Title Race

[Marriot Ram99]

18 minutes ago, plymouthram said:

The title race, the top 7 and who they have got to play in the current top half of the table. Leeds have=Swansea,WBA,Bristol,Sheff utd, Birmingham and Villa. Norwich=Bristol,Swansea,Hull,M'boro,Blackburn and Villa. Sheffield utd=M'boro,WBA,Leeds,Bristol,Forest,Hull and Birmingham. WBA=Forest,Villa,Sheff utd,Leeds,Swansea,Birmingham,Bristol,Hull and Derby.Middlesbrough=Sheff utd,Blackburn,Villa,Hull,  Norwich,Bristol,Swansea and Forest. Bristol=Norwich,Birmingham,Leeds,Sheff utd,M'boro,WBA,Villa,Hull and Derby. The Rams have Forest, Villa,Swansea,Blackburn,Birmingham,Bristol and WBA. I have gone as far down as 13th(Blackburn) on 43 pts because they are only 7 points off a play off place.

I have noticed since Leeds beat us and spygate they have drawn 1 and lost 3(one of those in the cup) and have won none. So based on Leeds don't spy any more, Sheff utd have still 4 of the current top 6 to play, Bristol have won 8 games on the bounce and are due some poor form, M'boro draw too many games and don't score enough goals. I think Norwich will go up in 1st place and the other automatic place down to WBA or Derby.

If it is between us and West Brom for 2nd, the last  game of the season will be a nail biter, Bristol City 2nd to last game will be tough as well.

[DesertRam]

18 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

The facts are, nobody has a clue how the table will end up. Those that make the auto's or go up through the play-offs are good enough to go up (whether they're good enough to stay up is another matter and largely influenced by the summer transfer window). 

Agreed, we haven't shown much yet but two months ago who would have expected Bristol to be in the play-off places and Hull to be in the chasing pack? 

If we do go up, we probably stand a better chance of staying there than most, due to FLs pulling power

and Mels ability to back him financially. That's my 2penneth anyway.

[Carl Sagan]

16 games to go. The top 2 are currently projected to get 87 (Norwich) and 86 (Leeds) points. We're not going to make up goal difference now, so we're effectively an extra point behind everyone else. I'm hoping 87 points would see us sneak an automatic place. That means 12 wins from the remaining games, starting on Wednesday. 

I'd expect (at least) 5 of the current top 7 to make the final top 6 places, with (up to) 2 dropping away and at most 1 team coming out of the chasing pack. Playoffs are currently projected to be 77 points but that seems very high. I'd expect 74 to be enough, which probably means winning 7 of the remaining games. 

A month from now, 6 league games on, we'll have a much clearer idea if we're really in the hunt. We really need to win 5 of those next 6 to still be in with a good shout of automatics. 

 

[SKRam]

12 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Missed a 93rd minute penalty ?

Incredible! Thought they’d score that so I could have a smug smile...... then realised if I’d had a bet. ?

[Sith Happens]

On current form Bristol City are well within a shout. But then we havent put a run together really all season. It would be so nice to put a 6 or 7 game winning run together now. To be 8 points behind is nothing really especially when no one is running away with it.

On current form though its amazing leeds are still top. You would think if their run continues for another few games they will soon be dropping fast down the table.

 

[GlastoEls]

Great point about not really having a run all season.  Hadn’t thought of that.

[therealhantsram]

Just thought I'd compare this season to last. Apart from the runaway leaders last season, the points to date for other positions is remarkably similar. Last season Fulham and Cardiff pushed each other all the way.  At this stage they had 55 and 52 points respectively (Fulham having played a game more).

It does seem to support the notion that both top two slots are absolutely up fro grabs this season and ANY of the top 7 could make a good run and finish in the top 2.

 

[ram1964]

9 hours ago, DesertRam said:

If we do go up, we probably stand a better chance of staying there than most, due to FLs pulling power

and Mels ability to back him financially. That's my 2penneth anyway.

Well if that's all you can afford thank fook  Mel's holding the purse☺☺ 

[LeedsCityRam]

On ‎09‎/‎02‎/‎2019 at 10:15, TigerTedd said:

All this talk of us being too 2 is very, very premature. I’m as optimistic as they come, but I’d be very pleased with top 6. I think that’s totally realistic though. We’ve had some difficult fixture runs this season, but now that’s going to pay dividends with some easier runs. The fact that we’re in touch after all that puts us in a great position in the pack, we’ve only got ourselves to blame now if we can’t go on a run and consolidate our position in the top 6. There is definitely a top 7 starting to break away, especially if everyone gets results with their games in hand, so someone is going to miss out. But it won’t be us. 

