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Tim Bucktoo

Title Race

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59 minutes ago, FindernRam said:

Fivethiryeight.com have us finishing 7th effectively top7 as is. 12% prob of promotion. They reckon Norwich, Leeds, Sheff U. 

That must’ve taken some serious analysis to work out. Did they just look at the current table, and then predict the third places team will go up through the play offs. That’s genius.

One thing I can guarantee is that the table won’t look the same come May. 

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2 hours ago, 1977 Ram Raider said:

I’m concerned by brizzles latest form, is that now 8 wins on the spin!!!

Bristol's run should be the highlighted, because they have edged out teams who are in poor form or should have beaten. I would say their most impressive victory in their run was the 1-0 win against Blackburn in their last game.

They've beaten Rotherham, Bolton and Swansea at home. They've beaten Stoke, Forest and Blackburn away. Not including the cup games. Although, if you include the cup games that's six of those eight wins by a one goal margin. 

The reason I say this should be highlighted is because they're showing themselves to do enough against teams they should be beating/competing against. They will have to step it up again, though, because their run in is very tough: QPR (H), Norwich (A), Birmingham (H), Preston (A), Leeds (H), Ipswich (H), Millwall (A), Sheffield United (A), Middlesbrough (A), Wigan (H), West Brom (H), Aston Villa (A), Reading (H), Sheffield Wednesday (A), Derby (H) & Hull (A). 

They have eight of the current top 10 left to play, plus the likes of Preston, Millwall and Wednesday away from home who are difficult to beat at their own place - Preston and Wednesday have lost fewer home games than Norwich this season and Millwall the same amount. 

We, on the other hand, are about to go through a run of games like Bristol have just been through. Games where we should hold the competitive edge, where if we're focused then we should be able to grind out wins with the following left: Ipswich (A), Millwall (H), Wigan (H), Wednesday (H), Stoke (H), Rotherham (H), Bolton (H) & QPR (H)

Millwall, Wigan, Rotherham, Bolton & Stoke make up the five of the bottom eight teams away from home this season with Rotherham yet to win, Millwall & Wigan sporting only the one win and Bolton & Stoke with only the two each. We have one of the strongest home performances in the league, with only two losses, despite having these teams left to play. 

Regardless, even If we don't pick up any other points from the other EIGHT games which is highly unlikely then we will still finish on 74 points which could even be enough in itself. I personally think we will be close to the 80 point mark this season. If we can really focus, we are certainly the dark horse for the top two as we could close the gap to five points with our game in hand plus we have a really generous run in. We have been prone to slips in concentration this season though, so that would need to change to even stand half a chance. 

Edited by Ambitious

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4 hours ago, TigerTedd said:

How are Leeds still hanging on to a top 2 spot. Seems ages since they last won a game. And that was against us. 

if the teams behind win there game in hand they'll only be 4-5 points of 7th.  I feel a drop is coming .  Might even have a cheeky bet on them falling out of the play off spots.

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7 hours ago, erathirea said:

I think it's.... relatively... safe to assume that the top 6 will come from the current top 7, now.

The 4 point gap is only that because 4-7 have a game in hand. Derby's is the *easiest* of the games in hand at present (home to Millwall - West Brom have QPR away and Bristol City have to go to Boro).

 

I've said it before, and i'll say it again. February is *huge*.

 

Before the end of the month:

Derby have to play Ipswich (A), Millwall (H), Forest (A). I think most fans would be disappointed with anything less than 7 points, perhaps even anything less than 9 points, because who isn't disappointed when we don't beat Forest? I'm going to say 9 (because this is my head, dammit)

Bristol have QPR (H), Norwich (A), Birmingham (H). Can't see them picking up more than 4 points there. Reckon they'll lose at Norwich, and draw one of the others.

Boro have Sheff Utd (A), Blackburn (A), QPR (H). Maybe 5 points? Maybe 4? Don't see them winning either away game, but they could draw them both.

West Brom have 4 games this month. Forest (H), Villa (A), QPR (A), Sheff Utd (H). I mean, that's tricky (and at this point I'm thinking "crikey, Maclaren, you could do us a bit of a favour this month me ol' mucker". Something around 7-8 points would represent a *very* good return for them there (and i think that would include a win over United).

Sheffield have got Boro (H), Reading (H), and West Brom (A). I see 4 points there (beat Reading, draw with Boro)

Leeds have got Swansea (H), Bolton (H), QPR (A) - flipping heck, Steve - Leeds are unpredictable. Don't really know what to expect. They should beat Bolton, but going to QPR will be tricky, and Swansea at home could go either way. I'm going to (optimistically?) say 5 points.

Norwich have Preston (A), Bolton (A), Bristol City (H). 9 points is what I'm thinking here.

