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dan_ram1

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I agree with what most have said with regards to injuries in previous seasons and my major concern is a couple of injuries to the defence as soaking up large amounts of pressure is key to the way we play. 

I guess all we can do is enjoy the ride and I'm sure being Derby, it will be very bumpy.

I promise all my posts wont contain charts :) but below just in case anyone is interested, the top 2 teams each year.

image.png.e91933cc6fbf3b090bb38c65c410b8c8.png

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I didn't appreciate just how well Paul Clement did in the first half of 2015-16

Its also quite shocking to see how good our defence was in the first half of 15-16 and 16-17 . Shows the improvement that shackell brought under PC.

i wonder to what extent fatigue was the factor in the collapse.

Will our OAP legs go towards the end of this season? 

Perhaps it helps that russell, weimann, lawrence, vydra and winnall aren't quite so ancient.

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It is noticeable each year that there is usually that team that runs away with the league ala Wolves. Who by mid season are far enough ahead to at least sustain the second place auto slot even if they do have a slump.

There is also that team who also go on a big burst and end up at or near the top who then fall away rapidly as seems to be the case with Sheffield utd. (The remainder of the season will show whether this is true).

There is also that team who sits just behind the top six and slowly claw themselves into the top 6 at the right time in a good vein of form.

Then there are your Derby's. There or there abouts especially during the first half of the season. However I feel we have a much more cohesive team and strength in depth throughout the team.

Fingers crossed this is our time.

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When asked this question in his first interview, CJ said that the difference between promotion or not, depends

on how quickly a team responds to a setback. No team can win every match, so confidence, experience and discipline

are the answer, and we seem to have this in abundance.

so very confident that we are realistically fighting for that 2nd auto place, along with 3/4 other teams.

Think it's ours to lose/win.

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On 15/01/2018 at 15:49, Kernow said:

Our defence looks like an entirely different unit this year. We're more organised, more experienced and we make far less silly mistakes. Defending set-pieces no longer gives me a heart attack and if we hold a slender lead going in to the last five minutes, I no longer have to follow the end of games sat on the toilet.

We've conceded 23 goals in 27 games. 11 of those goals have come in three individual games vs Sheff Utd, Bristol City and Reading. That means in the remaining 24 games, we've conceded 12. Of course there will be a couple of outliers in terms of goals conceded, but if that rate continues of a goal every two games, we'd finish the season letting in around 9 or 10 more goals. That would be seriously, seriously impressive.

Except against Ipswich. 

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Will be an interesting second half to the season.

We beat Leeds, Boro andNorwich away as well as Villa at home.

To stand a chance of top 2 we need the same sort of form against these big sides.

Rowett thankfully seems to have found a way to beat any side, which is why i look forward to the Wolves game more than any other.

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6 hours ago, MackworthRamIsGod said:

Will be an interesting second half to the season.

We beat Leeds, Boro andNorwich away as well as Villa at home.

To stand a chance of top 2 we need the same sort of form against these big sides.

Rowett thankfully seems to have found a way to beat any side, which is why i look forward to the Wolves game more than any other.

Well we have 52 points with 19 games to go . If we target say 85 points thats 11 more wins, so we could lose 8 more games. More likely we will drop points by drawing a few, but you could see 11 wins without necessarily beating any more top teams. Burton, Bolton, QPR, Sunderland and the like.   

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We could help ourselves by taking more points off our rivals. That’s 10 points dropped from 12 against both Sheff U and Bristol. 

If we beat Cardiff, Fulham, Boro, Brentford and Leeds at home and get something at Wolves and Villa we should be home and dry. 

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On 15/01/2018 at 13:27, dan_ram1 said:

First time poster but long time reader. Apologies if this has been posted before but I thought it was an interesting topic.

I have read a lot recently regarding how Derby fall away in the second half of the season, so I decided to look into the points, goals for and goals against for the past 6 1/2 years (to include Clough).

Points gained

image.png.c6ff004122d9dd34e97c90477899d374.png

 

Goals For

image.png.59823dff4b4c27411e28b16e3bca2b7e.png

 

Goals Against

image.png.a6560f8dbecdcb978d7b31089d260275.png

The above tells me that it is clear for the past few years we have fallen away in the 2nd half of the year (13/14 wasn't that bad?). What I didn't think about until I saw the above is just the number of goals we seem to give away in the 2nd half of the year. If our defence can stay as strong as it has been since the Bristol game then I think we stand a really good chance.

Very good mate,in fact probably to impressive as a first post.

People usually start by saying how rubbish we are?

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to get the autos we need wins not draws.

Slightly concerned about the three draws.

if we'd won one and lost two people might be more concerned however in the last 6 games we gained

+1 point on wolves

+8 points on cardiff (still playing sheff wed)

+7 points on bristol

+3 points on sheff utd

+5 points on Leeds

-1 on villa

-4 on fulham

2 home wins would have cracked it.

 

 

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