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Carl Sagan

Perhaps we're not as good as we think? Yes it's XG

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16 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

Interesting take. Also Keogh missed from the corner from a foot out but apparently that was also less than half an expected goal! The Wilson shot for the corner and then Keogh's chance together only make half?

Someone (sorry I can't go back through the thread from here) also did a good analysis saying we're taking much more long shots than most teams, which is why our XG is lower. I'm delighted we are finally shooting from distance, and it's clearly no accident we're doing that with Frank, who was famous for it. And Wilson, Mount, Lawrence, Huddlestone, Waghorn and Johnson all have excellent long-shot ability so it's not luck - Harry Wilson's last four goals all coming from outside the box, for instance.

I fully believe that XG is an interesting measure - I think the fact that generally the actual goals scored are higher than the XG is that strikers are better than we give credit for (I wonder whether they use the average players chances of scoring from that position and then strikers are better than average?) - But it's obviously not perfect as shown by a league table where the vast majority are projected to concede more than they score

I object to Huddlestone being in that group - I have a long standing love for Tommy but his shooting is still woeful for someone with such an accurate pass - His long shot against B'ham at the weekend was dire 😄

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2 hours ago, coneheadjohn said:

My eyes tell me it’s good too watch and it’s putting a smile on our faces,all the rest is meaningless.

You are totally correct, but its always nice when (pseudo) science confirms what you already know!

I love being told I'm right, but being long term married it doesn't happen often!

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3 hours ago, thederbyram said:

I would love to see a game by game xG progression for Derby this season, to see if there's an as-impressive upwards trend matching what we're actually seeing on the pitch.

Here you go:

image.png.b0e31c47085416a9323e14085041c66b.png
Maybe not quite as clear a trend as you'd imagine, but there's definitely one there.  

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You are right. My friend Excel says on a linear trend we will have an XG of 2.8 by season end.  An exponential fit (which has a similar "fit value") shows 5.2.

image.png.30f60d500ae818484b09ff04fc1131d4.png

 

Oh Yeah! I like XG!😁

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20 hours ago, ram59 said:

This is the most important table

Championship

6 May 2019

pos    team                    pl      pts

1        Derby                  46      92

2         Meh...……………………………..

3         Meh...……………………………..

 

That's the one I want to see.🤞

I very much doubt that Meh will finish 2nd and 3rd 

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6 hours ago, duncanjwitham said:

Here you go:

image.png.b0e31c47085416a9323e14085041c66b.png
Maybe not quite as clear a trend as you'd imagine, but there's definitely one there.  

Ahh brilliant! So generally instead of loitering around the 0.6-1.0 mark (up to Rotherham) we're roughly hovering at 1.5 since with a bigger variation? I like that. Sky won't have picked up on that in their original analysis I'm sure..

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Surely the fact that actual performance and results demonstrate conclusively that the so-called XG system is so inherently flawed as to be about as viable as the Horace Bachelor infra draw method of winning the pools.

I’ll repeat that, that’s Keynsham spelt RUBBISH!

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18 hours ago, steve brummie said:

Surely the fact that actual performance and results demonstrate conclusively that the so-called XG system is so inherently flawed as to be about as viable as the Horace Bachelor infra draw method of winning the pools.

I’ll repeat that, that’s Keynsham spelt RUBBISH!

Oh that brings back so many memories:

Hiding under the bed clothes illicitly listening to Radio Luxembourg on a tiny trannie with about 40 foot of copper wire wound round the attic to get a signal. My dad went berserk when he found the hole in the ceiling.

Infradraw was a very sound system to make money--For Harold Batchelor. 

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