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Are we Overreacting?


erathirea

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Since the game last Friday, I've seen a few comments to the effect of disappointment, reminding ourselves this is a transition year, etc. etc.

 

But are we overreacting to one (admittedly poor) display? I would say yes.

 

In our last 4 games we've played 4 of the top 5, in our last 6 league games we've played 6 of the top 9.

 

4 games ago, we were 4 points clear of 7th. Now, after a *horrible* run of fixtures, we've got a 2 point gap to 7th, and 4 point gap to 8th (yes, there's a lot of teams at that, but whatever).

Now, look at our fixtures until the end of the season. We've got 10 home games remaining, and their average position is 16th.

We've got 9 away games, with the average position of ~13th.

Our next 6 games are against 22nd, 18th, 10th, 24th, 19th, 20th.

Other than West Brom (H), we've got no more games against the top 6. There's a few tricky trips (Villa, Forest, Bristol, Birmingham), but no games where we won't be hoping for a good result.

The season's not over yet, not by a long shot.

 

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10 minutes ago, erathirea said:

Since the game last Friday, I've seen a few comments to the effect of disappointment, reminding ourselves this is a transition year, etc. etc.

 

But are we overreacting to one (admittedly poor) display? I would say yes.

 

In our last 4 games we've played 4 of the top 5, in our last 6 league games we've played 6 of the top 9.

 

4 games ago, we were 4 points clear of 7th. Now, after a *horrible* run of fixtures, we've got a 2 point gap to 7th, and 4 point gap to 8th (yes, there's a lot of teams at that, but whatever).

Now, look at our fixtures until the end of the season. We've got 10 home games remaining, and their average position is 16th.

We've got 9 away games, with the average position of ~13th.

Our next 6 games are against 22nd, 18th, 10th, 24th, 19th, 20th.

Other than West Brom (H), we've got no more games against the top 6. There's a few tricky trips (Villa, Forest, Bristol, Birmingham), but no games where we won't be hoping for a good result.

The season's not over yet, not by a long shot.

 

Totally agree with this.

We are all under no illusion that there are any easy games in this league. Some of our worsed results have been against those teams to come.

But yes, on paper it shouldn't really be a problem.

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27 minutes ago, erathirea said:

Since the game last Friday, I've seen a few comments to the effect of disappointment, reminding ourselves this is a transition year, etc. etc.

 

But are we overreacting to one (admittedly poor) display? I would say yes.

 

In our last 4 games we've played 4 of the top 5, in our last 6 league games we've played 6 of the top 9.

 

4 games ago, we were 4 points clear of 7th. Now, after a *horrible* run of fixtures, we've got a 2 point gap to 7th, and 4 point gap to 8th (yes, there's a lot of teams at that, but whatever).

Now, look at our fixtures until the end of the season. We've got 10 home games remaining, and their average position is 16th.

We've got 9 away games, with the average position of ~13th.

Our next 6 games are against 22nd, 18th, 10th, 24th, 19th, 20th.

Other than West Brom (H), we've got no more games against the top 6. There's a few tricky trips (Villa, Forest, Bristol, Birmingham), but no games where we won't be hoping for a good result.

The season's not over yet, not by a long shot.

 

You must be new around here ?

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Long way to go yet agreed and we do have on paper easier games to come,its the manner in which we are playing is the concern not necessary the results,we are a million miles from the team that beat West Brom away and FL as become the new tinker man who still does not know his best 11.It worries me when we end up with Duane Holmes at full back when we have one on the bench to come on or as Bogle been pulled from the  starting 11 as according to the news we look like getting a decent bid for him.Like i said long way to go lets see how this all plays out

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I don't think anyone actually believes our season is over. The stats tell you it's clearly not, as does the favourable run in. People just like to vent and I'd rather people do it on here than at the ground. I think people have a few concerns and there have no doubt been a few disappointments in recent weeks, which have just as much right to be aired than the OTT we're going to win the league/Bogle is the new Cafu ones. 

@erathirea I think you're being pretty kind with the one bad performance remark but if you're a half a glass full guy/girl then fair doo's. The last proper performance I've felt good about was Birmingham at home on the 3rd of November. Swansea was for a large portion. The rest range from good 20 min spells here and there to below par smash and grabs to non-event defeats. They're my biggest disappointment at the moment, the league position looks fine. Turn our performances around and we'll be sound for a top 6 finish. Reading at home can't come soon enough for me. 

 

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Genuinely felt we would slip out of the top 6 with the run of games we had..... the fact we are still 6th gives a great chance to secure a play off place.  Won’t be easy but at the start of the season I would have been more than happy with where we are.  Need some luck avoiding more injuries but I say bring it on!! ?

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9 hours ago, B4ev6is said:

People are so bloody negative

The season is far far from over it is not over to last ball is kicked.

