Mel Morris to put the club up for sale SHOULD Derby fail to win promotion....

[Rev]

2 minutes ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

'Ramblur went off on one because statements about the accounts were his personal domain and he openly contemptuous and rude to others who strayed into that territory.'

Totally agree with this .  As a qualified statistician and forecaster for business, I put forward a quick financial viewpoint and he bothered me about it for four days non stop in a not very pleasant way, after a while I lost my rag and gave back more than I would have liked just to put a stop to it.

That was pretty much how it seemed to me too.

I'd qualify it however by pointing out he wasn't a well man, and as his short temper seemed out of keeping with the patience he'd displayed previously it may not have been entirely in his control, for whatever reason.

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

Just now, KCG said:

Are you a qualified accountant?

No, I do have a degree in business economics and an Msc in financial forecasting, obviously this involves reviewing a lot of profit and loss account's and balance sheets.  I could have completed the AAT when I was twenty five as I could have gone straight to the final year, decided I couldn't be arsed as I didn't really need it with the other stuff.  I was quite a late developer regarding further education to be honest and didn't really bother till I turned 19. Far to much fun to be had in the world of nightclub promotion.

 

 

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

31 minutes ago, KCG said:

Are you a qualified accountant?

Sorry, didn't ask why you were interested.  I can recommend a few if you need one . Always best getting one up to date on the latest rules for Limited Liability Partnerships and Director's loans . 

[Ramet]

7 hours ago, RamNut said:

With respect that isn't true. Not from my perspective anyway.

At the time the message from ramblur and others was that the club was debt free, and compliance with ffp wasn't a problem.

Without wishing to revisit the arguments etc, i posted the overall company accounts, which showed significant annual losses and £95m of debt to MM. I stated that i wasn't an accountant but that the overall picture seemed problematic to put it mildly. Ramblur went off on one because statements about the accounts were his personal domain and he openly contemptuous and rude to others who strayed into that territory. (I avoided responding in kind, but by then he was taking verbal pot shots at numerous people including mods). Putting the tantrums aside, i still believe that the fundamental business model of a championship football club does not work. Billionaire owners are losing millions and clubs are struggling to comply with Ffp. 

It was interesting to see a shift this season and to hear stories of austerity measures at the club and the academy. Good news as far as i was concerned. We also had one particular poster giving us what appeared to be good inside info, praising the executive and announcing that we had agreed our ffp  position - we seemed to be absolutely at the limit.

without looking up the specific figures, the approximate summary of our position seemed to be somthing like (from  memmory)

• turnover @£25m
• wages @£37m 
• overall annual loss @£25m

The points i was making were headline issues rather than accountancy detail.

• all transfer fees have to be funded by sales
• we need to massively reduce the wage bill
• mel is funding excessive unsustainable losses 

Fundamentally the problem is that television money in the prem has caused salaries to mushroom. That affected the salaries payable in the championship too. But the television money was not distributed to championship clubs in equal measure to offset those salary increases. Unless this situation changes, the financial model won't work. The only way to avoid having huge losses is to significantly cut the wage bill. 

Furthermore championship clubs cannot afford to pay transfer fees therefore the strategy is inevitably based on the development of academy players, freebies and loans. We have a great thread full of suggestions for signings, but there is no way we can afford the fees for most of those players. Not a very nice position to be in. 

this season we have made moves to promote and develop academy players. We have made some good signings on low fees - especially holmes, (and i remain hopeful with regards to evans). The financial position will be much improved when the out of contract high earners are released. However....i don't personally understand splashing £5m on any player. We are caught in a predicament - chasing promotion on the one hand, and trying to fix the broken financial model on the other.

Given all of the above, the rumours of mel looking for help, and seeming to conclude that he cannot continue to fund the losse, does not surprise me. The financial realities won't go away unless we fluke a promotion and then the financial landscape is totally different. (Chelsea's turnover for example is £325. £300m per season more than ours. And a huge chunk of that increased income is tv money). 

So where do we go?

we could compare ourselves to sheff utd and swansea.

Swansea won't get many accolades this season, but they have promoted four academy players to the first team - roberts, rodon, mcburnie and james. The difference is that their young players are 21-22. Ours are 19. We might be two years behind. once we concluded that the previous generation of guy, vernam, hanson, kwarme thomas, farrend rawson etc were not going to be good enough, it set us back a bit. 

