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Planning Ahead - the old "3 year" plan


erathirea

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We're half way through the season, and we're doing very well, I think, when you consider the changes that Frank is trying to implement over the course of this season.

The latest rumours on transfers (interest in Bryson, trying to get rid of Anya and Butterfield etc), the lack of contract offers to some of our... elder statesmen, and so forth, means that we're clearly looking to trim the squad (as we know), and bring down the age (as we also know).

Our plans for future seasons are, to an extent, going to be driven by how we do this season - Harry Wilson, for example, I could see being loaned back to us next year... but only if we get promoted.

I'm trying to look at what the squad may look like at the start of next season, and wondered about other people's opinions:

"Definitely" on the way out: (contract expiring, seemingly not in long term plans/no contract offered)

Alex Pearce, Marcus Olsson, Bradley Johnson, Joe Ledley, Jacob Butterfield, Craig Bryson, Nick Blackman, David Nugent

Possibly/Probably on the way out: (IMO, whether these guys stay or go will depend on 1. What division we're in next season and 2. Other transfers)

Tom Huddlestone (contract expires end of season)

George Thorne (this will depend on how he does at Luton)

Chris Martin (debatable, I know, but if we're letting Nugent go (as seems likely), and we don't get promoted, there's nothing wrong with having him on the books as we'll actually be low on strikers - also think he'll be hard to sell)

Ikechi Anya (yes, he still plays for us)

Craig Forsyth (18 months left on contract, and behind Lowe and Malone in pecking order)

Kelle Roos - at 26, and with contract expiring, and Mitchell on our books, I don't see why we'd keep him

Taking those people out the team, and (for now) ignoring the three loanees we currently have: our "first team" squad will be the following: (followed by age)

Scott Carson (33), Jonathan Mitchell (24)

Richard Keogh (32), Curtis Davies (33) 

Scott Malone (27), Max Lowe (21)

Andre Wisdom (25), Jayden Bogle (18)

George Evans (24), Duane Holmes (24), Timi Elsnik (20)

Florian Jozefzoon (27), Mason Bennett (22), Luke Thomas (19)

Tom Lawrence (24)

Martyn Waghorn (28), Jack Marriott (24)

 

All of a sudden, things are looking a bit thin.

There may be some players from the U23s ready to make the step up (being totally honest, I don't really follow the U23s), and, as previously mentioned, we'll still have Frank's connections to plug any obvious gaps... but without them, our first team at the start of next season could be

Carson

Bogle Keogh Davies Malone/Lowe

Evans

Holmes, Elsnik

Jozefzoon, Lawrence

Marriott

Not bad at championship level, if we're being fair and honest, but also worryingly thin, with a bench of Waghorn, Bennett, Wisdom, Thomas, Mitchell, Lowe +1

 

It's for this reason that I don't think we're necessarily going to be as "quiet" in this window as Frank is suggesting. Trimming the squad is important, but if we send 6-10 players out, I'll be amazed if we don't bring 3-4 in... even if that does incorporate loans.

Thoughts?

 

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I think Frank’s telling the truth about January being quiet, it’s a month where you can get shafted through desperation and I don’t think we are particularly desperate. A centre back and centre mid If Bryson leaves would be a quiet window.

The summer is when we will likely be most active, but as you say we may see U23s step up which saves us bringing players in.

Think it’s far too early to be looking at the line up for next season though, with 5 months of football to play, currently in the top 6 and promotion candidates, anything can happen.

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We’ve been waiting for this summer ever since our spending spree just to get them of the wage book and hopefully it’ll free Frank up to be able to bring in some better players than the ones leaving, going into summer with Carson, Wisdom, Keogh, Evans, Davies, Waghorn, Marriott etc is a good solid start with others like Bogle, Holmes, Lowe and Bennett getting another year under the belts is good! 

