First 23 v Last 23

[dan_ram1]

First time poster but long time reader. Apologies if this has been posted before but I thought it was an interesting topic.

I have read a lot recently regarding how Derby fall away in the second half of the season, so I decided to look into the points, goals for and goals against for the past 6 1/2 years (to include Clough).

Points gained

 

Goals For

 

Goals Against

The above tells me that it is clear for the past few years we have fallen away in the 2nd half of the year (13/14 wasn't that bad?). What I didn't think about until I saw the above is just the number of goals we seem to give away in the 2nd half of the year. If our defence can stay as strong as it has been since the Bristol game then I think we stand a really good chance.

[Guest]

Interesting reading.

Could point to fitness issues but I think more down to injuries.

[archied]

Like most derby fans I’ve been scarred by recent great position crumbles and there’s that nervous fear we will do it again but I think for me there’s a feeling that it could be different this time as we are built on a platform of being very hard to beat and that in return is built on the whole team working very hard as a unit to defend from the front and all over the park ,this is now starting to show positives in terms of keeping good continuity even when changing personnel ,,, I’m hoping ( and believe ) that stands us in better stead to stop normal injuries or results wobbles turning into total collapse,,,,, please please please

[RamLad1884]

Think it would take a real mess of injuries to see that kind of fall again. Even then I'd say we've got two solid players for every position. Only concern would be if we lost another midfielder or maybe Carson? 

Rowett has already said he's looking towards midfield this month so generally things are looking good 

[SaintRam]

35 goals against in the second half of last season. Oof.

 

For some reference, 10 of the bottom 12 this season have conceded 35 or more. In the top half, only Brentford (11th) have conceded 35. That's after 27 games. 

[ram1964]

Great first post ,interesting stats however believe depth and quality of squad discipline installed we should continue with our present form.

[jagerbob]

Even with a dip in form, we aint gonna suddenly miss out on the top 6.   In 2015/16 we had the form of a bottom 3 side the last 3 months or so.

Thats what it would take for us to miss out. Just not gonna happen. We had a collosal run, running up to the reading defeat... and then we just stated another equally good run. I dont see us cathing Wolves whatever Rowett says, but can see us now making a real push for 2nd. Cardiff had an amazing start, and in the last 19 games or so (since Bristol City) we have been way more consistant than Cardiff.
I was worried Bristol City would out last us, but their cup runs have definately effected their league form, to our advantage. Villa defeat and the home defeat against Norwich was because they were just too worn out. Still got another leg at Man City to come too. I just think their young team is more naive than our lot, with the mistakes they make (in terms of game management), and Johnson is perhaps less mindful than say Rowett would be on how to manage this. Still getting this close to Wembley, and playing so well against the top 2 in the Premier League must still be satisfying for them.

[Kernow]

Our defence looks like an entirely different unit this year. We're more organised, more experienced and we make far less silly mistakes. Defending set-pieces no longer gives me a heart attack and if we hold a slender lead going in to the last five minutes, I no longer have to follow the end of games sat on the toilet.

We've conceded 23 goals in 27 games. 11 of those goals have come in three individual games vs Sheff Utd, Bristol City and Reading. That means in the remaining 24 games, we've conceded 12. Of course there will be a couple of outliers in terms of goals conceded, but if that rate continues of a goal every two games, we'd finish the season letting in around 9 or 10 more goals. That would be seriously, seriously impressive.

[Sparkle]

2 minutes ago, Kernow said:

Our defence looks like an entirely different unit this year. We're more organised, more experienced and we make far less silly mistakes. Defending set-pieces no longer gives me a heart attack and if we hold a slender lead going in to the last five minutes, I no longer have to follow the end of games sat on the toilet.

We've conceded 23 goals in 27 games. 11 of those goals have come in three individual games vs Sheff Utd, Bristol City and Reading. That means in the remaining 24 games, we've conceded 12. Of course there will be a couple of outliers in terms of goals conceded, but if that rate continues of a goal every two games, we'd finish the season letting in around 9 or 10 more goals. That would be seriously, seriously impressive.

Three key factors - two tall experienced defensive midfielders in front of the back four and Forsyth back defending at left back and a real defenders at right back oh and Curtis Davies knows what he is doing - if they start scoring for us at set pieces it would be nice also ( one for Davies and one for ledley ) 

[Rampage]

We could have spent £8 million on Davies and no one could complain that he had not  done enough to get us promotion.

Loss of Christie has stopped wingers bursting down his wing and causing havoc. This looks like a thing of the past.

Before Rowett, when teams broke through our midfield, our midfield stood and watched while the opposition had a shot on goal. This process has ended.

Now if we lose the ball in midfield, you can expect to be tackled once or twice before you get far. In any case you are slowed down until there are none of your players in acres of space to pass to.

