want a deal  just a sham and that he's more interested in forcing through a no deal brexit.

As above but yes, it could all be a sham of course. Going into an election having successfully negotiated a softer Brexit would still mean the Tories losing votes to Farage. With a decision to be made concerning Party (Hard Brexit) vs Country (Agree a deal), I think we can all agree it'll be whatever he thinks will be best for Boris anyway.

[1of4]

21 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

I would imagine that now he doesn't need the DUP's support, he could be going back to the original EU idea of the border in the Irish Sea - which wouldn't need to be negotiated as such, with it being the EU's suggestion in the first place.

Wether we end up with the original back stop deal, a border in the Irish Sea deal or heaven forbid a hard border in Ireland due to leaving with no deal. Any solution is going to antagonize one or another section of the Irish community. That could easily result into the return of the troubles and the possible deaths of many innocent people.

[Ghost of Clough]

52 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

I would imagine that now he doesn't need the DUP's support, he could be going back to the original EU idea of the border in the Irish Sea - which wouldn't need to be negotiated as such, with it being the EU's suggestion in the first place.

As for getting it through parliament, I would guess that this type of deal would probably get through.

As above but yes, it could all be a sham of course. Going into an election having successfully negotiated a softer Brexit would still mean the Tories losing votes to Farage. With a decision to be made concerning Party (Hard Brexit) vs Country (Agree a deal), I think we can all agree it'll be whatever he thinks will be best for Boris anyway.

But likely to reclaim some from Lib Dems and Labour too

[Stive Pesley]

5 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

But likely to reclaim some from Lib Dems and Labour too

Lib Dems is an interesting one.

They now have quite a few ex-Tory MPs in their ranks - who you would be hard pushed to describe as "liberal"

And they have pledged to revoke A50 despite the fact that Leave won the referendum - hardly very "democratic"

 

[Wolfie]

24 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

But likely to reclaim some from Lib Dems and Labour too

I'll give you Lib Dems but have the Tories lost votes to Labour over Brexit?. I don't see how, seeing as nobody knows what Labour actually think about it.

[Wolfie]

20 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

Lib Dems is an interesting one.

They now have quite a few ex-Tory MPs in their ranks - who you would be hard pushed to describe as "liberal"

And they have pledged to revoke A50 despite the fact that Leave won the referendum - hardly very "democratic"

 

Yeah, I'm suprised by that one. Mind you, it's only if they win a majority in a General Election - which aint going to happen.

[GboroRam]

59 minutes ago, 1of4 said:

Wether we end up with the original back stop deal, a border in the Irish Sea deal or heaven forbid a hard border in Ireland due to leaving with no deal. Any solution is going to antagonize one or another section of the Irish community. That could easily result into the return of the troubles and the possible deaths of many innocent people.

This is the backstop - which is only relevant if there is no agreement. So I imagine they will argue that they will come to a mutually acceptable deal and not resort to a hard border. Spend a couple of years negotiating, and both sides walk away from the table claiming to have the better side of the deal. 

Frankly the whole thing was a storm in a tea cup anyway. Did people truly believe that the EU were trying to lock the UK in? 

[Uptherams]

21 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

Yeah, I'm suprised by that one. Mind you, it's only if they win a majority in a General Election - which aint going to happen.

They're doing it to gain more seats. Which puts the Conservatives and Brexit party in the perfect position to win seats all across the UK. I believe what some pollsters are saying, if those two join forces, they could have a 100 seat majority, which is good for the country, because a government could actually get on with delivering in general. 

[Stive Pesley]

40 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

 I believe what some pollsters are saying, if those two join forces, they could have a 100 seat majority, which is good for the country, because a government could actually get on with delivering in general. 

the fact we have reached a stage where it's perceived as "good" simply to have a functioning parliament, even if the stuff they are delivering is awful. At least they are delivering *something* - suggests that the article @maxjam posted is not at all wide of the mark. The scenario you describe would almost certainly be the most authoritarian right wing government we've ever seen, with people so sick of politics that we no longer even care.

[Uptherams]

25 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

the fact we have reached a stage where it's perceived as "good" simply to have a functioning parliament, even if the stuff they are delivering is awful. At least they are delivering *something* - suggests that the article @maxjam posted is not at all wide of the mark. The scenario you describe would almost certainly be the most authoritarian right wing government we've ever seen, with people so sick of politics that we no longer even care.

Lol. Come off it. There has been no real shift on that side. It's the left in every Western nation that has shifted. The centre left has said and done the things that the centre right are, im the last few decades. 

[GboroRam]

I'm confused. Is the EU hideously strong, or about to collapse any minute now, like I've been told on here for the last 5 years? 

[Van der MoodHoover]

6 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

I'm confused. Is the EU hideously strong, or about to collapse any minute now, like I've been told on here for the last 5 years? 

Its only Juncker who's abut to collapse as he's permanently sozzled.

That German lady Ursula von der Layen has barely started so a bit early to start tarring her with any kind of brush.....

[Uptherams]

1 hour ago, GboroRam said:

I'm confused. Is the EU hideously strong, or about to collapse any minute now, like I've been told on here for the last 5 years? 

Answer us this. With Germany on the brink of recession and the riots in France and potential downturn in the short-term, due to Brexit. Where is the EU's money going to come from? We are leaving behind a huge void. 

[ketteringram]

1 hour ago, Uptherams said:

Answer us this. With Germany on the brink of recession and the riots in France and potential downturn in the short-term, due to Brexit. Where is the EU's money going to come from? We are leaving behind a huge void. 

They'll just print it. Oh, and negative interest rates.

[GboroRam]

1 hour ago, Uptherams said:

 We are leaving behind a huge void. 

The entire EU budget is not even 1/10th of German's national budget / public spending.

The UK's contribution to the EU budget would not even make up 0.03% of Germany's budget. 

The Netherlands could pay the entire UK contribution and not materially affect their government spending. Spain could. Italy could.

[Uptherams]

12 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

The entire EU budget is not even 1/10th of German's national budget / public spending.

The UK's contribution to the EU budget would not even make up 0.03% of Germany's budget. 

The Netherlands could pay the entire UK contribution and not materially affect their government spending. Spain could. Italy could.

So the Germans will pay? Someone's got to haven't they. You think the French or German citizens would simply be okay with having to pay more tax to fund the EU? 

[Uptherams]

26 minutes ago, ketteringram said:

They'll just print it. Oh, and negative interest rates.

So they'll manipulate their currency. The trump administration will love that stick to beat the EU with. 

[GboroRam]

4 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

So the Germans will pay? Someone's got to haven't they. You think the French or German citizens would simply be okay with having to pay more tax to fund the EU? 

The obvious answers are they will either cut back spending and/or increase payments to members. What I was outlining was the relatively small figures, which are being painted as something different. The EU is going to be fine without the UK contributions, despite the protestations of the Brexit supporters. And just when is the EU going to collapse? Must be happening any day now. Its been teetering for years now. Surprised that the telegraph are now telling us how powerful the EU is. Can it be both? Can the right make their minds up?