 

IF those go "as predicted":

Team: Played: Points:

Norwich 34 69

Leeds 34 63

WBA 34 61

Sheff Utd 34 59

Derby 33 59

Boro 33 56

Bristol 33 54

so we'd be 4 points of 2nd, with a game in hand (home to Wigan) over the 4 teams ahead of us 

Norwich go on to win the league, Derby end up playing West Brom on last day of the season with a winner takes 2nd spot stipulation.

Richard Keogh scores a 94th minute winner with a header from his own half, to go with his 88th minute winner against Chelsea in the FA Cup Final the following week.

 

The fact is that if we can pull in a good run starting at Ipswich second spot is not beyond us.Never going to make up the goal difference but if we win and don't lose it shouldn't matter.I think we have a real chance of promotion considering everyone's fixture list so it's really up to the lads to show they really want it.

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Looking at the fixtures this month would expect.worst scenario.

Derby play 3 ,6 points

Bristol play 3 ,7 points

Boro. Play 3 ,5 points

Brom play 4, 8 point 

Sheffield play 3 , 6 points

Leeds play 3 ,9 nine points

Norwich play 3, nine points

that would mean:

1 Norwich played 34.  69 Points

2 Leeds.                  34    67

3 Sheffield.              34    61

4 West Brom           34.   61

5 Bristol c.               33.   57

6 Middlesb.             33    56

7 Derby.                    33.  56

Assuming we win our game in hand (wigan) and that we drop 3 points in our next 3 games ( hope not ) in theory leaving us 2 points off Sheffield Utd 3rd and 8 points off 2nd Leeds scum.

looking at this worse case scenario, against other teams above us,but could easily have 2nd spot 5 points or less by end of the month.😆

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, FindernRam said:

Fivethiryeight.com have us finishing 7th effectively top7 as is. 12% prob of promotion. They reckon Norwich, Leeds, Sheff U. 

Experimental361 has us finishing 6th with a 4% chance of autos, but a 55% chance of autos or playoffs. According to them we're more likely to get automatic promotion than finish in the bottom half (3%). https://experimental361.com/2019/02/10/e-ratings-update-championship-10-feb-2019/ It'll be interesting to see how the chart evolves after a few more games.1383705802_20190211Experimental361finishingprobabilities.thumb.JPG.fdf4a21c096d11876cab0b3b3416f49d.JPG

 

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23 hours ago, Jourdan said:

At home, we are pretty solid. We have drawn a few games we should have won, but at the same time, we’ve lost only twice at home all season. So the foundations for a good run are there, in a way.

But when our away form goes from the sublime to the ridiculous like it does, I don’t think anyone would be looking at us and thinking ‘They are shaping up for a good run here.’

We have lost 6 out of 15 away from home. Would you bet against us losing another 3-4 away from home?

We might win in midweek, but every time we go away from home, we are going to be worrying ‘Is this going to be another horror show like Leeds and Sheff Utd?’

I don’t think we are reliable enough to back for a winning run.

Well summed up.

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Just now, lukedcfc said:

We really do have an easy run in on paper, I am optimistic about our chances. Norwich will win the league, second place is anyones.

Understand the sentiment but to trot out the old but very true cleche... There are NO easy games, no easy run in. 

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12 minutes ago, lukedcfc said:

We really do have an easy run in on paper, I am optimistic about our chances. Norwich will win the league, second place is anyones.

Yes, how could we possibly lose against the likes of Bolton, Rotherham and Millwall? 

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Many including me thought Leeds would walk the league and look what’s happened to them (though they’re still playing decent stuff despite losing). Norwich looking good as are Sheff U and Boro picking up...but it all can and will change again!! This is the championship!! 

We are right in the mix though and would definitely back us to make playoffs as a minimum. Ambrose will be good cover, already like the look of King, excellent cameo against Hull and can’t underestimate the experience Cole brings to the party. Even the way Frank is talking we must think about promotion when we eat, drink, and sleep!! Encouraging them to embrace it. Spot on, let’s face it as a footballer that’s what you’re in it for, the pressure games. Who says pressure is negative, it can be equally positive!!

COYR!!

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5 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

Experimental361 has us finishing 6th with a 4% chance of autos, but a 55% chance of autos or playoffs. According to them we're more likely to get automatic promotion than finish in the bottom half (3%). https://experimental361.com/2019/02/10/e-ratings-update-championship-10-feb-2019/ It'll be interesting to see how the chart evolves after a few more games.1383705802_20190211Experimental361finishingprobabilities.thumb.JPG.fdf4a21c096d11876cab0b3b3416f49d.JPG

 

Nice chart thingy. 😎

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Last two games are Bristol City and WBA. We are going to need 4 points. Mi imum from those two games. Stop letting daft goals in and take our chances. I think that we have a good chance of finishing 3rd but will need 10 games unbeaten to have any chance of autos with two games remaining. COYR

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