Now im mostly concerned about who will go up automatically, in terms of who we’ll avoid in the play offs. 

If we don’t win the playoffs, it’s still a great achievement this season for a rookie manager and a young squad. I’m very excited for next season either way. 

Spot on. 

That said, Lampard's post-match interview was interesting as he's clearly aiming for top 6 as a minimum but is still eyeing top 2 - it's a mark of a winner who not only aims higher than general expectations but publicly comes out & says that's his goal. His talk of 'run-ins' sounded a bit like the kind of interview he would have given as a Chelsea player chasing the title. By contrast, Daniel Farke over Christmas declared himself happy to get to 50 points as Norwich 'were now certain to avoid relegation'

Looking at our top 6 rivals, most are much further down the track in team development - Farke & Pulis have been in charge 18 months and Johnson & Wilder have been at Bristol City & Sheffield Utd for 3 years. The only exceptions are West Brom, who have a number of Premiership standard players still & Leeds, who admittedly have been far better than most would have predicted but are obviously reaping the benefit of hiring an excellent & experienced manager. We're outsiders in this race, I'd take 6th place right now.

[TigerTedd]

49 minutes ago, therealhantsram said:

Just thought I'd compare this season to last. Apart from the runaway leaders last season, the points to date for other positions is remarkably similar. Last season Fulham and Cardiff pushed each other all the way.  At this stage they had 55 and 52 points respectively (Fulham having played a game more).

It does seem to support the notion that both top two slots are absolutely up fro grabs this season and ANY of the top 7 could make a good run and finish in the top 2.

 

Using standard football fan logic, where a game in hand = guaranteed 3pts, imagine that table if all the games in hand were converted to 3pts. There would be 7pts from 1st to 7th, and 7pts from 7th to 8th. 

I reckon play offs and autos are all about the current top 7. One team is going to be proper gutted (and villa, stoke and forest, who probably still delusionally think they have a chance).

[TigerTedd]

14 minutes ago, LeedsCityRam said:

Spot on. 

That said, Lampard's post-match interview was interesting as he's clearly aiming for top 6 as a minimum but is still eyeing top 2 - it's a mark of a winner who not only aims higher than general expectations but publicly comes out & says that's his goal. His talk of 'run-ins' sounded a bit like the kind of interview he would have given as a Chelsea player chasing the title. By contrast, Daniel Farke over Christmas declared himself happy to get to 50 points as Norwich 'were now certain to avoid relegation'

Looking at our top 6 rivals, most are much further down the track in team development - Farke & Pulis have been in charge 18 months and Johnson & Wilder have been at Bristol City & Sheffield Utd for 3 years. The only exceptions are West Brom, who have a number of Premiership standard players still & Leeds, who admittedly have been far better than most would have predicted but are obviously reaping the benefit of hiring an excellent & experienced manager. We're outsiders in this race, I'd take 6th place right now.

Not safe yet. Ipswich can still get 71pts (if my maths are correct). Still all to play for. 

[plymouthram]

52 minutes ago, LeedsCityRam said:

 

Looking at our top 6 rivals, most are much further down the track in team development - Farke & Pulis have been in charge 18 months and Johnson & Wilder have been at Bristol City & Sheffield Utd for 3 years. The only exceptions are West Brom, who have a number of Premiership standard players still & Leeds, who admittedly have been far better than most would have predicted but are obviously reaping the benefit of hiring an excellent & experienced manager. We're outsiders in this race, I'd take 6th place right now.

We are outsiders? The bookies have us down 6th favourites. Take into consideration, any team in the top half of the table could string a run together (Bristol City currently). Its all about staying in contention, which we currently are. There will always be a side that falters getting into the last 2 months of the season. And before you state it, 'Derby' I do beleive lightening won't keep striking on us this time. If we beat Ipswich, Millwall and Forest in our next 3 league games, the top 2 will be looking over their shoulder knowing that we would still have a game in hand to play. After the Villa game which will be our 3rd out 4 matches away, providing we are out of the cup we will have 3 home matches on the bounce to play. So after the Stoke game on the 13th march, we will see where we stand then.

[RamNut]

I don't think its possible for us to flop like we did last season. What was it? 17 points from the last 15 games.

this year we should beat last seasons points total, and a repeat of 6th would be seen as success.

not sure that the fruit bats posting about finishing top 2 every time we win are really doing Frank any favours.