Sheff utd have operated a very frugal acquisitions policy. (Compare mcgoldrick on a freebie to waggers at £5m). Signings like holmes and evans are what we can afford. They won't all work, but fans need to understand the financial realities and show some tolerance. The raging away fans at aston villa might do well to think about our financial position as compared to aston villa who have had premier league income and parachute monies. I think villa might get promoted this year, but if they don't then ultimately they will have to face the same financial conundrum as everyone else, and slash and burn.

 

A very well put post.i agree we just about all of it.

[AdamRam]

8 hours ago, KCG said:

Are you a qualified accountant?

Does that mean you have to be a qualified manager to post on anything about football ?

[G STAR RAM]

Financial results due to be published over the next week or so. 

Wonder if MM has called this fans forum to get the bad news out into the public domain rather than waiting until the accounts are published?

[Spanish]

11 hours ago, RamNut said:

 

However....i don't personally understand splashing £5m on any player. We are caught in a predicament - chasing promotion on the one hand, and trying to fix the broken financial model on the other.

 

 

I agree with all of your comments fwiw.

for me this comment is significant in terms of the model going forward.  if you buy a player you have to be pretty damn sure you can sell him for close to what you bought him for before his contract ends or you achieve promotion.  The advantage that relegated clubs get is only going to increase as FFP starts to hit.  Next season is likely to see a number of championship clubs on the naughty step and looking to the academy(long term)/loans (short term) solutions.

[cheron85]

11 hours ago, RamNut said:

At the time the message from ramblur and others was that the club was debt free, and compliance with ffp wasn't a problem.

Without wishing to revisit the arguments etc, i posted the overall company accounts, which showed significant annual losses and £95m of debt to MM. I stated that i wasn't an accountant but that the overall picture seemed problematic to put it mildly. Ramblur went off on one because statements about the accounts were his personal domain and he openly contemptuous and rude to others who strayed into that territory. (I avoided responding in kind, but by then he was taking verbal pot shots at numerous people including mods). Putting the tantrums aside, i still believe that the fundamental business model of a championship football club does not work. Billionaire owners are losing millions and clubs are struggling to comply with Ffp. 

There's always a difference between the accounts and 'the accounts' and I think most of the time ramblur was reading between the lines of what he saw - 3 years ago we weren't worried about FFP at all - But at that time I would imagine the asset value of players like Johnson and Butterfield was still pretty strong - No-one was assuming we'd have to just wipe £10m off the books at some point

Also, I know @reveldevil mentioned it but the guy was pretty open about his illness - And how it affected his moods - I remember reading posts where I thought he'd gone a bit OTT and then a couple of hours later he'd post something much calmer

10 hours ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

Totally agree with this .  As a qualified statistician and forecaster for business, I put forward a quick financial viewpoint and he bothered me about it for four days non stop in a not very pleasant way, after a while I lost my rag and gave back more than I would have liked just to put a stop to it.

As above - Might be that since your expertise is in watching out for the future you'd considered the 3-5 years implications of assets losing value - Whereas ramblur was just analysing the accounts he saw in front of him?

1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said:

Financial results due to be published over the next week or so. 

Wonder if MM has called this fans forum to get the bad news out into the public domain rather than waiting until the accounts are published?

I'd like to think it might be a bit of PR - Leak it that everything is utterly dreadful so that when they publish an okay-ish set of books people are still like "well, we still can't spend big this summer since we could be in a really bad position"

 

Just a thought - If Morris was actively trying to sell wouldn't he be crowing about how good a position we're in financially? "Oh yeh, have you seen this awesomely debt-free, profitable club here? Basically runs itself you know... Easy and brilliant investment for anyone"

On the other hand - If I were wanting to BUY a club I'd be spreading rumours that it was terribly run, losing so much money, needs a saviour to step in and take the reigns - Interesting that rumours have been about American investment, from the Times, a newspaper owned by Murdoch, who also owns Fox news...

#conspiracy101

[Stive Pesley]

11 hours ago, RamNut said:

i still believe that the fundamental business model of a championship football club does not work. Billionaire owners are losing millions and clubs are struggling to comply with Ffp. 

