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Carl Sagan

Perhaps we're not as good as we think? Yes it's XG

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I have never understood the expected goals garbage. 

When I was a young lad going out drinking I expected to cop off every night. So I can happily say my expected number of girls I copped off with is circa 1000. 

The actual number mind is much much much lower.

But thanks to expected stats garbage i'll go with the higher figure now. Result!

 

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2 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

Fair enough but, makes you wonder how managers used to cope with assessing their teams performance and that of individuals in the past (I'd love to know what Brian Clough would have to say about this). You'd like to think a decent management team can see for themselves whether their team are creating (and scoring) enough chances and whether an individual seems to be off the pace recently.

Also, as you say, they should only be used as indicators (not for journalists to be suggesting team A should be above team B simply because they have a better XG ratio). 

It's pretty simple - we can just do it better now than they did.  A managers job is all about making decisions (who to pick, who to buy, how to set the team up etc), and if they are able to have more information available to base those decisions on, then it's borderline criminal if they don't make use of it.  Plus it's pretty much an arms race - every other manager is potentially using these stats to inform his decisions, so you have to.  Brian Clough wasn't up against a league filled with managers using data analysts and sports scientists, he was using the same level of info as everyone else.

There are 11 players on the pitch for 90+ minutes - that's potentially 16.5+hours of individual performances to watch - there's no way a manager can re-watch all of that for every game, when we're playing Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday, on top of all of his other duties. If he can sit down and re-watch the game a couple of times with a checklist of all of the things that the stats have highlighted might be of interest, it's a much better use of their time.

And for what it's worth, the xG table that was posted mid-season last season was proven correct - we were overachieving based on scoring and conceding at freakishly high and low rates.  When those rates drifted back to normal, we started dropping down the table, and only a change of system late on turned it around.

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16 minutes ago, Paul71 said:

I have never understood the expected goals garbage. 

When I was a young lad going out drinking I expected to cop off every night. So I can happily say my expected number of girls I copped off with is circa 1000.

Not quite - it's based on the key indicators, like  - did I actually talk to any girls, did any of them let me buy them a drink, did I get on really well with any of them etc

if you expected to cop off but stood in the corner all night and didn't even look at anyone then xCO is very low

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We've only just started clicking in the last couple of months, maybe even since the last international break. I expect that score to get better over the season. We are now scoring goals and conceding less. That sounds good to me

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35 minutes ago, StivePesley said:

Not quite - it's based on the key indicators, like  - did I actually talk to any girls, did any of them let me buy them a drink, did I get on really well with any of them etc

if you expected to cop off but stood in the corner all night and didn't even look at anyone then xCO is very low

Now you tell me.

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The stat isn't surprising at all. We've only just begun to play how Frank wants us to play these past couple of weeks. It bodes extremely well for the rest of the season considering we're where we currently are despite not peaking yet. Means we can get results even without playing well.

It's only after Bryso got injured against Sheffield United that we finally started playing our best team. Our front 6 of Marriott, Lawrence, Waghorn, Wilson, Mount & Huddlestone have barely played together. Huge difference to when Bradley Johnson, Mason Bennett, Jozefzoon, Nugent etc were all regulars.

Only Mason Mount has been a regular all season out of all of them & even he's was forced to miss Birmingham & the 2nd half against Boro.

Marriott: Needed time to adjust to the team/league & has only made 5 starts all season. Hottest striker in the League at the moment.

Waghorn: Another one that needed time to adjust. Finally started showing his real quality these past couple of weeks but has gone down yet again

Wilson: Probably the best player in the League on current form. Just the 9 starts in the League & only just recently deployed centrally where he looks fantastic.

Lawrence: Looks a completely different player in recent weeks. So much more smarter & intelligent with & without the ball now. Playing a team oriented game now. Hasn't been available all season either.

Huddlestone: Arguably our most important player. Completely dominates game & is thriving with the youthful energy around him. Backbone of the system.

Edited by Gil

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Statistics freaks may want to look at fivethirtyeight.com for a different way of predicting these things. 

Strange thing is that nearly all these form predictors seem to forecast a narrower spread of points over the season for the top and bottom teams  i.e Less points to win the league or get promoted but more points than usual will still see you demoted.

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2 hours ago, Spanish said:

 

2017-18_xg_table_for_article.jpg

Just for clarity, lets compare this with the table @Carl Sagan posted midway through that season: 
image.png.751ed1a0ce7b3dbaf8e8e6e2b5057295.png

 

The mid-season xG table is about as different from the end-of-season xG table as either xG table is from the real table.

 

Ergo, I conclude that its pointless information.

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