[plymouthram]

2 minutes ago, RamNut said:

I don't think its possible for us to flop like we did last season. What was it? 17 points from the last 15 games.

this year we should beat last seasons points total, and a repeat of 6th would be seen as success.

not sure that the fruit bats posting about finishing top 2 every time we win are really doing Frank any favours.

I don't think FL would be upset about fans expectations, he would support it. If you asked him in an interview, where he would like Derby to finish at the end of the season. Well he would'nt rule out the automatic spots.

[Jourdan]

Good, much needed win yesterday, but top 2 shouldn’t be in the discussion.

Leeds may only be 8 points clear (5 if we win in our game in hand) but there are teams that are better placed to capitalise.

Let’s be honest, we have given ourselves enough of a task to finish in the play-offs.

We are so inconsistent - I wouldn’t put it past us to go from beating Hull comfortably to letting rip a stinker against Ipswich in the very next game.

It’s going to take a big upturn for us to be troubling the top 2. We haven’t looked like top 2 material since October.

But credit to Frank and the boys if they can somehow manage it.

[europia]

On 08/02/2019 at 21:58, Tim Bucktoo said:

Shef Utd going top, Leeds down to third and we’re 10 points from the summit with 2 games in hand. 

There’s no way of calling this season’s final positions. 

I wish we could win 3 or 4 games in a row cos this season is wide open.

Dare you believe or are you too cautious to be excited? Beat Hull and I’m a believer ? Lose and I’m going home and taking my ball with me ?

Who is going up? Answers on a postcard please...

I think we have it all on just to secure that sixth spot with the form Bristol are in. 

[TigerTedd]

23 minutes ago, europia said:

I think we have it all on just to secure that sixth spot with the form Bristol are in. 

But they won’t be on that form forever. They’re on a run. Good on them. Runs don’t last forever. 

Someone has pointed out today that we’ve not been on a run yet, not strung so much as 3 wins together. 

So you for all our inconsistency, we must have been reasonably consistent throughout the season to be in the leading pack, having not had a run. 

You could also say, we’re due a run. And now we’ve got most of the difficult games (ie top 6) out of the way, the dominoes are lining up for us to have our run now, which would be fantastic timing for the run in. 

[Inglorius]

4 hours ago, RamNut said:

not sure that the fruit bats posting about finishing top 2 every time we win are really doing Frank any favours.

It's also not helpful on this forum too.

[Jourdan]

6 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

But they won’t be on that form forever. They’re on a run. Good on them. Runs don’t last forever. 

Someone has pointed out today that we’ve not been on a run yet, not strung so much as 3 wins together. 

So you for all our inconsistency, we must have been reasonably consistent throughout the season to be in the leading pack, having not had a run. 

You could also say, we’re due a run. And now we’ve got most of the difficult games (ie top 6) out of the way, the dominoes are lining up for us to have our run now, which would be fantastic timing for the run in. 

At home, we are pretty solid. We have drawn a few games we should have won, but at the same time, we’ve lost only twice at home all season. So the foundations for a good run are there, in a way.

But when our away form goes from the sublime to the ridiculous like it does, I don’t think anyone would be looking at us and thinking ‘They are shaping up for a good run here.’

We have lost 6 out of 15 away from home. Would you bet against us losing another 3-4 away from home?

We might win in midweek, but every time we go away from home, we are going to be worrying ‘Is this going to be another horror show like Leeds and Sheff Utd?’

I don’t think we are reliable enough to back for a winning run.

[Carl Sagan]

7 hours ago, therealhantsram said:

Just thought I'd compare this season to last. Apart from the runaway leaders last season, the points to date for other positions is remarkably similar. Last season Fulham and Cardiff pushed each other all the way.  At this stage they had 55 and 52 points respectively (Fulham having played a game more).

It does seem to support the notion that both top two slots are absolutely up fro grabs this season and ANY of the top 7 could make a good run and finish in the top 2.

 

Interesting in that the perception is that Fulham came from nowhere on a late run, but when you see this point last season they were already well up there and all of last season's top 5 at this point went on to either promotion or the playoffs. It was Bristol City who fell away to be supplanted by Middlesbro who at this stage were 4 points adrift. I said above that I hoped 87 points would be enough for autos, and it might, but last year Fulham missed out on 88 with Cardiff gaining second place with 90 points.