Unless, of course, the EFL dither and dither over the Leeds "punishment" until after the end of the season. THEN the season might not end until well AFTER the last ball is kicked.

But this is the EFL, they're known for taking decisive action, so I wouldn't worry too much...

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season far from over , top 6 and still in FAC, for me Franks doing an excellent job , i just wish we could offload a few more bits of deadwood to give him the chance to bring in a couple of loans to boost the areas where we are lacking cover , if not steering clear of injuries and maintaining fitness is going to be the biggest factor as the season goes on

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Totally totally agree with this. Fed up of seeing the Derby fans at work here being all doom and gloom over where they think we're going this season, especially as they are saying this in front of Forrest fans. 

Let's look at it -- we've been in a playoff position for several months now and deservedly so. Frank and the team have kept us up there and that is what we should be remembering. Yes there have been some poor performances in my eyes (thinking Leeds, Villa), but what I like is that there have already been games which have far outshone any of the games we played under Rowett. 

It genuinely feels positive. We have great youth prospects which we need to shout about more and I am looking forward to the rest of the year. 

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I don’t think so at all, it’s not just Fridays game but the season overall. We have lost 8 games already...that’s too many, It shows, we can’t afford to lose many more (1 or 2 max) if we want to get promoted but most importantly the championship this season is completely there for the taking. Any team up there that wins 6 games on the bounce in feb/match will win It.

we have a massive chance now, our run of fixtures now is really really easy, we have to be picking up maximum points for the rest of Jan and Feb. 

(having said that-I don’t want to get promoted)

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6 minutes ago, MuespachRam said:

I don’t think so at all, it’s not just Fridays game but the season overall. We have lost 8 games already...that’s too many, It shows, we can’t afford to lose many more (1 or 2 max) if we want to get promoted but most importantly the championship this season is completely there for the taking. Any team up there that wins 6 games on the bounce in feb/match will win It.

we have a massive chance now, our run of fixtures now is really really easy, we have to be picking up maximum points for the rest of Jan and Feb. 

(having said that-I don’t want to get promoted)

Sheff Utd have lost 7 and sat in 2nd place, if you look at Boro last season they managed to lose 14 games and finish top 6. 

Each season is different and as good as Leeds have been, no team appears to be running away with it so far, Sheff Utd are on a 4 win streak but lose on Saturday they could be back out the top 2, in fact they could be back down to 4th.

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Lampard has actually done better than I expected considering his inexperience, the sale of our top scorer and the injuries the team has had to contend with, specifically in defense. I was (and, to be honest, still am) Frank sceptic, though that’s more to do with my distaste for appointing managers with no experience of first team football. I do think his apparent inability to set the team up to break teams down has cost Derby this season (Millwall, Rotherham, Bolton away, Forest and Bristol City at home would all have been victories if managed by a more astute tactician in my opinion), and, even before the injuries, he has mishandled the defense badly - his apparent indifference to the team’s lack of clean sheets is a concern when Derby don’t really score enough goals to have such a cavalier attitude. Additionally, bar a six week period around the WBA, United and Chelsea games I don’t think the football played as been as good as some seem to think (though certainly better than Rowett-ball). However, despite those reservations I’m not particularly disappointed or underwhelmed about this season. Just a bit ‘meh’ in that i don’t see what many are so excited about because I know that as soon as Lampard does sort his kinks out and learn his trade he’ll be gone.

However, despite these asterisks I am slightly frustrated but not with Lampard so much as the situation. This division is absolutely there for the taking and even though I don’t think the current side is particularly good, an experienced manager like Bielsa would, I believe, have Derby in the top two rather than hovering in sixth with a slower decreasing gap between them and seventh. If I blame anyone though it’s Morris/Clement and there borderline insane transfer policy in 2015 which put the club back 5 years and it’s still feeling the effects of now.

I think any doom and gloom merchants are absolutely overreacting as things could be far worse (and I expected them to be). Personally, however, as always, they could be better if Morris has made better decisions over the past five years, and not particularly decisions which needed hindsight to be seen as misguided.

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We need to strengthen in this window. We at the very least need a centre half and I'm pretty amazed that we let Pearce go without anyone to replace him. That to me seems very risky and unnecessary.

If we don't add to the squad then Frank will have a tough job on to keep us in the top six. No blame will be attached to him if there's no money to add to the squad and if we do fail to make the playoffs I think Frank will leave citing lack of investment as the reason.

He cannot afford to take a hit to his reputation if he stays to manage an under-invested Derby team next term.

He needs to be seen as a winner and will not stay around, as I say, to have his reputation ruined.

So no investment and a poor second half to the season means no Lampard and no more marquee loan signings.

The next couple of weeks of the transfer window are key.

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