Fundamentally the problem is that television money in the prem has caused salaries to mushroom. That affected the salaries payable in the championship too. But the television money was not distributed to championship clubs in equal measure to offset those salary increases. Unless this situation changes, the financial model won't work.

Yep - And to be fair, this is exactly what MM has been talking about openly for a while now. His whole campaign about the Championship TV monies being the prime example. He can see these problems and he wants to fix them, but if he can't fix them then what's the point of him continuing to invest in the club (aka continue to lose millions on the gamble of promotion)?

The difficulty I see with the situation is that it's almost too transparent. Very rich people will only invest if they see an opportunity, and Mel's tenure so far has shown that promotion is far from a foregone conclusion just from throwing money at it. Where is the incentive for an investor really? Essentially the pitch is "help me fund this club and cross your fingers that next season might be the one". Ain't no dragons buying that

 

[Rev]

Relevent article from the Accrington Stanley owner.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-6831921/amp/Accrington-owner-Andy-Holt-horrified-footballs-skewed-finances.html

[Ghost of Clough]

13 hours ago, RamNut said:

With respect that isn't true. Not from my perspective anyway.

At the time the message from ramblur and others was that the club was debt free, and compliance with ffp wasn't a problem.

Without wishing to revisit the arguments etc, i posted the overall company accounts, which showed significant annual losses and £95m of debt to MM. I stated that i wasn't an accountant but that the overall picture seemed problematic to put it mildly. Ramblur went off on one because statements about the accounts were his personal domain and he openly contemptuous and rude to others who strayed into that territory. (I avoided responding in kind, but by then he was taking verbal pot shots at numerous people including mods). Putting the tantrums aside, i still believe that the fundamental business model of a championship football club does not work. Billionaire owners are losing millions and clubs are struggling to comply with Ffp. 

My memory of it was along the lines of someone stating the club was massively in debt and if Mel walks away we'll be in trouble. Ramblur stated the debt didn't belong to the club so it wasn't and issue. 

Quote

It was interesting to see a shift this season and to hear stories of austerity measures at the club and the academy. Good news as far as i was concerned. We also had one particular poster giving us what appeared to be good inside info, praising the executive and announcing that we had agreed our ffp  position - we seemed to be absolutely at the limit.

without looking up the specific figures, the approximate summary of our position seemed to be somthing like (from  memmory)

• turnover @£25m
• wages @£37m 
• overall annual loss @£25m

2017 accounts (10 month period)

• Turnover - £29m
  • Match receipts £8.675m
  • TV and Broadcasting  £7.918m
  • Merchandising £275k
  • Programme sales and related activities £200k
  • Commercial and Hospitality £4.082m
  • Sponsorship £5.014m
  • Other Income £2.866m
• Total staff costs - £34.6m
• Overall loss - £21m

FYI academy costs are approximately £6.26m

Interestingly, we were shown to be owed £20,388,185( £20,104,843 being receivable within 1 year), and we owed £17,219,135m ( with £8,077,925  being payable inside a year).

Quote

The points i was making were headline issues rather than accountancy detail.

• all transfer fees have to be funded by sales
• we need to massively reduce the wage bill
• mel is funding excessive unsustainable losses 

Fundamentally the problem is that television money in the prem has caused salaries to mushroom. That affected the salaries payable in the championship too. But the television money was not distributed to championship clubs in equal measure to offset those salary increases. Unless this situation changes, the financial model won't work. The only way to avoid having huge losses is to significantly cut the wage bill. 

I agree with this. But, looking at Burton, I remember seeing they posted a c£500k profit last year. They went down (just) but if they had a turnover like ours they would have done pretty well for themselves and finished much higher

Quote

Furthermore championship clubs cannot afford to pay transfer fees therefore the strategy is inevitably based on the development of academy players, freebies and loans. We have a great thread full of suggestions for signings, but there is no way we can afford the fees for most of those players. Not a very nice position to be in. 

this season we have made moves to promote and develop academy players. We have made some good signings on low fees - especially holmes, (and i remain hopeful with regards to evans). The financial position will be much improved when the out of contract high earners are released. However....i don't personally understand splashing £5m on any player. We are caught in a predicament - chasing promotion on the one hand, and trying to fix the broken financial model on the other.