In short, we have stopped teams breaking away from us and our breakaways always seem dangerous. Teams know that if they get caught with too many players upfield then they are likely to lose a goal.

Having Winnall as a bull in a china shop means that you cannot just leave one guy up against him. He ties defenders up. This helps a lot!!!

Martin should change his style of play to fit the team. There is no room for a prima donna. Also if you get a clear cut chance, put it in the net, that is why you are here. I would not let Martin go out on loan, more use as back up here. if we get a good fee, then buy a better player on less wages.

What is the worst thing that can happen with FFP? Has any team paid any penalty yet?

Beat Bristol City, Cardiff and draw against Villa and we will be automatically promoted.

This team is getting MORE AND MORE PROFICIENT at not losing games, only bad long term injuries can stop this military style of organisation.

Curtis Davies, an unsung hero, summed it up when he said that if we let in a goal that we need to be very unhappy about it, We need to see what went wrong, make sure that it does not happen again and get back to keeping clean sheets. Amazing statement that makes it clear that this squad means to get promoted. Did anyone ever settle in better than Curtis and become so reliable, so quickly?

COYR

[Carl Sagan]

Great first post @dan_ram1. The stark stats show what a long way there is to go and how much things can change. All our rivals are clinging to these numbers and hoping that we will, once again, fall away. I think the next few games are going to prove incredibly important to demonstrate our resolve (or lack of it). My recollection is that in previous seasons we were good chasing, but unable to cope with the pressure of being favourites. That's something Rowett commented on early on this season.

We're miles off top but we are favourites to get promotion and even odds-on favourites with the majority of bookmakers. I hope and believe the new steel added to the team means we'll relish the tag rather than shrink from it, but only time will tell. Saturday was an important test we passed with flying colours. Friday is another one.

[BondJovi]

There will be a blip, but I think we will respond far better now than previously. There just seems a will within the team to not be beaten, something we have missed for a long while.

[Gritstone Ram]

Looking at the stats if we have a better last 23 than the first this season we have nailed it.

[Rampage]

Legendary first post, dan_ram1, take a bow my friend.

[Tamworthram]

3 hours ago, RamLad1884 said:

Think it would take a real mess of injuries to see that kind of fall again. Even then I'd say we've got two solid players for every position. Only concern would be if we lost another midfielder or maybe Carson? 

Rowett has already said he's looking towards midfield this month so generally things are looking good 

Keogh getting injured would be another big blow. Davies has certainly helped improve our defensive unit but neither him or Pearce has the passing ability (for which Keogh doesn't get enough credit) or desire/ability to bring the ball forward when there is no pass on. 

[Cam the Ram]

Thankfully it finally looks like we have the depth to cope with injuries to certain areas of the team (although I would be terrified if Keogh, Davies or Carson picked up a lengthy injury). We had the defensive mid problems one season, Martin's injury another and left back injuries galore as well. I don't know about everyone else, but I'd still feel confident in winning games even with a few regulars missing

[OohMartWright]

2 minutes ago, Cam the Ram said:

Thankfully it finally looks like we have the depth to cope with injuries to certain areas of the team (although I would be terrified if Keogh, Davies or Carson picked up a lengthy injury). We had the defensive mid problems one season, Martin's injury another and left back injuries galore as well. I don't know about everyone else, but I'd still feel confident in winning games even with a few regulars missing

I think the key is that THE TEAM would still feel confident in winning games even with a few regulars missing. It's that belief that has left us in previous years leading to nervy displays and errors which perpetuated a downward spiral of more nerves and more errors.

 

[Cam the Ram]

1 minute ago, OohMartWright said:

I think the key is that THE TEAM would still feel confident in winning games even with a few regulars missing. It's that belief that has left us in previous years leading to nervy displays and errors which perpetuated a downward spiral of more nerves and more errors.

 

True. The main worry is that after Keogh went off injured against Reading it seemed we lost all belief then, so fingers crossed he can remain fit for the entire season

[King Kevin]

10 minutes ago, Cam the Ram said:

Thankfully it finally looks like we have the depth to cope with injuries to certain areas of the team (although I would be terrified if Keogh, Davies or Carson picked up a lengthy injury). We had the defensive mid problems one season, Martin's injury another and left back injuries galore as well. I don't know about everyone else, but I'd still feel confident in winning games even with a few regulars missing

Whilst I agree 100% ,we have  Andre to slot in at center half and Chris Baird to play full back .Still a great back four.

[OohMartWright]

2 minutes ago, Cam the Ram said:

True. The main worry is that after Keogh went off injured against Reading it seemed we lost all belief then, so fingers crossed he can remain fit for the entire season

It was unfortunate that Ledley was missing for that game so there was a sort of "Double whammy" which compounded the problem, but I certainly share your hope that Keogh can remain fit for the entire season.