Carson, Mitchell 

Wisdom Bogle 

Keogh Davies New

Malone Fozzy Lowe

Evans ( new or Huddlestone )

Bird Holmes Elsnik new 

Josefzoon Bennett lawrence 

marriott Waghorn 

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I would say the big gap is midfield, and also a centre back. As has been mentioned a few times, our backup centre back is now Wisdom, which is... ok, but he's better as a full back. And that's including Tomori (because Davies is injured). And then our first choice, permanent, centre backs, are 32 and 33, which... isn't ideal.

In midfield, sure, the trio of Evans, Elsnik and Holmes seems okay, but there's not much cover. 

A winger, too. Actually, one on each side. I'm not a fan of Bennett, I just don't think his development has been as good as I would hope for someone who made their debut for us 6 years ago. He's never really made me sit up and take notice. Lawrence is a tricky one. He's important, and if we can get him playing at his best... well, then that's the left wing sorted, though he does need backup (and not a striker being played out of position). On the right, obviously Wilson is first choice, but we've no chance of him staying full term. If we could get him on loan again next season, that's less of an issue, but the backup left winger (to keep Lawrence on his toes) is important.

 

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Wasn't Frank saying he expected to be working with a first team squad of 23 to 24 players (or did I dream that up)?

Following the OP analysis above, even with all the potential departures we have 17 or so 1st team squad players.

Maybe add a couple of seasoned pros in selected positions (those mentioned by other posters seem sensible enough), a couple more loans and a couple more to step up from the U23s and we're about there.

Beyond an Ampadu type loan i don't see us trying for anything incoming this window personally.

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Some reasonable points made and we literally are in a transition season however we look at it but in terms of this January ending we will then know how we are looking 

yes we need a defensive cover yes we need a mobile quality central midfielder (not easy that one) and for me we need another good quality centre forward ( I really don’t think waghorn is a centre forward ) next season could Martin feature? Who knows but I still think we could have used him this season

at the end of the day whoever leaves will need to be replaced by someone better if we are to improve which is not easy especially when we compete with half the league who receiving parachute payments.

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No doubt there's alot to do. 

Saw the Bryson link yesterday and I think it's a sensible move for everyone as long as we signed a permanent replacement this month. A loan deal wouldn't be wise considering our midfield is currently carried by two players who aren't our own already or at the start of next season we go from replacing the two of them to a half a side. 

I think it'd be wise to extend Huddlestones deal. 

I was under the impression that Davies was also out of contract come the end of the season? 

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1 minute ago, 86 points said:

Fozzy third choice? Reckon he'd be playing plenty were he not crocked. Derby's #1 LB for me. 

Yep.

Give it another 2 months and he'll regularly be referred to on here as "one of the best left backs in the Championship". ?

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1 minute ago, Carnero said:

Yep.

Give it another 2 months and he'll regularly be referred to on here as "one of the best left backs in the Championship". ?

Cheeky! Anyway, from my perspective, that'd be because when fit and in form, he is. Sadly I'd be amazed to see him back in the starting 11. Like Thorne, if he had no bad luck he'd have had none at all. 

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2 minutes ago, 86 points said:

Cheeky! Anyway, from my perspective, that'd be because when fit and in form, he is. Sadly I'd be amazed to see him back in the starting 11. Like Thorne, if he had no bad luck he'd have had none at all. 

I was being serious, I'm a Fozzy fan!

I've just noticed that the longer a player is out of a team, whatever the sport, the better they become according to the masses.

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I’d rather stick with what we have for Jan, you get shafted on fees and our history isn’t great for Jan transfers either... we are set for a complete overhaul of the entire squad though and I’m personally already looking for the season after next. Give Lampard the time to do his thing, get rid of everyone that’s no use in the summer, rebuild next season, enjoy title winning season 2020/2021.  

Also I didn’t realise Blackman still played for us!

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10 hours ago, Carnero said:

I was being serious, I'm a Fozzy fan!

I've just noticed that the longer a player is out of a team, whatever the sport, the better they become according to the masses.

You have only just noticed this? Welcome to the internet, glad you could join us.

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