Given all of the above, the rumours of mel looking for help, and seeming to conclude that he cannot continue to fund the losse, does not surprise me. The financial realities won't go away unless we fluke a promotion and then the financial landscape is totally different. (Chelsea's turnover for example is £325. £300m per season more than ours. And a huge chunk of that increased income is tv money). 

So where do we go?

we could compare ourselves to sheff utd and swansea.

Swansea won't get many accolades this season, but they have promoted four academy players to the first team - roberts, rodon, mcburnie and james. The difference is that their young players are 21-22. Ours are 19. We might be two years behind. once we concluded that the previous generation of guy, vernam, hanson, kwarme thomas, farrend rawson etc were not going to be good enough, it set us back a bit. 

Vernam and Hanson sold and Rawson released last summer, Thomas released in 2016. Guy was loaned out in the summer and sold in Jan. "setting us back" is a bit harsh. Hanson was a valuable squad player during Clement's season (18 league apps) and provided decent emergency backup during the rest of the time. Guy spent a large portion of his time with us out on loan. They were in and around the U23s when we didn't have other prospects ready for that age group.

It's what we should expect. A few players go out on loan and if they don't cut the mustard they're sold on. The odd player skips straight in to the first team picture (such as Bird). Some are released before playing a competitive game (either at Derby or out on loan).

Quote

Sheff utd have operated a very frugal acquisitions policy. (Compare mcgoldrick on a freebie to waggers at £5m). Signings like holmes and evans are what we can afford. They won't all work, but fans need to understand the financial realities and show some tolerance. The raging away fans at aston villa might do well to think about our financial position as compared to aston villa who have had premier league income and parachute monies. I think villa might get promoted this year, but if they don't then ultimately they will have to face the same financial conundrum as everyone else, and slash and burn.

 

Sheff Utd - spent smart but still splashed £4m on Egan and £2m on Norwood last summer due to receiving £10m for Brooks. They also spent £5m the previous season despite not receiving anything from sales.

[Ghost of Clough]

1 hour ago, reveldevil said:

Relevent article from the Accrington Stanley owner.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-6831921/amp/Accrington-owner-Andy-Holt-horrified-footballs-skewed-finances.html

"Championship clubs will lose a total of around £400m this year. Only three go up and the prize for them is a basic of £300m in broadcasting rights. They can't all go up. They're mugs."

When it's put like that....

[Stive Pesley]

1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

My memory of it was along the lines of someone stating the club was massively in debt and if Mel walks away we'll be in trouble. Ramblur stated the debt didn't belong to the club so it wasn't and issue.

Not necessarily an issue for us as fans, but certainly an issue for MM. If he ever did want to just walk away, he'd have to write that debt off. Is he rich enough to do that? Possibly but you can bet that is an option he really wouldn't want to take

And so he's painted into a corner a little bit if no one wants to pay off those loans for him as part of any investment or buy out deal- he has to keep funding the club and the longer he does that, the less attractive the prospect of walking away with nothing is.

I wonder what the true value of the club is? £1 + pay off the £90m MM has loaned is not the true value

[Spanish]

26 minutes ago, StivePesley said:

Not necessarily an issue for us as fans, but certainly an issue for MM. If he ever did want to just walk away, he'd have to write that debt off. Is he rich enough to do that? Possibly but you can bet that is an option he really wouldn't want to take

And so he's painted into a corner a little bit if no one wants to pay off those loans for him as part of any investment or buy out deal- he has to keep funding the club and the longer he does that, the less attractive the prospect of walking away with nothing is.

I wonder what the true value of the club is? £1 + pay off the £90m MM has loaned is not the true value

ahh but who do you find to cover the monthly running costs

[North East Ram]

What an absolute load of tosh is being spouted in the news. There’s so called ‘sources’ saying we’re losing £3m per month. Sources? BS?

Now talksport have a whole segment about FL and the demise of Derby. And to substantiate this ‘story’ they get James Nursey of the Daily Mirror to state that:

FL is known to be off in the summer - probably Chelsea as they have a transfer ban and he’ll nurture the youth talent.

FL has Derby playing an attacking and exciting brand of football (not for a while imo) but contradicts himself by saying how we are playing poorly (nearer the truth).

MM is desperate to get out of Derby as he’s losing millions per month and most of our players are either leaving or looking to leave in the summer.

Oppo fans are all singing about our annual implosion (he heard a rude song at notts).

Then you read this journo’s recent story online and you begin to see the story fitting the narrative. Speculation and conjecture with a wild hope that some of the forecasts come true. If you throw enough poo etc etc.

Plenty of mentions again of ‘our sources said’ and ‘Mirror Sport understands’. 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/staggering-amount-derby-owner-mel-14167830

Spouting vague balls 24/7 used to be the job of ‘the bloke down the pub’. Now it’s a profession. 

[Spanish]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bucktoo said:

What an absolute load of tosh is being spouted in the news. There’s so called ‘sources’ saying we’re losing £3m per month. Sources? BS?

Now talksport have a whole segment about FL and the demise of Derby. And to substantiate this ‘story’ they get James Nursey of the Daily Mirror to state that:

FL is known to be off in the summer - probably Chelsea as they have a transfer ban and he’ll nurture the youth talent.

FL has Derby playing an attacking and exciting brand of football (not for a while imo) but contradicts himself by saying how we are playing poorly (nearer the truth).

MM is desperate to get out of Derby as he’s losing millions per month and most of our players are either leaving or looking to leave in the summer.

Oppo fans are all singing about our annual implosion (he heard a rude song at notts).

Then you read this journo’s recent story online and you begin to see the story fitting the narrative. Speculation and conjecture with a wild hope that some of the forecasts come true. If you throw enough poo etc etc.

Plenty of mentions again of ‘our sources said’ and ‘Mirror Sport understands’. 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/staggering-amount-derby-owner-mel-14167830

Spouting vague balls 24/7 used to be the job of ‘the bloke down the pub’. Now it’s a profession. 

not surprising though is it, silence from MM and the club are probably justified but doesn't help.  we have to wait for the fans forum I think.  Personally I don't think the article is far off just sensationalised to make good reading for the mirror man/woman.  He could probably have added something along the lines that Derby's season started to nose dive once MM told FL of his intentions which were different to those promised before his arrival.  The championship has potential to collapse in the next 2 years and only those that have been very prudent with carrying values or you can rely on parachute money

[KCG]

14 hours ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

Sorry, didn't ask why you were interested.  I can recommend a few if you need one . Always best getting one up to date on the latest rules for Limited Liability Partnerships and Director's loans . 

So, the answer is NO then. I thought so. Are you an expert on FFP? Are you an expert on Mel's finances? Are you in the know about his mindset?

All these questions apply to everyone else who considers themselves an expert.

We might or might not be in serious financial trouble. I don't do uninformed conjecture, but many here do, so it seems.

[Wolfie20]

Some people will believe anything they read in the media, whether it's newspapers, radio or the various social media platforms. Some posting that they think it's the truth (or close to their unsubstantiated opinion) keep droning on and on, picking up any little tit bit which might make others come round to their way of thinking.

I feel it's highly unlikely that any forum member knows the real situation and even less likely some hack from the Daily Mirror or a radio station such as Talk Sport, after all they need rumours and gossip to fuel their fire otherwise they may as well shut up shop.

[Ramet]

26 minutes ago, Spanish said:

not surprising though is it, silence from MM and the club are probably justified but doesn't help.  we have to wait for the fans forum I think.  Personally I don't think the article is far off just sensationalised to make good reading for the mirror man/woman.  He could probably have added something along the lines that Derby's season started to nose dive once MM told FL of his intentions which were different to those promised before his arrival.  The championship has potential to collapse in the next 2 years and only those that have been very prudent with carrying values or you can rely on parachute money

Papers bless them anything to sell o story however there is a little truth and the its to do with the losses it is deffo close to 3mil a month.

[Stive Pesley]

25 minutes ago, Spanish said:

ahh but who do you find to cover the monthly running costs

Well you'd expect anyone who buys us for £1 to do their due diligence and understand the monthly running costs. If they want to put £xmillion in per month going forward then that's up to them

What I'm saying is that past "loans" by MM to fund the running costs have no correlation to the actual value of the club. You can't say that the club gets £3m per month more valuable can you? The fact MM is reportedly offering the club for £1 to anyone who will pay back his loans suggests that the value of the club has surpassed the amount he has already lent

The other option would be to sell for £1 to anyone willing to take on the future running costs. MM then sits on his loan and asks for the money back when we get promoted